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September 28, 2011



OK, Tommi, Meg Whitman wasn't CEO of Yahoo! She was CEO of eBay. She bought your lovely Skype :-).

News from Germany:

Several large German online retailers have listed N9 16 GB. Preorder price is 619,00 €. My thoughts: demand is so high, that they don't want to miss huge profit, even Nokia want release N9 there. There is always a way to import something outside official distribution channel.

German court's ban of Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1 is ignored in Germany by everybody. Almost all major online retailers of computers/laptops/phones are selling it, and not only them - Vodafone D2 GmbH is selling them, too, subsidized with mobile internet plan, and they even advertise it on the main page!

About WP7 boycott:
You are right, good luck finding WP7 phones at Verizon stores in NYC, and if you found them, they are not connected to Internet (which effectivelly cripple already crippled platform), and sales people will do everything to convice you to buy iPhone or green robot's phones.


MeeGo has become Tizen, and Samsung is joining it, as well as LiMo. So maybe that could become huge, or maybe that turns out to be vaporware. Timing of the announcement also puzzles me, the very same day that the N9 begins shipping.

Kirill Zelenski

Tomi, Mango still haveno multitasking... so, it is still much worse than old good symbian.


Yout talk about the N9 as if it were running pure, fully open sourced MeeGo, and other manufacturers could just check out the source, compile and have it running on a new handset.
What the N9 actually runs is the Nokia Maemo core (open sourced, but not MeeGo), with some MeeGo compatibility layers - and a Nokia-made UI. That UI is not part of the MeeGO distribution. The current MeeGo built for handsets is from October 2010, and the promised 1.2 update will not bring the N9 UI.
So there's no simple picking up from the N9. Anybody wanting to release a MeeGo phone has to invest a lot, especially in the part that matters most to modern smartphones - the UI.
What does today's announcement of "Tizen" change here? LiMo doesn't bring the needed interface, neither NEC nor Panasonic are particularly strong players in the mobile space, Samsung hasn't managed to do all that much with Bada, and Intel has wasted years bringing Moblin/MeeGo to a point where basically nothing ships with it. So it's an alliance of players proven to be at best mediocre in software development.
Looking how much the Moblin/Maemo fusion hindered development there, it's hard not to be pessimistic. Intel claims that Nokia cost them 6 months of development time. Add to that another 6 months for the current fusion, and that's a full year lost - an age in the mobile space.
By the time the first competitive Tizen phones may be out, another few hundred million customers will have switched to smartphones and chosen Android, iOS or maybe Windows Phone 7. That's increasingly customers with real investments in applications and content that's tied to the platform of their choice. Customers for whom the platform will be an ever more important point in the choice of their next phone.
Nothing's settled in the phone market yet, and there may yet be space for an open source OS, with some major players backing it and providing the necessary parts of the ecosystem, like app stores, mapping and content. I'd personally welcome this very much, and would be willing to switch. As it is, things on the Linux front are too little and too late, and to keep merging failing projects will not change this for the better.



Price is high due to Nokia positioning of N9 designed to destroy any chances for commercial success.

Samsung Tab ban is ONLY for direct sales from Samsung Deutschland GmBH. Retailers can easily buy them eg from Samsung Polska or whatever other entity making this ban and Apple a laughing stock.


Tomi, I don't know where are you taking your information from but from the MeeGo page itself it looks like MeeGo is officially no more

Restriction of N9 sales and Intel commitment to Android was a final blow to the platform. Sad but true.


The N9 will arrive in Croatia in October – however, with a price of 680€ without carrier subsidies (higher than iPhone 4 (ca. 626€) and Samsung Galaxy SII (ca. 586€)) and an OS that is considered dead, I do not see it making an impact on the small Croatian smartphone market.


Next week Apple will announce the new iPhone 5 and an 8 GB version of the iPhone 4. The latter will cost $0 on a contract or around $450 with no contract. They will stop selling the 16&32 GB 4's. All new phones will ship with iOS 5 and existing 4's will be upgradeable, likely for free (or very little).

