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« This is Delusion - Nokia CEO Elop today in interview | Main | Thinking Like a Social Media Slut - Should we publish Twitter handle on Business Card? »

February 15, 2012

Comments

elm70

@karlim

Interesting, Baron95 stop arguing about who is controlling Nokia, and now it is your time.

First, your link: "http://www.nokia.com/global/about-nokia/investors/financials/sec-filings/sec-filings/", here are tons of documents, most of then are about which securities (funds, bonds, etc) are owned by Nokia, some are about stock option and executive salaries, but I can't spot any document that state who are the mayor share holders of Nokia.
So be more clear, to me your last posts are an attempt to confuse with wrong informations, like the 2006.

Now other wrong information from your side. If Capital Group communicate the 27th July that they own over 5% as required by Finish law, does it means to you that the 26th July Capital was having 0% ? These big amount of stocks take months/years to be accumulated at this level.
Now, with a law that impose to communicate when ownership is above 5%, what is the point to go above 4.99% ?

Now, since Dodge and Capital Group are clearly the mayor share holder (without any possible doubt) from July 2011. Why they did not replace the CEO?

Let assume a new comer acquire suddenly a lot of stock in a company, clearly the first think that he may want to do, it is to have the control. But Elop, even if is continuously destroying stock value and Nokia profit, this is not removed by the American funds ... and the only reason is because Elop has been nominated CEO by them.

The funds had the control before, and now they did strength it. For avoid anybody can enter and change their plan.
Nobody else will chose the Elop approach and strategy, if not somebody with huge investment inside Microsoft.

Back to 11.2.2011, Elop announce the new strategy, analysts/investors from all over the world start selling Nokia shares and in no time Nokia lose 30% of market capitalization, now we are above 50% capitalization lost. The strategy is clearly wrong, at least it is clear for the thousand of investors and analysts all over the world. But still, the CEO is not questioned to resign for the big mistake, and this is because the strategy is exactly what was requested by the controlling share holders.

Tchuss

e_lm_70

elm70

@karlim

Interesting, Baron95 stop arguing about who is controlling Nokia, and now it is your time.

First, your link: "http://www.nokia.com/global/about-nokia/investors/financials/sec-filings/sec-filings/", here are tons of documents, most of then are about which securities (funds, bonds, etc) are owned by Nokia, some are about stock option and executive salaries, but I can't spot any document that state who are the mayor share holders of Nokia.
So be more clear, to me your last posts are an attempt to confuse with wrong informations, like the 2006.

Now other wrong information from your side. If Capital Group communicate the 27th July that they own over 5% as required by Finish law, does it means to you that the 26th July Capital was having 0% ? These big amount of stocks take months/years to be accumulated at this level.
Now, with a law that impose to communicate when ownership is above 5%, what is the point to go above 4.99% ?

elm70

Now, since Dodge and Capital Group are clearly the mayor share holder (without any possible doubt) from July 2011. Why they did not replace the CEO?

Let assume a new comer acquire suddenly a lot of stock in a company, clearly the first think that he may want to do, it is to have the control. But Elop, even if is continuously destroying stock value and Nokia profit, this is not removed by the American funds ... and the only reason is because Elop has been nominated CEO by them.

The funds had the control before, and now they did strength it. For avoid anybody can enter and change their plan.
Nobody else will chose the Elop approach and strategy, if not somebody with huge investment inside Microsoft.

Back to 11.2.2011, Elop announce the new strategy, analysts/investors from all over the world start selling Nokia shares and in no time Nokia lose 30% of market capitalization, now we are above 50% capitalization lost. The strategy is clearly wrong, at least it is clear for the thousand of investors and analysts all over the world. But still, the CEO is not questioned to resign for the big mistake, and this is because the strategy is exactly what was requested by the controlling share holders.

Tchuss

e_lm_70

karlim

@Earendil Well, at least now we agree on where we disagree. And it's the same Nokia Q4 2010 Symbian 3 sales numbers. And whether this was a one time thing, or a start of a new trend. And there is simply no hard evidence to know one way or the other.

If those reported S^3 sales/shipments were more or less the same as the actual end user sales. And they were on the upwards trajectory in Q1, before Feb. 11th - then you indeed may be right. Elop's memo and announcement caused a big damage, and the strategy change was way too radical.

But if the S^3 Q4 shipment numbers, as I believe, were just a one time thing caused by a confluence of unique and not repeatable factors. And even with all those positive factors the end user sales were way less then the shipments, causing operators and wholesalers reduce their orders right after the new year. Then all the Elop conspiracy theories go out the window. Symbian^3 turned out to be a flop - and Nokia was facing more or less similar decline in Symbian sales to what we saw this year, Feb. 11th or no Feb. 11th.

