My Photo

Ordering Information

Tomi on Twitter is @tomiahonen

  • Follow Tomi on Twitter as @tomiahonen
    Follow Tomi's Twitterfloods on all matters mobile, tech and media. Tomi has over 8,000 followers and was rated by Forbes as the most influential writer on mobile related topics

Book Tomi T Ahonen to Speak at Your Event

  • Contact Tomi T Ahonen for Speaking and Consulting Events
    Please write email to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com and indicate "Speaking Event" or "Consulting Work" or "Expert Witness" or whatever type of work you would like to offer. Tomi works regularly on all continents

Tomi on Video including his TED Talk

  • Tomi on Video including his TED Talk
    See Tomi on video from several recent keynote presentations and interviews, including his TED Talk in Hong Kong about Augmented Reality as the 8th Mass Media

Subscribe


Blog powered by Typepad

« So What Value in Nokia Then? Considering Post Google-Motorola Purchase | Main | WOW! Did not see this coming. HP ends Palm/WebOS based smartphones »

August 17, 2011

Comments

peter

@Poifan, yes, mango is version as 7.1.

but in usa, .1 and .5 are equivalent for bath rooms, garages and now microsoft smartphones, haha.

peter

tomi, even symbian^3 nokia n8 is better than mango, why Jorma Oilla is doing this with Elop ?

peter

Elop is trying to justify his decision to go with microsoft:
"If I happened to be someone who was an Android manufacturer or an operator, or anyone with a stake in that environment, I would be picking up my phone and calling certain executives at Google and say 'I see signs of danger ahead,'" Nokia Chief Executive Stephen Elop told a Helsinki seminar.
"The very first reaction I had was very clearly the importance of the third ecosystem and the importance of the partnership that we announced on February 11, it is more clear than ever before,"
----------------------------------------------------------------
however nokia shareholders/investors have no argument with going microsoft or google. but the abandoning of symbian and meego and huge loyal symbian exisitng users.

nokia is not a hardware maker. nokia itself alone is the top ecosystem and growing with n8 and n9.

mango has zero competition power, zero attraction when comparing with android/iphone/n9 side by side. even worse than N8.

samsonite


I doubt ms will buy microsoft. Nokia is allready where microsoft wants it. Cross-licensing for patents was done before Elop. Nokia needs ms as much as ms needs nokia. So buying nokia has no purpose.

Microsoft is 1990 company. Owning hardware company goes against microsoft core dna.

If they are going to by someone it is rim (blackberry). With rim they get 20000 patents that they do not have any deal on right now. Nokia deals are thight and nokia needs windows phone 7 so it will not slip. Rimm has strong presence in north america, nokianhas developing markets, eastern europe and south america. Nokia has has some presence in enterprice and rim is really strong there. Rim messenger, office and exchange would killer in north america business sector.

By the way q4 proves nothing. It was chrismas where nokia was allways strong. They got N8 which everybody was waiting.

N8 was vanjärvis vision of smartphone. It did satisfyi current nokia users, the rest took it as dissapointment. It was the final straw. Nokia was beyond hope. So we had vanjärvi efect, he was in helm when nokia drove outnof the road. Let me repeat there is nobody that is more responsible nokias dire straits than your man vanjärvi. His vision and excution on smartphone was total failure. Smartphone is something else than great cameraphone. N8 sold nicely in some countries, but it was not what once giant among dwarfs has hoped. It was the end to earlier strategy.

Look nokias development before elop. Writing is on the wall. The free fall had started years before.

I hope that nokia has done changes within. Slowness in changes has been disease within nokia. Slowness with razr, slowness with double sim, slowness with touchphones, slowness with wp7. It is arrogance. And it lethal now.

First time in years they seems to have a vision and strategy. N9 will not be published to keep message and focus straight and clear. This is not nokia that throws stupid gimmicks on the wall to see if they stick. It might be wrong moves but at least they have an clear direction with not much to speculate.

Janne

@LeeBase

"Google is just as likely to go down with the purchase of Motorola as they are to make a go of it"

I don't believe that Google will shoot themselves in the foot. Following Linux/Android strategy they may create an open hardware platform. Google is not Microsoft/Nokia/Apple and they work horizontally rather than vertically. They begun their enterprise on the Internet.

Maybe Tomi can do analysis on Google for a change as a mobile player? The speculation is based on the paradigm of closed hardware and software development, and Google's acquisition may be the beginning of something else and new.

peter

@samsonite,
" but at least they have an clear direction with not much to speculate."
--------------------
that is a clear direction to its death, are you 3 years old kid ?

