We Are Hitting Major Milestone: Time to stop calling it 'mobile PHONE'

I said this day would come, and I have been monitoring early numbers as they have started to emerge. Still, it took me by surprise that we've already hit the moment of passing the milestone. Its time to stop calling our device a mobile 'phone' (or cell 'phone' etc). The primary use of our mobile device is no longer voice calls! And no, its not that we download apps or surf the mobile internet (those days will also come some day in the future). But the first non-voice service has now passed globally the number of total users that indeed exceeds the number of voice users. I am of course talking of SMS text messaging.

So lets understand what happened. The modern mobile telecoms industry was born in 1979 when NTT of Japan launched the world's first cellular mobile telecoms network in Tokyo. A few years later several other countries launched more of these 'first generation' cellular networks like the Nordic/Scandinavian countries, and later even the USA got into the act with that famous Motorola phone sold by Ameritech in Chicago in 1983.

But on those first cellular networks the only kind of service we could use on a mobile phone (cellular phone) was 'voice calls'. It wasn't until GSM came along from 1991, the first digital network and what we now call the 'second generation' or 2G network (launched in Finland by my former employer Elisa/Radiolinja) that introduced the technical ability to do 'mobile data' services - the first of which was obviously SMS. And while some engineers sent SMS messages from PCs to mobile phones, the first consumer SMS, as a person-to-person message, from a mobile phone to a mobile phone, happened also in Finland on that yes Elisa/Radiolinja network in December 1993 (using Nokia phones, Nokia being later another of my employers before I left the corporate world and started this consultancy of mine ten years ago).

So for the first 14 years the only thing we could do were voice calls. And it was legitimate to call it a cellphone or mobile phone. But from late 1993, the transition started, and SMS started growing globally from 0% 'active users' in November 1993 to what I now measure as 83% globally. Some national SMS usage levels include leading countries such as 98% of Finnish mobile phone subscribers and 99% in the Philippines, to 91% in China, 89% in the UK, etc. Laggard nations like the USA which was very recently in the low 70%s in its SMS adoption rate, have been catching up rapidly and latest data from Pew in 2011 says 88% of US mobile subscribers are also now active users of SMS text messaging vs 70% that Pew counted just a year before. But there are countries still catching up like Canada where the level is now at 68% according to the CWTA in 2011.

But for SMS to overtake voice calls as the most used service on mobile, we do need to see a decline in voice call usage, else SMS could only in the perfect case 'tie' voice calls for 100% usage perhaps. And we have seen a steady erosion of voice calls, especially replaced by SMS text messaging, and increasingly in lower income markets and customer segments, from the youth to the unemployed. I've reported on individual 'voice usage' stats as they have emerged from very sporadic random countries over the past decade, but the trend has been solid, starting from 100% and counting down. By 2009 we found three major country surveys from Lightspeed Research that reported percentages from 11% in the UK to 13% in the USA to 30% in India among subscribers who had stopped using voice calls altogether. At that time while the trend was clear, the usage levels of voice had not fallen even in the UK yet to below SMS usage levels in 2009. And that Lightspeed survey did not explicitly ask about SMS usage, it asked only about voice calls, so it was not really a valid comparative study.

So we had not yet seen any international survey of mobile services usage, that somehow measured the national populations, to give national results of both voice usage and SMS usage, that would allow us to compare them side-by-side, in the same methodology, to any meaningful population size.

That changed this week, as we received the brand new Ofcom study of international telecoms markets. They surveyed 5,636 consumers in six major countries on three continents and part of the usage survey were questions 'do you use SMS on your mobile phone' and 'do you use voice calls on your mobile phone' And for the first time we have solid comparable measurements.

The countries are all in the 'Industrialized World' and are Australia, France, Germany, Italy, the UK and the USA. They found SMS usage levels from a low of 64% in the USA to a high of 86% in Australia. They also found voice calls ranging from a low of 68% in Italy to a high of 80% in Germany. The population-weighed average of the six countries gives an average SMS usage level of 71.52% for SMS, vs 71.48% for voice calls. So these percentages are 'per capita' and not 'per subscription' by which more often SMS usage levels are reported. The actual human consumer 'per capita' measurement is more accurate obviously, as it ignores the phenomenon of multiple subscriptions and multiple phones on the same person. And we have massive news! We have JUST passed the tipping point.

First, on the measurement, if you prefer to use the statistic of 'per subscriber' rather than 'per capita' - then the subcription-weighed numbers are even more strongly in favor of SMS ie 72.4% vs 71.5%.

