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March 22, 2012

Comments

Sad user (but happy of own N9!!)

@DS
MeeGo is far better then Android. However it is really true that Nitroid can be (1st) Nokia last chance to survive as will allow to use Android apps (2nd) as dual boot will allow to present MeeGo to wider public, first interested with Android can find by the way MeeGo interesting (3rd) After WP disaster and Symbian market dissasembling can be a repalcement for former Symbianists and WP-victims. (4th) However it can sounds strange but as this is revolutionary staff still it can become Android and iPhone competition but only under competent leadership of not eloped management.

Still N9 seems to be last Nokia chance, unless they will not sell manpower and manufacturing power and capabilities.

WP is both slowly working poison and unstopable cancer. I am afraid Nokia will have to go through bunkrupcy proces to reborn as new, but great like old, Nokia. I am so sad seeing all this, and think how employee will survive all this madness, lack of common sense and total disrespect for loyal customers needs.

I only can hope all this finally will have happy end, without any post Window's and post Elop's trauma.

Earendil Star

About the MS and THT Elop insanity even in their propaganda...

At first the motto was: Nokia is good at HW but fails in SW.
Therfore -they went- with fantastic MS OS everything will be fine!

Now THT Elop is downsizing the company, particularly Nokia factories,
and the production is mainly outsourced to the likes of Compal.
Well, the story now goes, actually those factories were expensive, so let's get rid of them.
So, now, if also the Nokia HW is gone, where should the competitive advantage lie?

Reality is, that MS & THT Elop never really thought Nokia HW was better.
Also, they could not care less about Nokia's factories, since they were geared to produce devices for Symbian and Meego.
What they really needed was Nokia's name, brand, patents, carrier connections, maps, know how in mobile, etc..

What THT Elop is really doing now, is to downsize Nokia getting rid of anything that is unnecessary for the WP agenda.
Soon, everything will be clear: Nokia was made lean to become a captive WP OEM.

The one problem with this strategy is that they did not consider the nosedive Nokia would take after 2 11.
Take the UK for example. Nokia was 30% a year ago, now it's under 5%, and falling.
Since this is also happening in other markets, the push to WP that will be coming from Nokia will be much lower than anticipated.

Remember, Nokia had NOTHING to gain from WP and MS.
WP WAS THE BURNING PLATFORM. Not Symbian.
WP badly needed an exclusive agreement with Nokia, to convince the market that it had at least some chance of succeeding.

So, now this card is much less valuable than it was just one year ago.
What will be MS' next move then, to try and get some additional market share?

This is what will be interesting to see from now on.
Some new "strategic partnership"... who will be the victim this time?

Good night and good luck!

So Vatar

@ Earendil Star,

very good analysis. So, after sucking out Nokia's life blood (not that Nokia was not a willing victim) they need to turn to new "partners".

MS needs to think big, and then there are not that many possibilities anymore.
Apple is out of the question, so Samsung's phone division seems the only rewarding target. RIM is a walking dead, Motorola taken, and HTC, Sony, LG etc are not big enough to make a difference.

I wonder if Samsung will fall into the same trap as Nokia did. I guess Samsung is smarter, but never underestimate the evil genius in Redmond.

KPOM

I do take issue with Tomi's assertion that the tablet strategy is futile. To me, the possibility of Windows 8 is the part of the whole Windows strategy that made the most sense, and for which Microsoft had a compelling argument against Android when Nokia was making its decision in late 2010. Windows 8 is the only tablet OS that has a chance against the iPad. Android has had 2+ years to react to Apple, and they haven't made an impact. Android's tablet market share is inflated by the Amazon Kindle Fire, which runs a forked version of Android but does not give access to Play/Android Market. And only Amazon has the business model that can sell the tablets at a loss.

There will be someone to emerge as the main challenger to iPad (and perhaps even take more market share), but it isn't likely to be Android as released by Google. It might be Amazon, but I think it might just as well be Windows 8, since Microsoft seems really serious about it and ARM. Microsoft can afford for many of its products not to succeed, but they can't afford for Windows 8 not to succeed. Nokia is in just as good a position as anyone else to put out a good Windows 8 tablet.

chithanh

Tomi, you sound very angry about the current situation at Nokia.

One more leading indicator of how "burning" Microsoft mobile platform is that developers are abandoning it in large numbers. The freelancer.co.uk "Fast 50" reports a 29% decline in job offers in 2011. In comparison, the total job market grew 216%.
http://press.freelancer.com.s3.amazonaws.com/2012-02-27-Freelancer.com-FAST-50-2011.pdf

As for challenging the iPad, there is nothing to win in doing so. Android will grow on sub-$100 7" tablets which have been all the rage at CeBIT and which will ship to Europe and North America in unprecedented numbers during 2012.

Legion

Right now Maemo is more mature than Meego because of Community SSU than Nokia support.

Fire Elop, bring back Meego and optimize it for N900, open source closed interfaces to allow mods, and care more about developers that try to make the software, instead of looking only for your benefit.

I still use N900 because N950 is not avalaible, ;)

Per

Angry Birds Space skips Windows Phone
http://www.todayonline.com/TechandDigital/EDC120323-0000147/Angry-Birds-Space-skips-Windows-Phone

Chris D

@cycnus, I was just going to post that... Haha. It is certainly something they can try; but what if most front line staff do not like the phone? Then they can tell potential buyers "my employer forced this on me, but don't buy it - it sucks."
Also, 80% is ridiculous unless they are forcing their employees. Which may or may not work.

Anyhow, this is $25 million for one (of four+) carriers in one country. We will see how this will work out...

