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« Another Death in the Bloodbath: Google Buys Motorola Mobility | Main | Why Microsoft Cannot Afford to Let Nokia Fall Into Hands of Any Rival »

August 15, 2011



Wow! I think it's fair to say Nokia is a bigger prize than MMI, a much bigger prize.

Peter White

What about HTC, Huawei or a Chinese player. A hedge fund perhaps?


Tomi, I am sure you are the right ceo to run nokia now, period.


@Peter White, for Huawei, depends on the depth of its cash pocket, Huawei would like to own every part of nokia. NSN, all cell phones, brand, patents and talents


Nokia as it stands is still way over valued, their patent collection is the most important prize, unfortunately it comes with a bunch of failing arms, it's like an octopus where only the brain and beak are valuable and the tentacles are worthless.

as a brand their biggest problem is lack of mindshare, they have been selling lots of phones yes, but most of those are dumb feature phones, if you think they appear innovative and futuristic then I've got a N 3310 to sell you. Phones are status symbols and you don't ask someone out wearing a potato sack and crocs.

Furthermore all of their innovative phones never see the light of day, the best thing Apple does is show you the future and then lets you buy it a month later, Nokia shows you the future and says it was just a prototype, or it won't be out for another six months or even available in your 1st world country. Apple ships devices, Nokia is all smoke and mirrors showing off Concept Cars at an Autoshow that you can never purchase.

The MSft bid really makes a lot of sense, a 90's Computer Company buying a 90's Mobile Company, yawn...
at least if MSft buys Nokia you can play Snake and Minesweeper on the same device!

otherwise China's Baidu might make a play


Another suitor would be Oracle. With their Sun acquisition they went into hardware, have nothing in mobile at all. Sure, they currently are not a consumer oriented company, but they are very aggressive and really good in integrating the companies they buy. They could create a consumer division around handsets.

And there is the Nokia option: Fire the board, fire Elop, and start again to deliver great phones consumers want to buy. Too late?


Wow, the Nokia option. Nice. Probably would take a general strike by all Nokia employees in Finland, walk off the job for three weeks without union vote, just a mass "screw this" protest. I think that might do it. Even fat cat Ollila must have a conscious or at least some shame under that lizard Bildergerger skin. The rest of the Board, I think they are like cockroaches afraid of the light. Once the Board quits there is a new vote by stockholders for a new Board which will pick a new management. This could be tech industrial history in the making perfect for the twitter age, kind of like Cairo or Athens?


Nokia would be a huge prize for many reasons, and I think any of the companies you mention might consider an acquisition. Apple would be the most interesting to me, since it would mark a change in Apple's philosophy from outsourcing production to controlling it. Tim Cook is a master of supply chain management, though.

Another possibility is a defensive merger of equals between RIM and Nokia. RIM's days as an independent company are numbered, too. Right now, it looks like the future belongs to Android with Apple occupying its historical premium niche. Something needs to emerge as the third major OS (likely the #2 OS to Android), and perhaps RIM management might see a future with Nokia's factories and patents.


Nice post.

Tomi, can you hazzard a guess as to when Nokia will be bought? Maybe a range of dates. Or a conditional prediction (i.e. when the stock price goes below __)

In any case, it does seem inevitable.

Earendil Star

Tomi, first of all happy holidays!

I am afraid you are forgetting the TH Elop effect here. Nokia is already owned by MS. No need to pay for something you already control.TH Elop has already given MS what it wanted for free.

Unless an unlikely hostile bid is arranged by somebody else (more as a tactical move to disturb MS actions), it will be TH Elop himself who will sell Nokia pieces before offering everything to MS on a silver plate...

And Nokia's main shareholders must have agreed on this course of action all along (maybe at the promise of some good offer in Nokia vs MS share exchange terms).

It is now only small Nokia shareholders who could react by pursuing an action against Nokia, with uncertain result...

Life is tough in the wild...

And as for the Elop effect, nice term, as long as you recognize his actions are not haphazard but directed from Redmond. Under this perspective, he is doing exactly what he was supposed to do, and rather well actually.

Finally Meego: it won't be sold because MS has no interest in that. Its technology will be incorporated in WP in an attempt to make it appeal to potential buyers, as opposed to the current WP total Elop.


@Earendil Star: I'm still laughing at what we have here, "the current WP total Elop." That is priceless, a WP total Elop. Like a shit sandwich. Just classic. Oh, I'm sorry, did the grumpy Barron just give a loud harrumph from his gentleman's club? Some thing about hard to fire soft spoken Finnish engineers being hard to fire? I'm sorry, best to let the Barron finnish off his afternoon brandy and cigar and let him have a good brunch before we follow up on his surly mood. But the Barron and I agree on a price 14 months from now when Nokia's valuation is 12B $US. That price will be...25B $US, a hundred percent markup. Because despite the Barron's discomfort with the idea he is a realistic man and he and I know fat, woody, did the Baron say Lazy?, uncool Nokia with its half finished OSes is actually a very good bargain at $25 B US even after four more quarters of losses. But who will pay that price, which Prince will kiss the frog or which ugly frog will kiss the Princess. I shouldn't have touched the brandy before writing this. I need a smoke and a walk.

