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« This is Delusion - Nokia CEO Elop today in interview | Main | Thinking Like a Social Media Slut - Should we publish Twitter handle on Business Card? »

February 15, 2012


Earendil Star

Lee, Lee...

WP Ecosystem? Where? How can an ecosystem exist with no market share? 50k apps? What a misery!
Reality is that Nokia is helping the struggling WP ecosystem (the real burning platform) to even EXIST.
WP would be going NOWHERE without Nokia.

Furthermore, you appear to refer to the "real" Meego (merge between Maemo and Moblin) to prove your points, but ...

Nokia is now calling "Meego" its Maemo Harmattan OS with Meego compatibility layer.
So this is the Meego that counts now, the one Tomi (and others, including myself) are referring to.
Who cares if it's actually, technically Meego or not (which it wasn't).

Yet, its magnificent new management chose differently: to bet *ONLY* on WP.

The results, for Nokia, are visible to everyone now.


Elop killed symbian. Latest Tietokone magazine (one of the biggest IT magazine in Finland) lists 50 best smartphone apps. List contains only Android, iOS and WP apps. Article says that symbian is going to vanish and Meego is marginal. No need to list any apps for those. After reading articles like that I wonder if anybody is going to buy Symbian or Meego smartphone.

For technical point of view: Symbian has improved in a year more than several previous years together. When I bought my N8 in spring 2011 it had S^3. Later N8 got an update to Anna. Now I can update my N8 to Belle. Never ever in history any Nokia smartphone has had such a good operating system support!



You table about OS for Q4 is looking very very strange

You state 2M MeeGo sold on Q4 2011 ... strange

From Garten this is impossible, for them MeeGo was even to mention, and has been placed on the "others", and just 1.1M devices are in:



@Barron95 ... about 8.000 unproductive Symbian developer ... what about the Skype-Microsoft developers that after so many months from the Skype acquisition ... have still not bring Skype on Windows Phone ? This is really really embarrassing ... are the developer of Skype unproductive? Or is Windows Phone such a junk of OS that it is impossible to port in a decent way Skype?


Lee wrote: "One could see, if one stopped living in the hopes of the past -- that the main elements of what Nokia switched platforms FOR, are indeed coming together."

The problem is: even if Windows Phone reaches 1/3 of the market, with the help of Samsung, HTC and other manufacturers (that's the plan, right?), Nokia will be reduced to a fraction of 1/3 of the market -- let's say 1/3 of 1/3. Elop built the roof at 11% of market share. In the best scenario!

The other players don't have this problem, because they didn't make the dumb decision of dropping everything and bet the company in a single platform; Samsung will ship Androids, Windows Phones, Badas, etc.

And Apple has 100% of the iOS market, so it can grow as much as iOS goes. Even if iOS was limited to 25%, it would be a much higher than Nokia could be. And Apple doesn't have to pay royalties for the operating system.

Conclusion: in the best scenario, Nokia will have a fraction of the Windows Phone market, which itself is a fraction of the operating systems market.

That's absolutely crazy. If Windows Phone succeeds, Nokia fails. If Windows Phone fails, Nokia is gone.

"Plan 'B' is that plan 'A' must succeed". Crazy.

Earendil Star

Baron, sorry but your statements are so easy to debunk. You should really try harder.
You speak of WP as if it was already a dominant platform. You are dreaming. Please wake up!

Nokia will do HW. Uhm, no, not yet at least. And in the future plans are to leave that to the Chinese, since Nokia plants are being shut down.
WP Cool UI. Maybe. Yet nobody buys it. Market wins. You loose.
Nokia unproductive developers. Yeah, ok. Go back to work and stop writing nonsense on this blog.
Nokia hostage on low performance chips. What a laugh! WP cannot even run on multicore chips.
Nokia is now free to innovate. What? OS is MS's, hardware is Compal's & Co.. Maybe design.
Win 8 on ARM. Still Vaporware. Still to be proven that legacy apps will manage to run on ARM.
MS is desperately trying to catch up in touch but ist vision appears blurred and confused. Could be a big flop.
Win 1 year behind Apple. What?! YEARS BEHIND TECH AND LOOKS. Not to mention the gap in phone/pad/pod market share and profits.
WP 8 and Nokia able to be on par with its competitors. This means:
a) you agree that even with WP7 Nokia is still lagging competition
b) just think in one year's time what the competition will already be: iPhone 5, iPad 3 or 4, new Android devices, etc. etc.
What you are saying would have been true if Win 8 / WP 8 had been released NOW. But no, it will just be available in one year's time (maybe).