Eurofan

@ Earendil Star: Thank you for saying whatever you said to LeeBase because you shocked him into boiling his message down to its essentials,
1) "Nokia came to the decision that Meego would not be ready in time -- that's why everything else has happened."
2) "Nokia ALREADY married Msft. It is a fait accompli. I think with Msft there is a CHANCE. The best chance of all the non-Apple, non-Google chances. Which isn't MUCH of a chance, I'll agree."

This is truly Lee's message, which he repeats every time. Let me demolish it, too, Earendil Star. Maybe if everyone offers Lee their own critique of his (1) and (2), we will finally get it into his thick skull that he is wrong on both counts and we are tired of hearing his same every time position. I'm starting to wonder if he wrote the Business Week piece on Elop or is the PR maven who got that piece written. Or if he is Mr. Elop, writing from Washington State to defend her husband in his "impossible" mission. Anyway, Lee, or Mrs. Elop, as the case may be:

1) As A.S. explains to you and as everyone understands, it makes no difference if the N9 is kosher Meego. Meego is a joint effort of lots of groups and is supposed to be open sourced. The platform that will be the basis for Meego hand sets going forward may take some further time to get squared away to the point Nokia can start attaching UIs to it. That is the way it is with collaboration, you've got to wait till everyone agrees before calling anything good and then you go to the next step and do the same thing, until the whole project is complete. It takes time but sometimes such efforts result in great, history changing software, such as Linux, which is slowly destroying Microsoft, like a bad dream for MS. So the N9 is really Maemo 6/Harmattan, so what? Maemo 6/Harmattan is ready, more than ready from so many delays, and it is going to make a huge splash in the smart phone world. You will see that by the end of THIS year. People want a Linux phone. And even though you don't get this, UNIX is the mother ship of OS's. iOS comes from UNIX via NeXTSTEP and OS X. It's pretty popular. Android comes from UNIX. Its pretty popular. WebOS is very highly rated and has a chance. It comes from UNIX. Meego, which everyone understands Maemo 6/Harmattan is the closest approximation we have right now (for phones), is owned and run by THE LINUX FOUNDATION, which is to UNIX the way GreenPeace is to Mother Earth. That's kind of saying Meego comes from God or Jesus or Budha or Hillel. No wonder people are calling the N9 a potential God phone. What does WP7 and WP8 come from? It's such a sausage of crap that I dare anyone so provide a short summary of what went into that proprietary MS OS. It's typical MS OS: a thousand lines of code to do what UNIX does in a hundred. Just throw a faster CPU at it, right? No one will notice. Well people have noticed and their expectations for software have been raised by Linux and by Apple and now by Android and now they want the same seamless, robust and thoughtful (do I dare say soulful) OS experience on their phones. People are never going to buy a MS OS again willingly if they can help it. Its like a religious reformation and the old, corrupt church is loosing members every day.

2) Nothing is ever permanent in business. If the WP line doesn't sell, Nokia can't stick its head in the sand and pretend its Symbian and Maemo/Harmattan/Meego lines aren't selling or aren't sellable and not sell them any more. Nokia is too big a company to be able to pretend that is true. What about other markets? No contract with MS can enforce such behavior by Nokia. Nokia must sell what is selling and what it has to sell and adapt its plans accordingly as it gets feedback from the market. I like how you have moved the year of decision to 2013. Why not 2015? WP7.5 Mango is an improvement on WP7, which Tomi says has a 1.1% market share. So at the end of 2012 WP will have a 1.5% market share if they are very lucky, which I doubt they will be. What then? Stop a slightly upgraded N10 from coming to all markets along with its slider companion the N1050 and its cheaper younger sibling the slightly upgraded N950 Communicator (for kids and the young at heart) so the market can remain fallow for the coming of the WP8 line of phones? Are you freeking kidding? People hate MS OSes. People hate MS Internet Explorer. People hate MS Word. No one who was ever loyal to Nokia and Symbian would ever become a MS lover. Thats like the NY Yankees and the Boston Red Socks. Two different teams with two totally different, non-overlapping emotional attachments. If Nokia's WP line of phones gets adopted by somebody it won't be by old Nokia fan boys. And who else is dissatisfied with the now proven choices from Apple and Android which cover so many price points? Only Linux fan boys and they are the last to ever agree to use an MS platform phone.