With no platform of their own to compete against iOS and Android - they had to make a quick and radical change. And they did it, for better or worse choosing Windows Phone. It might as well turn out to be a mistake - very few of us insist that the WP strategy will succeed. Or even that Nokia will survive. But it was the business decision made on information Elop, the rest of Nokia management and board had at the time. The risky decision, made in good faith and in the interests of Nokia.

karlim

@elm70 The document I am referring to is 20-F form. There's a "Groupings filter" at the top of that filings page. Select "Annual filings" there. Press search. You 'll get only 2 forms - 11-K and 20-F for each year since 2002. Download the 20-Fs for 2007-2010 (the last filed on 03/11/11). Now - these are huge documents. But PDFs have a table of content. Go there and click on Item 7 " Major shareholders and related party transactions".

Now to your questions - no - I do not insist that Capital or Dodge bought all their shares on July 26th. They bought most of them during 6 months prior to July. But not before Jan. 1st 2011 - they would have been listed in 20F if they held a significant percentage of shares then. Most likely they bought them during the sell off after strategy announcement and profit warning.

As to why they did not fire Elop? Dodge and Capital have very limited ways to do that, and must act through the board. And they didn't have enough ownership to seriously change the composition of the board during last shareholder meeting in Spring 2011. Or the one in 2010. They could have an emergency shareholder meeting, but they need at least 10% of shares to call it - and they didn't have that prior to July.

Matches


"The Q3 results were alarming but that could have been a temporary blip and Nokia could have recovered. Now the Q4 results tell us that the current product portfolio, and the strategy, is not working." - Tomi Ahonen, Jan 27, 2011.

As for the U.S. ownership conspiracy... It doesn't make much sense. I'm not sure how it benefits American institutional shareholders to install and maintain a CEO to deliberately crash the share price of a company IT OWNS A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF!

First off, you need to demonstrate that these companies also own massive amounts of Microsoft for this to make any sense at all. Then, we have to swallow the idea that in order for these companies' investment in MSFT to make money, their big idea is to buy up enough shares of a smaller company (NOK), so that they can influence the board to hire a guy that will shift their smartphone strategy to be beneficial for MSFT. That in itself is not implausible. But people seem to be implying that they've crashed the price of the company they own, deliberately. Just because they're "American" and want only American companies to dominate smartphone platforms? I'm sorry but that's absurd. If an American firm DOES have large positions in MSFT and they are worried that if they don't succeed in smartphones, that MSFT's future is in jeopardy, what does a rational company do?

1.) Sell the stock and invest its money in one of thousands of other companies with better prospects... or...

2.) Hatch an elaborate and illegal scheme to plant a mole as CEO in another company that will cause massive near-term losses in their own holdings, on the off chance that this newly crippled company *might* be a salve for its *other* investment's flagging mobile ecosystem?

vladkr

Another evidence that Elop's policy is a wrong one :
http://www.yle.fi/uutiset/news/2012/02/europeans_trust_in_nokia_weakens_3279313.html

@Baron95: I know you'll explain us that Europe is not Silicon Valley, and blah blah blah, but I don't care, as to me a country where one has to pay extra for long distance calls, where one pays for incoming calls and where 10Mbps is considered as "High speed internet" is neither really modern, nor an example to follow.

vladkr

@Baron95: Don't you have enough of opposing countries with stupid stereotypes (and not only with your Silicon Valley will crush everything past comments) ?

You also don't know what you're talking about when you say that Nokia has much more SW engineers than Google and Apple. Maybe you just lie knowingly.

Most of your comments are chauvinistic, and totally opposed to reality.

BTW : Look at SF Bay area internet coverage maps, and explain me where and how one can get competitive internet access of more than 6Mpbs (clue : $399/Month for 25Mbps is NOT competitive!)

elm70

@karlim

Once again your points about nokia ownership was wrong

The 20f document are not significant

By Finns rule only ownership over 5% need to be reported, so these 20f document are by nature not complete for show owner with 4.99% or less

Saying that american funds did not own lot of nokia stocks in 2010 or 2009 is wrong, capital group had always lot of nokia, as visible also in the 20f documents

If you check Yahoo finance you will see capital group heavly exposed in Microsoft stocks too, capital group has multiple funds, add them together and they are possibly the mayor owner of Microsoft

Tchuss

e_lm_70

elm70

@baron95

Judge the Symbian cost fot Nokia is not easy without real insider information

Yes, symbian was slow, and nokia hw was old, last best nokia was old nokia n95 and e90, since them was no real improvement at any decent speed

But, odd enough Symbian had and still have some unique advantages other iOS and Android, so, even if cut associated Symbian cost could be the right decision, publish a self destructing memo and shout loud the end of Symbian is totally no-sense, except nokia want to promote windows os