What we have here is a WP total Elop. Classic.


I dont think Nokia will be sold in near future.

But a possible scenario would be to clean up the Nokia group first and make it more salable.

1. NSN - break it up and sell it off to multiple parties. The network systems which is profitable and leading in 4G/LTE/MS will have many takers. Ex: Cisco, Samsung networks, Siemens or even IBM. The software side is high margin business but relatively less profitable due to efficiency issues, but if split up and packaged well it could be sold as a whole or in parts to houses like Oracle, Accenture, HP, IBM, Atos, Wipro.....NSN has to separated from Nokia in any case.

2. Nokia - First of all, a complete re-branding required. Comon, the marketing is the worst part of Nokia, they dont even change its logo. Young people need that hip feeling about a brand..its a consumer brand not an investment bank to keep the same logo/colour over decades. Just an example, many people would like to show-off what phones they carry in Fecebook/Twitter etc. If you tweet from iPhone/Android , the tweet shows 'from twitter for iPhone/Blackberry/Android/HTCSense" etc. But if you buy the latest Nokia phone by spending 100s of $ and tweet, it just shows "tweeted from ". Comon Nokia marketing, wake up. Simple things/changes will do wonders to the brand and reinvigorate. The market has changed they dont care about tradition, but only whats cool.
After all the preparatory work, if a sale is still required, the best suitor would be MSFT. I dont see any issues in keeping Nokia brand, it can just add a tag below " A Microsoft company".

3. NAVTEQ - agree with T

One thing is sure, Meego has no future with Nokia. Right or wrong, Mr Elop has killed it completely. Now only if the remaining partners could put it back into the orbit, then over time it could be big again. But any strategy now to go back to Meego and start from scratch (that is, to build a world around it) would be absolute foolishness.
So the best option for Intel or whoever is still pursuing Meego is to join with the Ubuntu Linux group and make it their offering for the Smartphone OS world. Ubuntu is yet to enter that space and I believe if they rebrand Meego as Ubuntu Smartphone OS, it might fly. It could be the first "real" open source smart phone OS.

Gretchen Baenre

Sorry, but Nokia, patents and all, has become a souring turd. There is absolutely no two ways about it.


I need one atleast plz


>>>> fully launch a series of 4 MeeGo based Nokia smartphones now in 2011 and many more in 2012.
I need atleast one for me . PLZ


Uhh this is very long. I am readed and sore my eyes.. Thanks you.

john ramirer

it is funny, you said " the smallest and least-used (Microsoft's Windows Phone 7 which even today is losing sales and has shrinked to 1% market share globally)".
How about Meego's market share? You say that WP7 is the wrong path because it doesn't have market share, but how Meego can be better? I think Elop saved Nokia, it was a tough decision but the right one - go away from the crap Symbian and be more like Apple, releasing less phones but a better environment and with a more user friendly OS.


Anyone who wants to make a huge strike against Apple and Android could be thinking on buying Nokia.

And I totally agree with Tomi about Intel to be the one who most beneffits from buying Nokia. By buying Nokia Intel would simply buy for itself most of the necessary skills to be in the game without depending of software partners, something I've been observing would interest Intel as its relations with Microsoft and Apple are not good.

Those skills are: a worlwide (except for US) powerfull brand, a worldwide selers chain, a top class of designers, a top class of hardware engineers, and the necessary (not the best) software skills to never need again Apple's or Microsoft's products to sell any chip Intel intends to sellnplus giving Microsoft the strike they always dreamed to give.

But that would be a acquisition to perform a insanely deep change on Intel's strategy. That would be a all win bet capable of changing everything and also of ruining everything for Intel.

That is why I'm not so sure they have the guts for that. Until now Intel don't seems to me to be audacious enough for such move. But I'm sure if they did that move, that would be the best move they ever did.

Stephen Elop

Gee Tomi, I don't know at what price you bought your NOK shares, but I feel that you are hurting. I too have a significant part of my portfolio in NOK but bought them at $7 and lower. You seem to place all the blame on Elop. You give him too much power. The decision was not his alone and since you are not part of the Board, how could possibly have a clue as to how they arrived at this decision? Will you print a retraction on this Blog in the future when Nokia will complete another of its many transformations, like it has had to do in its 100 + years of history? But if they are sold, I will surely make a profit, so it's win-win.



Acording to the world's largest brand consulting Interbrand Nokia was the 5th most valuable brand in the world in 2009. And even losing 15% of its value, in 2010, it was in 8th nine positions above Apple (17th) and eleven above Samsung (19th), the companys who have outsold Nokia's smartphones this year.

You must be out of your mind if you believe one of the top 10 most valuable brand from last year isn't a worldwide porwerful brand.

And read again. I didn't said they have the top class of SW engineers but that Nokia haves the necessary SW skills to make possible for Intel making their own tablets and smartphones if they want.

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