Lee, sorry to disagree, an ecosystem without users is worthless, it does not exist.
So, you HOPE it will become big, but we still do not know yet. You are free to dream what you wish, but that's your business.
That the N9 looks are nice it's sure. That's the only that rivals iPhone in terms of looks is debatable. Personal opinion again.
Fact is, you are still confusing what's best for Nokia and what's best for MS.
Since you are talking about what's progress for MS, I totally agree with you!
Namely, the current Nokia path is what is ideal for WP and MS and it shows real improvement: WP is no longer a burning platform and now -thanks to Nokia- it could stand a chance to become relevant for the first time. As for Nokia itself, it's a completely different story: disaster.


"think it's Windows 8 on phone, tablet and PC"

so that was what convinced elop???? I'm more concerned now....

Tablet is a dead market, between the kindle fire and the ipad there is no space for anything else, me apart from am in-flight entertainments system I fail to see the use case for those any way.

now The PC, do you honestly think consumers are going to use metro UI in pc?? That is the kinda thing only some one totally ignorant to Usability, and the impact different input mechanisms have on UI/UX would say... Metro UI on the PC is only optional and mostly targeted at foldable laptops. That so far are nothing more than an more than niche market.

So remains the phone were Microsoft as failed for the last what 15 years.

This buzzwords people repeat like ecosystem and cross-experience only make sense to people that really look at it from the outside and have no idea how things really work, talk to any UI/UX designer in the market with a proven track record and every one will tell you the same thing, different form/imput factors require new UI/UX.


Well by entering the tablet and PC market Nokia exposes itself to competition from Lenovo, Asus, Acer, Dell, Fujitsu-Siemens and copious Chineese companies that drive the race to the bottom and no way to differentiate. All those companies are aggresive and exoerineced in their domain, contrary to Nokia which has failed miserably with its attempt at Windows netbook. And all this in addition to whole bunch of android companies who will certainly jump ship as Win gets any traction. And you say helping MS to start that race is beneficial to Nokia? That going Android would be crazy?
If I were Nokia (or any traditional phone company) I whould do anything to prevent MS from creating a dominating ecosystem including mobile comm devices. Because that equals going downhill. There's a reason Sammy and HTC aren't enthusiastic about WP. They have tasted independence and ain't going back. If I were Nokia I would call Samsung, Moto and Sony and created a patent pool MS couldn't touch.


Lee wrote: "Nokia isn't limited to 11% of the market...nor is Apple limited to 25%. All will compete for all of the market."

Of course, these are scenarios.

What is the best market share you expect WP could possibly reach in the next 5 years? If it doubles every year, while others stand still, it may reach 33% of the market.

In this rosy scenario, Windows Phone market will be split between Nokia, Samsung, HTC and other manufacturers. That's the idea, right? Microsoft wants all the manufacturers.

If the market is split between 3 big manufacturers, Nokia will have more or less 1/3 of this market, or 11% of the overall market share.

And this is the BEST CASE SCENARIO, in which WP is a huge success and is adopted by several companies.

Now, let's see a moderate success scenario: Windows Phone reaches 12% of market share. Again, Nokia will be restricted to a fraction of this market -- more or less 4% of the overall smartphone market share.

And, finally, let's think about a catastrophic scenario: after several years, WP can't go past the 3% market share. Nokia, who had 33.7% of the smartphone market share in 2010 will have less than 1%.


Now, let's say that each scenario has 1/3 of chance to happen: Nokia's *probable* market share is (11+4+1)/3 = 5.3%.


If Elop wanted to increase Nokia's chances, he should adopt Android so he could at least fight for another slice of the market; it would at least double Nokia's probable market share.


Baron95 wrote: "Nokia will have an opportunity to show that it can be a top dog in the Windows ecosystem, just like Samsung has proven it can be a top dog in the Android ecosystem."

The problem is that Nokia limited itself to one side of the game.

If Nokia is a top dog in the Windows ecosystem, that's still only a fraction of the total smartphone/tablet market share.

And there is always the possibility of Nokia not being the top dog in the Windows ecosystem. Right now, HTC is getting excellent reviews from its Windows Phones.

So, Nokia may end up with a fraction of an ecosystem which is a fraction of the total market.


@Eerendil, elm, cygnus, N9 etc;

It is amazing how all your theories depend on one, so vulnerable, data point. Nokia Q4 2010 sales and Tomi's Nokia N8/Symbian 3 turnaround theory based on that.

You kick that one domino chip/data point down, an and all the conspiracy theories about TH Elop start falling apart like a house of cards...

Just 1 quarter, 3 months of sales in absolutely unique kind of situation. With absolutely no follow up or even evidence that Q4 2010 were real sales to end users.

Yet - you will happily ignore the flimsiness of evidence as long as it fits your theory...



I'm really sorry if to say that for me you have a narrow sighted vision and only seeing a small picture, whereas Tomi is like an eagle flying from 1000 miles and see the big picture with his eagle eyes.

