First look into Lumia launch and preliminary prospects for market success

Yeah, its yet another Nokia blog article. But this is genuine Bloodbath news and is a big story and it deserves a fair look. So this blog is not Tomi ranting about Elop madness. This is my first view to the Nokia Lumia launch and preliminary glances into its market share performance. And you know what? We have a mixed bag. Some good news, some bad news. Spoken like a true consultant, eh?

MASSIVE MOMENT FOR INDUSTRY

So. Yes we start with the historical view. Nokia invented the smartphone. Nokia's primary smartphone OS has been Symbian up to this quarter. While Nokia had flirted with other OS options in the past, the CEO announced in February that Symbian would be replaced by Microsoft Windows Phone OS, and nine months later we had the first Nokia branded smartphone using the Microsoft OS being sold. The Lumia 800 is now spreading to more markets.

A moment if you will allow it, please. So, Nokia had invented this industry and had held a dominating market lead every single year, every single quarter, every single month and every single week and every single day, ever since. Up to February when the CEO announced his intended replacement OS. So yes, even then, Nokia warned everybody that this year (and 2012) would be years of adjustment and Nokia's short-term market performance would take a hit. That is inevitable in this kind of transition. But now we have in essense 'Nokia Smartphones 2.0' haha. This is the true second generation of Nokia's smartphones. This is as big to the industry as when Sony launched PlayStation 2, or when Microsoft went from DOS to Windows. Not many were around to remember Windows 1.0 (was horrid) and few can remember that it wasn't until Windows 3.0 that Microsoft delivered any kind of major market succes, and Windows 3.1 was the first that was considered reasonably bug-free and user-friendly (but even then, not a match to the Macintosh of the time).

Sony took Playstation 2 to new heights in dominating the home console gaming world. Microsoft grew its global market size as it shifted from DOS to Windows. Nokia had 29% market share before it announced this transition. Theoretically there is nothing to prevent us from believing, that Nokia might achieve that level at some point once again, on this new WP7 platform. What we have to do, obviously, is now to monitor this period of transition to see clues to how well Nokia's new platform might perform. And that Symbian still outsells WP7 by a wide margin is no inherent flaw - so too did PS One outsell Playstation 2 for a long while, as did DOS outsell early Windows for years. But a transition to a new platform is no guarantee that the market-leading position is carried. That same timing of DOS that allowed Microsoft to transition to Windows, was also used by IBM to transition from DOS to OS/2 (a kind of Windows clone or Macintosh OS clone) which failed. And while Sony was able to hold its market lead going to Playstation 2, the next transition to Playstation 3 saw Sony losing its market lead.

In any case, the first sales of Nokia Lumia800 smartphones is a huge event for Nokia and notwithstanding this year's short-term stumbles by the former smartphone-maker juggernaut, this is also a major event for the global smartphone industry. And considering Nokia is still by a wide margin the world's biggest handset maker, and Microsoft is (by an even wider margin) the world's biggest OS maker, their partnership has the potential to produce a powerful entrant to the market.

GOOD NEWS

So lets start with the news. Lumia710 the second Lumia series smartphone was initially announced by Nokia to be available in the first half of 2012 (meaning end of Q2). Nokia then did something it very very rarely has managed before - it underpromised and overdelivered - it launched the Lumia710 also this month just before Christmas. So now Nokia has two actual Microsoft Windows Phone based Lumia smartphones shipping and selling, while both Lumia800 and Lumia710 are available only in limited countries. Still, this is a rare treat by Nokia which has become known much more for chronic delays. Congratulations!

The Lumia710 is a modest-price smartphone, the little brother to the Lumia800 so its hardly going to make the world excited about Nokia's comeback but it is a second smartphone in the line of Lumia and helps Nokia get more sales volume and market share. And its actual sales levels will be nominal during the last days of December in only a few countries, but that will ramp up during Q1 of 2012.

