Another Death in the Bloodbath: Google Buys Motorola Mobility

Well, I did say we can expect fireworks and that there are too many competitors in the smarpthones space. Today Google bought Motorola Mobility for 12.5 Billion dollars. Part of why the timing, is no doubt the 'sale' that is going on at Wall Street right now, because of the big share price declines, major corporations are on discount if you ever wanted to buy a rival.

WHAT'S IN IT FOR GOOGLE

First, this is a big move obviously. I think this is a good move by Google but one that gives it a conundrum. Lets first see what they get. Motorola had a deep patent portfolio in the mobile space. As Google has said tis future is completely tied to mobile, and as the rivals like Apple and Microsoft have been suing Google and its Android partners about patents issues, the patent portfolio is one major asset and reason to do the acquisition.

Secondly, they get a major handset maker. Motorola is a top 10 smarpthone maker and a top 10 overall 'dumbphone' maker. Motorola's current production level is of the capacity of about 8-9 million handsets made per quarter (30-45 million per year) of which currently two thirds are smartphones. Motorola has very aggressively been shifting its total production from dumbphones to smartphones and Motorola was the first major brand to go solely Android (leaving Nokia's Symbian alliance and Microsoft's Windows based operating systems). But just recently Microsoft has spoken in public that they 'might' want to join Microsoft Phone 7. I think now its obvious to see, that was a bargaining ploy, to force Google to boost its price and make its move, before Motorola signed any deals with Microsoft..  So remember, this puts Google now in the 'big leagues' with such rivals as Nokia, Samsung, LG, HTC, RIM and SonyEricsson - and gives Google more control of its handset division than Apple (who outsource their handset production to Hon Hai ie Foxconn).

Thirdly, Google gains a major handset brand in the two biggest national markets for smartphones - USA and China (Motorola is third bestsellling handset brand in the USA, and third bestselling smartphone brand in China). But in most of the rest of the world, what Motorola once was (had 21% market share) is now mostly gone. Yet, if Motorola had the carrier relationships and manufacturing and shipping capablity to support some 500 of the 600 carriers of the world - far more than say Apple - with some Google money and organization and 'intelligence' they could quite possibly now recover. But a brand is very valuable and in these big markets, Google would be wise to keep the Motorola brand alive for a while (perhaps shifting to Google over time) and in the rest of the world, might well want to shift more rapidly to Google/Nexus branding and just use Motorola's sales organization or what remains of it to break into those markets.

WHAT MOTOROLA GAINS

Motorola has been making losses for years now. So Motorola has not been able to capitalize on whatever clever ideas they may have had, and have been far sub-optimimized because at all times they've been struggling to just try to recover profitability. Its not like smartphones cannot be hugely profitable - look at Apple, HTC, RIM etc - and also low-cost 'featurephones' or 'dumbphones' can be profitable look at Samsung, ZTE and (the recent past of) Nokia. So its not like Moto was in a bad industry, they were definitely a diamond in the rough, that was just VERY BADLY mis-managed, as I've chronicled here on this blog for example many times.

If Motorola gains first of all some injection of cash, to hire good staff, to provide long-overdue salary increases to critical staff, to keep best staff from exiting the company etc - and to help boost Motorola marketing and sales activities (stop the bleed from the rapid decline of Motorola's once overwhelmingly powerful sales organization) - there is no reason Motorola could not have a resurgence similar to what it did with the Razr in the middle of the last decade. Google has shown a great interest and ability in innovating in the handset space both via Android and via the various Nexus phones. What Google didn't have was the sales organization and carrier relationships - now suddenly Motorola becomes - SuperMoto! Able to leap over buildings and more powerful than a locomotive (like Superman). There are no doubt many pending ideas sitting in Motorola's R&D and also at Google's R&D, that could be superphones as soon as next summer/autumn.

ANDROID ARMY

So what of the other Android makers? Samsung, HTC, SonyEricsson, LG, ZTE, Huawei etc.. Many of them had been recently in a 'partenrship' with a handset maker who controlled the operating system - I am talking of Symbian and Nokia. And we could see how quickly they all abandoned Nokia and Symbian when Android came along. I think its pretty clear, that all of these makers would prefer that Google is not both the owner of Android, and making a handset. So we come to a conundrum.. What should Google do.

