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March 20, 2012

Comments

cycnus

@Chris D.

They would abandon the sinking boat, but MS has a claw that prevent samsung and other from leaving. :)

I must add something here:
back in WP7 days, Microsoft also did a big $$$ marketing here.
Free netbook for every purchase of top of the line HTC/Samsung/LG WP7 phone.
After the marketing gone, you could also purchase that phone for around US$ 150-200 in Indonesia. Barely used.

So like I said in the post before, once the marketing money for windows phone gone, the sale will go into void.

Therefore it would be very interesting to see the sales in the country that lumia were launched. It would be very interesting to see if the sales could hold up in that number, going up, or going down.

David Sugar

I had said a year ago Nokia did not need Microsoft, but Microsoft desperately needed Nokia. This is just like how Beluzzo knowingly defrauded and destroyed SGI because Microsoft back then similarly desperately needed to get NT into the market by any means necessary. Similarly Elop has defrauded Nokia shareholders, customers, and (soon to be unemployed) employees to get Microsoft it's marketshare. So very much like Beluzzo, there is the very real possibility of a similar quid-pro-quo, where Elop will return to Microsoft later this year or next, very likely as Balmer's "heir appearent" essentially replacing the now gone Mundie.

Zech. F

I just voted my proxy shareholder votes: no to the whole board.

If only everybody would do this... And if only we could keep the N9.

Info Dave

I just read this earlier today

www.businessweek.com/news/2012-03-21/microsoft-says-windows-phone-will-pass-apple-in-china

Couldn't be more different than what you said. I remember IDC and Gartner both saying Windows Phone would surpass iPhone by 2015. That's a lot of market share to make up. But first, they have to stop hemorraging existing market share.

Earendil Star

I believe Kantor data just give more support to previous diagnostics:

1) Nokia was declining in market share and needed to change
2) Nokia had a wide range of choices (the wisest probably to continue with Symbian & Meego strategy + Android), yet THT Elop opted ONLY AND EXCLUSIVELY to transition to the smallest available OS, the one devELOPed from a decade long loser in the mobile space: MS.
3) After one year, WP is still in the low single digits.
4) WP would be faring MUCH WORSE were it not for Nokia. WP WAS THE BURNING PLATFORM, not Nokia.
5) With Nokia at 4-5% market share in the UK (and elsewhere), the help for WP will be limited.
6) Sadly for Nokia, THT Elop considered no plan B. Clearly, Nokia was not his concern, just saving WP.
7) THT Elop's strategy has been a failure for Nokia. Yet no change in sight. This means he is executing well.
8) Media is lip servicing MS propaganda. Just a further proof they are just advertisers, not journalists.

Finally, in 2011, Kantor data was referred to March, debunking karlim's attempts to put ALL the blame on the previous management...
See: http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2011/apr/18/smartphone-market-android-win-nokia-rim-lose

Good night and good luck!

Walt French

@Tomi, thanks for the detailed studies. I'm surprised at the amount of pushback that you get, given how well-documented your posts are.

But there's one place where you CAN'T document your claims, and that's the counter-factual. When you say, “clearly the Microsoft strategy is suffocating Nokia and killing its customer relationship,” I think you should actually be saying “clearly, the lack of a better strategy than Microsoft is suffocating Nokia.”

The difference is important.

As a US resident, I've had very scant exposure to Symbian and other Nokia efforts. I know that they *have*done* very well in many places. But the industry is changing extremely rapidly; Nokia is undergoing the same sort of stress that essentially killed Palm, previously a very-well-regarded firm here, and is taking down BlackBerry, clearly more of a one-trick-pony than Nokia, but a major, and highly-coveted player just a short time ago. Even seasoned incumbents such as Motorola, which benefitted early on from the Android link, are failing. Samsung is virtually the only incumbent from 2005 that is doing well.

It cannot be true that ALL incumbent phone manufacturers suddenly got stupid. Nokia may be falling harder than others, but they have plenty of company. I believe the reason is the classic “Disruptive Technology” that Nokia didn't quite get ahead of, not in 2005 nor 2008 nor 2011.

As an occasional reader of your posts, I can't say I've ever seen why Symbian was prepped for supporting the type of application- and media-centric affordable-luxury markets that have exploded. Yes, I understand there were stores and many developers and even some world-class capabilities. But these remained hidden to US consumers; where we knew of them, they lacked the pizzazz of the easy scaling that Apple's multi-touch could show off in a few seconds. Maybe it was all in the marketing, although I have seen that claim about Apple be a weak excuse for lack of compelling product often enough that I would want some better evidence than I've seen.