And there is more good news. T-Mobile USA will launch the Lumia710. Why not the Lumia800 is what everybody was saying, the Lumia710 is really a cut-price model that speaks of discount brand product but hey, at least it is one carrier in the USA. T-Mobile is the smallest and weakest of the four carriers but yes, this is a start perhaps. The timing is most unfortunate for the Lumia series, as the Lumia710 launches in February - right smack in the time when all stores are overstocked with after-Christmas products at deep discounts. The Lumia710 will fare VERY poorly against discounted iPhones, Galaxies, Blackberries and Xperias etc. But yes, at least Elop has found one US carrier to offer one Lumia, next year. It is something and this is definitely some good news.

BAD NEWS

So then onto the bad news side. First, a survey of consumer preferences by BNP Paribas of the European Lumia launch countries. Remember Nokia's smartphone market share there a year ago was about 35% to 40% and thus most 'normobs' ie normal people who might wander into a phone store now in December 2011, would have bought their previous phone around the summer or autumn of 2010, when Nokia was still strong. Those customers would have (or should have) a natural tendency to ask for a Nokia branded smartphone - perfectly oblivious to the Symbian/MeeGo/WP drama we technologists may obsess about - and should therefore have some natural market share near 35% or so. What did BNP Paribas find? Only 2% of current smartphone buyers in the launch countries of Lumia were interested in buying a Nokia Lumia smartphone. Note if you don't live in those countries, the Lumia marketing blitz - paid for by massive Microsoft marketing budget and by Elop's personal commitment to push Lumia hard - so the Lumia marketing blitz would be unavoidable. In Britain for example, Lumia is the sole sponsor of one cable TV channel haha. One of the operators/carriers is giving away a free Xbox360 gaming console for everybody who buys the Lumia800. And yet, customers who had owned a Nokia and had heard that Nokia was now launching Lumia with Microsoft - resulted in only 2% wanting to buy one. That is a huge fail. Many major analysts have downgraded their market performance for Lumia in Q4, often slashing sales expectations by half.

Then there is management delusion. Nokia Sales Director Niels Munksgaard said that the youth are "fed up with iPhones" (!!!) Wow. Lets go to the scoreboard. In the UK - a neutral market neither Apple's nor Nokia's home market, but one where Lumia has been broadly launched and has massive marketing push - how much are they tired of the iPhone? Gfk surveyed the UK market two weeks ago and the bestselling smartphone heading into Chrismas was.. the iPhone 4S. Apple had several iPhones on the chart. Samsung's Galaxy was at number two and Blackberry had several models on the list. Nokia's Lumia 800 ? Did not make the Top 10 - and neither did any other Nokia (Symbian) based smartphone either. Last Christmas the hot Nokia N8 was the top seller this time in Britain. So. Nokia Lumia managers are now living in some alternate universe utterly disconnected from reality. Fed up with iPhones? Come on.

Then Microsoft. Steve Ballmer must be proud of his Windows Phone team. Or not. He demoted the President of the Windows Phone unit, Andy Lees to 'an unspecified role'. This, say Redmond-watchers, is how Ballmer castrates those top managers who are too visible to be fired. But yes, Microsoft's CEO is so disgusted by 2011 performance of his mobile unit that the unit boss is effectively fired. This right as the Nokia Lumia phones, Microsoft's last play into mobile - are being launched - perfectly on schedule and with no reported bugs! So its the market side of WP that is utterly failing according to Ballmer's view, not the technical or roll-out schedule sides of the software.

But there is still more trouble in Lumialandia. Some customers started to complain about rapidly disappearing battery life or even batteries that stop recharging. This has a small whiff of Antennagate. So yes, we heard from Nokia - official announcement - yes, Lumia has battery problems and those will be fixed by software early in 2012. Ouch. So now sales reps have a brand new reason to tell their customers, you know what, the Nokia Lumia has battery problems, you might want to steer away from that. Let me show you a nice Android phone here from HTC or Samsung..