One obvious choice is that Google keeps full control of Motorola, and becomes a full rival to the others of the Android army. Android already has 45% of the total smartphone market, with a vibrant Android apps space etc. Google can spin this story to the Android partners that Google will use the Motorola patents to protect the partners so they don't need to pay Microsoft (Microsoft earned more from Android patent fees than from Windows Phone 7 sales in Q2) or Apple (who just blocked Samsung's Android based Galaxy tablet PC from being sold in Europe) etc. But this is a murky area for a company who says 'do no evil'.

If Google holds 100% ownership of Motorola handsets and sells either Moto or Google branded smartphones, then I think several of the current Android army would seek alternate platforms. Samsung has its own in bada, and I think regardless, this move reinforces Samsung's HQ that the decision to invest in bada was the right move and they'll just migrate ever more of their smartphones from Android to bada. Expect bada to 'grow' into more mid-price and even premium phones soon. And remember, Samsung is the biggest of the Android makers.

HTC is the other big Android maker who just a few months ago complained about how badly they were doing in Microsoft based phones and that they'd shift ever more production to Android. They now feel certainly a bit like being stabbed in the back. So I'd expect HTC to shift some attention now back to Windows Phone 7. SonyEricsson might well also add some new focus to WP7.

Then it gets interesting with the rest. LG, ZTE and Huawei have all committed to MeeGo (the newest OS developed by Intel together with Nokia which was supposed to be Nokia's new OS). Because MeeGo is Linux based like Android, it will be a far easier change from Android to MeeGo. I would expect solid commitments to MeeGo by some of these players and possibly some pick-ups by MeeGo from other handset makers who suddenly dont' feel so happy about Google and Android. LG also is in the WP7 camp but I think because of their loss-making, the far cheaper option is to shift now to MeeGo rather than WP7.

IF GOOGLE DOESN'T KEEP MOTO HANDSETS

But I think there is a further twist that is possible. Google knows its handset manufacturers do not want Google in the race, that is what Google heard when they launched Nexus One. The carriers also are dubious about Google and fear it might be getting too powerful. Google might be best served to help Motorola onto its feet, and then float Motorola as an independent phone maker soon. And to communciate this very loudly and clearly to its Android family.

This is how I'd do it if I was Google. First, do a lot of cross-pollination of Google and Motorola talent. Give Moto a big long-term low-cost loan (like how Microsoft gave a loan to Apple to keep Apple alive) and then take a group of senior Google engineers and staff who have a particular love or interest in handsets - and send them onto 'sabbatical' for a year or two, to provide short-term brainpower to Motorola. A luxury billionaire-version of an 'apprenticeship' where the staff would remain Google employees, but would get to go do a year or two of 'real work' designing the next generation of superphones for Google - with of course shared patents coming out of that for both Google's and Motorola's shared intellectual property - and these staff would be guaranteed a return job at Google if they wanted to come back in a year or two. Meanwhile Google would also actively headhunt some of Motorola's best talent to pick to join Google..

Then prepare Motorola Version 2 to re-launch as an independent stand-alone handset maker (minus its patent portfolio and some selected elements and some premium talent). Use Google resources to produce a set of superphones for late 2012 time frame that should be able to propel the recovery of Motorola. And once that is done, when Motorola's handsets are back in making profits and back to growing market share, with a hit phone - then sell Motorola and launch it to the stock market back as an independent company - but of course one where Google would retain a small share like 20%.

This way Google would get the best of all worlds. One, they get their patents. Two, they get to 'fix' Motorola which for no conceivable reason is struggling in a market with a strong brand, good sales organization but producing losses year after year. Three, they gain a strong participant in the Android army, but as Google is open about the intent to launch Moto soon to be independent, they would not anger the Android army. And four, to the degree premium smartphones are a VERY lucrative hardware play (witness Apple) by helping Motorola position itself against Apple (powered by Google), Google could gain (20%) out of that opportunity.