This is nothing new. Apple already sells 2 iPhone models (4 and 3GS) and seems quite happy to keep two versions on the market. That the 3GS still outsells most other smartphones suggest this is a good approach for them. Even with an iPhone 5 on the market, a lower priced iPhone 4 will probably continue to sell very, very well.


Well that merger happened and Meego's dead again.


@ LB

MeeGo had one real advantage on Android (the same advantage iOS and Symbian have). Native code. On Android everything runs on Dalvik layer which requires better hardware to get the same effects.

In other words: MeeGo and iOS can run with the same results as Android on cheaper hardware giving producers better margins.


Come on Tomi, you couldn't possibly believe that the 4 month delay of the next iPhone was due to Apple trying to do a virtual SIM....

1) Around the time of a new iPhone, there are always leaks of suppliers ramping up production. There was *no* indication of a ramp up of a new iPhone in April-June time frame.

2) Apple use to hold the annual iPod event around October to have their product line ramped up for X-Mas sales. The iPod is no longer the must-have Christmas gift and the yearly iPod introduction is nowhere near as exciting as it use to be. The only one anyone cares about is the Touch and everyone knows the hardware spec of the new Touch in October as soon as the new iPhone is launched in June. They wanted to change the annual event to October and include iPhones + iPods.

3) You were *dead wrong* about your 2nd quarter iPhone forecast. How many more iPhones could Apple possibly manufacturer and sell during the 2nd quarter than it did?.

4) *Every* carrier is bending over backwards to sell the iPhone. If carriers truly had the power over Apple that they have over most vendors, you would see the carrier branded crapware on iPhones like you see on all other phones. You definitely wouldn't see Apple with such a direct relationship with the customer.


Elop will fire another 3500 people. Cluj will be closed down. Concentrate productions in major asian factories.

And Meego? Meego is dead... hehe


Meltemi? ssst, company confidential ;-P


Well, i just read that WP will beat Android as soon as 2013. Really. See

The other thing i just read is that nokia Q3 will be not so bad... (google: RBC raises Nokia outlook for Q3)

This may sound funny, but i see that so many people believe in MS omnipotence that in some (small imho) part this may be self-fulfilling prophecies.

Tom brady jersey

it's so good for that !!


I've given up contesting the reason why Apple moved iPhone 5 to fall, since you're fixated on the virtual SIM.

For everyone else, here are some of the technical and marketing reasons for Apple's change:
1. Additional time to make larger A5 chip workable in iPhone (and to have a lower unit production cost).
2. Additional time to finish iCloud, which required OS X Lion and iOS 5 to get in sync, and the prior launch of OS X Lion for testing by developers.
3. Additional time to finish the coming iOS 5, in particular, voice input and personal assistant software (which impacts all of iPhone's Apple apps).
4. iPhone 4 would receive a boost from CDMA version in Feb.
5. iPhone 4 would receive a boost from white model in May.
6. Nokia announced switch to Windows Phone 7, with first model due by end of year, so little competition.
7. Microsoft announced Mango arriving phones by fall, so little competition during summer, but major competition just prior to Christmas.
8. Google leaked Ice Cream Sandwich arriving by end of year, so little new competition during summer.
9. RIM announced delays in new BB 7 models until late summer; QNX-based phones not due until next year. No new competition.
10. iPod is no longer as big a Christmas sales draw. Positions iPhone to be the draw and to be more competitive during 4Q.


Nokia laying off 3,500 more


Prediction: Apple will introduce new battery design in 2012/13 that enables iPhones and iPads to last up to 50% longer on one charge, and will occupy less space. They will have sole access to this battery technology(for awhile), and take even more profit from revenues.

Prediction: Apple will introduce another killer device that will beat all other manufacturers to the market. Maybe a small portable printer for the iPhone/iPad using same advanced battery technology, printing color output straight from your phone or pad?