Oh, I hate to say I told you so, but the Lumia was a rush job. I said that this would result in production problems that Nokia was just trying to move away from. And even worse, obviously, as the Microsoft phones are not made in Nokia factories, the Nokia Lumia800 (and 710) are not even 'real' Nokia phones, they are Compal phones with a Nokia badge glued on. Even the guts are not traditional Nokia as Microsoft's Windows Phone is not compatible with some of Nokia's standard components like the CPU. So its like Porsche went to Tata and asked them to make some Tata sportscars and then put a Porsche badge on them. Not Porsche models built by Tata, not Posche engines, nothing. Yeah, this was going to be a problem and there will be more such issues I am sure. I do weep, however, that Nokia produces smartphones in Taiwan by a third-party factory while Nokia's world-leading mobile phone production capability in the most advanced factories is running at half-capacity..

Then about the sales reps. A press story from Britain tells of the customer service rep who had told a customer that Android phones cannot get viruses but Windows phones can. Now, first of all, obviously any smartphone can get viruses so that was obviously utterly false statement. Secondly, I am sure it was not 'taught' to the sales force to say about Lumia. But third - it was a genuine bit of advice that some customer service rep in Britain had been saying - no doubt to many potential Lumia customers (who will then tell their friends etc). And if one person thinks this, there will be many more who also believe it. This image comes no doubt from the PC side, where Windows is notorious for viruses. (Yet another reason why the Windows Phone branding is so stupid by Microsoft).

The bad news continues online. Two people, one from Nokia and one from Microsoft were caught having been going to legitimate reviews of Lumia800 handsets and posting very hostile comments where they found negative mentions by the reviewer. Both posted anonymously but were traced to come from Nokia and Microsoft offices. Ouch! This is something the blogosphere takes very seriously and the tech press has picked up on the story and all are strongly condemning this practise. This will hurt both Nokia and Microsoft credibility and good will. Not what you want at your first product commerical launch.

And then there are weird 'statistics' the most odd is a 'study' by 'Customer Think' which claims to take in the opinions of a massive 82,600 customers of smartphones (wow). And they find that Windows Phone has the best customer satisfaction of any OS. Now, I would be willing to accept that kind of finding but look what else this 'study' claims. This is strongly USA-biased in its survey population, bear that in mind. First, it finds that by 'customer satisfaction' Blackberry is better than both iPhone and Android? What? Blackberry has been crashing in the US market. But maybe an anomaly. Next, lets look at cameras. They found that on individual smartphone models, the Blackberry Torch has a better camera and video than.. the Nokia N8 ! Wot? Then, take this. On 'apps' the Blackberry Torch is AHEAD of the iPhone 4S ???????

I repeat myself: ??????? This is an utter bullsh*t 'study' that produces absolutely wild findings. But I bet that 'study' will be repeated in many stories as if Microsoft Windows Phone has the best customer satisfaction of any smartphone OS haha. There is some very serious reality distortion going on right now in the Nokia+Microsoft camp around Lumia, I tell you. 

HOW ABOUT RETAIL

So then a bit of very informal market research. When I had a visit to Britain a few weeks ago on business, I visited a shopping center and saw several phone shops. One (Orange) had the Lumia 800 prominently in one window display. Another store (T-Mobile) had no Lumia window display. And the independent phone store Carphone Warehouse had Lumia in one but the iPhone 4S in the other window, very much prompting the comparison of the Lumia800 vs iPhone 4S where Lumia falls on every measure - exactly what Nokia does not want consumers to do with the Lumia800. (the N9 would have stood well against the iPhone 4S but Nokia refuses to sell the N9 in Britain haha).

Then I took a bit more time to see the shops here in Hong Kong earlier this week. The Lumia800 is being sold by all major networks. How is it in the stores. I went to four shops of the local carriers/operators and two independents. The China Mobile store had plenty of Nokia basic and smartphone models in the store but they were all in the back. There was one Lumia800 model in the store display near the front but after the hot phones. No Nokia in window display. The PCCW store had plenty of Nokia basic and smartphones in the displays and also several Nokia phones including Lumia800 in the window display among many other Nokia phones, in roughly the same proportion as their other phone brands in the store. This was most like all mobile phone stores used to be in Hong Kong last year. SmarTone had only a few basic Nokia phones in the store far in the back, ut had two separate Lumia models. SmarTone had one Lumia800 quite prominently in the window display but no other Nokia phones there among many rival phones. The Three store had only three Nokia handsets in the whole store but one of them was the Lumia800. No Nokia phones in the window display.

