Regroupings in Smartphone Bloodbath: Tizen? (ex Meego) Meltemi (from Nokia?) and NTT DoCoMo..

The Bloodbath had a regrouping end to the week, lots of refocus'es.. Here is just a quick recap without much analysis (analysis will come later) but want to record the changes as they happened.

Palm WebOS is not necessarily dead. After Meg Whitman took over at HP, she did reaffirm HP's main strategy. I have argued HP should keep WebOS and the Palm based smarpthones and 'do an Apple' to HP - Apple is worth more than the two biggest US software companies, IBM and Microsoft haha.. But currently the gossip is that HTC is interested in buying Palm WebOS and Amazon has emerged as another interested party, to expand or perhaps replace its Fire OS.

Microsoft is not in bed with only Nokia with marketing support money thrown at a handset maker to support Windows Phone OS. Samsung joined the party, signed a deal to take $$ from Microsoft while committing to WP7 based phones (which it had already committed to before.. sounds like some shrewd negotiating by Sammy haha).

Right after we hears that Samsung would 'go WP7' we heard from Intel about the future of MeeGo. They have found their new shining knight to replace Nokia - it is of course.. Samsung. And to make sure Samsung can screw not only Microsoft but also Nokia in this deal, they promptly renamed the MeeGo project to Tizen, ensuring Nokia's benefit riding the N9 sales and MeeGo will be truly minimal now.

And in the lets-all-join-to-screw Microsoft stakes, Nokia came out next with the breaking story that they DO have a Linux based smartphone OS being developed (right after they burned all their platforms and ended their previous involvement with the most highly regarded Linux based OS, Meego..). Nokia's new smartphone OS will be called Meltemi, and will be the path for lower cost S40 and featurephones to migrate to smartphones (similar to what Samsung is doing with bada).

My very quick vibe on Meltemi. If Nokia really did intend from the start to do a lower cost Linux based smartphone OS for its cheaper phones - as we all know and even Nokia has said, the Microsoft WP7 OS is not suitable for lower cost smartphones - then the smartest thing would have been to keep Symbian + MeeGo and their migration path via Qt and Ovi - without any Microsoft mess - and added the new simpler Linux based OS (now known as Meltemi) and the smartest thing of them all, would have been to use the MeeGo branding - considering what a huge buzz it generated - and call the new OS something like 'MeeGo Lite'.. But yeah, that would be the sensible thing.

Even after the Elop Effect and ruinous Nokia market adventures pushing still-born Symbian phones into the channel while all wait for WP7 based phones - if this Meltemi was in the plan, ANY smart CEO would have used ALL of the MeeGo assets (and never said they'd end Ovi branding) now, ie sold N9 in every market, with heavy push, and also other MeeGo phones like the N950. And then again - not brand it something new (Meltemi) but rather brand it MeeGo Lite.. That would have been the smart thing to do. Thus the way I read the tea-leaves is that this Meltemi adventure is a rush-job desperation move by Nokia's new CEO Stephen Elop, thought up long after the horses ran out of the barn with the moronic Burning Platforms memo and the rushed announcement of Microsoft and the assassination of MeeGo.

But yeah, I'll be back with more analysis about Meltemi and Tizen too. But we're not done. We also heard that Orange and Sharp have teamed up with a partner to launch new Android based smartphones for the Orange footprint of carriers. Have a guess who is their partner? NTT DoCoMo! The single most creative inventive and innovative company in mobile, the one with the most of this industry's major innovations including launching this very industry itself in 1979 (years before the famous Motorola phone sold in Chicago by Ameritech). NTT DoCoMo launched the mobile internet, WiFi phones, 3G, the first national mobile ad agency (with Dentsu), the first full mobile wallet, the first idle screen newsfeed, the first mobile consierge, QR codes, near field etc etc etc etc etc.. THE most inventive company in mobile, with the longest history in mobile, serving the most mature mobile market with the most demanding customers. And best (or worst for competitors) of all, DoCoMo has always specified its phones. So DoCoMo has always had an inhouse phone design team, what most mobile operators/carriers do not have. If you get NTT DoCoMo to be your partner in helping design desirable phones of the future, this is a very potent new entrant to the global smartphone wars. Expect Sharp to start to recover some market share out of this deal...

With that, its Sunday, I am at the airport heading to Amsterdam for Sanomamedia and Telegraaf Media's mobile advertising event. Come over say hi if you're there. I will try to get some blogging and Twittering done on the trip. And yes, Meltemi and Tizen analysis will be coming soon. Exciting times in the Bloodbath, isn't it?

Comments

[Szymon]

@Baron95,

> Google/Android [...]