Prediction: Steve and Stephen will both be gone this time in 2012.

Prediction: Tomi will receive a Pulitzer for his analysis of the collapse of Nokia, and the failure of MS to compete in the mobile market.

All predictions free of charge, no refunds or exchanges allowed. If you profit from this, I expect you to chip me off 10%.

Thank you,

Earendil Star

The nice thing about the mobile space is that it's so dynamic and competitive, that anything may happen in very little time. That's exciting, but it makes doing any kind of prediction really tough. Because of this, thanks to Tomi for sharing his insight with us.

Meego is dead. As I had said previously and as correctly reminded by LeeBase, it was hideoulsy killed by its foster father TH Elop in February. However, it is also true what gzost says in his post, that the N9 is not featuring Meego, despite what is normally reported.
My take on this is that Nokia really had a potential killer product with Maemo, if it only had the guts of promoting it from the outset, with the N900. Yet they totally failed in vision and execution, lost precious time in doubts on whether supporting Maemo as future OS (probably they were afraid of harming Symbian), then -instead of sticking to Maemo- chose the frutiless Meego path just loosing more time, and this mismanagement hindered a potential killer product they had in their hands, represented by the current -late to market- Maemo N9.
A real new Nokia CEO should -among other things- have refocused and relaunched Maemo, curing Nokia's execution woes. But the MS parasite was quicker. It infected Nokia and it crippled it so badly that it now is under an imperius curse from Redmond. As already stated, good (but unfair and possibly illegal) move by MS (attempting to force feed its unattractive OS to customers, as typical for the company with its products), end of the story for Nokia.

Then about OSs, ecosystems and the like. Let's try to get rid of the FUD and misinformation.
Certainly iOS and the iPhone work well. But that's just a part of the story. The real strenght of the iPhone ecosystem is that IT IS COOL, it's what ALL PEOPLE WANT (TO SHOW OFF). I'm not saying this as a criticism, but as a praise. It's not an easy thing to achieve.
Before the iPhone, I remember Blackberry managing to reach that status. It first happened in the business world (everyone that counted HAD to have a BB), but then spread out to consumers (the BB Pearl was one of the first consumer fashionable items by RIM).
Unfortunately for BB, then came the iPhone, which dethroned it on the STATUS SYMBOL FACTOR and, eventually, that was it.

This means that all discussions about hardware or software features, what OS is better than the other specs-(hw or sw)-wise is moot. What counts in this space is what is COOL, what is perceived as the MUST HAVE product. That's where the real battle should be fought.
In this sense, the fact that Apple has "just" "the iPhone", i.e. ONE product, is no coincidence. Much easier for the consumer to identify the single, unique COOL and MUST HAVE product.

Of course features count, together with the related UX, but that is only the initial prerequisite. You must then build an IMAGE, a BRAND, that entices people to buy your products. Features may be superior, but if you lack recognition and this COOLNESS factor, all is in vain. History shows that many superior products were trumped by others just because of this.

And more: regarding features, some count more than others. The iPhone/PodThouch/Pad demonstrate that cool screen and snappy touch UI are crucial. If your phone is laggy, despite its other qualities, it will fail.

Nokia had lots of cool features. Voice recognition. Worldwide Ovi maps on the phone (no need to be on-line) with free lifelong updates. Yet it failed to capitalize and promote them enough to create that extra feeling in customers that it was really a MUST HAVE thing. Instead it continued to insist on specs that were no longer that important to customers (e.g. cameras), while slowly destroying the reputation of solid software AND HARDWARE that it had built over the years, by offering lagging touch response and unstable OSs on its latest models.