Thats what I'd do. Else there is the danger that Android will go the way of Symbian haha.. And the shuffle behind the scenes today is very intensely Intel with MeeGo, Microsoft with Windows Phone 7 and even HP with Palm/WebOS recruiting handset makers to shift away from Android - and these three are all big giants who can afford to put some dollars on the table too - money that a loss-making LG or SonyEricsson for example could be very happy to get..

WHO IS NEXT

So, Motorola Mobility, which has annual sales of 13 Billion dollars was now sold for 12.5 Billion dollars, where its patent portfolio was a very major part of what made the deal so attractive to Google. Who is next? Nokia is the obvious target, their market cap is down to 20 Billion dollars, their annual sales are at 56 Billion dollars (last year) more than 4 times as big as Motorola's and Nokia has the deepest patent portfolio of any tech giant in the mobile space. They also have several highly valued assets that could be sold independently to make the purchase price of Nokia cheaper - ie Navteq the mapping, navigation and advertising unit; NokiaSiemens Networks the networking unit; dumbphones, smartphones, the Nokia brand etc. And on the inside track is Microsoft, no doubt Steve Ballmer's investment bankers have had a plan in place to buy Nokia from the start, just in case the Stephen Elop-led Nokia partnership turned sour at any point. Like Motorola, Nokia too is now making losses so its a very obvious take-over target and as to a Wall Street discount, Nokia is down 58% from its recent peak of early February, thanks to the mismanagement of new CEO Stephen Elop.

RIM is another obvious target, a former smartphone giant who has recently turned into losing sales. But RIM is still making profits. And compared to Motorola and Nokia, RIM is no patents powerhouse.

Its also possible that SonyEricsson might go, but then I think the obvious buyer would be Sony, who might want to stop the partnering with the Swedes, and take full control of SE. As SE is making losses again, Ericsson might be willing to throw in the towel, if Sony made the offer sweet enough.

HTC is a long-shot, they are growing and making profits. Their patents portfolio is not big so here is a rather expensive rival who would not have very much beyond simply the smartphones maker itself.

Who might be in the game? I think we can easily look at the top 10 top 12 biggest tech companies and find many of them, maybe most of them, eager to consider a purchase. In order of size the top 10 is: Samsung, HP, Hitachi, Siemens, Panasonic, IBM, Sony, Toshiba, Apple, Microsoft. Then we have plenty more in the mid-field like Intel, Amazon, Cisco, Fujitsu, NEC, Philips etc. If Siemens or Philips are experiencing some sellers remorse about getting rid of the mobile handset business (and looking at Apple in an envious way) this could be a fast way to get back. If a bit-player in mobile who once was big, like say Panasonic or NEC would want to get into it at full steam, this would be the fast way. Or some of the tech companies who may have had regrets for 'missing out' on the smartphones opportunity like say Cisco or IBM, this could be the fast track into that game. And obviously for those big players who seem to have mismanaged their opportunity in the past, like say HP and Microsoft - now they could buy a really big smartphone player and get back into the game for real.

Also don't forget the billionaires.. What if Carlos Slim the richest person on the planet - who already knows how important phones are to his business - he made his billions in the mobile telecoms operator/carrier business. Would he want to have America Movil branded handsets to his specs? Or say Hong Kong's richest man, Lee Ka-Shing who owns an empire from harbor installations to yes, mobile phone operator/carrier businesses of the Hutchison Group and Three branded operators in a dozen countries. He even actually owns a small handset maker in Europe called INQ Mobile. If he felt like buying one of these players - like say Nokia (and selling parts of it) - suddenly his early play into handsets would be amplified massively.. Keep a couple of the big Nokia handset factories like in China, India, Brazil etc- and sell parts of the piece he wouldn't find worth keeping etc..