Nokia's only hope is kids, young minds with no prejudices and heavy need for a cheap, good for messaging, good for Google searching, good for Facebook phone. Maybe the Nokia WP line of phones will be the new Kin, only a successful Kin. But kids like sliders and they like cheap, so Nokia's WP phones must deal with these two preferences. I hear the on screen keyboard of the WP OS is very good and that certainly is a plus for heavy messaging users, like kids. That's Nokia's hope with WP in North America, a Dr. PePPer-like advertising campaign aimed a kid users for cheap, subsidized phones, say 15$ after carrier subsidy, for great onscreen keyboard, easy to Facebook, easy to web browse phones by the cheap phone maker, Nokia. Be a Pepper. Be a Nokia. Not everyone has to drink Coke or Pepsi, etc. Well good luck with that campaign, Nokia and Lee (if you actually care about Nokia and aren't just a short, hoping MS has poison-pilled Nokia so it can't be taken over and the stock boosted by that). But even such a campaign and strategy is no reason not to also promote Symbian unlocked phones and the N9, N950, N900, N10, N1050 both locked/subsidized and unlocked. Get real. This stuff is ready to sell and can be sold now to Nokia fan boys and Linux fans, who are both willing to pay more than $15, who are adults and ready to commit to a type of phone for many years.

Lee, you don't upset me. You bore me with you hopeless perm Nokia short attitude: "I think with Msft there is a CHANCE. The best chance of all the non-Apple, non-Google chances. Which isn't MUCH of a chance." Every time you essentially say that with some other fluff to try to defend the absurdity of the first part of your claim, that MSFT offers a chance. Yeah, a chance to have a very cheap line of subsidized smartphones reach a 2% market share world wide. You're just a short hoping that Nokia stock never gets above $7 again, whether from it's own efforts or from a takeover. I get that.

But Nokia management and Board oversight upset me. Why do they care more about MS phone OS market share more than their own employees and shareholders welfare? It's disgusting.

Nokia is just the latest victim of MS efforts in mobile OSes. There will we more victims for the Redmond vampire. If Nokia goes under, MS will buy, hostilely if necessary, RIM, not Nokia. Mission will have been accomplished: Meego phone delayed two more years and its best exponent, Nokia, taken out of commission. RIM's markets, kids and the enterprise, more closely mirror MS's strengths now and RIM is cheaper than even a bankrupt Nokia. Nokia can't be sold even at the end of 2012 for less than $25 B. Nokia's parts are too valuable, regardless of its market share at the end of 2012. Nokia is not a souring turd. Nokia is a comatose Sampson and its hair will grow back and the little vampire squid Elop will be removed from Nokia's mouth so it can breathe again. RIM could be had next year for cheaper, they will be very strung out by then with the new OS introduction, just as Nokia was last year trying to get Meego out the door. RIM is closer to Redmond and maybe MS will learn not to use their name in branding, to just sell under the Blackberry name. Microsoft has negative value as a brand name, don't you people get that?

Apple would be smart to buy Nokia and run it as a Linux and dumb phone maker as a market share"buffer" against Android and newer upstarts, like WebOS and RIM's new OS and as a reservoir of talent and ideas and IP. Product differentiation could assure that Apple's iPhone remains the highest margin Cadillac of phones while Nokia remains the Chevrolet. Of course Chevy makes the Corvette and standard cop cars, which are high margin, so Nokia could always make one or two Linux God phones with kind of a brawny, big tail pipe connotation to scare away little old ladies and soccer dads, who get to stay with the iPhone. I'm convinced Steve Jobs has a secret love for Nokia and the Linux Foundation and would want Nokia to continue in business as a Meego phone maker, especially if he gets to share the Nokia patent war chest. As Peter says, Apple could meld Meego phones from Nokia into its own Meego expanded ecosystem for further profits and further compatibility to its computer line. I don't think MS will be a bidder for Nokia. Its the Koreans, the Chinese, and Apple who have a need and the cash and the balls to make that play. MS is counting now on WP8 to be successful and this whole Mango thing is already written off with the hope that it takes Meego with it to the foggy bottom.

I hope the Board wakes up next year, calls quits on the WP plan A no plan B strategy, cans Elop and the Elopians he's got in his Leadership team and restores Nokia to profitability by allowing it to sell and promote the most profitable unlocked phone ever to hit the scene ever, the N9, and allowing Nokia to sell locked and unlocked the N950, the N10, the N1050, etc, etc. How stupid is it not to be making billions of dollars in profits off this line and hundred of millions off Symbian^3 while waiting for the Meego project to get to the point that even Lee will admit that these are Meego phones? Elop's ingenious insight that having a biggish apps catalogue and other ecosystem bells and whistles is necessary to launch a very successful line of super phones will be disproved by the end of Q4 of this year when N9 smashes all records for profitability and market penetration. People who pay $1000 for a phone want it to a) never crash, b) never get viruses/slow down, c) be great for email, messaging and web access, d) be rewarding to navigate for calender, settings, etc. Simple things don well for people too rich or too smart to be bothered by stupidity.