Then the two independent stores. The Fortress store had many Nokia phones, cheap and smartphone but only at the very back of the store behind all other brands. In their window display Lumia800 was the only Nokia phone on display among many rival phones. Then at the Wilson store there were plenty of Nokia phones well among the rival phones, and Lumia800 was there too. But the window display did have a Windows Phone based phone - by Acer. No Lumia in the window display.

This is Elop's grand strategy to dominate the world with Microsoft-money on his amazing once-in-a-career type of situation to launch a totally new OS for what was at the time of the announcement the world's biggest smartphone maker. Wow. And how underwhelming. I've seen bigger new product launches by Motorola haha. And by the way, here in Hong Kong the pre-eminent phone everywhere is not the iPhone, its the Galaxy. Everywhere. HTC runs a good second.

MY VERDICT

This is the most important event Nokia has had in years. This is Mr Elop's career making-or-breaking event. This is the most important event for Microsoft's aspirations in mobile at least for a year. And the timing of the launch, the countries of the launch, the carriers/operators of the launch - the announcement of the partnership - etc - were all up to Elop. This is totally Elop's show. He had billions of dollars to waste on this initiative and a year to plan it and execute it perfectly. And he is failing spectacularly. The consumer survey from Europe that only 2% of consumers want to buy Lumia - when more than a third of them currently hold Nokia phones and Lumia is on every TV screen - is dismal. The actual sales performance from Britain is horrid news. The individual stories from sales rep 'virus' stories to now the Nokia version of antennagate - come on, Batteries? Really! Nokia which like an idiot abandoned a competitive advantage of providing user-replacable batteries - is now drawing attention to this drawback and obviously pushing customers to Androids (this Samsung Mr Customer, by the way, also has a replacable battery! I don't mean to suggest the Samsung will have any problem with its battery but that Lumia you are considering does have problems with its battery - Nokia itself has admitted it..). And my very informal and not statistically relevant survey shows quite consistently that Lumia is not anywhere near as prominent in the stores as Nokia used to be. Is there still a carrier boycott vs Nokia (and/or vs Microsoft and Skype) or is it accident. But I can tell you the signs are VERY bad. The Lumia sales for Q4, the critical Christmas season - and Nokia's other smartphone sales in its shadow - are going to disappoint. Disappoint heavily. So say all the early signs. All of them. There is so far no news that suggest Nokia is outperforming the modest launch expectations and Nokia is millions off from its previous new OS launch of Symbian S^3 and the N8 which did 4 million sales Q4 of last year. The Lumia is lucky to do one million haha and some analysts say half a million.

If the N8 can do 4 million last year, and the market is 60% bigger today, and the Lumia800 is 20% cheaper than the N8, and you get all the Microsoft goodies (like free Xbox360s) - then Elop should deliver 7 million at a minimum this Christmas. Even if he did only 4 million it is a huge flop for Nokia's most important product launch of the decade. But the signs suggest it will be brutal, and yes I would not be surprised if the Lumia numbers are below one million. If that is the case, I am sure Elop will be so ashamed that he will not release the number (and neither will Ballmer).

So for those Nokia-optimists who hoped Lumia will bring Nokia back, sorry. That won't happen. Nokia's world-record crash of destroying its own market will continue in Q4 and Lumia will only make matters worse.

Comments

[karlim]

Mostly agree about how Lumia will fare in Q4 2011. The sales will be very small, especially if we compare them to how N8 did last year in Q4.

Where I do disagree is what it will mean in measuring the success in overall Nokia WP strategy. Doing 1:1 comparison between N8 sales (4 million in Q4 2010) to Lumia is not really fair.