Secondly, while these six countries count only 8% of the planet's population and only half of the people living in the Industrialized World - the remaining countries are strongly weighted in favor of SMS migration. First on the Industrialized World, major countries like Japan and South Korea for example have long since passed the point where more subscribers use SMS than voice calls. And for the Emerging World markets we do not have very strong global data, but for example the India statistics are quite well indicative, that two years ago the voice usage level had already fallen to 70% of all mobile subscribers. It will have fallen much more since then and similar stats are at least anecdotally true of China, Russia, Brazil etc.

So, its time to celebrate. The mobile PHONE is dead, long live Mobile! Not only is the primary need of a mobile today for most people SMS text messaging, rather than voice calls (which would typically happen first, led by heavily addicted mobile users who naturally discover SMS earlier than the laggard and older users) - but now, as of December 2011, in terms of total mobile users worldwide, that transition has also now happened. I will be doing more analysis as I dig through my various data sources and as I update my annual statistical volume for this industry, the TomiAhonen Almanac where I will have my 'formal' and final number for both SMS and voice call users at the end of 2011. But my preliminary number for SMS is about 83% and the voice number is likely to be roughly in the 80% - 82% range on first look. Feel free to report on these phenomena, and unless where reported from other sources, any data here are source: TomiAhonen Consulting December 2011.

For those who still are not sure they fully understand the most widely used communication technology on the planet - back in 2010 SMS had more than twice the total number of users than all of the internet and more than 3x the total number of television sets in the world - you may want to read my 'primer' blog about the basics of SMS text messaging. Please note, obviously the numbers for SMS (and MMS) have grown since.

Incidentially, if you need all the latest stats for the mobile industry, please look at my TomiAhonen Almanac. I always release the new annual edition around the end of January, so the TomiAhonen Almanac 2012 is expected to be released in about a month from now. It only costs 9.99 Euros so its a total bargain for the more than 90 tables and charts that it contains. But also, as is my custom, for those who now buy the previous edition (the 2011 Almanac) with less than a month to go till I announce the next edition - I'll give you both for the price of one. Get the 2011 Almanac now in December, and for the same price, I'll send you the 2012 Almanac also when that is released. To see more please go to the 2011 edition pages to see the table of contents, sample pages, etc at TomiAhonen Almanac 2011.

Comments

[kevin]

Tomi, are there any countries where you can buy just a data plan (i.e., no voice minutes) for your mobile "phone" (as opposed to a tablet or laptop)? If yes, which countries, and what are the restrictions, if any, on the data plan (for example, no VoIP)?

[kevin]

Also, are there any countries/carriers where you can just buy an unlimited SMS plan with no voice minutes for a mobile "phone"?

[darwinphish]

You can do this in Canada. I know a number of people who pay just $5-10 for SMS or get data only starting at $10/month. Voice calls are charged based on usage

In the US you used to be able to buy a device that just did email and SMS.

[@rodrigottr]

@kevin

I believe we are here making more clear Tomi's statement about US being a laggard in mobile. In Brazil at least one or two carries allow you to buy only data or only sms plans.

Mine is a prepaid account who I use only data on my N8 and voice and sms on my dumbphoe.

Data costs 0,50 per day also does sms. Each call for numbers inside The carrier web cost me 0,25 and speak all that I want and calls outside cost me 1,40 per minute.

[Troed Sangberg]

Welcome Tomi - I knew you would join us "it's mobile, not phone" people sooner or later! ;)

http://blogs.sonyericsson.com/troedsangberg/its-not-about-smartphones/

(But yes, I didn't wait for the actual usage data ... and it's still a while before "apps & Internet" will replace text)

[Nick Healey]

I fear the survey wording may have contributed unfairly to the result. It asked "do you use voice calls on your mobile phone". Well, "voice calls" is not a phrase that normal people ever use. It means nothing to them.

There's every chance a significant number of people, who are of course totally clueless about features and jargon, might have thought that the question was asking about some weird "voice call" feature in their phone that they hadn't come across - "voice calls", what are they? - and so answered "no".

"Do you phone people on your mobile (or do people phone you)?" - something along those lines would've been a much better way to say it.

I appreciate that everyone in the biz knows what the question means, and can't imagine it being misinterpreted, but if you spend your days in the world of the clueless masses (as I am lucky enough to do) you'll know only too well...

(101 for this issue: Google's researchers discovering that less than 1 in 12 people know what a "Browser" is - tinyurl.com/whatisabrowser )

[Nick Healey]

...actually, I just realised, the author may not have been quoting the exact text from the survey - despite the single quotes - as I greatly doubt they'd have used the word "SMS" insted of "text messaging" in the other question!