Seeing on what you write here is like talking to a wall street shorter that don't care about moral and only care about $$$$.

Tomi on the other hand believe what Elop did were wrong, and it's also not the best strategy for nokia to go to 1 Microsoft Way..... In which I agree, because I am able to see the big picture.

I really understand the argument and your way of thinking, but I don't agree with you.


my last post should be for @karlim, not @baron95.


@Baron95 "Then they deserve to die. They have the closest relationship with Microsoft of all the Windows Phone OEMs..."

How valuable is this close relationship, if Microsoft wants all manufacturers to produce Windows Phones?

This image tells all:

It is very difficult to see the difference between Windows Phones. The only differentiation is the hardware -- and Elop told us that Nokia would pick Windows Phone so it could differentiate from others. What a joke!!!

When I look at the picture above, I have to think: the Windows Phone market will be very competitive; I truly expect it to be split 1/3 Nokia, 1/3 Samsung and 1/3 HTC. I'm not even considering others, so the slice can be actually smaller than that. And forget the fact that Samsung and HTC have the advantage of scale, since they will sell in two markets instead of one.

Thus, if Windows Phone miraculously manage to grab 33% of the smartphone market share, Nokia will end up with only 11% of the overall market.

11% of market share, in the best scenario!!!

So, Microsoft would jump from zero to 33% (great move, Ballmer) while Nokia would drop from 33.7% to 11% (what did you have in mind, Elop?).

And this is the best scenario!!! (I can't stop repeating this, because this shows how incredibly stupid Stephen Elop's strategy is.)

Earendil Star


you are saying: ok, Q4 2010 supports the hypotheses I oppose, but if we disregard it, then I am right.

What kind of reasoning is that?????

Yes, Q4 2010 supports the fact that at the time, Nokia was faring well with its old strategy.
Yet, the same is supported by all the previous quarters (when Nokia was profitable and growing smartphone sales) and subsequent ones (when Nokia obliterated both its sales and profits, when the strategy changed).

The difference between our statements and yours, is that ours are based on facts, like Q4 2010.
Yours (and of like sided posters) rely on assumptions (=opinions/hopes) like:
- Symbian / Meego is POS
- Nokia could not and will never be able to execute and was bloated, despite past success
- MS & WP are fantastic, and their future is brilliant even if, currently, the market does not get it
- only US / Silicon Valley software is good
- for Nokia, considering alternative plans would have been a waste of time, risk management is useless
- If Nokia is suffering, never mind, everything will be better in due course
Facts do not support this? Well, just disregard what contradicts it and then we are right.

Should we seriously consider this kind of blabbering?

Reality is that evidence abounds that Nokia is being forced to follow an isane strategy.
Which means, there is no conspiracy theory at all.


@Baron95 "Nokia was cratering and was going to crater in Smartphone sales, no matter what. The company was standing still and was grossly under-performing in advanced markets (where it counts) for years."

Q4 2010 tells a different picture: Nokia was not "cratering". Nokia was not "standing still". Nokia was actually growing and having profits.

Then came the infamous burning platform memo, the alliance with Microsoft, and Elop declared Symbian death sentence.

Symbian fell from 39% to 17% in one year. That was Elop's fault.

But let's pretend that Nokia platform was in fire, and it was necessary to adopt a different one. Why would Nokia adopt the 8th platform, which less than 1% of market share, instead of Android?

Elop told us that Android wouldn't let Nokia to "differentiate" from other manufacturers. Bullshit!

Look again at this page, and look for any sign of "differentiation" between the Windows Phones:

The only differentiation is the hardware... the only thing that is not made by Microsoft!!! Because in terms of software they are absolutely the same.

Because of that dumb decision, Elop condemned Nokia to a fraction of a fraction of the overall market share.

"That was the question. Just like Greece. Greece is not choosing options for growth. Greece's economy will go DOWN and DOWN A LOT, no matter what."

Please, don't compare Greece to Nokia. The Greek economy shrank only 6.8 percent in 2011; Nokia market value dropped 50% in the same period.

"The only question is if in 2014/2015 Nokia will be better off with a Windows 8 line up of phones, tablets, ultrabooks OR with just Symbian phones and no-apps-dead-ecosystem Meego phones and tablets. Or with Android phones and tablets.""

No. The question, now, is if Nokia will survive until 2014/2015. Nokia's future depends exclusively on Microsoft. In fact, Nokia doesn't even have a true plan B! "Plan B is that Plan A must succeed," said one executive.

"Until you and Tomi understand that, all your analysis will be flawed. If you believe that *ANY* option that Elop could have chosen would lead to a great back to number one future for Nokia in Smartphones you are delusional."