>50/-30-/20 on tablets and 10/-5-/85 on laptops

Google/Android/Chrome OS ? Chrome is better suited for netbooks/laptops and some tablets than Android.. In longer period of time there may be some crossbreeding between google oses. Putting dalvik into chromeos will be easy for example. Also there is small (but still is) chance that Dart will change landscape of internets till 2015.

[Eurofan]

@Baron: From which School of Profits and Prognostications did you get your certificate of chrystal ball reading? Perhaps the one next to the soon to be shuttered Serbian Nokia factory run by the gypsy people in that town? A lot of surprises have happened in the handset arena in the last ten years, but your prediction that WP8 will be the third best selling handset smart platform, if confirmed in a few years, will be the greatest surprise of all if it comes true. More likely, Nokia will become a supremely profittable maker of "annostic" smart phones run on Maemo platforms, cell phones which are designed to run on prepaid plans but make all connections first on wifi networks and internet protocol phone plans and only second, with confirmed input from user, make calls or receive calls or connections on cellular networks (for emergencies or business reasons or personal reasons), like my own AT&T $2.00/day plan, because most people can wait to make or receive calls or texts or connections until when they are in wifi range, and driving and texting or talking is dangerous anyway, and because people will save more than two thousand dollars/euros every two years by buying a Nokia phone for wifi primary/prepaid cellular second (prepaid with minimal usage is <100$/year). My new N9 will save me over two thousand dollars every two years in cell plan commitment/fees when I cut down my prepaid sim card to microsim with a 5$ Ebay sim card snipper, and use it on wifi first and cell plan second strategy (skype or something). The one thousand dollar price for a N9 is a bargain since I expect it to last a decade, like my Apple MacBook Pro. I'll look more professional avoiding a cell phone post paid plan with my N9, even though I'll have no apps because no one loves the ecosystem.

All by best, Baron, all my best to you and your grumpy siblings.

[Eurofan]

By the way, Baron, I can do all the above now on my Nokia N80i from five years ago. It needs a new battery, though. Last year the battery "swelled up" and so I have to use it mostly plugged into a car or wall charger, unless I am just snapping pictures or filming videos. It always asks me if I want to make a cell call or a internet connection call and always asks if I want to make the internet connection using its wifi searching engine of the local environment or whether I want to make a cellular wifi connection: all this in 2006. The N9 just has a better UX/UI. The screen is bigger on the N9 too, though resolution on my little N80i is better than the iPhone 3 and only slightly less than the iPhone4, just like the N9s.
Cheers.

[Nemus]

@eurofan Nokia is shutting down its Romanian factory. No Nokia production in Serbia.
Regarding all this Tizen, Meego, Meltemi mumbo jumbo... It seems everything is done to painlessly break existing contracts. Nokia is now free from Intel and Meego disaster (n9 is not a real Meego device anyway), Samsung is with Tizen free from eventual Nokia change of mind regarding Meego, and Intel got some face saving deal with Samsung. Meltemi is easier to explain, it's Maemo/Hartmann renamed but still Qt powered OS. If it shows up next year it will run on 1Ghz phones that will be kinda mid-to-low level by then. For all intents and purposes Meltemi is plan B, being Linux based it will easily scale to hihg-end if need arises.

[Alexander]

That is super information!! Thanks for sharing it.

[peter]

Tomi, in order to understand how insane and sinful Elop is, you need to play with mango from Users pointof view and developers.

It metro UI is a crap for Users, tried on Zune for years and WP7 for more than 1 year now;

Tricky thing is while WP7 mango apps needs to be written by SL (silverlight)/XNA, its ie9 (internet explorer) doesn't support any silverlight plugin, which means it doesn't support microsoft own standard for Rich web application.

conclusion:
WP7 mango

1. crap UI,
no consumer users

2. crap web browser
no business users

-------------------------------
absolutely, Elop is criminal who works for US short sellers to destroy nokia from inside.

[peter]

tomi,

obviously WP7 mango can not compete against symbian pr1.2 not to mention anna, belle or meego n9.

how on earth, Finns can allow Elop to sign an secret agreement to dump symbion/meego for a crap toy so call wp7 mango ? and lay off so many excellent nokia talents ?

[peter]

@Baron95 ,

there are a couple of ways to bring down elop/jorma.
1. sue them in the court, quite possible already happening;
2. request hold a vote meeting to vote out elop/jorma, us short sellers own nokia shares no more than 10%.

so be careful, us financial criminals, your golden days can be ended prematurely.

[peter]

@Baron95, wp7 is a complete crap which can not compete against symbian pr1.2, not to mention symbian anna/belle or meego n9.

wp7 mango will have no sale for sure duo to its bully attitude from elop to nokia loyal consumers.