That's why all the best selling OSes now come from UNIX. UNIX brought quality (a) to the world in the 1970's from Bell Labs and the rest of those qualities in UNIX derived OSes have been built up from (a). What is MS famous for? Not ever being able to deliver (a) except almost, at very high price and performance trade off, for enterprise customers only. What is more UNIX than the Linux Foundation? Nothing. Meego is owned by the Linux foundation. The killing of the Meego effort at Nokia is the only thing MS is really interested in, way more than the success of WP Mango, which is already being written off by MS. MS now publicly says its all about WP8, which has no migration path from WP7, so all this Mango Tango is just to kill Meego at Nokia. Yeah it's sick. When has MS not been a sick vampire on the face of computing? What is new?

But MS will not be a bidder for Nokia this year, next year or the year after. They will want RIM, a much better fit, if it comes to taking over a phone maker if that's the only way to get their OS out there to support its future in computing. RIM also comes with patents. Nokia must save itself or learn Korean/Chinese. Or start sweetening up to Steve Jobs. Or save itself. It would be so easy to turn Nokia around into a very profitable "Meego 1.2" phone seller, Symbian^3 seller, and dump phone seller under the "Meego God phone" halo. Just fire Elop and the Elopians and wait 4 months. Instant profitability and market share rebound. Meego is that big. It is a phone blessed by the Linux Foundation. That is a huge, huge, world wide pend up demand by educated, prosperous tech savvy people. Not stupid, fickle American Jersey Shore watching kids. Smart, wealth people around the world who know what they want and are willing to pay for it. The N9 sells itself. If it sells out by Christmas this year and the Board doesn't force Elop to expand production, then...

PERUS

@LeeBase:

Absolutely agree with you. We just have to wait and see until some Nokia WP devices are out.

But to be honest, Don't you like conspiracy theories around this blog? Well, I don't really care if many folks here inventing conspiracy theories as long as they're based on valid fact and logical effects (better than hate messages or instigation). Some of them are quite interesting ;-)

However, don't forget also that many folks here have Nokia stocks and massively disappointed with the current progress. They could come here, read and comment something. Thanks to Tomi and couple of guys they could gain recognition and feel a bit better after that.

I do support Nokia decision with WP and hopefully they've made the right decision otherwise they'll be hunted by Ninja assassin with a kamikazi complex ;-)

Eurofan

The Business Week article is a puff piece to support the new Accenture plan, everyone knows that. Business Week is a glossy periodical like Time or Newsweek, and looking for real information form a Business Week article is like asking a cabby for investment advice. Don't you understand that the issue of whether Meego, a Linux like open OS, is ready yet for a UI to be put on it for phones, and whether Maemo is ready for a UI to be put on it for phones are two totally separate, though obviously related and easily confused, issues. Maemo 6 is an improvement on Maemo 5, which users raved about on the N900. Harmattan UI is obviously pretty cool. If it's too early to make true Meego phones because Meego isn't ready or likely soon to be ready, Maemo is very ready and the phone is killer, so that part of the article about Meego, no mention of Maemo, is really very sophisticated PR bullshit, as it is every time you bring up the same point. Meego may not have clothes yet but Maemo is wearing armor.

What else: Meego is not dead at Nokia. Nokia is still part of the Meego effort at Linux Foundation. Maemo 6/Harmattan is pretty damn close to what a Nokia Meego phone will be whenever Meego gets to the point Nokia can build a phone on it. Meego is on hiatus at Nokia as long as Elop is there. Of course Elop is affraid of N9 success. If the N9 sells everywhere well at $700 to $1000 and $400-600 locked, without MS ecosystem and the bare bones Nokia ecosystem it will launch with, his whole theory of the importance of ecosystem is bullshit and now proven bullshit [sorry Tomi, I'll tighten up my language], which it of course is. People who pay $1000 for a phone don't have time or emotional insecurity to surf app stores for apps to make there phone cool for their friends. They are cool themselves and their phone is a tool, and a phone that doesn't crash, ever, and gets all the important jobs done well and easily, is worth $1000 to them. A conspiracy theory is when two towers of mostly steel and some concrete, a hundred stories tall, and then WTC7, all go up in sublimating, exothermic smoke and ash like a volcano, leaving a residual mess below which is missing 9/10ths of the mass of what stood above. The fact that the initial explosions were seen 70 stories up just means the blast was focused like an anti-tank weapon and the focus dissolved as the blast worked outwards and upwards raining down on lower Manhattan and the Hudson River as micro-sized steel balls, unburned incendiary dust, ash, and unburned loose paper, as is documented in the analysis of the dust from the top of the Deutsche Bank Building by experts in their lawsuit for clean up costs, by experts who stated that the micro sized steel balls in the dust (sublimation, condensation of steel) were "characteristic" of WTC building collapse dust [at this point the insurers caved and settled and the case was dismissed, but the testimony was repeated in newsreports] , just like an anti-tank weapon. Elop is an anti-tank weapon and the tank is Maemo/Meego.

