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« Nokia Q4 Results: Now Official, Elop has Created World-Record Destruction of Market Share in One Year | Main | Last in my Trilogy of Nokia Numbers postings re Q4. The Regional Split. What do you do if 92% of your loyal customers reject your new toy (Lumia) »

January 26, 2012

Comments

cycnus

@Elm,

Why you so be defensive on N9/Lumina800 sales number?
Why don't you read the PDF and say your own idea?

elm70

@cycnus

I read the PDF, there is no number about Symbian or Meego (N9) nor of WM (Lumia 800)

It is clearly written that Y/Y the symbian phone sale did decline, Q4 2010 Nokia sold 28.6M Symbian. This is the reference.
Not the 16.8M Symbian sold on Q3 2011.

Now, do your maths
Smart Devices Net Sales 2747M.
Inside there are the 180M from Microsoft (if you don't agree tell me where these money have been put in the Nokia balance)
Not disclosed are also the money from Apple, should be at least 150M since Apple sold tons of iPhone.
Nokia in the past told that IPR from Apple have been added in the Smart Phone sales "basket"

Now real ASP is (2747-180-150) / 19.6 -> 123 Euro per unit.

ASP is declining ... the statement on PDF that ASP is increasing is a lie, for sell "old" Symbian Nokia had to go down with prices. That is normal since the best Nokia phone is still the N8 that is more then 1 year ago, since then nothing happen.

N9 has sold as little as the N900, maybe little bit better then N900, still what they sold is a miracle for how Elop in person try to boycott the N9 sales.

Tchuss

e_lm_70

ps: Elop Effect is real ... but don't fool yourself jumping too early on declare Nokia-Microsoft as dead. Finally after ages Nokia has 2 operators selling their phones in US (but just not yet and not present on Q4, and it will be a modest contribution on Q1 2012) ... this can provide some positive surprise for Nokia in 2012 from Q2, and hopefully growing for the Q4 of 2012 ... so .. hold on your horses for now.

smallnad

you've said so much and may be reasonable. But could you explain me one simple thing. What makes n9 better than Lumia? I've seen both of them and IMHO n9 have no chances against Lumia 800.

Meltemi Blog

My analysis shows N9 has been sold at least 0.96 million units, if Lumia phones were sold 1M and Symbian devices shipment increased by 5% (6.8% in Q4 2010) in Q4: http://www.meltemiblog.com/2012/01/n9-vs-lumia-sales-numbers-in-q4.html

So, if we're talking about reality, N9 outsells Lumia phones without any doubts!

N9

@smallnad and what do the numbers tell you??? that you are part of a minority...

smallnad

it's my choice - to be the part of minority now.

n9

WP MS apologists became somthing of a religius cult. They have faith that in the future some how WP will sell... Reality distortion to sau the least.

Matti

Its kind of irrelevant just how much N9 exactly sold. The fact that its even in the same ballpark as Lumia is pretty amazing.

cycnus

@N9

i don't think it's religius cult. I think it's MS sending their employee to give comment in blog and news site to make WP seems like the next big things

George

1. most N9s were sold and exported to hardcore Nokia fans in Wp markets who choose to boycott the Lumia
So all this talk about "if they sold it in main markets then it would have in millions" is pure fantasy.
2. I love the old S60v3 Qwerty Eseries hardware. But I accept that it can't be sold to today's 15-35 age group. Cutting the rope was painful but necessary
Going on with selling X7 E6 C5-03 N8 without a future would lead to catastrophic results
3. The no.1 reason for the decline is the fast adoption of Android and mass production of 100€ euro phones by ZTE, Huawei etc. They got Android OS for free and killed the low and mid tier market. Any teenager who got his 1st phone , got used to the OS and wanted to keep his apps. He would never upgrade to a X7 N8 E6 and pay extra . He'd get an SGS for shure as his natural upgrade. That the main reason for the fast drop of market share. Nokia simply didn't have a competitive offer. The Lumia isnt. The N9 isnt .
99.9% of buyers around the globe will take a SGS2. Can you blame them?

n900lover

George:

Isn't it interesting that worlds hardcore nokia fans are prepared to painfully jump through Elop's loops just to purchase n9 but not lumia? And what about the windows hardcore fans, where are they? And what is even more interesting that they are ignoring even lumia directly shipped under their nose and with spectacular show.

Peter

George ,

N8 is nokia's two years old flagship. last year nokia should have shipped n9 worldwide in Aug. if it was not sabotaged by Wall Street criminal Elop.

N9 would have sold 6.5M units at least and nokia can compete head on head with iPhone 4/4S.

Lumia is a dead toy, as Steve Jobs said, a pig, no matter how much lipsticks (marketing moeny) you put on, it is still a pig (no consumers want).

Regards,
Peter

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Ignorant, Peter, Yes Yes and Eduardo

Ignorant - haha, good theory.. We may never know.

Peter - I forgot about that. And not just in China. Like in Sweden, they took the 'availability clock' down from the Nokia Sweden website etc.

Yes Yes - I said, read the thread. The math is clearly there, based on Nokia Q4 results, between 1.5 M and 2.0 Million (in reality, up to 2.3 M)

Eduardo - haha funny (for random readers, we actually held that contest here on this blog, and we will celebrate the person who guessed closest)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

fred

Fred, the first version of OS/2 was a joint project by Microsoft and IBM. Version 2 was IBM alone.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Ansii, Pedro, Peter and N9

Ansii - yes we agree

Pedro - thanks, I appreciate the thought process you've gone through. I went through that too, but only for me, the math and market signals were too strong, so I arrived at the same conclusion some time ago, and obviously changed my tune in early June when I said the Microsoft strategy was doomed and Elop should be fired. (For those who haven't followed the full saga, originally in February I said this was a risky move but it might work, and that we should give Elop some time).

Peter - we agree obviously

N9 - Thanks for the math you did for Yes Yes.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

·

This isn't much of a surprise. The last Nokia phone that interested me was the N950, which they decided not to sell. I'm just mildly surprised enough people are accepting the lesser model N9.

Thomas Frischbier

I personally think that Elop has very different interests. The common sense is that it is good for a company to develop and sell a product with a good margin. Then everyone is happy.

This may be true to some degree and especially in the middle/long term. But when it comes to short time periods and thus to stock prices and shareholder values, the story may be very different. Think of the following: Microsoft announces his partnership with Nokia. This leads to a rise of the stock prices of both Microsoft and Nokia - probably with an incredibly higher gain than a successfull selling of some product.

I, we, and I'm sure Elop himself knows: If Nokia insists on the current Windows Phone strategy, it will go down. But I'm not sure if Elop himself cares about that. It is very clear that he is obligated to Microsoft and to shareholders, not to people who are employed at Nokia.

And for Microsoft it's simple: If Nokia is done, they simply choose the next company. It's like they always did. And they did very well, when you have a look at their stock prices.

Rezza

Hey guys, they have money, they can force everyone to sell Lumias, they can give away millions units for free, so I expect they will succeed :) Proud N9 owner ;-)

Kenny

Ten brands that will disappear in 2012 and Nokia is one of them.

http://247wallst.com/2011/06/22/247-wall-st-ten-brands-that-will-disappear-in-2012/

mcinsand

Aw, Give MS some credit. Compared with the Kin phone, this is a smashing success! :D

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