Elop had *MANY* options, and he chose the worst one. He destroyed Nokia market value and limited its future market to more or less 11% market share, with a probable value of 5.3% (read my comment above for the scenarios).


Hmm @Earendil, there you go again. Accusing me of saying stuff I never said (Silicon Valley, MS/WP fantastic, etc;), twisting my words just to make your point. How fitting.

Without even trying to understand what I am trying to say.

"Yes, Q4 2010 supports the fact that at the time, Nokia was faring well with its old strategy."

Really? Do you even understand the difference between shipments to distributors and the actual sales to end users? Does not seem so.

A hint - try Googling about Samsung's debacle with original Galaxy Tab shipments vs real end user sales in early 2011. They shipped 2 milion, hardly sold anything.

Nokia's Q4 reported numbers do not prove a thing about how many N8s and other Symbian 3 phones they actually sold to the end users that quarter.

I'm not going to rehash why here. And I did it enough times on this blog already, you probably read it, and Tomi's comment system doesn't allow for long comments easily. Except for saying it again - shipments are not the same as end user sales. And nobody knows how much S^3s Nokia sold to end users in Q4 2010. It is a fact.

@Baron95 - I agree with a lot of what you say. But #5 in your latest comment is wrong. MS/WP - might have been the fastest to get to 30K apps. But iPhone got to 65K apps in 4 quarters, 85K in 5, 185K in 7. As you are wrong on #7 MSFT might provide IP indemnification, but if there is 1 company in mobile that does not need it - its Nokia. Why give such an easy shots to our opponents to latch on to, to undermine the rest of the arguments we make...



You bring some interesting points.

I guess that the decision really boils down to #6:

"6 - Because the Nokia CEO knows the owner of the 8th platform well, and believes he can have a strategic advantage because of that."

The problem is -- Nokia didn't need Microsoft; Microsoft needed Nokia, desperately. That explains #1:

"1 - Because the owner of the 8th platform offered more incentives."

And the fact is: right now, Nokia is fighting for a slice of a pie that is less than 2% of the overall market place, because Microsoft also wants Samsung, HTC, Sony, LG, and other manufacturers to embrace the "ecosystem".

That's the worst aspect of Elop's decision (other than the Elop effect): Nokia is condemned to a fraction of a fraction of the market. As I explained before, even if Microsoft grabs 1/3 of the market (a huge victory for Microsoft), Nokia won't get much more than 11% of the overall market share. And here's why:

Nokia's smartphones have little to no differentiation from other smartphones! Sure, it has better hardware; but that's the only advantage they would still have if they had adopted Android; and they would be competing for a slice of a much bigger pie (43% against 1%).


"Geez Man - there are tons of reasons to go with Windows 8, with Windows Phone 7.5 as the interim step."

Windows 8 is a bet. Even Microsoft can't tell if it will succeed or not. They hope so.

Microsoft has a plan B. If Windows 8 fails, they can keep selling Windows 7 while they prepare the next version. They have Office, XBox, Corporate tools.

Elop bet the future of Nokia on Microsoft's bet. But he doesn't have a plan B; in fact, he tried to kill all other options so they couldn't possibly obfuscate his precious Windows Phone strategy. "Plan B is that plan A must work".

Earendil Star

Karlim, if you read my post I clearly state "and of like sided posters", by which I meant that not ALL those views were yours, but they summarise rather well the positions of the pro THT Elop guys.

Mostly opinion and hopes, little facts, which was my main point, which you are trying to evade by commenting on marginal issues.

Again, regarding sales or shipments, the difference is clear, but is there evidence that this was actually the case?
No. That's why you then quote Samsung, which had nothing to do with our discussion.
You are once again supplying a "maybe" argument, just to support your view.

Actually, you are now changing your original argument and saying:
- ok, I initially said that Q4 2010 is the only supporting element of Nokia's previous strategy success, which, if ignored, would then be consistent with me being right
- But I now realize I admitted something I did not want to admit. What I REALLY meant (last post) is that even Q4 2010 does not prove anything, because MAYBE the smartphones were not sold, only shipped.

Again, just a bunch of hypotheses and hopes, not facts.
Because facts are proving our points instead.

Earendil Star

Baron, I do not know if you had read my answer to Karlim before replying to F. OO...

but I must say I had not hoped to see my points confirmed in such a short time...! LOL :-)

Earendil Star

@ Baron (again):

"6 - Because the Nokia CEO knows the owner of the 8th platform well, and believes he can have a strategic advantage because of that."

What to you mean when you say that THT Elop "believes he can have a strategic advantage because of this"?

That he will be paid a lot by MS or granted some top executive position in the future? Do you have some insider info we would all like to know?

In any case, I appreciate you highlight the close ties between THT Elop and MS, unwittingly supporting our views. :-)

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