"Nokia made a deal with Microsoft to make Wp7 the direction of the company." WP7 has a 1.1 % market share in the smartphone space right now, world wide. Nokia is a company which is maybe break even at 20 % of the smartphone space world wide. Do you see a problem here?

Nokia's strategy did not fail. Nokia's nerves failed. I don't know or wish to know you but I will publicly apologize to you at the end of this year if the N9 does not sell out as a Super phone and make all kinds of headlines, even in Business Week. I'll also apologize to you if Nokia Mango phones get off to a good start in North America and Europe, though the effort may be delayed as Microsoft and Nokia together try to come up with some gloss on that piece of crap. You amaze me with your blindness to the total market repudiation of any phone bearing MS software and your repeated assertion that its all a marketing problem. Yeah, Lee, the marketing problem is that the market hates MS and hates the idea of running into their burning house and grabbing their MS phone before they grab pictures and letters from their loved ones. MS isn't loved and doesn't belong in the same category as Apple and Google and Samsung, which people actually feel good about. Nokia is loved and people feel good about it in many parts of the world still, those parts which don't have iPhones or Androids yet. A Nokia making Meego phones, and the Linux Foundation has given Nokia permission to call the N9 a Meego phone, despite..., will continue that love because every techy guy and gal on the planet knows the lovable image of the Linux penguin.

"NOKIA came to that decision." This is your favorite stretch. No Lee. The Board came to that decision guided by Elop, his Leadership Team, and Accenture. Three totally unreliable and unrepresentative vehicles for the truth, Elop, his LT, and Axxenture, none of which give a hoot for the values, people, or interests of Nokia as a body of professional people. What do they care about? I don't care. They are all uneducated, unsophisticated, glad-handling charlatans as far as I am concerned and their motivations don't interest me. Stupid people with too much power are too common to worry about. The question is not why did Elop do what he did, the question now is can Elop and MS successfully kill Nokia and Nokia's Meego efforts before the Board has to shake Elop off the horse because his WP plan is proven by the market to be a dud.

Sure the Board is closed mouthed now and will give Elop's plan time to show success. You say 2013 is the year now. Well I think after 2012, the Board will have to say that Elop doesn't get to have a 2013. What will be the point? The N9 will have been doubled and tripled in production at that point, each run earning stupendous mark up and profits, while your underwhelming WP line will sell for break even and make no market impact except to Walmart kids, who pick it out of the remainder bins. You want to bet once and still mighty Nokia on the next Kin phone for Barbie and Ken and the rest of the thinking world wants Nokia to sell what they've been waiting ten years for, an genuine Linux phone at whatever markup Nokia needs to keep making genuine Linux phones.

MS doesn't need Nokia. There will always be a next time and next for MS with a new OS, WP8, WP9, WP10. If no one will make phones with these OSes, MS will buy RIM and stop using the Windows brand. They want to be part of mobile, a bigger part of mobile than 1.1 percent. If they kill Symbian, Meego and Nokia they have made room for themselves for expansion in the cheap smartphone space and they will try again. They are already, as you are, writing off WP7 Mango. Nokia as we know it, the employer of many, many good, workmanlike experts and professionals, will not survive the WP first no plan B experiment. MS and Elop have no qualms about this. They have a longer view, a view circumscribed by the walls of the large intestine of the MS software making cow, the money machine Elop used to taste test every day when he was sitting on MS Office franchise. Like many have said, there is a nice office waiting for him in Redmond with all kinds of stock options when he returns to Washington State. What a creep.

Eurofan

Snooze...

SoVatar

@Lee:

Nokia told us Harmattan is step 4 of 5.
Nokia told us Qt is integration of Symbian & Maemo
Nokia told us MeeGo is the future high end platform
Nokia told us the platform is burning
Nokia told us MeeGo is an experiment for future disruption
Nokia told us Windows is their future smartphone platform
and Nokia told us many more things over the last few years.

So, who gives a s**t what Nokia tells us?

The market on the other hand told us:

Nokia is on a downwards trajectory for years and needs new leadership.
New leadership's (Elop) strategy and execution accelerated the downwards trajectory ( minus 25% share value the day after Windows Phone strategy was announced, minus 50% since 2/2011). What a fiasco for Nokia.


My gut feeling tells me that Nokia Windows Phone will be a huge market flop.

The irony is that this is not good for Nokia and not good for MS. So Elop will be a double flop.

