Smartphone Market Data: Revising Stats for Android and bada

Before I get to the final count of Q3 numbers for smartphones, we need to do two corrections. We - and I mean the analysts who track the mobile stats - have been using Android 'activation' numbers as reported by Google to guide us on Android total sales, from which we have calculated market shares. But we never had a cumulative number to compare to, so it was always a hazy guess. We finally have that number now from Google in Q3, when they said the cumulative shipments of Android smartphones had reached 190 million by end of Q3. If we used the 'activation rate' numbers as reported, we'd get to about 205 million, so the numbers in the public domain over the past two years, have 'over-reported' Android numbers typically by about 8%. There is no question Android has been the hottest smartphone OS for the past two years, but the enormous numbers have been a bit too high. I have corrected the numbers and report here now the 'down-revised' numbers. I have no better insight except the total cumulative sales - so I am assuming a consistent 8% error and arrive at the following unit sales and revised market shares for Android:

                             Q2 09  Q4 09  Q1 10   Q2 10     Q3 10    Q4 10     Q1 11     Q2 11  
Previous Android    1 2%    4 5%    5 10%  11 18%   20 25%  30 30%  36 35%   49 45%
Updated Android     1 2%    4 5%    5 10%  10 16%  16 20%  24 24%  32 32%   43 40%

Note: the first number is total units of smartphones sold (or 'activated') in millions, and the second number is the market share. The above is 'best fit' to match both the growth curve, and the reported 'activation numbers' by Google and adjusting downwards for 8% over-statement before.

Same for Samsung bada. We heard that the total activated bada number cumulatively is only 8 million by Q3 of 2011. That meant that we had over-estimated bada actual performance by a factor of two. I reduced the numbers but also made the pattern to show a reasonable growth curve as per stories coming from some markets that bada is picking up steam. Here are my old and revised numbers for bada:

                             Q2 10    Q3 10    Q4 10    Q1 11    Q2 11
Previous bada      1.0 2%   1.3 2%   3.0 3%   3.5 3%   5.4 5%
Updated bada       0.7 1%   0.8 1%   1.0 1%   1.2 1%   1.8 2%

Please take these numbers as the revised numbers that I will also be using for all my updated statistics for the smartphone industry overall, as well as specific Android and bada stats.

Note that the overall market size has not changed. As both Android and bada numbers have 'shrunk' from what I have reported before, if the total number remains the same, where is the 'gain'. We know very accurately iPhone, Blackberry and Nokia (Symbian) sales per quarter which is the vast majority of the rest of the market. For the 'other Symbian' it is increasingly only Japanese handset makers who have abandoned Symbian now in 2011 after Nokia CEO Stephen Elop announced his shift to Microsoft OS. Even so, the total aggregate Symbian number has been rather well reported by the big analyst houses, usually in quite similar numbers too.

We know it can't be Microsoft - Windows Mobile is vanishing and even Microsoft CEO Steven Ballmer says the new Windows Phone OS is selling in tiny numbers. But we are looking at a scale of 9.5 Million 'missing' smartphones by Q2 of 2011. Who has them?

I have allocated the missing smartphones in a small part to Linux Mobile (LiMo) as it is used in Japan and some other Asian domestic manufacturers. But the majority of the 'shortfall' is most like those 'Android clone' phones that run some variation of Linux based Android-like software, like many 'no name' brand phones from third-tier makers out of Shenzen in China. So for those who have an interest in one of the 'major' operating systems known globally - do not worry, the numbers you've seen here have not changed. Only for Android and bada as per above, and then the 'miscellaneous' category has grown bigger.

Ok, next lets do the Q3 results for all smartphones and their operating systems.

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