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March 22, 2012

Comments

kevin

Tomi,
Your peer, Chetan Sharma, seems to have fully grasped what's happening to mobile, and the importance in this next era of the ecosystem, including the tablet and cloud, thereby giving Windows 8 a fighting chance. See the first few slides at http://www.chetansharma.com/USmarketupdate2011.htm

I haven't jumped into this discussion, because I don't think Microsoft has any vision. So even though Windows 8 probably has the best chance of the other ecosystems to take 3rd place (and even 2nd place, if everything breaks right for it, and badly for Android (patent, copyright, fragmented ecosystem, profitless for mfrs)), I have doubts that MS can execute at mobile OS speeds (vs desktop OS speeds), and go to where the puck is going next.

SoVatar

@Kevin,
I haven't heard from Chetan Sharma before, but I have a problem with someone that puts the following sentence on top of his summary:

"The US market generated $67 billion in mobile data revenues in 2011 accounting for 39% of the overall revenues for the country."

It is simply not understandable what he means, $67 billion are 39% of what?

Once a guy starts that sloppy using numbers, I have a hard time to read on, and I did not. Maybe he has something to say, maybe not.

I'd also say that Microsoft does have a vision where they wanna be in the mobile space. But so far they have for certain no clue how to get there if not by pouring money and backstabbing "partners" on their way.

cycnus

about rovio

my wild guess would be, the new angry bird is hardware accelerated OPEN GL apps. And at first Rovio didn't want to port to WP7 because WP7 use direct-X, and it would be a lot of work. But MM (Microsoft Money) talk.... so, rovio were bitch slapped by MS with lots of $$$$.

kevin

@SoVatar: Tomi has mentioned Chetan Sharma several times before. It's unfortunate that the first sentence is garbled like that; I noticed it too and tried out several possibilities in trying to answer 39% of what, but to no avail. So it's poor editing on the web; we've seen that many times before, even here.

Microsoft is just doing what Apple is already doing, so that's not vision. They think they have an advantage over Apple because they already "own" over 90% of the PC space. Since current Windows apps won't be able to run on Windows-on-ARM tablets, I think the advantage will be replaced with confusion and disappointment. So I don't think MS knows what comes after the ecosystem play.

kevin

Looking at it again, I'm sure it's comparing mobile data revenue vs all mobile revenue (telecom) for the US. In which case the sentence makes sense as is, although it could be rewritten to make it more obvious.

SoVatar

@ Kevin,
thanks for trying to explain what Chetan means. What you are writing makes sense, but then the engineer in me would ask to define "all mobile revenue (telcom)". Is it what we pay the carriers for voice, data, other services and devices? Are mobile devices purchased via third parties like Amazon included or excluded? What about apps purchase via app-stores? I guess there is a good definition, but I did not see in mentioned.

Re Micrsooft vision I think we agree. I understand you are arguing that MS does not have one and will fail, I am saying that MS has one, but a delusional one.

I am sure some posters here will preach something different, they will argue away the total failure of MS in mobile, and especially the total failure that WP7 is. They will argue with "ecosystem", without defining in clear terms what they mean.

I learned in school an "ecosystem" is a biological system including all living organism in a particular area. When I hear "ecosystem" I immediately picture a frog in a pond, and the stark coming closer in the background.

kevin

@SoVatar: Good imagery and good question. What is an ecosystem, but first more importantly, why?

Apple is convinced that consumers will have multiple communicating/computing/entertaining devices for use on the move (phones, tablet, laptop) and at home (PC, TV), and will want to create/buy/access/consume/share content on any of their devices at any time. That is what makes their (multiple) devices incredibly useful. An ecosystem enables this to happen in a simple-to-understand way. Note that Google, Microsoft, Nokia, Samsung, RIM, HTC, and Amazon believe they have to do the same thing as Apple to compete (outside of just cost), though each has chosen different methods to get there.