NOKIA NEXT

I do think Nokia is the next on the chopping block. Nokia is a juggernaut, a profit engine that is being ruined by moronic management right now (remember, in the first 5 months of Stephen Elop, before he announced his crazy Microsoft strategy, Nokia was growing sales, growing revenues, growing average sales prices, and grew profits by a Nokia record; and Nokia had a hit new smarpthone OS version of Symbian called S^3 which was so successful in the first quarter it sold 5 million units worldwide - ever since Microsoft's Phone 7 has launched, it hasn't sold 5 million total up to now! and now we have seen, they even have a second even more desirable OS in MeeGo that only a lunatic CEO would refuse to sell when Nokia sits on the hottest pair of superphones, the N9 and N950 that would return Nokia to profits instantly. All that it takes is to remove Elop from the CEO chair and put any recent MBA graduate to run Nokia and it generates profits again) 

And I do think we'll see a visible public rush for it, not this sudden secret sale like Google's purchase of Motorola Mobility. Microsoft will have to bid, their whole mobile future is sitting on that one card they have left to play, Nokia. And equally, if there is a public contest, I think Intel would be foolish not to get into it - the perfect solution for Intel is to buy Nokia and abandon the Microsoft strategy, and for Intel to get its MeeGo OS based Nokia handsets as they wanted - such as the magnificent N9 and N950 that Nokia now is not giving most of the world. We could easily see four or five big tech giants bidding for Nokia.. In almost any case, whoever buys Nokia will sell off NokiaSiemens Networks - and Stephen Elop's career hangs in the balance of whether Microsoft gets him - any other buyer will fire Elop on Day 1 of owning Nokia.

Then I think the biggest loser of the Nokia Sweepstakes would probably almost instantly go use their money to buy RIM haha..  And we might see HTC also sold in the aftermath.

This kind of environment might also see some other 'friendly' mergers, as suddenly some of the players get very big. We might see other big mergers in this environment in the tech space, where one player feels they are losing out on the mobile space. What of Dell for example? Or HP's rather weak showing in mobile after they bought Palm. What of Cisco who has often played around mobile but still play only on the infra side and in a limited way in mobile.

Ok. Thats my thinking right off the news. Exciting times in the Bloodbath Year 2: Electric Boogaloo. I am pretty sure this is not the last merger/acquistion in this mobile space and we may well see a very public race for the carcass of Nokia. Stay tunes, same Bat-Channel, same Bat-Time..

Comments

[vvaz]

@EF

1) iOS is coming from BSD, not Linux
2) Apple hates Open Source (unless it can be screwed)
3) Apple don't want to touch "cheap" side of the business - s40 and co. are bad for its image

After consideration I think that even Navteq isn't interesting for Apple - Jobs never was in background stuff. If he can buy data for reasonable price and add his fat margin... Why buy a brewery when you can buy a keg and sell beer in mugs?

[khim]

@Peter: Nokia deliver the true value to its users.

True.

@Peter: But due to pretty poorly marketing, most users even do not know these benefits from a nokia phone.

False. Why are you so sure marketing can change anything here?

Apparently Nokia management like you just don't know the value of "good enough" phrase. THIS is what crippled Nokia. THIS is what you just refuse to understand. THIS is what will kill Nokia if insane "back to the past" Tomi plan will be approved for some reason.

There are many, many axises which determine mobile phone quality. And when you offer better capabilities users reward you. Up to a point. Beyond certain point they just stop - and no amount of marketing can budge them if you lose in some other axis. Less then day long battery life? No, people will reject this (think HTC Evo 4G). Week long battery life? Sure, we'll take it... Oh, wait - you mean I need to live with clunky interface? Then, no thanks, one day is enough.

It's the same with maps. Yes, it's true: Nokia offers "true value to its users". Does it matter? No: people are Ok with Google maps. It's "good enough" for " camping site":
http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2011/07/download-map-area-added-to-labs-in.html

Is it as convenient as Nokia's offer? Hell, no: you are limited in what you can do without data access. Is it enough for 99.9% of users? Probably yes.

And that's it: it's pointless to try to drum better quality beyond certain point. SACD and DVD-Audio offer superior sound, but people prefer MP3...

[Almonas]

The irony is, that OEM's do not really have anywhere else to go.

Buddy up with MSFT? But how would it be different? MSFT already has their special friend Nokia. And MUCH more rigid rules as far as differentiation possibilies are concerned.

HP/Palm? Would be interesting, but HP builds their own devices. It is basically the same situation.

Meego? There is no real ecosystem yet. And OEM's (maybe with exception of Samsung) are not known to be able to build one yet. Maybe, but it is a huge gamble, a leap of faith.

And the most ironic thing is, everyone and their dog urged google to do something to protect the OEMs. I do not think OEMs see this as an predatory move, as is a forced move.