Eurofan

@SoVatar: Agree with you up to not good for MS. MS would like nothing better than to stop a Nokia development of Meego phones in it's tracks. Meego phones are Kosher Linux on a phone platform, coming with blessings of happy penguin symbol of Linux Foundation. Linux Foundation is existential threat to MS crap OS's on all platforms, and MS knows and feels it already outside of phones. If Elop can continue the charade into 2013 he is doing MS work for them, torpedoing the enemy, Meego. WP 7.5 Mango is already seen within MS as a so-so and they are saying publicly that WP7 is nothing compared to WP8, therefore no migration of apps from 7 to 8. MS can use anyone to box its OS and sell on the phone market, cheap Asian players would be best, RIM second best. The whole pretense that MS has something to loose in the Nokia deal with Elop is a pretense. Phone OS is miniscule part of MS business now and the strategy for MS is long term: Kill Meego from all well know big players, especially Nokia, let the Asian no-names take it up if they dare face MS patent wars, and keep UNIX based OSes in the hands of proprietary players like Apple and Google so there will be room for MS to make its play in the future when WP8 or 9 or 10 is finally ready to play. MS is winning now every day the general public never hears about Linux Foundation Meego phones.

Earendil Star

@ Leebase

Yes, MS is in total control of Nokia, this is what I've been suggesting all along.

But the fact that Harmattan is not on the market has nothing to do with its maturity. It's being boycotted by Nokia (or should I now just say "MS"?) itself because it would be a serious threat to WP, if it proved more successful than WP (which should not be all that difficult, given how WP has fared so far, if Nokia had decided to back Harmattan in earnest).

You see, you speak as if Nokia had taken all decisions indipendently, after careful consideration of all pros and cons of the different strategies.
On the contrary, I simply want to highlight that this has NOT been the case. Current Nokia leadership (of which TH Elop is the figurehead) is NOT acting in the best interest of Nokia, but of MS. As simple as that. Go back and reread all my posts, and you'll find lots of facts supporting this thesis.

If you want to disprove it, please bring credible arguments, on why the current strategy should be better for Nokia. But please do not allege that this is so simply because "WP was a better choice", or "with MS, Nokia stand a chance", because that is just wishful thinking and possibly your personal hope. Unfortunately, the market -so far- is proving you wrong: WP is a total and utter Elop. And -sorry to tell you- I believe the market should be given more credit than your wishes.

If instead you really want to say that the current Nokia strategy is better for MS, then I totally agree. But please state it plainly.

Eurofan

Dream on, Lee: "Whatever Meego COULD have been, it WILL NOT BE, not under Nokia." Haven't you ever read any romance novels or seen a date movie? A little frustration at the beginning is always good for a relationship. Linux phone OS (Meego, the official portable device OS of The Linux Foundation) has been on a three year date with the geeky IT world and it's been a frustrating relationship of teases and turn ons. Nokia's pre-Meego efforts go back at least five years before three years ago so the desire in Nokia to get into a relationship with the Linux loving geeky world via sales of Linux OS portable devices has been almost a decade building. Now the N9 has been shown to the press and the bloggers in Singapore and the web is on fire for the N9 in comment sections for two months. Elop is the crazy farmer/step dad and he can't keep this relationship -- Nokia/Meego (hearts) the geeky world -- from coming to fruition even with his shotgun and sleepless nights patrolling the farmyard and his daughter's chastity from his perch in the barn hay loft window. This is a hollywood or a Bollywood romance for all time. Will the N9 and Meego ever come out of Nokia or will Elop bottle it up on his farm stead forever and ever???? Of course Meego will have a future at Nokia. No legal document can prevent that and stand up in court.

Tomi has shown that Nokia now has three existing form factors and tool and die set ups to make existing Meego 1.2 (The Linux Foundation's official name for Maemo 6/Harmattan, bless them) phones: the N900 (the slow, cheap, New Communicator model, flash upgraded to Meego 1.2/Harmattan), the N9 and the N950. Just putting a faster chip in each and some more memory in each 12 months from now, which any Finnish High School science standout can tell you how to do next year based on blueprints, gives you an outstanding new line for September 2012 of even more expensive N951, N10 and N1050 models, while the older models go down market in price, just like Apple does it. Fixing a few bugs and adding a few built in widgets would be nice next year but not essential. People love the idea of Meego so much that they'll put up with a little more frustration, especially since farmer Elop and his shotgun have obviously interfered with daughter Meego's coming out preparations. Geeks love Meego1.2/Harmattan -- and geeks have money all over the world and have tremendous market influence all over the world. Leave the iPhones to soccer moms and soccer dads and soccer grandmoms and soccer granddads [this is a US term for Yuppies with kids, sorry to non-US ears]. The N9 will sell itself at $1000 a pop. Geeks don't care one little bit how many apps are available. Apps are for soccer Dads and NYT columnists (same thing).