Mikko

Guys, you're publishing wrong info. Via Reuters:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/23/net-us-rovio-windows-idUSBRE82M0RG20120323

"Rovio to get Angry Birds Space for Windows Phone: CEO"

J.O. Aho

@Legion:
I wouldn't agree with you, Maemo CSSU has a lot of issues, there are days I have thought of reflashing my N900 and go back to the stock Maemo, mainly for the poor view mode (portrait/landscape) change where it takes a lot of CPU and where your widgets gets quiesced into a too small area (should have been cut up into two rows, left side on the top and right side on the bottom).

CSSU has just become a playground, with no real goals, I rather had MeeGo/Tizen on the cellphone than Maemo, but I'm at the moment too little time over for doing something with the cellphone.

Keyoncé Bnowles

A sane Nokia board does not exist. As you can see on the Corporate section of their website, Stephen Elop mysteriously crawled his way up there and is now a member.

You wonder why everything seems to be permitted or approved no matter how destructive the decisions can be, don't you? Now you get the reason.

Per

@Mikko

When is angry birds comming to WP?

J.O. Aho

@Per:

http://www.mtv3.fi/uutiset/it.shtml/2012/03/1517717/nokia-lumian-omistajille-loistouutisia---angry-birds-tulee-sittenkin

No information as far as I can see, I would guess when WP7 supports better hardware as Rovio says they want to give the best gaming experience

O.Hunter

Here is an interview with Elop where he "explains" why he went with WP7 exclusively
http://www.ctv.ca/generic/generated/static/business/article2379883.html

cycnus

Here is a chart from the net that said most nokia user went to android (HTC/Samsung)

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UXxUBSU537c/Tork7lvdshI/AAAAAAAAYvE/eECzXNodqRk/s1600/OEM-churn-rates.png

http://www.onlinemarketing-trends.com/2011/10/699-blackberry-owners-in-uk-switched.html

Mikko

@Per

I don't know, can't speak for Rovio.

I just hope Tomi has seen Reuters' article, I'm quite sure he already started a lengthy "Angry Birds skipping WP - WP is doomydoomydoomed, Elop must be fired" article :) Feel sad for him, it would have been a masterpiece!

Earendil Star

Regarding Rovio and Angry Birds Space, the CEO had to put a "political" patch on the issue.

Probably he was called by some MS top brass directly, to remedy this blow to WP.

It is interesting to hear from Rovio technical guys directly, to get rid of the pr fog.

http://bloom.bg/GJS5yu#ooid=ZueTQ5NDp8Kov9T7lpSPczGv-eiZ538e

What comes out is that bringing apps to WP is a pain (need to completely rewrite), while from iOS to Android it's a simpler port.

Yet, WP was the best choice for Nokia. Surely. And it's ecosystem is teeming with apps. Not.

Earendil Star

@ F.OO, I agree with most of what you say.

The only point of disagreement, at least partially, is on WP's qualities.

You say WP is not all that bad, and if you are talking about looks, I totally agree with you.

MS has paid particular attention to have a fluid and flashy OS, also because much of the iOS perceived strength is about its zippy touch performance. And sales (for iOS) appear to vindicate this care and attention.

I already wrote that MS had to rush WP7 on the market, because it finally realised it had to act immediately if it wanted to have any chance of succeeding in mobile at all. However, in order to do this, they had to sacrifice substance. They wilfully needed to give priority to something (looks) and sacrifice less noticeable but fundamental aspects, simply because they did not have the time to look after those.

The result is that WP is a half baked product, with many shortcomings. One that I already mentioned, for example, is its fake multitasking implementation. This means that, when trying to use multiple apps together... they crash or behave erratically (e.g. Sportstracker). Just the contrary of Maemo / Meego, where multitasking is true and real. And this is not just geek speak. Having to use many apps simultaneously may happen quite a lot. And if it does not work, it certainly does not contribute to your UX.

Furthermore, the attempt by MS to control the ecosystem, as vladkr correctly pointed out, results in voluntary restrictions on the hardware possibilities.

So, WP has nice eye candy, and possibly that is enough to catch the initial attention of many unsophisticated users.

But on all other fronts, WP is not that good. At all.

Which is what many MS fanbois unwittingly admit, when they say "just waith for W8 (and WP8) release".

karlim

Oh. Hey @Earendil Star

Does your appearance in this post comments mean that you admit you and Tomi were wrong about those Kantar numbers you tried to debunk me? :)

Neither of you replied to the hard numbers there, did you?

As for current Nokia WP failure - maybe it is. And maybe it is not. We've seen just a quarter of performance. Though I expect them to report 200-300% growth this Q, and the next and the next. Lets see what happens.

It may happen or not. I believe it will.

But that's before Win8/Apollo - where Nokia has the first real chance to show what it can come up. And when things really start to count.

You are one of the few here,that I haven't noticed to admit to be disgruntled Nokia shareholder inventing crazy theories.

Who decided to ignore my comment calling them on it (cowardly bunch that they are)

Tomi (and you) ignoring all the positives Nokia did last and is doing this year - it is up to you to ignore. Lets just wait a year and see if WP is an eye candy or not :)

J.O. Aho

@karlim:

Sorry for bursting in like I knew things, but from my experience all the mobile OS:es from MS has been quite disappointing, lacking features and no interest to implement what been missing and really been ignorant of end user needs, with a baggage like that I don't expect to see anything joyful from WP8, what I see is that you will be even more locked down with what you can install and run on your mobile device with the UEFI lock down.

Of course my opinion is influenced by my dislike to closed source products, this includes iOS too.

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