Mainly Nokia sold N8 during the whole 3 months of Q4 2010, while it only started shipping Lumia 800 on November 16th. So the sales period we are comparing for Lumia is only half of what N8 had last year. Now - one can argue that sales in Q4 are heavily tilted towards the second part of the quarter, when Christmas shopping really lifts things up. But I think that pent up demand Nokia N8 had last year, and the huge preorders for it in Q3 2010 at least balance this out.

Just to equalize for the number of days in a quarter that both devices were sold - we have to do 2:1 comparison to be fair. Which will mean that if Nokia manages to sell 2 million Lumias, the comparative sales will be at least on par with how Nokia did with N8 launch last year.

Then we have the problem that Lumia is available in much lower number of markets than N8 was available in. Part of it is the lack of Windows Phone OS localization - you can't, or at least you don't want to sell a phone in the market where it is not localized. Part of it might be production capacity - to be able to ship Lumia this year Nokia wasn't able yet to retool its factories and went to Compal. Part of it is some skepticism from carriers about new Nokia device. Maybe something else too. But the fact is that the availability footprint for Lumia is several times smaller then that of N8 last year. And given that - even 1 million new WP devices shipped should be a pretty good number for Nokia.

Also Elop and Nokia management were always very clear with its promises about Nokia WP volumes for this year. They never promised big volumes and time and time again said that they do not plan for them this year. They always insisted that this will be an introductory, and limited availability launch, with real volume shipments starting next year. And if Digitimes reports are correct - they have only ordered 2 million or even less Lumias from Compal for this year.

Btw, Nokia Lumia 800 is not 25% cheaper then N8. N8 recommended retail price at launch was 370EUR, while Lumia's RRP is 420 Euro. (Both before taxes and subsidies). So Lumia is actually 50EUR more expensive then N8 at launch.

[Bob Shaw]

I think it is far premature to judge Stephen Elop or for that matter any CEO before they have a chance to implement a major part of their strategy. Mr. Elop as well as other Nokia spokespersons have repeatedly said that they plan for volume shipments of Nokia Windows Phone in 2012. In February, 2011 when this new strategy was announced, they were not even promising the launch of Nokia Windows Phone in 2011. We have to give them credit that they were able to launch Nokia Windows Phone in 2011, a remarkable fast execution by Nokia standards. I think one can only judge whether the strategy of Mr. Elop to go with Windows Phone has been the right one, a year from now.

[Jo]

lumia 800 also had more marketing that n8.

anything below 4m is utter failure. but i think it may barely do 1m. which is a huge failure.

considering how nokia n9 doing 250k just in Finland alone

[Earendil Star]

I believe astroturfing is not going on only on moneylife.in ...
Quite a lot of it seems going on in this blog as well...
Tomi should start checking IP addresses...

Although I do not know how MS's Lumia will fare in the end, I totally support Tomi's view on the issue.

Clearly THT Elop is pursuing the agenda of his own former employer: MS, not Nokia.

Furthermore, it is no way that Nokia can expect to be as profitable as it was in the past, being now reduced to be a mere MS OEM for a commoditized WP.

Many trolls complain about Tomi and the different commenters criticizing THT Elop: but noone replies on the facts being discussed, which are indisputable.

So far I have read of NO convincing evidence that the WP strategy was best for Nokia. In fact, only confirmation that this strategy is of no benefit to Nokia, and carries potential positives only for MS.

Yes, THE REAL BURNING PLATFORM WAS IN FACT WP, not Nokia's one.

Stating that Nokia had to go WP because it had no other option is ridiculous, but more importantly, mere value judgement, not a fact. Actual numbers tell a different story.

[AtTheBottomOfTheHilton]

This is what I think will happen when it comes to Lumia 800. Right now both Microsoft and Nokia is spending a lot of money on advertising the Lumia 800 and I it will initially pay off. Some people will buy Lumia 800 and other WP7 phones.

