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« Smartphones Form Book 2012 part 1: for Samsung it is 'Leadwatch' | Main | The Convergence of Megatrends? When All Roads Lead to 'Mobile' »

December 30, 2011

Comments

David Doherty

Thanks for your reply Tomi,

"It is trying to distort the world view" I think it's fair to say that Apple it's pretty much accomplished this and I can't imagine it'll stop pedaling the new world view as it's proving very effective at consolidating the smartphone market.

The most attractive bit about the alternate 4-5% "Rolls Royce" strategy is that the telcos just can't compete with it so it's a relatively easy win. As soon as they start going a bit "VW" that iMessage, iBill, iCall, iETC, is going to get them alienated nearly as quickly as you can say Skype!

PS This form book series is developing into something much better than even I was expecting... can't wait for more!

whally

Tomi,

What was the market share of the iPhone in 2008? 2009? 2010? 2011?

Look at the complete mobile phones market. Smart and dumb combined. How big was iPhone in 2011, maybe 8-9% global market share or close to it?

When you look at smart+dumb combined you can see that Apple has been gaining more and more market share all the time. And those are the correct numbers to watch if you think that mobile phones is the thing that matters.

whally

Yes,

That could be so. At the moment the whole mobile market is growing so much slower compared to the iPhone. Apple is gaining more and more marketshare from the mobile market. At the same time all analysts are comparing Apple's growth numbers to the portion of the market - smartphones. If one wants to see how Apple is doing in mobile, one should compare Apple to the mobile. Not just segment of it.

And you are right about using numbers that way. When talked about how small Apple is, then the numbers from the whole market are picked. When compared Apple's growth the numbers from the whole mobile market is used. Why not to use the same numbers all the time?

BTW: I was almost the only one Tomi did not answer to. With that on my mind.

David Doherty

Thanks for your reply Tomi,

"It is trying to distort the world view" I think it's fair to say that aside from with mobile industry insiders Apple has pretty much accomplished this and I can't imagine it'll stop pedaling the new world view as it's proving very effective at consolidating the smartphone market eg. lots of brands are now (wrongly) going for Apple first mobile strategies.

The most attractive bit about the alternate 4-5% "Rolls Royce" strategy is that the telcos just can't compete with it so it's a relatively easy win. I think that as soon as they start going a bit "VW" that iMessage, iBill, iCall, iETC, is going to get them alienated nearly as quickly as you can say Skype!

PS This form book series is developing into something much better than even I was expecting... can't wait for more!

RJC

@whally

"Look at the complete mobile phones market. Smart and dumb combined. How big was iPhone in 2011, maybe 8-9% global market share or close to it?"

I don't know where you get that kind of numbers, but iPhone is nowhere near 8-9% share of the global mobile phone market. It's about half of that, around 4-5%.

From Gartner:

Worldwide Mobile Terminal Sales to End Users (Thousands of Units):

1Q11:
Apple = 16,883.2
Total = 427,846

2Q11:
Apple = 19,628.8
Total = 428,661.2

3Q11:
Apple = 17,295.3
Total = 440,502.2

Apple's market share:
1Q11: 3.9%
2Q11: 4.6%
3Q11: 3.9%

4Q11 info is not released yet, but Apple would probably have sell about 85 million units (and taking ~19% market share) in the 4th quarter to raise it's market share for whole year to 8-9%. That's practically impossible.

whally

RJC,

Yeah, that should have been 4-5%. Just a simple error I made.

But, looking at the numbers that way you can see that Apple has been steadily gaining market share all the time.

Michael Demetriou

I think Apple started to realize this and their first move is to increase their range from two models to three. The 3GS is still sold. I agree though that this is selling obsolescence and I have constantly urged friends who always wanted to jump on the apple bandwagon but found iPhones too expensive to stay away from a three year old model that spec-wise is inferior than really cheap competitors from ZTE or Huaweii. Of course the phones the Chinese manufacturers have to offer have inferior build quality and close-to-nil brand value but this still isn't enough to close the 300euro price gap.

KPOM

Apple sold 37 million iPhones last quarter.

Office Standard 2010

What Apple now has to do, as Porsche did, when it noticed it had reached a natural limit of its sports-car oriented product range - is to expand it. A few years back, Porsche introduced its SUV model which became Porsche's bestselling model. That is what I argue for Apple. I WANT Apple to return to giant growth in its market share. And that can only be done now, with the split of its model range. I return to this picture.

Office 2010 Download

The only major hassle being forced upon Apple in 2011 was by the carrier community - the delay of the new model launch from late June to mid October. What we originally expected as an 'iPhone 5' was planned to be the first Apple smartphone without a physical SIM card - but the carriers revolted and told Apple in no uncertain terms, that such a phone would never be supported. Apple had to rush back to the design table and came up with what is pretty modest upgrades to the iPhone which we know now as the iPhone 4S. Nonetheless, the iPhone 4S is obviously the best iPhone yet, and will set new Apple sales records in Q4 and Q1.

Georgiana

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