By many accounts, Apple has spent something like two decades earning a reputation for easy, powerful and flexible software, and another decade in becoming the thought leader for music and other media. Lots of evidence suggests that the "phone" feature was initially more a defensive move to prop up its iPod business, given that everybody would have a gadget in their pocket. I know that Nokia has been very proud of its ecosystem, but these facts support the notion that Nokia needed a whole ecosystem transplant, as Elop said, and that Microsoft is not yet there, either.

Now obviously, this is not All About Apple. Google got quickly into the US market, in ways that Microsoft COULD have, or that Nokia COULD have, but neither actually did. That fast following, responsiveness to market trends (especially, carriers' needs for a perceived-modern alternative to the Apple) and even a crappy ecosystem, all were good enough. Again, the differentiator between Nokia and Android is the very fast recognition of how US consumers would look for 32-bit, touchscreen, internet-centric devices. Of course, Google has top-flight credibility in All Things Internet, even stronger than Apple's.

Nor is it all about the US. But the rapid shift to the new mix has spread around the world.

So yes, I absolutely agree that Nokia is suffering with the Microsoft connection, and I have actually been a bit MORE pessimistic about Nokia's fortunes in the short term despite Microsoft's need for a partner. Still, I don't buy the counter-factual that there was a better option obviously available, one that Nokia's existing organization would've adopted. All we see is that, entirely as expected by followers of the Christensen theme, incumbents are being destroyed if they cannot adapt quickly enough to very foreign ways of operating.

karlim

@Earendil Star

Thanks for pointing me to that Guardian article. And some nice numbers there. But they support my story more than they do Tomi's or yours.

Problem is - you are referring to a different survey then Tomi does. Read Tomi's post again - he clearly refers to Kantar data for February, not March. And Nokia's/Symbian market share of 12.4%. This one: http://www.cellular-news.com/story/48197.php

(Though there is no direct mention of Nokia market share there, or anywhere else publicly, Kantar certainly did have detailed country breakdowns for paying clients. So my guess is that's what Tomi somehow got and used)

Guardian used the numbers Kantar provided them for March. One month later. Nokia lost another full percent of market share, and went from 12.4% to 11.4%. While Android gained 0.6% (from 37.4 to 38%) and iOS gained 1% (from 22 to 23%) in that same month.

Btw., that Nokia market share 1% loss in March, with "Elop effect" in full swing among consumers, was actually better performance then Nokia showed in the previous 4 months. When, according to Tomi's data, it lost 2.5% of market share a month, every month.

Why, if we look just at Kantar data Tomi and you (Guardian) provided - we may conclude that Feb. 11th actually slowed Symbian decline, and reduced Nokia market share losses 2.5 times ;)

Tomi T Ahonen

To all in the comments thread.

Note there is now an addition to the story (at end of blog, clearly marked as 'update') - there is breaking news of survey by Finnish business paper Talouselama, that according to their survey Lumia 800 sales are very poor in the European markets where Lumia first launched - suggesting crashing sales, not growth in sales - and worse, the Lumia 710 does not even register according to their survey. I know its a long article, don't bother re-reading the rest of it, but you may want to read the update part.

And please keep the discussions going. We are having a lot of visitors here on the blog and many are interested in the debate here in the comments as well.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

W. Anderson

There is a great deal of truth to this story, even if the dire projections from former Nokia execs and technologists are exaggerated.

I know because just before Nokia made the announcement of it's Microsoft alliance I was preparing to place an order for four Nokia smartphones, for myself, my wife and two grand children - E72, E71 and two of E63.

Immediately upon hearing this news, I contact Nokia to cancel planned order. That's four phones just from me.
I had/have absolutely no faith that Nokia would provide support - upon the direction (rad orders) from Microsoft, and I certainly have no intentions what-so-ever of ever purchasing smartphone powered by technology from Microsoft.

W. Anderson
[email protected]

Wayne Borean


I did a check on cell phone stores in the Toronto Ontario Canada area around Christmas. Most of them had one WP7 phone on display. A few were Nokias, some were other makes.

Note that I said one phone. All had multiple Android, iPhone, Blackberry models, but never more than a single WP7, and not one Symbian phone.

I talked to a lot of the sales reps, letting them know I'm a writer, not a customer. Once they understood that I wasn't going to name names, they were very forthcoming. Head Office insisted that they had a WP7 phone on sale. It didn't insist that they sell them, and they didn't.

