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« The No Straight Lines challenge: be realistic imagine the impossible | Main | Apple Results? Beyond Monster Quarter selling 37M units of iPhones to 25% market share »

January 24, 2012


Tomi T Ahonen

Sorry Baron, am having a very difficult time to get this response to you, even after editing it down massively and now cutting it up


And multi-touch is FAR MORE a progression than the first smartphone was truly a revolution. Before multi-touch we had plenty of touch screens all the way back to stylus-operated PDAs.

But you are right, Nokia and RIM both dismissed the iPhone early on and both expected touch screen phones to be a fad or only a tiny niche (and were wrong). You will remember, I said the iPhone would be a success, and that it will reach the incredibly ambitious 10 million unit sales level in its first year. Notice that for example now, when smartphones sell 4 times as many per year, Microsoft with all its minions including Samsung and HTC, were not able to sell 10 million smartphones in the first year of WP7 haha.

But again, your assertion that Nokia or Blackberry were somehow injured by the iPhone is NOT BORNE OUT BY THE FACTS. When the iPhone grew from 0% market share to 14% market share from 2007 to 2009 Nokia was essentially flat and RIM actually grew market share. It was Android to hit both RIM and Nokia hard into declines. The iPhone stole market from Palm and Windows Mobile

On Motorola and Google. Fine, split hairs if you like.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Marc Aurel

Since I know you like the facts: Samsung was in the film camera business. They started making film compact cameras some time in the late 1980's (probably for the SK domestic markets at first) and achieved some limited success in Europe during the 1990's. Something else I bet you didn't know: even Panasonic (i.e. Matsushita back in the day before they changed the name of the company) made film cameras in the 1990s, or at least film cameras were sold under the Panasonic brand.

Now to the IBM PC, Windows and OS/2 question; unfortunately the whole story has not been told in these comments. OS/2 really was a Microsoft and IBM co-development, but Windows 3.0 did not come out on top because it was better or because it was available earlier (it wasn't). OS/2 could run MS-DOS applications just like Windows 3.0. The real reason for Windows 3.0 success was the Microsoft Office software package, which Microsoft had developed for Windows 3.0 and Macintosh, but not for OS/2. MS Office had much better integration between components, a nice graphical interface and it was more WYSIWYG than its DOS-based competitors like Word Perfect and Lotus 1-2-3. They key to Windows' success was Microsoft Office, not Windows itself. In other words, MS Office was a true "killer app". MS Office was so successful that even on Mac it's still by far the most successful office application suite (well, file format lock-in and other underhanded measures are part of the reason, but those came later when MS Office was already the established industry standard).

You also completely forget the clone PC makers when discussing IBM. Even Nokia was once one of them! The biggest one was of course Compaq in the 1980s and by the beginning of the 1990s they had already seriously eroded IBM's market share even though IBM was still the largest. IBM also made some hardware-related errors like the IBM PS/2 computers with their proprietary Microchannel bus. The clone manufacturers did not want to pay the expensive licensing fees and simply developed their own bus, the EISA, which later became the industry standard for high-end PCs (before the PCI bus), whereas the Microchannel peripherals remained expensive and the bus itself was not used by other PC manufacturers than IBM. The Microchannel/EISA debacle shows that IBM was already losing its grip on the PC markets and it had very little to do with the software; after all you could buy an IBM PC with Windows 3.x installed "out of the box" already in 1991! IBB never sold PCs exclusively with OS/2...

I just thought people needed a little history lesson ;-)


@Baron95 and @Reda : your opinions make a lot of sense !

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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