My Photo

Ordering Information

Tomi on Twitter is @tomiahonen

  • Follow Tomi on Twitter as @tomiahonen
    Follow Tomi's Twitterfloods on all matters mobile, tech and media. Tomi has over 8,000 followers and was rated by Forbes as the most influential writer on mobile related topics

Book Tomi T Ahonen to Speak at Your Event

  • Contact Tomi T Ahonen for Speaking and Consulting Events
    Please write email to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com and indicate "Speaking Event" or "Consulting Work" or "Expert Witness" or whatever type of work you would like to offer. Tomi works regularly on all continents

Tomi on Video including his TED Talk

  • Tomi on Video including his TED Talk
    See Tomi on video from several recent keynote presentations and interviews, including his TED Talk in Hong Kong about Augmented Reality as the 8th Mass Media


Blog powered by Typepad

« Decision Matrix for Nokia - Compare Microsoft Windows strategy vs Symbian/MeeGo strategy, side-by-side, by all relevant metrics | Main | Some Nanothoughts for an iPhone 5 World: Why Apple Needs to Split its Product Range in Smartphones »

August 02, 2011



Tomi, you're wrong. First, Apple has been clearly growing even faster than the hypergrowth smartphone market in every quarter over these last 2 years. Using IDC data, year-over-year:
2Q11: Apple 142%, market 70%, Nokia -30%, RIM 18%
1Q11: Apple 114%, market 80%, Nokia 13%, RIM 13%
4Q10: Apple 87%, market 87%, Nokia 36%, RIM 36%
3Q10: Apple 90%, market 89%, Nokia 62%, RIM 46%
2Q10: Apple 62%, market 50%, Nokia 42%, RIM 40%
1Q10: Apple 129%, market 57%, Nokia 57%, RIM 45%
4Q09: Apple 98%, market 38%, Nokia 38%, RIM 41%
3Q09: Apple 7%, market 3%, Nokia 7%, RIM 39%

To be more accurate, during the last 2 years, both Nokia and RIM (which were the two largest smartphone vendors) went from beating the market to severely underperforming the market. All while Apple was beating the market every quarter.

You make it seem like Apple passed Nokia because Nokia failed spectacularly. But Apple just grew 142%. The trends in those IDC numbers are obvious; it was only a matter of time for Apple and Samsung to pass Nokia (without a turn .

Second, as I've written before (and you kind of acknowledge with your ladder comment), Apple with its one launch a year will have ups and downs on a quarterly basis that are smoothed out on an annual basis. So looking at trailing 12-mo results on a quarterly basis (beginning 4Q08), Apple's market share (using averaged IDC, Gartner, and Strategy Analysis data) has been 9.4%, 10.6%, 13%, 13%, 14.5%, 15.6%, 15.6%, 15.9%, 16%, 16.7%, and likely 17.8% (don't have Gartner data for this quarter yet). Apple hasn't lost share in any quarter for over 2.5 years. Compare that to Nokia: 41.8%, 40.1%, 39.2%, 39.1%. 39.1%. 39.3%, 38.7%, 36.8%, 33.8%, 30.1%, and likely 24.6%. Only once was there an increase and by .2%. And to RIM: 15.5%, 17.9%, 18.2%, 19.2%., 19.6%, 19.1%, 18.8%, 17.4%, 16.2%, 15.3%, and likely 14%. Consistently losing share since 4Q09.

Finally, I don't even know how you could compare Apple to Motorola and SonyEricsson. Motorola sold 300K more smartphones this quarter than last, and fewer than 4Q10, and continues to lose money. SonyEricsson sold 400K more smartphones this quarter than last, and the same amount as 3Q10, and continues to lose money. Apple sold 1.7m more smartphones than 1Q11, 4.1m more than 4Q10, and 6.2m more than 3Q10, and earned over a billion more in phone revenue than its previous best quarter.

You keep damning Apple's success with faint praise. And you'll keep being mostly wrong (as Leebase has pointed out) because you still don't understand what Apple has done to this industry's dynamics.


I was seeing today as how NOKIA is in a HUGE boycott.

Nokia N8 was the LAST phone any carrier sold around here (Brazil). Since then NO NEW phone has been carried, and good luck trying to find anything running Symbian s60 or 3. Only Dumbphones to be found.