After a few months from now the novelty of Nokia WP7 will wear off and it will fail to sell in any significant numbers. If you look at the attraction of WP7, it is very low. I've tested WP7 and every time I've done so I have become bored or irritated and moved on. WP7 has in reality very little to offer compared to Android or iPhone. The market will default back to Android, iPhone and the rest after the eager attempt by Microsoft. Basically WP7 has no content and is uncomfortable to use. Every time I have to wait for those transition animations, I get irritated and beyond that eye candy there is not much to offer. MS has positioned WP7 too close to iPhone where MS has no chance to penetrate. Geeks will get Androids because that's where all the cool and powerful HW is. People who used Symbian will go to Android because with WP7 they would feel limited. Even Windows Mobile was more fun because you could do lots of hacks and there was a lot of available SW. Where is WP7 in all this? It's another Zune.

I think Lumia 800 will initially sell well because of the novelty and because it was released during christmas. After that the sales will decline quickly because people will realize which utter crap WP7 really is. In total after a year or so I think they were able to sell about 2 million units.

[cycnus]

Hi Tomi,

I think you should start writing a book about Elop and the fall of nokia. If the situation got worse and elop got kicked, or nokia in big trouble, your book could be one of the textbook for future MBA class. and could also be enlightenment guide for those who don't know what really happened inside nokia.

[incognito]

On to the second point, which you briefly mentioned in the comments, about the Qt and that Elop should've insisted for it to be integral part of the WP7. That wouldn't happen, no matter of the stakes, that's why it was never brought up in the negotiations. Microsoft would be crazy to allow that, and Ballmer is a lot of things but certainly not crazy. Qt is a direct and most serious competitor to Microsoft's own .NET, and where it particularly shines in comparison to the latter is - on hardware limited and/or battery operated devices. .NET is essentially a 'Javaesque' approach - do a fast bytecode compiling and then have an interpreter on the targeted platform(s) to run it. From the app-stack structural point of view, Android and .NET have plenty things in common and the biggest problem with Android is also the biggest problem with .NET-only WP - no native code execution (except in very special cases). This is also the reason why WP cannot really scale down to the more limited hardware (and thus lower device cost) while keeping its fluidity, and that is why Microsoft is so strict when it comes to hardware requirements.

Qt, on the other hand, has a totally opposite approach - it makes you recompile everything for the targeted platform in order to achieve as-close-to-native-as-possible execution thus being able to run rather complex apps on anything - from supercomputers to $50 set-top boxes. That's why Nokia's strategy with Qt was probably one of their smartest decisions in their recent history, and even more remarkable - they made the final decision in the period where they were practically making an error after an error. But that's inherently incompatible with the Microsoft way. There really isn't a viable way to reconcile the WP approach with Qt, without heavily cannibalizing the former that is. If Nokia insisted on it, Microsoft would go seek somebody else, plain and simple. They just cannot afford having a competitive development stack, which they don't own and/or control, flourishing and being promoted on their own, heavily controlled platform. If Qt was given the 1st class citizen place in the WP arena, one would have to be crazy to develop for WP in .NET - the former would grant you far better performance, much more wiggle room and cross-platform compatibility, which would be disastrous to Microsoft's own 'ecosystem'. It's far more serious problem than Apple allowing Adobe Flash on their platform, and we know how Apple went guns blazing against it.

If I am to put my tin-foil hat and contemplate that Elop is indeed Microsoft's trojan, I'd find it far more plausable that Elop was sent to destroy the Qt strategy than to destroy Symbian and Maemo/MeeGo. Qt is much bigger of a treat to Microsoft than some operating system.

[incognito]

And the third point, the one we completely disagree on - and I think I've already mentioned it in some of your earlier posts - the Skype vs carriers problem, or rather the hate of it by the carriers. I really don't think it's that much of a problem, and while carriers might hate it, they are destined to become pure data providers sooner or later, just as their older brothers from the landline telco business became essentially ISPs, so I don't think they would make their business decisions on hate towards Skype. They still charge a hefty amount of money for data plans, and with data caps and so on in many cases it is much cheaper to use the plain ol' voice plan than to use Skype for your calls (and in most cases you don't even have reliable enough network to have Skype replace your voice calls anyway).

