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« Apple Results? Beyond Monster Quarter selling 37M units of iPhones to 25% market share | Main | How Many Lumia Sales? As Nokia (and Microsoft) ashamed to reveal number, lets count - and compare to N9 MeeGo sales »

January 26, 2012

Comments

Peter

tomi,

you should not only blame Elop.

both Elop and Ollila have to be put into Justice. they are a pair of criminals. Ollila is most vicious of the two actually. He distrupted nokia's recovery with N8/N9 by bringing Elop in.

Petet

ej victor

N9 Saved Nokias herring! In the Q&A Francois Meunier – Morgan Stanley as a question about better sequential ASP. Timo Ihamuotila responded that was due to higher ASP devices in volume for markets... "like the Lumia devices as well as the N9." HA HA bet you his internal numbers would show it's 80%+ due to N9 sales.

Yes Yes

iPhone is doomed you claimed.. Aps don't matter! Nokia ecosystem is the best! Symbian was in recovery Q4 2010! And now: Windows Phone is doomed! Yeah, sounds like the great Tomi.

I´m happy Nokia has a good board with some sanity. They were in the same road as RIM and you will see that company completely collapse this year in the hands of Apple, MS or Google. Nokia made changes and RIM is just too stubborn. They just brought in their own version of Vanjoki.

If you really expected this to start pushing tens of millions of units every quarter from day one you are not a very serious person. MS and Nokia will build this overtime and have much better chance succeeding than Nokia alone with Meego/Harmattan

hewbass

@C "whereas now, they have a future in what will be a bigger ecosystem than iOS."

... and what evidence do you have that the WP ecosystem will ever be bigger than iOS? Current trends and predictions do not support that (except for a couple of analysts who cannot even describe the present or recent past accurately).

Even if WP does ever produce a reasonably sized ecosystem, we also have some indicators that Nokia will have flushed themselves so far down the toilet by then that they will not be able to take advantage of it...

elm70

@tomi

ASP from Nokia Q4 is fake!

They add in the smartphone sales the IPR from Apple and the 250m $ from Microsoft support

Take the 350m Euros out of these and you see the real ASP, just 125 euro

This sound to me that the old symbian phones sales have been busted by lowering even further the unit price

Tchuss

e_lm_70

michael

These things happen, think KODAK. The market leader completely misunderstood the market and made long-term wrong decesions.

The Nokia would be in this position no matter what. Maybe in 5 on in 10 years. Elop only speeded things up. If it was up to the old guard they would still be convincing themselves and the world with Symbian, same way Kodak was convincing itself with Kodachrome. After the mess they got themselves by thinking that the world revolved around them, little could be done to preserve the former positions.

I just don't understand how Nokia plans to sell WP7 to the countries from which you can't buy apps from app store. And this was supposed to be deal breaker. Waiting for what? Ballmer seal of approval.

The day iPhone comes to your country, so do the services of the device..

Eduardo

"They project Windows Phone to have 1.9% in 2011, then 9.0% in 2012, then 15.3% in 2013, 16.1% in 2014 and 16.7% in 2015"

Sheesh, how can someone think they can predict the mobile market in four years? And to three percentage places? Did anyone in 2007 successfully predict the mobile market in 2011? The mobile market is very volatile, the one thing we can be sure of is there are going to be a lot of unexpected surprises in the next four years.

Sir Not Appearing In These Comments

From the Q4 report (http://www.results.nokia.com/results/Nokia_results2011Q4e.pdf):

"In the war of ecosystems, clearly there are some strong contenders already on the field. And with Lumia, we have demonstrated that we belong on the field. Our specific intent has been to establish a beachhead in this war of ecosystems, and country by country that is what we are now accomplishing."

What is it with this guy and his war fixation? What sort of person writes this sort of thing in a financial report?

Robert Atkins

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/27/technology/1-billion-euro-loss-and-a-silver-lining-for-nokia.html?_r=1

“What people are underestimating is how much operators in Europe and elsewhere are beginning to support and push Windows phones,” Mr. Jeronimo said in an interview. “Operators are very afraid of becoming dependent on the Android-Apple duopoly, and as a result, they are pushing Nokia devices aggressively on the public.”

American journalists are so clueless... .

cycnus

@Robert,

I thinks they're not clueless, but microsoft have manage to bribe them.

or maybe balmer manage to brain wash them (see the movies in alan moore post), that linux/unix/android/opensource = communist. if you use it, you were communist.

so, the media starting to try to promote microsoft because microsoft is anti communist.

cycnus

@Baron

Why is it so hard for you to see what's tomi write? All I can see from you is twisting some fact, and trying to discredit Tomi.

Nokia and RIM were two different beast.
The problem with RIM is not because they were pursuing to stick with their OS, but because they were lack of innovation. RIM want the corporate market, therefore he only try to innovate in that area. i.e the BBM and email.

As it's turn out... THE THEORY OF CONVERGENCE.... the one that tomi always talk before Elop came in.....

When other start to put/have chatting software and better email, RIM market were stole. Because RIM do not have a good OS that can compete, if they decide to go to other OS such as android could help them, but will wipe up their identity.