Personally I would never put my SIM on a iOS or Android phone, there the apps start at their wish, not at my wish, there data transfer over GPRS-umts is always on for spy my location and my usage, and being in roaming most of the time can be costly

User so far don't percent this as critical as me, but Symbian has a different approach and this could have been used for keep some decent market share if Nokia would have been more wise

Anyhow, put all the eggs on the Ballmer basket, was not a decision for the good of nokia
You , baron95, mentio that nokia could not jump on android, due to ipr problem, that's mega wrong, if somebody can produce android without legal risk it is nokia having the richest ipr portfolio

Tchuss

e_lm_70

guest

"Contrast that with the reported 200 Google developers working on Android (around 1Q-2011 time frame)."

In all honesty, one should add all the developers in other organizations who contribute to the Android code base.

karlim

@elm70 Oh for god's sake, the lengths people will go and the blinders they'll wear to hang on to their pet conspiracy theories.

"...capital group had always lot of nokia, as visible also in the 20f documents"

Really? Yes, Capital group owned 11% of Nokia in 2007. But they sold almost all of it in 2008-09. And had only 0.3% of Nokia left on Dec. 31st 2009:

"at December 31, 2009, Morgan Stanley beneficially owned 53 971 296 Nokia shares and its wholly-owned subsidiary Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc 46 304 558 Nokia shares and Capital World Investors, a division of Capital Research and Management Company, 12 333 500 Nokia shares, which at that time corresponded to approximately 1.4%, 1.2% and 0.3% of the share capital of Nokia, respectively."

There is absolutely no evidence of the least bit concentrated U.S. Nokia ownership in 2010 and until July 2011. How the heck could they have manipulated Nokia board? Nokia board has 11 members. 4 of them serve more then 10 years, 1 from 2007, 1 - from 2008 (former CEO of F-Secure, Chairman of Elisa – Finnish mobile operator) . 1 - CEO of Statoil (Norwegian government controlled oil giant) joined in 2011, another – CEO of Stora Enso – Finnish pulp giant, with Fin government as biggest shareholder - also joined in 2011

These are the people you say funds manipulate, or the one’s likely to sit quietly when manipulation is going on?

Your statements that only 2 U.S. funds owned 10%+ of Nokia were at least interesting to check out. So I did. But now you are descending to the crazy level of some others here.

Sorry, unless you can back your assertions with at least semblance of facts - I don’t see a point in replying to you anymore.

polo ralph lauren shirts

"If you are between 1 percent and 10 percent

elm70

@karlim

Until you post wrong statement for support your view I'm not going to let you state wrong facts:

"But they sold almost all of it in 2008-09. And had only 0.3% of Nokia left on Dec. 31st 2009: "

Can you read what you copy paste ?

Capital group, at the end of 2009, had at least: 1.2% + 0.3% of Nokia, 1.5%.
AT LEAST ... since Capital Group has multiple funds that own Nokia stocks, not only the two mention here.
Anyhow, based on this "poor" report since the 20F document is not accurate for single ownership below 5%, Capital Groups is still the mayor owner of Nokia by the end of 2009.

It will be interesting to see these Board members, one by one, as you notice before 2009 the ownership of American's Funds was even more evident then today.

Starting from Jorma Ollila: "Prior to joining Nokia in 1985 Jorma Ollila worked eight years in corporate banking at Citibank", that is a man coming from Citibank! In fact Citibank was another mayor stock owner of Nokia. So even Jorma is a man well connected to the American Funds and Lobbies.

Anyhow, most probably the true is following:
Elop acted in the interest of Microsoft (there is no question about it), this was fine with most of the Nokia board members and mayor stock holder of Nokia. Probably some board members and some stock owners had been took by surprise by Elop 11.2 memo+strategy, but first they had not enough power for over-role the decision, and second, if they did try to collect other nokia share holders for have more power over the sponsors of Elop, it would have took too much time, and the damage of this could be even worst for Nokia. Elop act so fast to don't really let any easy way to go back.
Anyhow, in my view Elop act as criminal, putting Microsoft interests above Nokia interests !

Tchuss

e_lm_70

ps: About the fact that Nokia stock holder are same as Microsoft, from "http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=MSFT+Major+Holders" Capital Group own : 2.63% + 1.33% + 0.46% (+ other percentages that are not visible from Yahoo). Making Capital Group one of the mayor owner of Microsoft.
This is another point that you did try to deny in the past !

Earendil Star

Karlim,

your (little) facts & (lots of) fiction salad is... unsavoury.