[Monclervest]

thanks very much for sharing! it make us in deep thinking! The way you have “blended” (hehe) it all together makes this look like a solid, whole product, as good as any Pixar short. Probably better. But then again: That’s my opinion. we offer large collection of various styles moncler jackets for your selection! welecome to have a review and choose your favorite one!

[Szymon]

@peter,

> wp7 is a complete crap [...]

so why some serious researches predicts that in no time WP will dominate the market ? ;)

pyramidresearch.com/points/item/110509.htm

i'm just random joe so please someone explain this to me ;)

@Baron95, silence about google chrome OS puzzles me, this was supposed to be major project... and only two chromebooks was shipped until now. And they have made so much mistakes with that OS - i can't believe it's THAT google who makes Android ?! Imho there still is a hope (i even know how to fix it, haha). And they should consult someone smart - for example with Tomi and His Knights of Round Blag ;) No offence, blag is great and i love you all :)

[vvaz]

Why Apple is battling with Samsung and cutting all connections?

Because - at last - Samsung is seriously starting to bite into Apple's lunch. Look here:

http://ranking.pl/en/rankings/mobile-devices-producers.html

it is page of Gemius, *the* net surveyor in Eastern Europe and MENA region (Middle East, North Africa). We are talking about market size of over 500 mln people. Unfortunately plots are divided into countries (plot above is for Poland) but if you click through all of them marketshare of Samsung devices doubled or tripled in last three months. There is more - simultaneously Apple marketshare is waning, hence whining ;)

Also Apple isn't repeating Nokia's fault. Nokia to the end is buying its components from rivals financing their own competitors. Apple is not renewing Samsung contracts to not give money to develop next generation of Galaxies.

[cycnus]

My $10,000,000,000 question is, why Meltemi (low cost Meego), Meego were designed as the super phone.... high power usage???

Why NOT.... symbian^3 lite??? after all, symbian is mature enough, and were build with low-power in mind....

what I meant with Symbian^3 lite is.... symbianOS minus the symbian plus QT (or what Symbian^4 should be).... a symbianOS with the legacy removed..... clean OS that were mature

[vvaz]

Apparently even in Nokia they hate Symbian. Also according to rumours it was very hard to make Qt play on Symbian effectively. And in 2012 even "low-end" 1GHz/512 RAM can nicely handle Linux system.

[Sander van der Wal]

All this rebranding stuff is quite boring, actually.

Some comment please on the interesting announcement that Nokia will launch Windows Phones in a few weeks (via http://www.businessinsider.com/nokia-windows-phone-release-date-2011-10). This probably means the upcoming Nokia World event on 26-27 oct in London, which is in a few weeks.

[N9]

@Baron95 wonder yes I do wonder how come such a great magnificent OS as WP7/Mango does not sell. C'mon its so great and all, and every living person in this planet dreams about monochromatic tiles, it must be a conspiracy no?

[@rodrigottr]

Tomi...

After this frustrating iPhone 4S, as I said many posts ago that Apple would lose its innovative appeal after Jobs, I believe the N9 is the best phone in the world.

And that makes Elop even more criminal

hahahaha

[n900lover]

Ahhh, so now the ms fanboys story is that Elop's "ecosystem bet" shouldn't be evaluated before 2015? Seriously LOL?

On the bright side it suggests that you guys are beginning to grasp the sober reality and the fact that it will take years before windows on mobile has at least theoretical chance.

[N9]

I'm quite sure all of us are think that Microsoft will create something new after this metro UI/UX fiasco, wont be in time for WP8 that is already committed to be like that.
Question is will there still be a Nokia to try it? How can an OEM commit to a single unproven ecosystem?

[KPO'M]

I'm not really sure why people consider the iPhone 4s a "frustrating" release. The reputable rumor sites (MacRumor, AppleInsider, 9to5) all had it pegged late last week as a 4S, since there had been nothing apart from a poorly designed case suggesting an iPhone 5, and plenty of credible evidence of an iPhone 4S, down to the references in the iTunes beta.

I think the 4S shows that Apple is comfortable growing at the market pace and see China as a growth market more so than Europe and the US. They kept the 3GS around as a budget model (perhaps aimed more at emerging markets) and reduced the price of the 4 (perhaps sensing a double dip recession). Android probably continues at its clip. The next move is Samsung's. They have a winner coming out next week with the Nexus Prime, but eventually Google and Microsoft will want the company to make a commitment to one of them. I'm not so convinced that three big companies like Google, Microsoft, and Samsung can stay "allies" or even "frenemies" for very long.