[Eurofan]

@vvaz. Did I ever say iOS came from Linux? I hope not. iOS came from Unix via NeXTSTEP. Linux came from Unix via open source community process. Windows OS came from DOS and both came from? Another story, kind of like Symbian story.

From Wiki NeXTSTEP entry:

"NeXTSTEP was a combination of several parts:
a Unix-like operating system based on the Mach kernel, plus source code from BSD
Display PostScript and a windowing engine
the Objective-C language and runtime
an object-oriented (OO) application layer, including several "kits"
development tools for the OO layers

"NeXTSTEP was notable for the last three items. The toolkits offered considerable power, and were used to build all of the software on the machine. Distinctive features of the Objective-C language made the writing of applications with NeXTSTEP far easier than on many competing systems, and the system was often pointed to as a paragon of computer development, even a decade later.

"NeXTSTEP's user interface was refined and consistent, and introduced the idea of the Dock, carried through OpenStep and into Mac OS X, and the Shelf. NeXTSTEP also created or was among the very first to include a large number of other GUI concepts now common in other operating systems: 3D "chiseled" widgets, large full-color icons, system-wide drag and drop of a wide range of objects beyond file icons, system-wide piped services, real-time scrolling and window dragging, properties dialog boxes ("inspectors"), window modification notices (such as the saved status of a file), etc. The system was among the first general-purpose user interfaces to handle publishing color standards, transparency, sophisticated sound and music processing (through a Motorola 56000 DSP), advanced graphics primitives, internationalization, and modern typography, in a consistent manner across all applications."

" Apple's Mac OS X is a direct descendant of NeXTSTEP."

Steve Jobs is a software idealist and a hardware perfectionist and drives a very powerful two door Mercedes. He loves Unix and so he must love Linux. Steve Jobs is not worried about maximizing Apple profits or market share. He wants to protect Apple profits and market share. Apple is his Mercedes brand. He has an interest in preserving the VW brand, too: the unix, the linux, and the iOS infrastructures of good software writing and honest profits. Nokia running S40 and Meego is the VW brand, and yes VW makes and sells in all of the world but North America the most powerful, most heavy, most solid (all steel, no aluminum), most quiet, most safe, most high tech, most profitable, most open sourced (famous Dresden Glass Factory), no bs luxury 4 door sedan in the world, which is no threat whatsoever to Mercedes sales, the W12 Phaeton, made practically the same since 2003 and its stablemate, the twice as expensive and 10% costlier to make but 80% same sourced, uber profitable, Bentley Continental sedan and coupe. I think Steve Jobs at the end of his career would like nothing better than to buy a summer house next to Kofi Annan's in South West Finland and run his Nokia Linux/S40 division as chairman by skype. With all the migration paths from S40 to Symbian (if he keeps that line past 2013) to Meego to iOS to keep the ultimate top money profit in the hands of the Apple division. Some people would be allowed to stop their migration at top Nokia Meego phone and tablet just as some people can stop their luxury migration at the W12 Phaeton without going on to more expensive Mercedes models, no crisis for Mercedes. A W12 Phaeton LWB and a chauffeur is for some Chinese and Korean gentlemen as good or better than piloting their own new model Mercedes AMG to and from the office. Good for them and no harm to Mercedes. Just as the N9 is not going to slay or do too much damage to the iPhone. It will simply saddle up next to it in good cheer and take from Android, Blackberry, and whoever exists in the uber smartphone space (I don't think I am forgetting anyone in this space, Apple, Google, RIM,...) Good for German car competence as it were. In this case, good for Unix/Linux/iOS. It would certainly drive M$ crazy and there's nothing M$ could do about it but cry on their octapuses or african safaris as the case may be. I wish I was Steve Jobs' Finnish real estate agent, what fun that would be!

[Eurofan]

@vvaz: I see now where I said "And iOS comes from Linux and Steve Jobs loves Linux" above. I should have said iOS comes from Unix and Steve Jobs loves Linux, which comes from Unix, or something like that. When I post back and foth with Peter and rodrigottr I get excited because I know I am among my own kind, and we undertand each other, somehow.