Firstly, it is YOUR allegation that the N8 was possibly not sold to end custormers.
Yet, even if your theory was true, then Nokia would have simply gone back to its previous trajectory and declined à la RIM in market share, but NOT in sales, and would NOT have turned profits into losses. Instead, there is a watershed between and after THT Elop's February outings, that is CLEARLY mirrored by Nokia's performance.
Tomi had very clearly predicted everything back in February, EXPLAINING in detail WHY Nokia would immediately experience a free fall after those announcements.
And his predictions turned out to be absolutely true.

But the real joke is when you say: "With no platform of their own to compete against iOS and Android".
This is CLEARLY false and untenable. The Symbian Anna-Belle(-Carla-Donna?) evolution and Maemo Harmattan and the N9 are there to prove it.

Are you really saying that WP was any better? Do you really want to learn something about WP UX?
MS had to rush WP to the market because it was so much behind the curve, and it concentrated on looks and left working on substance for later.
Check some REAL LIFE WP UX on this link:
http://www.sports-tracker.com/blog/2012/01/17/windows-phone-update-with-fixes-and-support-for-german/
Commenters ask help on app crashing, no multitasking, ludicrous workarounds (start player, then app)...
Apart from looks, WP is still primitive. Badly lagging... EVEN SYMBIAN! Years behind iOS or Android.
And NOT in market share (that is widely known)... in the quality of the software itself!

So, please, give me a break with your references to "conspiracy theories".
There is NO conspiracy theory whatsoever. Just reasoned criticism on otherwise unexplicable choices and strategies by Nokia's CEO.

elm70

@Baron95

To believe that US mobilephone/smartphone market is more advanced then the one in Europe is plain wrong, and a bit arrogant.
Smartphones have been invented in Europe.
Mobilephones have been more popular in Europe before being popular in US.

Finally US market is not as open and diversified like Europe (multiple markets and multiple operators), the US market is dictated by the 4 operators that sell phones with contract, actually is dictated by the mayor two in US.

Nokia is not selling nothing in US since years, even when Nokia was having competitive and state of the art products, no US operator was selling Nokia phones. And it is not true to state that US people didn't want Nokia phones or Nokia phones have higher returns so operator did not want to sell them. In the same time Nokia was dominating the bestseller list inside Amazon.com, so, american customer did want Nokia phones, but operators did not want to sell them.

The reason why operators in US did not want to sell Nokia phones is evident, and I don't have to repeat it.

Tchuss

e_lm_70

elm70

Back to 11.2.2011

After the memo, all the world would have expected a strategy like this:

Nokia Windows Phones for US market (Nokia had nothing to lose in US, Microsoft was losing badly in US, so Nokia support would have helped)
Nokia Android Phones in Europe (Android is the fast growing OS, Europe is the strongest place of Nokia, to keep selling jump on the winning OS was a must)
Nokia Symbian Phones in the rest of the world (Symbian was dominant and growing in emerging market, no reason to change the strategy here)

A perfect diversified strategy, like Samsung is applying.
Build Windows and Android phones is no cost for Nokia, the OS is for free, only task would have been to port Nokia Maps/Navigator on Windows and Android, not a big task.

@Baron95, you WRONGLY state that Nokia could not make Android phones to to IPR problem, how silly is this, Nokia has the strongest IPR portfolio on the market.

As well, Elop should have had to reassure that Symbian was not dead not junk. The burning platform memo was very moronic on this aspect. But, yes, R&D cost would have had to be reviewed and properly reduced with head cut.

Nokia stategy was simple, that's why even the moronic memo of Elop was not causing any price drop of Nokia on the stock market.
It was the most incredible new strategy presented by Elop few days after that made Nokia share price to collapse -30% in no time.

Clearly, short after a Nokia profit warning did pop-up, operators around the world that was buying Symbian phone from Nokia, after Elop world decided to don't risk, and stop their normal supply of Nokia phones. The profit warning, that made further stock market devaluation, is not due to the consequence of Nokia market share decline, but due to the most moronic self inflicting actions and strategies in the story.

Tchuss

e_lm_70

ps: MeeGo for me was a joke, Intel was not committed to it, still no CPU from Intel ready today, no interest from Intel to develop a new competitive OS based on ARM CPU. Again another US company that damage Nokia.

lee

Huawei Ascend D1 Q.
http://ww1.sinaimg.cn/large/9f2bdb7cjw1dqdkor4s7vj.jpg

F.OO

Elop's plan is working: Windows Phone Showing Signs of Life, Thanks To Nokia

After a long stretch of disappointments, shipments of Windows Phone-based devices significantly increased in Q4’11, mostly due to Nokia’s aggressive push into the space with its Lumia line of smartphones.

http://www.networkworld.com/community/node/79894

tory burch

http://www.usaoutlettoryburch.com

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