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« Decision Matrix for Nokia - Compare Microsoft Windows strategy vs Symbian/MeeGo strategy, side-by-side, by all relevant metrics | Main | Some Nanothoughts for an iPhone 5 World: Why Apple Needs to Split its Product Range in Smartphones »

August 02, 2011

Comments

kevin

Tomi, you're wrong. First, Apple has been clearly growing even faster than the hypergrowth smartphone market in every quarter over these last 2 years. Using IDC data, year-over-year:
2Q11: Apple 142%, market 70%, Nokia -30%, RIM 18%
1Q11: Apple 114%, market 80%, Nokia 13%, RIM 13%
4Q10: Apple 87%, market 87%, Nokia 36%, RIM 36%
3Q10: Apple 90%, market 89%, Nokia 62%, RIM 46%
2Q10: Apple 62%, market 50%, Nokia 42%, RIM 40%
1Q10: Apple 129%, market 57%, Nokia 57%, RIM 45%
4Q09: Apple 98%, market 38%, Nokia 38%, RIM 41%
3Q09: Apple 7%, market 3%, Nokia 7%, RIM 39%

To be more accurate, during the last 2 years, both Nokia and RIM (which were the two largest smartphone vendors) went from beating the market to severely underperforming the market. All while Apple was beating the market every quarter.

You make it seem like Apple passed Nokia because Nokia failed spectacularly. But Apple just grew 142%. The trends in those IDC numbers are obvious; it was only a matter of time for Apple and Samsung to pass Nokia (without a turn .

Second, as I've written before (and you kind of acknowledge with your ladder comment), Apple with its one launch a year will have ups and downs on a quarterly basis that are smoothed out on an annual basis. So looking at trailing 12-mo results on a quarterly basis (beginning 4Q08), Apple's market share (using averaged IDC, Gartner, and Strategy Analysis data) has been 9.4%, 10.6%, 13%, 13%, 14.5%, 15.6%, 15.6%, 15.9%, 16%, 16.7%, and likely 17.8% (don't have Gartner data for this quarter yet). Apple hasn't lost share in any quarter for over 2.5 years. Compare that to Nokia: 41.8%, 40.1%, 39.2%, 39.1%. 39.1%. 39.3%, 38.7%, 36.8%, 33.8%, 30.1%, and likely 24.6%. Only once was there an increase and by .2%. And to RIM: 15.5%, 17.9%, 18.2%, 19.2%., 19.6%, 19.1%, 18.8%, 17.4%, 16.2%, 15.3%, and likely 14%. Consistently losing share since 4Q09.

Finally, I don't even know how you could compare Apple to Motorola and SonyEricsson. Motorola sold 300K more smartphones this quarter than last, and fewer than 4Q10, and continues to lose money. SonyEricsson sold 400K more smartphones this quarter than last, and the same amount as 3Q10, and continues to lose money. Apple sold 1.7m more smartphones than 1Q11, 4.1m more than 4Q10, and 6.2m more than 3Q10, and earned over a billion more in phone revenue than its previous best quarter.

You keep damning Apple's success with faint praise. And you'll keep being mostly wrong (as Leebase has pointed out) because you still don't understand what Apple has done to this industry's dynamics.

Vinícius

I was seeing today as how NOKIA is in a HUGE boycott.

Nokia N8 was the LAST phone any carrier sold around here (Brazil). Since then NO NEW phone has been carried, and good luck trying to find anything running Symbian s60 or 3. Only Dumbphones to be found.

Even the N8 received very nice marketing campaigns, and Nokia still held a good 50% of all shelf space. But now even ZTE and HUAWEI have more shelf space than Nokia.

I can't even buy a Nokia e72 (one of the most popular Nokia phones) or e71, even e7 in ANY carrier. The only phone available is the N8.

This is affecting nokia more than anything. And I'm pretty sure (as a sales person told me) that it is all because Nokia is abandoning Symbian (no support to customers).

Elop killed Nokia, definitely!

symbianlover

@Tomi:

As Baron95 mentioned before, share price rating and credit rating are two different thing.

I could see a "pattern" in your blogs these days:

It seems that you never analyze first every bad news of Nokia, you just grab them all, simply interpret and overrate them and blame Elop alone for that.
As example: Instead of Nokia's long-term corporate credit rating you wrote it as Nokia's share price.

Being a good matter-of-fact analyst is not an easy job, especially if emotion and pride come into the game. But however it's still a pleasure and sometimes funny to read your blogs.

Rino

@Baron95 - Thank you for your clarification!..., then the current situation of Nokia is totally under control by The NBM, and what users interpret as poor performance of Nokia today, is just a fantasy driven by Mr. Ahonen?

Paul

Great data, as always.

But you're being way too hard on Apple. They're gaining market share in an exploding market, while holding margins with a premium product and limited distribution, while tons of new market entrants are selling a dizzying variety of competing models through a much broader range of channels. Nobody else pulls off this kind of a win.

I write this with an Android phone - my personal preference - in my pocket.

So Vatar

Just to point out:

After today's sell off on Wall Street Nokia shares closed at $5.02, down 7.4% for the day. Nokia's market value is now down to $16.8 B.

So, besides a few posters here and there no one seems to believe that Nokia's strategy has any future. Nokia is done. Elop and the Board finished them off in less than 12 months.

Cheap Beats By Dre

ey think of your analysis?.
It is very sad to be a spectator of the destruction of a company like Nokia!

kissmyass

Tomi is a bad analyst. That's why he got fired from Nokia in 2000. Just ask Nokia HR for detail if you know someone there.

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