(I hope...)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi kevin, darwinphish, rodrigottr, Troed, Baron, Nick and LeeBase

Hi all, sorry about the lack of responses recently on the blog, but its been that kind of hectic time at my end. Will try to do better.

kevin - absolutely yes, both data only and SMS only. One of first data only packages I saw in Sweden back in about 2004 and the first SMS only data plan really stunned me back in 1999 when I still lived in Finland and thought I understood SMS haha..

darwinphish - thanks for responding to kevin

rodrigottr - thanks for the response too and thanks for the nice Brazil info frm your perspective. Very interesting

Troed - haha yeah. Actually I've been there with you for quite a while already but I know you knew that too. Cheers!

Baron - very good point and you know, when I heard of that change, I also felt the same. If Microsoft didn't like the name 'Windows Mobile' and wanted to change one word - the obvious bad word there, with a lot of negative feelings, is Windows, not Mobile haha. And yes, MS is moving backwards with the naming. but also - yeah, I wouldn't hold my breath either about the iPhone becoming anything renamed any decade soon haha.. its the most iconic mobile device ever.

Nick - thanks and you noticed I didn't mean to quote literally with double quotes, I didn't actually yet have time to dig through the finer points of that report (is part of typical very lenghty detailed Ofcom report. I was initially drawn to the 'delta' ie the changes and spotted thus the voice/SMS phenomenon, and I believe this blog was the world's first published article to celebrate our big milestone).

Lee - haha yeah. In my case I am down to doing about one or two voice calls per week but do dozens of SMS daily. But I'm kind of immature for my age haha..

Thank you all for writing, its a great milestone!

Tomi Ahonen :-)

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Yeah exactly now we should call it smart phone not mobile phone.

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[Office Standard 2010]

So we had not yet seen any international survey of mobile services usage, that somehow measured the national populations, to give national results of both voice usage and SMS usage, that would allow us to compare them side-by-side, in the same methodology, to any meaningful population size.

[Office 2010 Download]

I said this day would come, and I have been monitoring early numbers as they have started to emerge. Still, it took me by surprise that we've already hit the moment of passing the milestone. Its time to stop calling our device a mobile 'phone' (or cell 'phone' etc). The primary use of our mobile device is no longer voice calls! And no, its not that we download apps or surf the mobile internet (those days will also come some day in the future). But the first non-voice service has now passed globally the number of total users that indeed exceeds the number of voice users. I am of course talking of SMS text messaging.

[Price in Pakistan]

Hi Tomi!

it is 100 % true that cells are now a days only use for the sms chatting especially in Pakistan and India. Different networks provides the facilities of different sms + on net mints . i like your article. thankyou for sharing.