They also didn't get very many inquiries. Almost no one was interested.

ChrisD

@Info Dave
Microsoft can say a lot of things, they can say that the sky is green and that everybody likes Salmiakki... but that does not mean it's true. Just marketing. Surpassing iOS, at this point, is unlikely, and surpassing Android seems positively delusional. But then again, we will see what the future holds.

@Walt
There was another strategy available, and other manufacturers have shown it, most of all Samsung: Hedge your bets, support three platforms for different price points/experiences. In Samsung's case it's Bada (low-end "smart" phone), Android (main strategy) and WP7 (hedging bet/licensing). HTC and others drive similar strategies. Nokia could well have done the same - continue Symbian for low-end smart phone, and choose two or all of Meego/WP7/Android. Meanwhile, scale back Symbian development severely (to save cost).

@Lulu
Dream on.

@Hayden,
Why not bring in WM market share from 5 years ago? It is interesting to see how it develops over time.

ChrisD

@cycnus
Interesting to see more of this "free X with WP7" stuff... the re-sale price point clearly suggests that customers are not interested in this OS. As such, it will be very interesting to see what happens when the first promotions are gone. I am sure MS cannot give away free Xbox forever - after all, this is an expenditure of $350 per customer (or something like that, Xbox here costs S$460).

everyone, the numbers in the Kantar survey are market share of SALES within the quarter. Sales does not equate current market share (of phones owned/used). So, if last quarter was 12.x%, share of sales is 2.5%, then having 11.x% market share (of owned/used phones) sounds plausible. Tomi - I think it would be good to point this out very clearly in the future, I see also in other blogs/websites where people are confused about this.

Jay

I'd like to admit Tomi Ahonen diagnoses expresed in both updates are proper and adequate. I have spent an amount for Nokia N9, want to buy Nokia tablet with pair to N9, so MeeGo tablet. I have tried and I had an impression that all in Nokia have been spelled or coursed to repeat key words "Windows" "Lumia" and not recognise what I am askin for. And it is visible even they as employee don't believe in Windows products they are to sale. I haven't believed in windows mobile ever, and after enormously gigantcla marketing action I believe even less. I have meet many unknown to me persons shareing fundamental doubts and I am not going to be labolatory rabit for windows. But I have already decided to move Nokia N9 and supplier, hence Nokia (yet?), is just to respect MY decision, I don't care at all Elop's decisions, he does not pay my bills.
I have read Microsoft has paid Elop (officialy nothing hidden) for outstanding "Lumia sales" and I stoped for a moment, wait, what is this all about? Comedy or what?
IF NOKIA WOULD SPENT A FRICTION OF MONEY SPENT ON MARKETING, SPENT TO NOKIA N9 DEVELOPMENT THEN NOW NOKIA WOULD HAVE PRODUCT COMPETITIVE TO iPhone and Android PHONES! And also by developing Meltemi as simplified MeeGo system would have an easy and widely accepted replacement for Symbian. And this soolud be painte, posted, mailed, sculpted, whatever else - in all places where Nokia's Board with Elop especially OUGHT TO READ IT EVERY DAY AT LAST A FEW TIMES. Perhaps such semi hipnotic suggestion could break the windows spelling/course and bring management decisions to reality. Elop could be value employee for Nokia. When only he start thinking with brain, but not with Windows.
Or perhaps really we will have similar to Rick Belluzzo case quite soon.
P.S.
I am not Windows hater, I just don't care about it and ignore it. This is nothing I would accept in my mobile, that is all.

cycnus

@ChrisD,

Yes, no one really want WP7 in Indonesia. After all the first time adopter of WP7 here already gone. What is more hurting for WP7/7.5 when all the first time adopter (a.k.a the geek / the one we ask for which phone to buy) said it's not good.

the worst part is...
When no one really want the second hand wp7, it really hurt the WP7 pride.

I really hope to see the nokia lumia 800 sales report here. :)

Dave

Symbian is a BRITISH operating system! It came from Epoc32 which was created by Psion for its series 5 handhelds. The software was spun off into Psion software which then became one of the partners in Symbian. The S60 was one of the two Nokia UI's placed on top of Symbian. Symbian also had UI's from other manufacturers. These UI's originally were based on some demo UI's from Psion software (including a very good touch screen - obviously because of the series 5 - so Apple were hardly first with touch screens).

