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« Regroupings in Smartphone Bloodbath: Tizen? (ex Meego) Meltemi (from Nokia?) and NTT DoCoMo.. | Main | Analysis of Smartphone Wars part 2 of news: Meltemi. What? Nokia is BACK in the OS wars? Already? »

October 06, 2011

Comments

mirmit

MeeGo in the smartphone would be a success for Intel as soon as handset makers would use Intel chipsets to power them. So far, the chips produced by Intel haven't been power saver enough to cope with device usage.
There is development platforms based on Atom, but not yet in the channel.
I'm almost convinced Tizen will have a chance in the netbook/tablet segment. It's not completely different from ChromeOS in some way. I'm more doubtful when it come to smartphone...

George

Hi Tomi,

Nice chant, but where did you get the idea of Tizen dropping Qt support? Qt is the underlying library and HTML5 is a web-standard. Even better, large parts of html5 are already supported by webkit-qt - a higher level (qt-based) library, which, incidentally, is at the core of rendering most html out there (think chrome for one, then safari for 2nd, then konqueror and many many more.. They may use a modified copy of the code instead of the system-wide lib, but it is the same thing)

Moreover, the name change (rebranding) was reported by MeeGo people (among others), with their full knowledge/support. The core devs are going to stay, so I highly doubt there will be massive changes to the underlying tech. Does not look to me as anything more than rebranding + mostly cosmetic changes.

Sander van der Wal

if Samsung is going to support a Qt-based developer environment, they will also support Nokia S40 Qt environment. And they will create a problem for their Bada developers at the same time, which platform to support with limited resources. So, from a developer point of view, this is an amazingly confusing message Samsung is sending out.

Two theories.

1) These big hardware companies have no clue about what it is to run a small resource limited developer company, and therefore they underestimate the network effects already in place for iOS and Android.

2) These companies have a clue, and this is all FUD, or "Fire and Motion" as Joel Spolsky would say, designed to keep as much developers away from the established mobile platforms.

Whichever theory is true, the outcome of both is not to develop for the mobile platforms propped up by Intel, Nokia and Samsung.

Yuri

If Samsung is serious about shipping Tizen smartphones, the logical thing for them is to make Tizen compatible with its Bada ecosystem. There are rumors that Samsung is planning to open source Bada, which may mean that they do intend to have the Bada APIs working in Tizen. They are probably not ready to announce it yet, so they spoke only of HTML5.

Diana She

Tizen = bada = HTML5 + WAC based apps

thesis example

I really enjoyed this article. It is always nice when you read something that is not only informative but entertaining. Excellent!

Vasco Duarte

There's an interesting tidbit in your article: the Microsoft license tax. Have you, or has anyone you know of, done a breakdown of the costs of producing an MS-based phone? I'm sure it is not only the license costs that increase the manufacturing costs of the MS phones...

Do you have a link/reference to such evaluation?

dsmogor

I wonder why in the world would Samsung support its SOC CPU competitor. Why create breathing space for x86 in mobile while you produce SOC with competing ISA?

Crowbar

You wrote: "The first MeeGo phone was ready to manufacture and sell in Q1"

Do you by chance mean this: http://www.meegousers.com/1413/nokia-meego-device-leaked/

Doesn't seem like you could sell it in that shape...

Niilo

I think if someone could do an "Ahonen Condensed" blog, I'd really love it. Just take what's written here and boil it down to about one third the length. I enjoy the thinking, but my eyes are pained by the huge blocks of text. Ouch.

"I'm sorry this letter is so long, but I did not have time to make it shorter"
- Samuel Johnson or Mark Twain, depending on which source you believe.

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I’ve just lately started a personal site, the data you posted on this site has helped me tremendously. I want to thank you for your entire time and work.

Gilles Monterey

@Baron95 "Elop chose the only OS/ecosystem where he will pay just one fee - the Microsoft licensing fee. Nokia chose the clean path."

But why did he have to kill MeeGo at all costs? That was stupid, or in Microsoft's interests. This detail is the one which clearly shows Elop is working for Nokia's interests only to the extent they coincide with Microsoft's. It did not matter to him how much his company loses, in order to strengthen the positions of his former company. What do you call that?