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Please reply back as I'm {looking to|trying to|planning to|wanting to|hoping to|attempting to} create {my own|my very own|my own personal} {blog|website|site} and {would like to|want to|would love to} {know|learn|find out} where you got this from or {what the|exactly what the|just what the} theme {is called|is named}. {Thanks|Many thanks|Thank you|Cheers|Appreciate it|Kudos}!| {Hi there|Hello there|Howdy}! This {post|article|blog post} {couldn't|could not} be written {any better|much better}! {Reading through|Looking at|Going through|Looking through} this {post|article} reminds me of my previous roommate! He {always|constantly|continually} kept {talking about|preaching about} this. {I will|I'll|I am going to|I most certainly will} {forward|send} {this article|this information|this post} to him. {Pretty sure|Fairly certain} {he will|he'll|he's going to} {have a good|have a very good|have a great} read. {Thank you for|Thanks for|Many thanks for|I appreciate you for} sharing!| {Wow|Whoa|Incredible|Amazing}! This blog looks {exactly|just} like my old one! It's on a {completely|entirely|totally} different {topic|subject} but it has pretty much the same {layout|page layout} and design. {Excellent|Wonderful|Great|Outstanding|Superb} choice of colors!| {There is|There's} {definately|certainly} {a lot to|a great deal to} {know about|learn about|find out about} this {subject|topic|issue}. {I like|I love|I really like} {all the|all of the} points {you made|you've made|you have made}.| {You made|You've made|You have made} some {decent|good|really good} points there. I {looked|checked} {on the internet|on the web|on the net} {for more info|for more information|to find out more|to learn more|for additional information} about the issue and found {most individuals|most people} will go along with your views on {this website|this site|this web site}.| {Hi|Hello|Hi there|What's up}, I {log on to|check|read} your {new stuff|blogs|blog} {regularly|like every week|daily|on a regular basis}. Your {story-telling|writing|humoristic} style is {awesome|witty}, keep {doing what you're doing|up the good work|it up}!| I {simply|just} {could not|couldn't} {leave|depart|go away} your {site|web site|website} {prior to|before} suggesting that I {really|extremely|actually} {enjoyed|loved} {the standard|the usual} {information|info} {a person|an individual} {supply|provide} {for your|on your|in your|to your} {visitors|guests}? Is {going to|gonna} be {back|again} {frequently|regularly|incessantly|steadily|ceaselessly|often|continuously} {in order to|to} {check up on|check out|inspect|investigate cross-check} new posts| {I wanted|I needed|I want to|I need to} to thank you for this {great|excellent|fantastic|wonderful|good|very good} read!! I {definitely|certainly|absolutely} {enjoyed|loved} every {little bit of|bit of} it. {I have|I've got|I have got} you {bookmarked|book marked|book-marked|saved as a favorite} {to check out|to look at} new {stuff you|things you} post…| {Hi|Hello|Hi there|What's up}, just wanted to {mention|say|tell you}, I {enjoyed|liked|loved} this {article|post|blog post}. It was {inspiring|funny|practical|helpful}. Keep on posting!| I {{leave|drop|{write|create}} a {comment|leave a response}|drop a {comment|leave a response}|{comment|leave a response}} {each time|when|whenever} I {appreciate|like|especially enjoy} a {post|article} on a {site|{blog|website}|site|website} or {I have|if I have} something to {add|contribute|valuable to contribute} {to the discussion|to the conversation}. {It is|Usually it is|Usually it's|It's} {a result of|triggered by|caused by} the {passion|fire|sincerness} {communicated|displayed} in the {post|article} I {read|looked at|browsed}. And {on|after} this {post|article} Communities Dominate Brands: We Are Hitting Major Milestone: Time to stop calling it 'mobile PHONE'. I {{was|was actually} moved|{was|was actually} excited} enough to {drop|{leave|drop|{write|create}}|post} a {thought|{comment|{comment|leave a response}a response}} {:-P|:)|;)|;-)|:-)} I {do have|actually do have} {{some|a few} questions|a couple of questions|2 questions} for you {if you {don't|do not|usually do not|tend not to} mind|if it's {allright|okay}}. {Is it|Could it be} {just|only|simply} me or {do|does it {seem|appear|give the impression|look|look as if|look like} like} {some|a few} of {the|these} {comments|responses|remarks} {look|appear|come across} {like they are|as if they are|like} {coming from|written by|left by} brain dead {people|visitors|folks|individuals}? :-P And, if you are {posting|writing} {on|at} {other|additional} {sites|social sites|online sites|online social sites|places}, {I'd|I would} like to {follow|keep up with} {you|{anything|everything} {new|fresh} you have to post}. {Could|Would} you {list|make a list} {all|every one|the complete urls} of {your|all your} {social|communal|community|public|shared} {pages|sites} like your {twitter feed, Facebook page or linkedin profile|linkedin profile, Facebook page or twitter feed|Facebook page, twitter feed, or linkedin profile}?| {Hi there|Hello}, I enjoy reading {all of|through} your {article|post|article post}. I {like|wanted} to write a little comment to support you.| I {always|constantly|every time} spent my half an hour to read this {blog|weblog|webpage|website|web site}'s {articles|posts|articles or reviews|content} {everyday|daily|every day|all the time} along with a {cup|mug} of coffee.| I {always|for all time|all the time|constantly|every time} emailed this {blog|weblog|webpage|website|web site} post page to all my {friends|associates|contacts}, {because|since|as|for the reason that} if like to read it {then|after that|next|afterward} my {friends|links|contacts} will too.| My {coder|programmer|developer} is trying to {persuade|convince} me to move to .net from PHP. I have always disliked the idea because of the {expenses|costs}. But he's tryiong none the less. I've been using {Movable-type|WordPress} on {a number of|a variety of|numerous|several|various} websites for about a year and am {nervous|anxious|worried|concerned} about switching to another platform. 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IE {still|nonetheless} is the {marketplace|market} {leader|chief} and {a large|a good|a big|a huge} {part of|section of|component to|portion of|component of|element of} {other folks|folks|other people|people} will {leave out|omit|miss|pass over} your {great|wonderful|fantastic|magnificent|excellent} writing {due to|because of} this problem.| {I'm|I am} not sure where {you are|you're} getting your {info|information}, but {good|great} topic. I needs to spend some time learning {more|much more} or understanding more. Thanks for {great|wonderful|fantastic|magnificent|excellent} {information|info} I was looking for this {information|info} for my mission.| {Hi|Hello}, i think that i saw you visited my {blog|weblog|website|web site|site} {so|thus} i came to “return the favor”.{I am|I'm} {trying to|attempting to} find things to {improve|enhance} my {website|site|web site}!I suppose its ok to use {some of|a few of} your ideas!!\