Then of course someone did a 'Ratner' announcing to the world that the OS would stop - frankly not a clever move for several reasons. First the obvious destruction of market share which would result. Second, the kernel of Symbian OS was by then a Nokia property in all but name (the Symbian foundation was supposed to be around to ensure anyone could use it - but no one else did). This allowed Nokia a lot of freedom to do some very clever things - including the 808. The 808 would have beeen impossible on any other OS - the requirement for a really high performance graphics processor and fast image processing required a chip not supported elsewhere, something that would have been an impossible swap with any other setup.

Is Symbian dead? Well yes and no. Yes, Nokia really aren't putting any effort into selling even the 808 - try and find it on the UK Nokia website - the UK aren't getting any - tough shit - if you want one you will have to use a 'grey importer' Nokia won't supply one. The BBC love to kill off anything British and are proud backers of all Apple - so Rory did a wonderful job of ignoring how amazing the 808 was and concentrated instead on moaning that it was Symbian based (and pointing out it had a 41mpixel LENS (I mean what a burke - supposedly a technology correspondant and can't tell the difference between lens and sensor). He missed out the facts that Symbian was the only OS on mobile devices that would do what was needed, or that the UI is actually spectacularly good, the API's and application support is brilliant, that the battery life surpasses any other device on the market... and that last thing is because Symbian came from EPOC32 and was designed for battery operation from the ground up - it is NOT and never was a cut down version of a desk top operating system as every other one is.

No, Symbian isn't dead, there are still more Symbian phones around than any other - they may no longer be outselling the rest but there was such a massive headstart that it is still not eroded. You can (at least for the moment) still get the platform source. It is still the best, one day someone will make a new generation of winning devices based on it just because it is (a) free, (b) bloody good at its job.

nokdown

Perhaps the Finnish govt should investigate Fidelity (Magellan) buying of Nokia shares during March 2010 upto Aug 2010 when it started to sell Nokia shares.

http://talk.maemo.org/showthread.php?p=1156549#post1156549

Wasn't that the period when Elop was hired to run Nokia?

I would like to see some strings being pulled to get Nokia back on track.

There's too much destruction of people's lives with this destruction of Nokia.
Nokia has enabled several people and businesses to grow and thrive.
We should make a decent effort to help protect all those effected by this economic hitman Elop and his backers.

adrian

As a consumer, I believe this is inevitable. As both companies are late in the game, I don't expect early success especially that Androids and Apple are fiercely competing which I doubt Nokia/MS partnership has anyway getting close fast enough. The offer of MS to Nokia is enticing and MS is still respectable in terms of software making. Anyway, they will not die as long they keep on pushing and improving their system.

I like what they did on the Pure view which got the attention of many but the hardware and the OS is putting many enthusiasts, writers, reviewers, and early adopters off despite the fact that the phone is capable for most people. Those savvy people are important to spread the word out.

Indeed, MS needed Nokia to adopt their OS. I don't see any other way Nokia could have done this. They couldn't just stay with Symbian for smartphones, it just slows its extinction. MS knew what to do since they really need to capture the smartphone market.

Tomi T Ahonen

And more to all in this thread..

I just finished the follow-up to this story. Its the 'obviuous' blog article for this time, a little before Nokia's Shareholder Meeting. How would I recommend fixing Nokia - it can be fixed and Nokia can return to profits and growth in about one quarter, if rapid action is taken. I tell you how, read the blog article from today (22 March) entitled 'The CEO Insane - How to Rescue Nokia'

I will return later for comments here in this thread, please keep the discussion going (I have removed a few inappropriate comments, you don't need to respond to those who clearly stepped over the line)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

AS147

All of this speculation and depiction of figures is pure conjecture and crystal ball gazing. In other words pure hot air. None of you know whether it will succeed or fail or be a mid player.

And why? Because regarding the Lumia range there is an insufficient data sample to do anything other than guess.
Give up wasting your time and give it a year. If by then it is not obvious then we all need to pick something else to confuse ourselves about.

Oh one last thing, these reams and reams of consciousness about this is a M A J O R B O R E
This from a person who is really into mobile technology

Get a life and more than anything BE REALISTIC not BIASED

Jake Feldman

Oh the biases of a broken heart... if before Tomi was delusional - he could never and would never see the impending demise of Nokia's broken smartphones platform - now Tomi is on a journey of rage against his treasonous lover, declaring every single thing that led to his shattered dreams to be as corrupt as only a former love can be.

Dude. You need a head doctor.

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