On the other hand, symbian is evolving at rapid speed. When iphone come in, nokia manage to come up with N97/5800 (s60v5). Then it's evolve again into N8 (symbian^3), and now evolving again with Belle.

If you read the web, when Steve Jobs unveiled iphone, he said that the competitor are behind 3-5 year. And picture this, apple create the OS from the ground up. Nokia need to adapt their old OS for touch screen.... harder, but nokia manage to do it great. The only problem were the UX, and the UX were fixed with belle update.

So, in nokia, Elop is the problem.

n900lover

"Symbian never ever managed to be relevant in US and Japan"

LOL

iPhone 5 release date

awesome post i have bookmarked your blog thanks for sharing it .

Mikko

Tomi writes: "If you thought RIM was having trouble, it is nothing compared to this." Well, if you compare how stock valuation has progressed during the last year you might think otherwise. I think it's quite a realistic way to measure how the companies have been doing lately, especially if the range (one year) is long enough.

Please see the chart:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=NOK&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=rimm

Nokia last lost 50% of its value, it's not a pretty sight. But RIM - has lost over 70% of market value!

Back to the Tomi's phrase "Nothing compared to this". I'd dare to say it's a false claim. Nokia has its own troubles but to say RIM does much better. Whoa...

sebastien zopin

Funny how you contradict yourself. Aveage 150$ per smartphone with most N9 bought unsubsidized due to limited distribution. Suddenly 700$ per unit and it winning x3 over subsidized ones makes everything add up on speculation alone. And that dreaded xbox which is just price lowering, not an investment by MS into future profits. Your 3%-9% error margin is blown out of the ss just like the rest. Until N releases real figures it is no more than speculation, so calling it math-scientific is abuse. But include Facebook data of 300,000 only increase in users connecting from winphones and you have even more 'interesting' story. 3-system Nokia had no chance to survive with app marketplace now deciding about life and death of a platform. Only chance for N9(50) now is MS figuring out Harmattan is a great product they can get for free with free PR (1984-like commercials, BG getting Linus like for promoting freedom and opennes and charity, only asset they have now vs Jobs' greed/evilness/closedness, add to that alien dalvik and you have uber app ecosystem from start). Their office-suite integration with ARM mobile linux is not going to harm their x86 dominance, can only help if PR is played correctly

Peter

cycnus ,

you are right. Elop was hired to fix execution problem (as a microsoft office software manager, he was assumed to ba able to find the issues related with symbian^3 R&D). but Elop has been on his own mission to destroy nokia from inside because outside can not destroy nokia via free market competition. Elop actually disrupted all nokia execution. Elop is also not for the interests of Microsoft. His mission is to lead nokia to go BK for the maximum benefits of US net short sellers whole own nokia shares but naked short sold much much more that they owned.

it is a severe crime. the damage is $160B.

N9

@Baron95 stock is down 6%, humm they actually read the numbers?

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Doug, Anonymous and jo

Doug - thanks. Actually, I think as long as Elop is in charge, no more MeeGo devices. Any other sane person running Nokia, and we'd see big expansion of MeeGo including immediate sale of N950, the N900 re-introduced as the entry-level MeeGo device (replacing its Maemo with MeeGo obviously, and related minor tweaks to the smartphone) and the MeeGo device that Elop killed a year ago, the N9-00 which is not the same as the N9 we see today.

Anonymous - true. Actually Elop said so when N9 was revealed - he told the biggest Finnish newspaper, Helsingin Sanomat, that even if MeeGo was a huge success, there will be no further MeeGo devices from Nokia. I think this makes the N9 performance even more impressive (and shows how much Elop is on a crusade to destroy all rivals to Microsoft)

jo - totally true, the award aspects of Lumia 900 were all copied from N9.

Doug (second comment/re reply) - no, actually Nokia will produce new Symbian phones still this year, so even if no more MeeGo devices, Nokia will support at least two smartphone OS platforms this year. And they are working to bring Meltemi (Linux based, theoretically a cousin of MeeGo and Maemo) to power low-cost smarpthones that Windows Phone is not suited for. That means at least 3 operating systems in development now. Why not also MeeGo? Only Elop 'strategy' is reason why.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

jack1059

Stumbled across your article / web site Tomi, and all I can say is FINALLY! You've provided me the numbers which I couldn't get to confirm what I felt (and always said) was happening to Nokia under Elop. And provided even more in depth information! Great review of the situation. Shouldn't be surprised given your industry background, but there you go. While I sincerely hope your wrong (being a long time owner of Nokia handsets) I can only agree with you that Elop has committed Nokia to corporate suicide. "Burning platform"? No plan B? Crazy.

One question unanswered though is the board. Whats up with them? Ive thought that there's only one answer. They understood Elop's strategy from the beginning and agreed to it. Otherwise, why would you sit idly by and watch as your company is destroyed?

Thanks for a great, yet sad, read.

ノースフェイス

文体のスキルを把握する非常に一般的な概念です。私のユニットは、偉大な愛のチェスを持っており、低レベルの下に人を保持するための機会を持っている、と彼はLETS半分は勝つために応じて移動する子を上げて逃しません。

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