Even if that was true then you often contradict yourself by saying that Nokia should've went with Maemo/MeeGo instead of the WP - both, the Maemo 5 of the N900, and MeeGo Harmattan of the N9/N950 have the best Skype integration out of all the OSes out there - they literally treat Skype calls the same way they treat regular GSM voice calls - if it wasn't for the icon showing up on the call screen you would not be able to distinguish Skype calls from voice calls. Actually, even Skype-dedicated phones themselves out there don't achieve that level of integration. So, if carriers would hate WP because of Microsoft and their recent Skype purchase, they ought to loath the N9. And let's not forget that the WP, unlike iOS, Android, BBOS, Symbian and Maemo/MeeGo, doesn't even have Skype support yet.

Long story short - I highly doubt that carriers hate WP because of the Microsoft ties with Skype.

[Sander van der Wal]

Ballmer would never sign a deal in which WP was commoditized by having Qt on top of it. It would have meant the end of Microsoft's Mobile strategy. And probably the end of Ballmer as Microsoft's CEO.

Elop's problems were bigger than Ballmer's so Elop caved in.

And the notion that Qt supports Android properly is a bit preposterous. A couple of hobbyists getting the code to compile on Android is very different from having a fully supported API that is as good as the native one. Nokia with all its resources did not manage to get Qt working properly on Symbian in three years. A bunch of random people get Qt ready on android ready in a couple of weeks? Yeah, right.

[n900lover]

I would also add that Qt is free source, and in the bad (for ms) "viral" way. I think hell freezes over before ms allows central library of their platform to be under gpl license.

[cycnus]

@n900lover

I agree that MS hates free/open source, and won't support/embrace it in any way. Thus QT is a virus for MS.

[Earendil Star]

@ Karlim, let's be frank, you are trying to bias judgements on Lumia' success vs the N8. This is why:
- launch was earlier for the N8, but in many markets it was not by much, e.g. the UK three weeks
- why preorders count for the N8 and should be disregarded for the Lumia? Do you fear that no-one preordered the Lumia?
- you are forgetting that the market is hugely larger now than it was in 2010. A proper comparison should consider this (as Tomi said) and adjust for the growth (+60%)
- the marketing arm behind Lumias by MS and its Nokia division is huge compared to what happened to the N8
- regarding the fact that the N8 could be sold in a much higher number of markets, that was a distinctive plus of the Symbian ecosystem: worldwide availability and localisation. It is a known WP weakness that it is only available and localised in a few markets. Just a further proof of how useless for Nokia (being strong worldwide but weak in the States) this WP move was. Lower Lumia sales would just be a fair reflection of this weakness, but do not worry: MS is working to reduce this handicap in the future by scavenging Nokia's know how and expand WP's locales.
- yes, you are right. The bulk of sales in Q4 normally come in the second half of the period, therefore much smaller advantage for the N8...
- MS and its Nokia arm were very clear on volumes... yeah, but the real winners like Google and Apple tend to surprise on the upside...
Summarising: stating that a fair comparison would be for Lumia to reach half of the sales of the N8 is ludicrous.
The correct comparison is the one Tomi indicated: 7 million Lumias is the number to be reached for it to be considered as successful as the N8.

But then, why all the fuss about Lumias and WPs? Everybody knows it will be quickly ditched by MS as soon as Windows 8 becomes available, possibly with no migration path from WP, as happened with WM.

@ Bob Shaw, in the current ITC environment things develop pretty fast... HP got rid of it's former CEO in a couple of months... they did not need to wait years to draw their own conclusions. Markets and success may turn in a matter of months, as Nokia is a living example of, and there is no time to waste.
Well, I know, for THT Elop things are different: you cannot go against what your parent company orders, especially when you are so successful in delivering what was requested: a couple of WPs on Compal, er, I meant Nokia hardware for the 2011 holiday season... THT Elop must be proud of his success and thus must be very relaxed: he achieved his goal and his bonus will be paid.