[Tonn99]

@Eurofan

Idea of Apple buying Nokia is somewhat crazy but I still love it. Finns and Symbian fanboys really hate Apple.

This debate about Elop/Nokia's future is getting pretty fanatic... I hope we never see a real bloodbath.

[Eurofan]

@Tonn99: I kind of get carried away when I brainstorm back and forth with Peter. Still Apple would love Nokia's patent war chest. The new highpowered American patent lawyers have convinced the big players that the way to get around all the patent nonsense in phone tech is to have a big war chest and threaten other players to go nuclear, to say you can't use any of our patents unless you decide to pay us __ royalties/year or ___ royalties/phone shipped in order to use as many of them as you like. Kind of all or nothing. Now when the big two or big three or whatever each have a war chest big enough to go nuclear you have mutually assured destruction and cold war standoff: don't piss me off with lawsuits or ill piss you off with lawsuits and we'll both hate it, etc. Apple just partnered with Microsoft and some others to buy Nortel's patents. That will help. With Nokia's patents, Apple wouldn't be scared of shit in the patent war, its war chest would be plenty big enough to deter harassment and it could pretty much do whatever it wanted and copy whatever it wanted, etc, just like Nokia almost does today. So rationally, Apple would be highest bidder for Nokia just to get patents and spin off the rest. Now Nokia isn't too valuable without its patents so what is the value of spin off? Why can't Apple have a Linux-phone making Nokia brand subsidiary? Apple and iPhone is here to stay and %20 of the smartphone market, especially since it is the high end of the market, is enough to be the richest company on earth, hand held devices is that big an industry. Nokia as a Linux/Meego phone maker/tablet maker competes more with Android and whatever Microsoft can put together eventually than is does with Apple/iPhone/iPad, etc. Even if Nokia makes a $1000 god phone with Meego, Apple won't care. People who buy top of the line iPhone and top of the line Meego phone are different, like city mouse and country mouse, like Cadilac Escalade and BMW M5. It would be good strategy for Apple to support a 20% share of less lucrative Meego space for Nokia even if it has to run Nokia as a subsidiary. Plus the piss of Microsoft factor. That's got to count for something, since this Apple money is really money Steve Jobs has made for Apple since he came back from NeXT and worked his ass off for 13 years. So I see it happening and keep NSN as a barely profitable/barely money losing kind of super lab of real phone science for long term disruptions in the hand held computer space.

Hey Tonn99: Time to crank up the heavy metal and burn some logs by the water side. Elop is going to start to have a really hard time looking people in the eye in Finland in a few months time when the writing starts to appear on the wall. His plan is toast. And plan B is to run him out of town.

[peterw]

Google would own all of Motorola’s patents, and could license them to (or just share them with) other Android licensees if it wanted to. Motorola invented the cellphone almost 30 years ago, so this is worth a lot.

=======================
voicemail number for biz

[Eurofan]

Its worth a whole lot and Google will do exactly that, license all these patents with the license to use Android. Its a nice way to ensure that Android will emerge from the patent wars unscathed and so will all its licensees as long as they are making Android phones. It assures more ready adoption of Android by fence sitters and it gives relief to Android licensees vis a vis future (even past) claims against them by Microsoft and Apple. There will be a few big powers with patent war chests ready to go nuclear if challenged. Now we know Google will be one of them. Nokia already is one, though the rest of its business is in the tank, its patent war chest department is making good money from Apple right now. So the Google move on MMI kind of gives Apple the impetus to think about making a similar move on Nokia, despite its shared purchase with Microsoft, is it Intel? and two others if I recall, of Nortel patent vault. What is the ROI if Apple just buys Nokia and shutters the whole company? given savings every year of iPhone royalties to Nokia? What is additional ROI if Apple believes Nokia patents give it more legal strength against future challenges from MS, Google, others? Apple has cash and Google has made its counter move after Apple went in with others on Nortel patents. Will Apple respond now and up the ante? Will Apple and M$ get into a bidding war? Is the Nokia/M$ agreement so diabolical that it serves as a poison pill to takeover by Apple?

