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« How Bad Will Nokia Q4 Be in Smartphones? Worse Than You Thought | Main | Don't Mess With Success! An Analysis of Nokia Carrier-Relations and Meddling by Elop »

December 12, 2011




'The world had 450 Million smartphones in total at the end of 2009. They were all replaced (after we remove new sales) by November 2011 so yes, the number of smartphones in use that are actually older than 23 months is trivial in size, of the magnitude of less than 2% ie won't be noticable.'

Could you calculate what were the installed bases of Symbian^3 and pre-Symbian^3 phones (estimated) at 211 when Elop burned the Nokia platform? This could give us some insight about real usage markes shares at the time. These figures will give us the real potential of the excisting user base waht comes to Application Stores. Real comparision could be made if we had these numbers also of the current time.



I don't really know where the pre-touch-screen user of symbian, but the QT Creator is somekind of not supporting it anymore (You need to download older version to create apps for pre-touch-screen symbian, and it's not being updated anymore).

And pre-symbian^3 also a bit struggling running an apps build with QT Quick (QML) as the RAM is very low, CPU were weak and there were no-GPU. It really amaze me Nokia still selling the 5800 variant and not bringing the Nokia 500 price down to US$ 120 to fight with Samsung Galaxy Y.



I must add,
I think the Nokia ignorant on still selling the S60v3 (non touch symbian) and especially the Symbian^1 devices is killing nokia brand image. It makes nokia identical to bad product.

Nokia still selling the X5-01 @ US$ 180, E5 @ US$ 180, E72 @ US$250, C6-00 @ US$270 while user can get a Nokia 500 @ US$ 200. It really made me made, because I feel Nokia trying to cheat on their user who don't really know what's happened behind Nokia.

At the End.... I think Nokia might lose the respect their user have, because when they compared their US$180 for the already-dead platform (as in the recent version of QT Creator doesn't really supported it anymore, and won't have new apps beside the one already build.), they would kind of angry with Nokia.

Nokia really need to learn android....
Android can differentiate low end and high end, using the same version of OS.
And i think nokia should stop producing all non symbian^3 devices, and re-release it with Symbian^3.



If that is so, then the numbers Tomi gives us about Symbian installed base are seriously flawed. If only S^3 matters then all the rest of Symbian sales are just obsolete what comes to the battle of the ecosystems. And in this case when Elop burned everything at 211 he was actually right in one point. Over 90% of the current Symbian installed base was burning and obsolete. No future for software. No future for developers.

The only installed base mattered were those S*3 devices sold in Q4 and early Q1. A number well bellow 10 million. All the older Symbians are just featurephones or even dumbphones what it comes to the software sales. And that is what matters.



It is absolute because Nokia (perhaps elops??) decide to make it absolute. Nokia could choose to still include the support of S60v3 in their QT creator, and also could choose to use the S^1 as a feature phone platform*. But they didn't.

*I write a couple of time in here and also Nokia Conversations web site saying that rather toss the S60v3/S60v5 platform to the toilet, nokia better downgrade the platform, that's.... remove the multitasking (thus requiring less CPU & RAM) to replace the aging S40. WHY?? because it would make nokia solution great from low to high glued with 1 developer platform.... QT.

It is a shame that nokia would throw away QT, and RIM were ready to embraced it.



Those S^1 handsets are too limited with ram. Also without capasitive touchscreen they are not very viable what comes to developing software for them. Qt can't change this as the market has been shifting towards features those devices are missing.

Future S^1 devices on the other hand would be just featurephones with old software and very limited future as Nokia is focusing to S^3. I see no point in that as Meltemi is going to replace S40 anyway.

The problem is that only S^3 is still viable when speaking about software and applications for Symbian handsets. S^1 has just become obsolete. S^1 installed base should not be included in the numbers when we are talking about Symbian installed base viable to application developers. And this was and is the situation with or without Elop. Nokia destroyed Symbian installed base because of S^1 far before Elop burned the platform. There is no blaiming Elop for that.

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Yeah exactly this data is really showing progress. Nice keep it up.


Hi Tomi,

"It is survey data conducted by Ipsos for Google. They measured for most countries the proportion of smartphones used by actual mobile phone subscribers, so its not a national per-capita rate for smartphones"

A couple of points.

- I'm a little confused as to how you come to the conclusion above (I can't find anything to corroborate publicly)

- If this is so, your analysis as far as I can tell takes the Google data to calculate smartphone users on an absolute basis of the Informa population figures and then uses the Informa penetration rate to adjust to per capita. However, the informa data uses total mobile penetration as far as I can tell. (including WBB) So from a handset perspective, the per capita numbers are a little overstated, as the penetration rate of handset subs in each country would be lower and therefore the adjustment less.

Am I correct in asserting this?



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I went through the data for Singapore (90% smartphone penetration), and I can't seem to find your number of 4.4M smartphones. Informa states it as 3,737,600, and Ipsos states the % as 62%.

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I rolled my eyes. "Grandmother, many people like it that way."

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Good statistics. I think smartphones equipped with Android is more widely used as it is more user-friendly than other OS.




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I think this is best post I've ever read .. amazing wonderful

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Taking into regard that almost 40 million South Africans has a IQ proven to be below 80, it is a wonder that even simple phones have penetrated as much as they have. Althoug there are a few village idiots running around with smart phone, the functionality will never be comprehended by the user.


Do you have any data on recent smartphone vs. other mobile phone growth rates in developed vs. developing countries?

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Thanks for the great info!

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Grandmother, many people like it that way

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very nice article

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100% per-capita penetration rate of smartphones within a few years from now. The rest of the world will follow according to that table, but clearly in the rest of the world

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