To all: when taking sides with THT Elop and the current Nokia strategy, or complaining about "rants" against THT Elop, do not just say: "it was the only move", "Symbian was doomed", "we should wait and see", and all this nonsense. These are personal beliefs, not explanations.
Rather, answer this question: do you think Nokia will ever be significantly profitable, as it used to be, by becoming a monopsonist OEM?
If the answer is no, then you have already understood why the current course of action by Nokia only makes sense to MS.

[Patrick]

- Fact 1 : The teachers of secondary schools that I spoke to recently in Belgium are saying exactly the same thing as the NOKIA executives : teenagers are starting to consider iPhones as "old dad" phones, thus "not cool".
- Fact 2 : As far as I know, only in the UK, the iPhone gained marketshare, in the rest of Europe, it lost marketshare. Why only take the examples that show how badly Nokia (read Elop) is doing ?

[Patrick]

@Earendill Star

"Everybody knows WP will be quickly ditched by MS as soon as Windows 8 becomes available"
LOL, then I'm probably the only person on earth who does not know this or does not believe this. Moreover, it makes completely no sense.

"Rather, answer this question: do you think Nokia will ever be significantly profitable, as it used to be"
For your information, the world changed A LOT since the iPhone and Android came on the market.
Yet, yes I believe that Nokia can become highly profitable again by continuing the path they started, if they use their wits and intelligence.
As big as before ? Probably not, since there is REAL competition now in the (smart)phone market, in contrary to the 10 years before the iPhone.

[Pökö]

Jo, your don't have any clue whats going on. N9 isn't "doing" any 250k in Finland. Where have you received such a false information.

And secondly, N8 sales is not comparable to Lumia sales. Lumia was launched in middle of November as N8 was on sale whole Q4. And N8 launch was worldwide as Lumia only in six countries. I would say one million Lumias for Q4 would be success.

Also Lumia800 has been out of stock in many stores so Nokia might even have some problems getting phones from Compal.

[laowaijoha]

Tomi, I think you need to give lumia some more time to show what it's capable of. The sources you quoted are in my opinion overly pessimistic, and a bit unbalanced, as there are plenty of reports suggesting the contrary about the initial success of lumia 800 in some european countries. I agree with karlim earlier that the comparison is unfair, and needs to be considered a bit more level-headedly.
You quote some dubious bloggings, for example about MS and Nokia employees astroturfing in India. That blogger has zero credibility and is extremely unproffessional in his methods and claims. What happens on some Indian no-name websites is of no consequence to either company, other than they should emphasize the following of their corporate code of conduct. Of course it makes a juicy story for technoblog vultures.
Tomi you have always had a provocative way of forming arguments but here you need to balance your sources out a bit and not rush your conclusions.

[ノースフェイス]

グランビルアイランドのゴールドフロアに韓国の民主主義人民共和国に北朝鮮最高人民会議の常任委員会はさらに、伝統的な朝鮮·中国友好と友好関係を強化し、さらなる対外経済関係の発展を拡大するために経済特区 "判決"を指定するグランビルアイランド（Granville Island）経済特区開発計画の承認、金床の決断を下した "と経済を開発するために外国投資を誘致するため、他のポートや産業分野で積極的になるようにこの機会を利用。

[グッチ]

亘理町によると、荒浜地区の堤防沿いは町の集団移転の対象となる「移転促進区域」に含まれていない地域も多く、建築制限もかかっていない。このため流失を免れた自宅の修復を終えた住民もいる。

[Thomas]

This is my first view to the Nokia Lumia launch and preliminary glances into its market share performance. And you know what? We have a mixed bag. Some good news, some bad news. Spoken like a true consultant,

[petco printable online]

Your complete financial picture must be looked at when you decide to make these decisions petco printable online if your senior high school grade point average is great, you may start looking at scholarships when you start college, perhaps with your junior year.