[Walter Adamson]

Wouldn't Apple buying Nokia, or any other organisation of significance, be a complete distraction? They would get the most bang for the buck by investing more in what they are doing right now, and leaving the realization of "synergies" to those who are compelled to wring them out of their mergers.

Walter @adamson

[PERUS]

@Eurofan:

I really envy you since you have so much time writing a novel. Considering that your comment was too big and you still even try to divide it into couple of parts.

However Mr. besserwisser Eurofan, thank you so much for your recommendation, I hope I would have so much time (like you) to watch them all. But Wow, you must have a lot of time to write, answer, copy pasting and watch the movies don't you? ;-) And about the stock, well it's nice and it's speculative trades, so let's see...

Hmm, reading your comments, it seems that you are the one who needs holiday the most. Just roll up a bit, enjoy the sunset there and think what you can do better to make another's life happier ;-)

Peace and out. Someone needs to keep the cash flowing in tough times...

[guillem]

"But just recently Microsoft has spoken in public that they 'might' want to join Microsoft Phone 7".

should be

"But just recently MOTOROLA has spoken in public that they 'might' want to join Microsoft's Windows Phone 7".

[vvaz]

@LeeBase

In addition companies are obliged to maximize profits for shareholders. I think we will not have to wait long till some MS/Apple shill masking himself as Google shareholder will accuse management of Google for not squeezing enough from Motorola.

In such situation Google will have to choices: a) explain openly that popularity of Android is paramount due to harvesting of data required for search part of the business - bad for PR b) give Motorola an advantage with long term damage to partners.

Google and Android have interesting times ahead.

[Almonas]

@vvaz

it is hardly something new or unheard of. Someone could equaly ask, why google is giving Android for free? The answer would be the same. Everyone nowadays is harvesting data and using it to sell the advertisments. Apple does this. Msft does this.

[Almonas]

@LeeBase

regarding "lose - lose": OEMs understand perfectly, that there is no other way. They NEED Moto patents to protect their asses from Apple and Msft. And from Moto itself since it CEO already hinted, that they *might* ask their fellow OEMs to pay for some patents they own.

I think OEMs are actually pretty happy with this outcome. It is better to lose some % of the market share than pay outrageous patent royalities for each product they sell. Of course, as long as El Goog does not try to create a monopoly.
Which it won't since it is not worth it. It is not like the Google has the magic bullet and suddenly will turn failing Moto into the shooting star. It would be like chicken advising hen how to live.
Google has no operating experience in hardware business. Moto has plenty. And is still failing.

I suspect, the biggest concern OEMs currently have is google coming along and asking "care to buy some moto factories & staff?". In exchange for patent shield :)

[Almonas]

@LeeBase
you usually do not spend $12.5 billion without having a clear idea how
you will be using it. I am sure El Goog patent lawyers throughly
evaluated Moto patent portfolio and found plenty of serious "smoking
guns". Otherwise you would not brag in public about your intentions to
protect as empty threats would look silly and do not help anyway.

It is not like Apple (or anyone else) is not afraid of Moto patents.
Patents are like the atomic bomb, just one key patent is enough to
destroy you. It is just a bargaining tactics since you can cross
lincense under very different conditions. Depending on how much pain you
are able to inflict. The licences for iOS are not necessary any cheaper
than the liecences for Android.

The thing to ponder: nowadays you absolutely do not need to OWN the OEM
to have the top-notch hardware tailor-made exclusively for you. You are
actually better off without it as you can pick and choose. There are a
lot of ODMs happy to design and manufacture whatewer you wish. According to the rumours, even Nokia has their upcoming WP handsets
designed and manufactured by Compal.

The only thing you ABSOLUTELY have to own is the patent portfolio. You
simply can't choose to licence it, sice the owner can be bought out
(look at Sun) or just cross-licence on their own terms with your
"enemy". Or simply go berserk and attack your other licencees. That's
why El Goog did not agree to jointly buy the Nortel patents with Apple
and Msft.

And frankly, El Goog has no other choice as to idemnify Android
licensees. They already have ALL the patent risk on themselves since
Apple and Msft can destroy most of Android licensees one by one, buy out
the rest like Motorola or SE and El Goog would be left standing alone
without anyone to produce. And without patent pool to protect their own
hardware should they choose to get produced their own.