Eurofan

Geeks and power executives both like the same thing: intelligence in their tools. A tool which never crashes, never. A tool which doesn't lose connection or information. A tool which copies and pastes and excels at email. A tool which is well sorted and intuitive. Then for geeks: a tool which can be hacked and played with. Then for power users: a tool which can be well integrated into their company IT systems. Linux on a portable device. The solution for geeks and for power users. Meego at Nokia is done or as done as needs to be for the next two years. Nokia already has Meego1.2/Harmattan and you'll see that the only profits Nokia makes in the smartphone space for the next 12 months will come from it and the old still selling Anna N8, god love it, barring hideous accounting revisionist history. Wishing won't make it go away, Lee. The N9 is way more important to Nokia than Elop and his theories and his agreement and his people. In 12 months the N9's successors will roll themselves off the assembly line with slightly faster, maybe even dual core! chips, just a slight improvement and voila, amateur geeks and amateur power users will feel green lighted to give it a try joining real geeks and real power users. You think Google got to the top of search from marketing muscle, Lee. No. Google was a clean, simple, powerful, foolproof tool whose time had come. Exactly like Meego.

Nokia is so smart to charge a ton for it. Why not? Nokia needs the money. A N9 which sells out by Christmas 2011 at high margins is obviously something real and something important and worth another round of production, wouldn't you say, whatever the contract with MS says. The Nokia WP line, if it comes out before Christmas will go nowhere in the market place just like non-Nokia WP phones. If the WP line comes out after the new year it will still go nowhere in the marketplace. That is so obvious. It will sit under glass next to iPhones and Androids and Blackberries and the sales person will say, "I've been promised and extra $10 in my paycheck for each one of these new Nokia's I sell, but you know something, I will never be able to look those customers in the eye again if I sell this phone to vulnerable, uninformed people. The fact is the OS is from Microsoft and people get tired of using it really quickly, just like all Microsoft products. These Blackberries and these Androids and this older iPhone are all very close in subsidized price and have much higher long term satisfaction. Why don't you give me one dollar and I'll write up a contract for one of these other phones. If I do this ten times in a row I'll feel better about myself than if I sell you a WP phone, OK?"

Anybody can get into a contract. Lawyers, guns and money get people out of contracts that other idiots got people into. Lawyers, check, Nokia has them, they just beat up on Apple's lawyers. Guns, check, Nokia has an awesome patent war chest. Money, well it takes money to make money and if Nokia wants out of the Microsoft contract all they have to do is break it and start paying lawyers from the proceeds of Meego1.2 phone sales. Its that simple. There are no olympic prizes yet for Industrial Double Flop, ok, so Elop can strip off his tummy hugging girdle and get off the stage. Nobody believes him and his magical microsoft ecosystem bullflop any more. He's starting to sweat on TV like Nixon in his debate with Kennedy.

Elop on SeaRay, so not believable: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6oidCTUw4s

Marko Ahtisaari introduces N9, a 10/10 performance: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oU8kYwqZKgM

Compare and contrast. Who is more confident, who is more sincere, who makes more sense, which product is going to be a hit? It's not hard to figure out.

Eurofan

@Earendil Star: I agree %100. Lee, if you can't stand my enthusiasm for the team at Nokia which produced the N9, on older hardware and on a touch screen only design and who plan to market it at a high price point (which is brilliant, b/c it avoids all criticisms [every reviewer said the N9 is plenty fast and not laggy as it is], sets itself up for significant profitability, and sets up so easily next years models, basically faster chips (same manufacturer) more memory on existing N900, N950 and N9 models without need for any programatic support within Nokia during the next ten months. Ok.

Listen to Earendil Star: Who at Nokia is working for Nokia and who at Nokia is working for Microsoft? Is there a difference in interest between these two groups? Which group has a plan for full employment and market innovation. Which has a pipe dream for profitable gutting of engineering teams and miraculous market success via the least successful smart phone OS out there? Elop was at the helm for what 4 or 5 months before he changed strategy from [transition to Meego] to MS's WP platform as primary smartphone OS for Nokia starting in 2012. 4-5 months. When his memo came out and he introduced his thoughts to engineers at Nokia, they walked off the job, thousands of them, like he was some sort of crackpot dictator. Elop is not Nokia. His salary after his two and an half years with benefits is equal to ten or twenty years of a Nokia engineer's salary. Elop has different values than a Nokia engineer. Elop and his team changed the plan and sold the change of plan to the Board, who themselves were feeling guilty for loosing % 75 of Nokia's market value in the proceeding 3 years, so they were willing to take a chance or look like they were willing to take a chance with this new leader.