At a minimum, an ecosystem now includes:
1. stores (iTunes) to allow consumers to acquire commercial digital content/services (movies, music, books, games, apps, podcasts, etc);
2. data stores (iCloud) to allow consumers to access digital content they’ve created (photos, docs, mail, texts, tweets, etc) [I think iCloud will someday allow shared access to non-commercial content created by your friends and family];
3. intelligent filters (Siri) to allow consumers to easily and quickly find relevant information (i.e., in their cloud, on the Web, etc);
4. secure payment system to allow consumers to easily buy digital content/services or anything else (including non-digital items from brick-and-mortar stores) from their devices. (Apple is still trying out different ways of doing this, while trying to get some sort of global standard set up.)
5. communications pipes (cellular, wifi, wired).
6. devices (iPhone, iPad, iPod touch, AppleTV, Macs). In the Apple, RIM, and Samsung Bada ecosystems, devices are provided by only them for their ecosystem. In other ecosystems, devices are provided by many vendors.
7. device peripherals like cases, extended batteries, etc.

Just like the biological ecosystem, all the entities (handset/OS makers, commercial content providers, information providers, services providers, telecom operators, peripheral makers, etc) are dependent to a degree (some more, some less) on one another for survival (profit), but at the same time, competing against each other for a greater share of the consumers spending.

An ecosystem can also be seen as a platform from the developers’ and OS provider’s point of view. The OS provider tries to maintain a common platform owned by a large number of customers, so that developers/providers have a large base to which to sell their content/services (and make a profit). The OS provider has to work to enable other providers to survive – for Android and Windows Phone, that includes the handset makers.

It's no longer just about phones and telecom operators at the higher-end, innovating, profitable portion of the phone market. There are lots of other entities/pieces that are needed to make the phones more useful.

That's my understanding. Hope that helps.

cycnus

@Kevin
(first, forgive me english, me english is bad).

I think when Elop talk about Ecosystem, he meant that beccause Symbian only available for phone, therefore it's weak.

Example:
* a user of iphone after using it a while, might be tempted to buy apple tv, ipad and also iMac.
* a user of WP7 after using it a while, might be tempted to buy PC computer, and so on...
* and also, a user of windows 8 PC, might choose WP8 because the interface were familiar.

That's what's elop is talking.
if nokia have all microsoft windows product, than Nokia could TRAP the user inside their ecosystem.

.... In which this thinking were flawed.....
* Many of us here use Symbian/Android/iOS with Microsoft Windows PC but don't think to upgrade to WP7.
* I use Linux PC, but when motorola introduce their linux phone, I never want it. (I want symbian for my phone, and linux/ubuntu for my PC).
* Many iphone user were using Windows PC.
* If you drive BMW, would you buy a clothing by BMW instead of other?
* and so on.....

Scott Deagan

I agree with this article - Elop is a cancer that is destroying Nokia. It's obvious which corporation he's acting in the best interests of.

Fools.... FOOLS!!!

Andy

I downloaded the Qt SDK in preparation for the Raspberry Pi. I was so impressed with Qt that I decided to purchase a Nokia N9 (I already own a Galaxy S2, iPhone 4 and LG E906 WP7.5).

Firstly, WP7.5 just "doesn't cut the mustard". Microsoft are claiming they have lifted XNA's limited 30FPS to 60FPS, but I have yet to experience this, and couldn't produce a simple 60FPS animation using the Visual Studio dev tools and XNA. It's jerky and stuttery - far from smooth to the discernible eye. Since others have mentioned Rovio in the comments above - here's a challenge: compare Angry Birds on a WP7.5 handset with that of Angry Birds on the N9, I dare ya!!

Secondly, many of the apps I have downloaded for my WP7.5 LG E906 handset often crash (the Engadget app is one I can think off straight from the top of my head, but there are many others).

Thirdly, Microsoft claim the IE browser in Windows Phone Mango is more HTML5 compliant that the competition, but I'm often finding pages that do not render correctly, and even several that are "jumpy" (the page moves because of some banner ad). As someone who has actually used Windows Phone Mango, I can put my hand on my heart and say prolonged browsing causes anger and frustration.

How to save Nokia? MeeGo!!

1. Release the N9 in primary markets (backed with marketing campaign etc).

2. Release a follow-up (N10? Anyone?) with a 4.6 inch screen, dual-core CPU, HDMI output (wireless or otherwise).

3. Entice the development community (personally I don't know how any software engineer is not enticed by the cool Qt tools - they're fantastic!).