The biggest licensees (Samsung and HTC) have fairly weak patent pools.
And the licensees with strong patent pools (SE or Moto) are fairly small
and cheap.

[nutiblogi]

"But just recently Microsoft has spoken in public that they 'might' want to join Microsoft Phone 7.", was ment: "But just recently MOTOROLA has spoken in public that they 'might' want to join Microsoft Phone 7."

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Am starting responses, doing in small sets

Hi Sander, teklemon, LeeBase, Baron, Titanium and Poifan

Sander - haha, no thats not what Google will do. They will nurse Moto back into health, I am sure. Moto is a good company that got into a bad spiral in a crash of market share and the wheels came off.

teklemon - I agree easier said than done, especially as Elop already tried to sell NSN to 3 buyers all said no. But on Nokia or MS buying SE or RIM? That is silly to me. SE is a struggling regional play, adds zero value to Nokia. RIM is now struggling in its own right, what Nokia has in the E-Series is its own RIM for as much as Nokia might want. As RIM is in the areas that do not grow because their smartphone penetration is most saturated (busienss and youth) therefore because Nokia already is there, no sense to even consider RIM..

LeeBase - well, I think we already heard from Google they want Moto to be quite independent. I do think they'll soon spin them off but we'll see. I've been wrong hundreds of times on this blog haha

Lee, about MeeGo, you forget about the sales channel. It matters ZERO, how good or bad your phone is, if you don't have the carrier relations. Nokia has it, which is why they can even push a total dog phone like the N97 to big sales. And a very competitive phone like Google's Nexus One fails in the market. No, Intel could not in any way create smartphone sales by itself, it needs the carrier relationships and on that, Nokia is the gold standard.

Baron - I do have the same definition of death as others. Motorola Mobility ceased to be.

Titanium - you make a good point and I was not thinking it through. yes, if Moto is recovered to health, yes it will be also a threat to other Android makers. But that will take time and the other Android makers can make hay now when the times are good, Moto takes a year or two to turn around and start its chase..

Poifan - Very good point about TV, I forgot that!

Thank you all, please keep comments coming

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Eurofan]

Hey Lee: I can't help it: "Still, it really does not matter which of us is right about Meego. That decision has already been made. There is no going back. We'll NEVER know 'what would have happened'. Actually, Lee, We're going to know at the end of 2012 what has happened, very exactly. The N9 will sell out even in its limited market distribution, at very high prices, maybe production will even be increased when it sells out early. There is a huge pent up demand for a well sorted, well made Linux phone. Androids have too much quality control issues and the OS is owned by Google, which rubs some people the wrong way. The N9 isn't better or worse than the iPhone, it is just different, from a different mindset. N9 owners won't care about apps the way iPhone users do, it's a different mindset, the N9 buyer wants quality and wants Linux. By the end of 2012 the WP experiment will be shown to be a flop. Slightly tweaking the software to remove clumsiness and bugs and bumping up the speed and memory of the hardware and the N10 will be ready to go at the end of 2012. Why keep Elop and his crew beyond that point? They're just in the way of sales. Oh yeah, because WP8 will be so great. Sure. Have we heard that before. Someone else made a very good point somewhere above, I forget which thread, that WP9-10 will probably be pretty good. Meanwhile iPhone and Android will be better and Nokia will be bankrupt. Is this what you want Lee? Do you own CDS on Nokia and just are hoping and praying that Nokia goes bankrupt? What else do you mean when you say, Still, it really does not matter which of us is right about Meego. That decision has already been made. There is no going back. We'll NEVER know "what would have happened". We're going to know how hot the N9 is by the end of THIS year. The only decision Nokia will face in January of 2012 is whether to increase production of the N9 and whether to provide warranty service on the phone in North America and Western Europe. People are sick of the telecom upgrade, subsidized, over-priced cell service rat race. In some crazy way, buying the N9 is a strike back at all that.

[Joe Silver]

android is great, google is a leading creative organization. Motorola has lost it long ago, but has strong distribution, manufacturing and engineering infrastructures. Hope Google will get rid of the motorola way of doing bussines (means not doing) and use the Motorla assets to make something better than the handsets of the arrogant fruit company.