Even the N8 received very nice marketing campaigns, and Nokia still held a good 50% of all shelf space. But now even ZTE and HUAWEI have more shelf space than Nokia.

I can't even buy a Nokia e72 (one of the most popular Nokia phones) or e71, even e7 in ANY carrier. The only phone available is the N8.

This is affecting nokia more than anything. And I'm pretty sure (as a sales person told me) that it is all because Nokia is abandoning Symbian (no support to customers).

Elop killed Nokia, definitely!



As Baron95 mentioned before, share price rating and credit rating are two different thing.

I could see a "pattern" in your blogs these days:

It seems that you never analyze first every bad news of Nokia, you just grab them all, simply interpret and overrate them and blame Elop alone for that.
As example: Instead of Nokia's long-term corporate credit rating you wrote it as Nokia's share price.

Being a good matter-of-fact analyst is not an easy job, especially if emotion and pride come into the game. But however it's still a pleasure and sometimes funny to read your blogs.


@Baron95 - Thank you for your clarification!..., then the current situation of Nokia is totally under control by The NBM, and what users interpret as poor performance of Nokia today, is just a fantasy driven by Mr. Ahonen?


Great data, as always.

But you're being way too hard on Apple. They're gaining market share in an exploding market, while holding margins with a premium product and limited distribution, while tons of new market entrants are selling a dizzying variety of competing models through a much broader range of channels. Nobody else pulls off this kind of a win.

I write this with an Android phone - my personal preference - in my pocket.

So Vatar

Just to point out:

After today's sell off on Wall Street Nokia shares closed at $5.02, down 7.4% for the day. Nokia's market value is now down to $16.8 B.

So, besides a few posters here and there no one seems to believe that Nokia's strategy has any future. Nokia is done. Elop and the Board finished them off in less than 12 months.

Cheap Beats By Dre

ey think of your analysis?.
It is very sad to be a spectator of the destruction of a company like Nokia!


Tomi is a bad analyst. That's why he got fired from Nokia in 2000. Just ask Nokia HR for detail if you know someone there.

beats by dre store

you can simply google it by nokia windows phone marketing

canada goose parka

These kind of post are always inspiring and I prefer to read quality content so I happy to find many good point here in the post

Really impressed! Everything is very, very clear, open is a description of the problem. It contains the information.

rolex watches

The implementation of the FLIX system is flawed in that to activate flix you need to hold down the night light button for 3 seconds. Idiotic.

replica watches

In order to adjust the date and/or time on such a watch, you must first unscrew the crown before you can gently pull it out to its first or second click stop position.


Ciao! Mi sono imbattuto nel tuo sito completamente per errore, e sono veramente felice di averlo fatto! Questo è molto interessante, e posso dire che avete trascorso qualche tempo a studiare questo. Grazie!


Blog Grande Je suis certifié sur votre blog Parce que j'ai cherché et visité le contenu de blog sont uniques. Si votre blog ne sont pas uniques message pour que je ne poste mon commentaire.

cheap uggs

Yeah. They are emitted directly into urban water supplies.


価に(2 +1)が含まれているかどうかわからない場合は評価、ない古き良き時代から多くのプライマリとセカンダリの学校の生徒。




moosejaw coupon

Almost every lending lender including commercial banks, building societies and lending institutions offer payday advances to its trustworthy customers moosejaw coupon homeowners who use obama's home loan mod will also get incentives of $1,000 per year for approximately 5 years for staying current on the new modified loan payments each month.

1.M.R vs jack3d

If you want to have carpeting, make sure to vacuum weekly. Never smoke in the household and if you have a fireplace in your bed room, really don't use it.

The comments to this entry are closed.

Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

Tomi's eBooks on Mobile Pearls

  • Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising
    Tomi's first eBook is 171 pages with 50 case studies of real cases of mobile advertising and marketing in 19 countries on four continents. See this link for the only place where you can order the eBook for download

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009

  • Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009
    A comprehensive statistical review of the total mobile industry, in 171 pages, has 70 tables and charts, and fits on your smartphone to carry in your pocket every day.

Alan's Third Book: No Straight Lines

Tomi's Fave Twitterati