4. MeeGo is (as pointed out by someone else) already well suited to tablets, so release a MeeGo tablet.

If Nokia wants to support Windows Phone, go for it! But don't bet everything on the success of a platform (?) that the market is clearly rejecting.

Elop is the devil, and when you try to dance with the devil, you're gonna get burnt.

My (grass roots) 2 cents worth.

AtTheBottomOfTheHilton

This "ecosystem" talk is just company marketing BS and a way to trick consumers that when you have bought a product from a certain company, you must continue to buy products from that company in order get full service and satisfaction.

Actually in the real world it doesn't work that way. Apps for your cell phone often exist for several operating systems. Services are often not connected to the operating system and is a separate program. Examples are Voddler, Spotify, Steam etc. These services are not connected to any operating system but independent suppliers.

Microsoft seems to have an idea that your TV setup box and fridge should run Windows phone as well but that remains only a dream for them. In reality the interoperability between devices are done through defined standard making it possible for you to use any brand.

cycnus

@Andy,

Just want to point out.
That the angry bird (and also other game) in N9 were also not openGL accelerated. It just the brute force of the 1GHz procs + 1 GB RAM.

with QT right now,
only symbian have hardware accelerated openGL.

I forget where I got this info from.
Basically it show various openGL implementation FPS in several nokia phone such as first generation Symbian^3 (N8, E7, C7, C6-01, X7) compared to second generation (Nokia 700, 701), then compared to Meego. FYI, the second generation Symbian^3 have GPU that 4x faster than first generation (in addition to faster CPU & more RAM)..... search google for more info.

vladkr

Yes, this Angry birds story with WP is quite suspect :
On Friday :
http://www.yle.fi/uutiset/news/2012/03/bloomberg_angry_birds_fly_past_nokias_windows_phones_3356156.html

On Saturday:
http://www.yle.fi/uutiset/news/2012/03/rovio_not_ignoring_windows_phone_3358313.html

vladkr

Another proof of Nokia's success :
http://www.yle.fi/uutiset/news/2012/03/phone_exports_to_france_nosedive_3360595.html

(I'm absolutely not promoting YLE, but it's in English, and it appears they deal a lot with Nokia lately.)

Vanessa

@Andy: I like your plan :). MeeGo tablet, N10, and entice developers using clever marketing strategies and incentives. This is, after all, what Microsoft are trying to do now to rescue the car wreck that is Windows Phone:

http://bit.ly/H5Nq76

Since MeeGo is open, I might try to buy a slab from China that's fairly open, easy to obtain GPU drivers for, and then create my own MeeGo tablet :)

A MeeGo tablet would blow everyone away. Imagine the press frenzy that would ensue. You'd just have to make sure it was of an extremely high quality.

Microsoft (Elop) is being very anti-competitive. Just one less platform to deal with - congrats Microsoft!

vladkr

Nokia paid AT&T $25M to offer a Lumia 900 to sales representative.

They're quite optimistic if even they think that representatives wouldn't buy it by themselves :

http://news.softpedia.com/news/AT-T-Employees-Get-Free-Lumia-900-Phones-Nokia-Pays-25M-for-That-260557.shtml

JohnTitor

No offense, but Tomi reminds me of nokia culture.. always looking back, arrogant attitude, deadfast grip on past.. The reason why nokia is now dead.


zlutor

http://mynokiablog.com/2012/03/26/nokia-n9-16gb-for-299-eur-at-gigantti-fi/

N9 for 299 euros in Finland (~the most expensive country of EU). Imagine the combination of marketing push of Lumias and this price tag - worldwide.

There would be no problem with the balance sheet of Nokia in 2012, for sure...

vladkr

@Baron95: When I read that Nokia+Microsoft is an underdog, I primarily see that Nokia+Microsoft is a dog : it runs after its own tail trying to bite it.

But I agree with you that now, Nokia needs Microsoft's cash... the problem is that it needs it because some Canadian jerk ruined the company and lost investors' confidence.

vladkr

@Baron95 - Bis : N9 can't be anything else but a niche, it hasn't been promoted at all. Only a minority knows it exists, even in countries where it's distributed. For the rest, there are the Geeks, and the few non-geeks who know about the phone, but who also know that Meego is dead.

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