Gilles Monterey

@Lee - "Meego was sacrificed to get concessions from Msft. Nokia is not just another licensee of WP...they have the ability to modify WP, added their own IP to it"

This is actually in contradiction with all public declarations. So if Nokia gets special treatment (which is invisible yet), then what do the other WP licensees say to this?

"Nokia had also concluded that they couldn't get Meego to market fast enough"

There are rumors this was because Elop or others inside Nokia even before Elop joined did everything to stop it, for various reasons. But still, the N9 is out, - and I bet it could have been out already in February, - but where is the Nokia-WP phone?

"and even when released, it would not have an ecosystem necessary to be competitive."

That was a false argument: the Qt ecosystem would have been very competitive, and the only one to compete "too much" with Microsoft's, so it had to be killed.

Gilles Monterey

@Baron95 - "Nokia, before Elop, was paralyzed by their inability to make tough choices and kill no-traction infinitives."

After Elop came, he killed even the good traction projects :D.
From what you say it looks like that actually goes back to Ballmer's push and the Nokia board was cornered.

About the M$ deal: I also think that at this point Nokia's only chance is not really Meltemi, but if Nokia is allowed to fully customize Windows 8, and survive until then with WP and Meltemi (until Windows scales down, at which point Meltemi will be also considered "no traction infinitive" :-p ). If that plan works out, M$ is back in business (trojan mission "Elop" successful), and Nokia is just a HW integrator, eventually with some services left.

@Lee - no one state MeeGo was done, mature. But it was absolutely going there with the N9 and N950, and yes, that threat was recognized by M$, so they've sent Elop.

I am aware of course that the N9 is Maemo6 and not real MeeGo.
MeeGo itself didn't fare too well, since Nokia didn't really commit to it.
Of course the Samsung wants to cut off possible disputes with Nokia, so that is why MeeGo is discontinued and Samsung can feel it dictates the new game, Tizen.
But this is nothing technical in this, so the cause is not MeeGo's technical fault, but just business (as usual), sold with technical arguments that have not much to do with reality. As you can see from mailing lists, developers would really prefer Qt.

Elop's "oh shit" moment that you mentioned was just acting. He knew very well what he wanted from the first moment. And that's why he was hired by the Nokia Board to begin with. So let's stop pretending there were ANY technical issues here. No, Maemo6 was just fine. But M$ has a lot of cash, and they can push. There we just business arguments, as you and Baron95 pointed out. Business, no love.

From Nokia's point of view, the optimal strategy would have been to
- develop the Qt ecosystem further, running on MeeGo and Symbian
- gradually replace Symbian with Meltemi, which should have been the downscaled MeeGo
- adopt WP for enterprise and the US market, and see how it grows. It could have replaced MeeGo/Meltemi if they really sucked, when Windows 8 would come.

This way Nokia could have kept the income flow, and have a proper transition.

Of course this was not enough for M$, so they have pushed further, and ultimately succeeded. Even more, they have got this bloody cheap. Good inside job.

n900lover

LeeBase:

So if I'm counting it right, today you repeated only two fallacies:

1. Conspiracy in reverse - as company owner's delegates Elop + board are incapable to say/do or allow to be said/done, intentionally or not, anything wrong to nokia general well being. Therefore everything they say/do is in nokia's best interest, even when we can't fathom any explanation of how it could be. Instead what is happening is just component of The Grand Strategy and predicted from beginning.

2. WP is good and well - as if this year didn't happen (and same with introduction of mango). WP has to be the best choice and third "ecosystem" in making, because Elop and board chosen them (see 1.)

Or am I missing some others?

n900lover

LeeBase:

Actually, yes (almost)! It is instrumental to your either-or fallacy to maintain the other conspiracy, so when somebody doesn't agree with you, you can immediately paint him as supporter of "Elop is ms paid diversant" story.

Because, obviously, outside of these two nothing else (like that Elop is just stupid) is possible.

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I don`t know. I never love Nokia. I think he popular now only in Europe. I love android oc and no imagine what they can do better. Thnx for this post.

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Long time no see such a good paper,It gives me inspiration and inspiration.To the author to say thank you,
Hope you to create more good work.

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This is my first time i visit here. I found so many entertaining stuff in your blog, especially its discussion. From the tons of comments on your articles, I guess I am not the only one having all the leisure here! Keep up the good work.

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I would name your blog the dreamland! While Santa knocks at our door just once per year, you blog is open the whole year – wow!

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