But the N9 team outsmarted Elop. The N9 is going to sell at a high price point in limited markets, runs very well on two year old tech, and will be a total hit, smuggled on the grey market into USA, Britain, China, India and other world geekdom hotspots. The N9 is child's play to improve upon and market 12 months from now, that is built into its current design, as three separate phone models, without the need for an institutional development program for 10 of those 12 months. New models could be engineered and readied for production in two weeks, when the word is given in the summer of 2012. Those Nokia Meego software engineers Elop has laid off will by that time have hacked and hewed themselves each a new summer log cabin in that time for 10,000 euros each supported by Finland's generous retraining stipends and their own fury. Next year's upgraded chips from the same manufacturers [Google/Motorola chips, weren't they? -- you think Google/MMI would be adverse to sticking it to MS? by hustling a bunch of new chips to the N10 team next summer?] stuck into the same three Maemo/Meego phones Nokia already knows how to make now. Release world wide this time next year, with or without advertising, but with carrier subsidy when carriers are game for it in the US, perhaps upstart carriers looking to make new sales with a hot word of mouth phone: cricket, virgin mobile?.

Lee: How long dated are your puts? and how much of your portfolio have you invested in them. You seem to have two nightmares, one that the N9 is a big hit and gets sold well beyond its 100,000 unit quota making big bucks for Nokia and winning a follow up line of Meego phones next year, and two that Nokia gets bought out next year for a nice premium over current market value by deep pockets, eg Huawei or even, horrors, Apple.

n900lover

I heard some ms fanboys here were interested in example of disagreement with Elop's lies:

http://felipec.wordpress.com/2011/06/21/my-disagreement-with-elop-on-meego/

Eurofan

@n900lover: I check the comments on that posting every day. They are up to 301 now. A really good post and each comment, all three hundred and one, so far, is worth reading. Totally agree with recommendation to visit that blog for a understanding of what the N9 represents.

http://felipec.wordpress.com/2011/06/21/my-disagreement-with-elop-on-meego/

Most recent comment, the 301st:

"André Zunido says:
August 18, 2011 at 1:19
The N9 IMO has the best, most intuitive UI in the smartphone market. Paired with the beautiful hardware and screen its just the perfect match.
The camera seems to be really awesome also, everyone seems to be praising it (In anantech I caught a nice reference in the ‘T-Mobile MyTouch 4G Slide’ review: “…I’d still put the Nokia N8 at the top (and the N9 even higher when it releases), but this definitely in the conversation for second best, along with the Galaxy S II (which we’re still testing)…”.

I want this phone so much!

I Just hope Nokia will keep updating and developing maemo6/meego together with “their” WP7 which I don’t really care about."

Very typical comment on a very sober site. I also like:

http://konttoristhoughts.blogspot.com/2011/06/respect.html

Latest 2 comments:

"shekar said...
@konttori, i have a couple of questions for u plz reply
1) does alien dalvik for android apps come with d phone or downloadable??
2) there r a few photo leaks of d n9 in WHITE... do u hav any idea abt tht.
thanks
11:44
Konttori said...
Official statement is that we don't comment about white, so I won't either.

Alien Dalvik is 3rd party activity and as such may or may not end up as a downloadable (I sure hope it will, as it's excellent project), but there is no official support from Nokia for it.
00:24"

Eurofan

Also a useful summary as of 6/22/11 of what's known about N9 functionality:

http://talk.maemo.org/showpost.php?p=1036166&postcount=1

Author of above post, shallimus from Toronto, uses tag line:

"A fatal exception WTF has occurred at EL0P:BALLMER in ROADMAP MEEGO. The current hopes and dreams will be terminated.
If I wanted an iPhone, BB, Android or WP7 phone, I would have bought one already.
Please do not feed the trolls. They are on a special diet of misery, WP7 marketing and their own hot air."

UK

@eurofan: Proud of the team which did the N9? You mean the subcontractors Nokia slaved to insane deadlines?

The comments to this entry are closed.

Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

Tomi's eBooks on Mobile Pearls

  • Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising
    Tomi's first eBook is 171 pages with 50 case studies of real cases of mobile advertising and marketing in 19 countries on four continents. See this link for the only place where you can order the eBook for download

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009

  • Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009
    A comprehensive statistical review of the total mobile industry, in 171 pages, has 70 tables and charts, and fits on your smartphone to carry in your pocket every day.

Alan's Third Book: No Straight Lines

Tomi's Fave Twitterati