Finally WP. WP still is a laggard. So far, no sign that consumers are buying into the hype created by MS super strong PR machine. But, as Eric Schmidt will remind you, NEVER underestimate MS. They are rich in cash and profits from their Windows and Office monoply (which seemingly, nobody is caring about any longer). They are by their own nature sharks. They know that this is an important battle for them and they will try anything to be successful here.
From spreading FUD, pay favourable reports, promoting campaigns against competitors in the media, covertly acquiring companies without paying them (e.g. Nokia), blackmailing partners (now also carriers as Tomi is saying), force feeding their face-lifted only products leveraging on their monopoly, etc. etc.. MS never cared about the casualties it left on its path.

Proof is, that currently they are no-one in the mobile space (despite a decade long presence), yet still many consider their claim of becoming the "third ecosystem" -after Android and iPhone- plausible (by the way, this claim was made by Nokia!? CEO TH Elop, while Nokia STILL had the FIRST ecosystem with Symbian).
Did anyone notice that they have a 1% market share in mobile, but a 30%+ share in news market coverage in mobile systems? While their latest release is still lacking in features everyone else has? Power of MS's PR.
Yes, MS might in the end achieve this goal. Sad to think that, if this happens, part of the success will be thanks to Nokia's technologies being stolen, such as Maps, Swipe (already to be seen even on Windows 8!), and the like.
But this time, carriers will also play a role. Let's see if it is as decisive as Tomi says.

Meanwhile other contenders are being wiped out after conceding defeat. Look at HP/WebOS. Sadly, less contenders mean less competition and less innovation to all.

Just think:
MS IE9 is not too bad. But it came out thanks to Firefox and Chrome. Before that all MS cared to offer was the crappy IE7/8.
Windows 8, despite being just a flashy UI over Win 7 (albeit being marketed as a NEW OS), still carries some elements of novelty in Metro. Yet, would it have come out without the iPad or Android? Nope!
Unfortunately, market dynamics and supervisory inaction are ridding us of competition and thus of many of the real innovators. As long as this goes on, we will all stand to loose. Sorry, all you fanbois, but that's how things are.

Also a comment on Linux and open software. Linux has proven to be a disruptive element and a source of terrific innovation. Look at Android, Maemo, Meego, you name it. But in the current crazy patent system coupled with the US legal system style (where it's better to pay a little by settling agreements rather than facing the risks of a lengthy trial), a huge handicap is given to FOSS.
Again, we all stand to lose in the current state of affairs.

Meanwhile however, new disruption is coming, this time from Amazon... even if not on mobile phones yet.

The battle is heating up even more in the exciting mobile space!


@Earendil Star It's the first comment that I agree with probably 80% of...

I mean pre Elop Nokia was ffin up by the numbers without Elop, as you say too.

(Btw - what the heck TH Elop means (that TH thing)? You refer to him with that TH, sounds like some witty allusion, but have trouble figuring it out.

Then there comes your thing about "Elop killed Meego" and then contradicting yourself - that there was no Meego (so nothing to kill), it was always Maemo - and OPK and Vanjoki killed just by delaying by a year with Meego adventure. As Intel just proved by killing Meego themselves.

And then about that evil MS empire. It sounds from your comment that MS is killing WebOS because of "market dynamics and supervisory inaction"...

MS might have been Evil Empire in the 90s, but they've been a laughing stock of tech industry through the first. They haven't been able to kill anyone or anything with good enough product in the last 10 yrs.

You admit yourself that previous Nokia management with OPK and Vanjoki at the helm has been screwing by the numbers. But then go and start playing arm chair CEO with 20% of the info actual new CEO had,telling that he should have doubled downed on Maemo, etc;.

Not even ready to contemplate a possibility that it's not Elop alone who made the Feb.11th decision - Jorma Ollila was 100% behind it too as was at least most of NOkia board and senior management. No, somehow Microsoft fooled them all, and got them sacrifice they reputation, risk jail if sometime your theory is proved correct, and destroy Nokia for a bunch of money they do not actually need since they are already have enough....

Have you ever contemplated a possibility that they all made the best decision they could, given all the info they had, to save Nokia from the position OPK and Vanjoki put them in

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