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« Coining Term: "Elop Effect" when you combine Osborne Effect and Ratner Effect | Main | So What Value in Nokia Then? Considering Post Google-Motorola Purchase »

August 15, 2011

Comments

vvaz

@EF

1) iOS is coming from BSD, not Linux
2) Apple hates Open Source (unless it can be screwed)
3) Apple don't want to touch "cheap" side of the business - s40 and co. are bad for its image

After consideration I think that even Navteq isn't interesting for Apple - Jobs never was in background stuff. If he can buy data for reasonable price and add his fat margin... Why buy a brewery when you can buy a keg and sell beer in mugs?

khim

@Peter: Nokia deliver the true value to its users.

True.

@Peter: But due to pretty poorly marketing, most users even do not know these benefits from a nokia phone.

False. Why are you so sure marketing can change anything here?

Apparently Nokia management like you just don't know the value of "good enough" phrase. THIS is what crippled Nokia. THIS is what you just refuse to understand. THIS is what will kill Nokia if insane "back to the past" Tomi plan will be approved for some reason.

There are many, many axises which determine mobile phone quality. And when you offer better capabilities users reward you. Up to a point. Beyond certain point they just stop - and no amount of marketing can budge them if you lose in some other axis. Less then day long battery life? No, people will reject this (think HTC Evo 4G). Week long battery life? Sure, we'll take it... Oh, wait - you mean I need to live with clunky interface? Then, no thanks, one day is enough.

It's the same with maps. Yes, it's true: Nokia offers "true value to its users". Does it matter? No: people are Ok with Google maps. It's "good enough" for " camping site":
http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2011/07/download-map-area-added-to-labs-in.html

Is it as convenient as Nokia's offer? Hell, no: you are limited in what you can do without data access. Is it enough for 99.9% of users? Probably yes.

And that's it: it's pointless to try to drum better quality beyond certain point. SACD and DVD-Audio offer superior sound, but people prefer MP3...

Almonas

The irony is, that OEM's do not really have anywhere else to go.

Buddy up with MSFT? But how would it be different? MSFT already has their special friend Nokia. And MUCH more rigid rules as far as differentiation possibilies are concerned.

HP/Palm? Would be interesting, but HP builds their own devices. It is basically the same situation.

Meego? There is no real ecosystem yet. And OEM's (maybe with exception of Samsung) are not known to be able to build one yet. Maybe, but it is a huge gamble, a leap of faith.

And the most ironic thing is, everyone and their dog urged google to do something to protect the OEMs. I do not think OEMs see this as an predatory move, as is a forced move.

Eurofan

@vvaz. Did I ever say iOS came from Linux? I hope not. iOS came from Unix via NeXTSTEP. Linux came from Unix via open source community process. Windows OS came from DOS and both came from? Another story, kind of like Symbian story.

From Wiki NeXTSTEP entry:

"NeXTSTEP was a combination of several parts:
a Unix-like operating system based on the Mach kernel, plus source code from BSD
Display PostScript and a windowing engine
the Objective-C language and runtime
an object-oriented (OO) application layer, including several "kits"
development tools for the OO layers

"NeXTSTEP was notable for the last three items. The toolkits offered considerable power, and were used to build all of the software on the machine. Distinctive features of the Objective-C language made the writing of applications with NeXTSTEP far easier than on many competing systems, and the system was often pointed to as a paragon of computer development, even a decade later.

"NeXTSTEP's user interface was refined and consistent, and introduced the idea of the Dock, carried through OpenStep and into Mac OS X, and the Shelf. NeXTSTEP also created or was among the very first to include a large number of other GUI concepts now common in other operating systems: 3D "chiseled" widgets, large full-color icons, system-wide drag and drop of a wide range of objects beyond file icons, system-wide piped services, real-time scrolling and window dragging, properties dialog boxes ("inspectors"), window modification notices (such as the saved status of a file), etc. The system was among the first general-purpose user interfaces to handle publishing color standards, transparency, sophisticated sound and music processing (through a Motorola 56000 DSP), advanced graphics primitives, internationalization, and modern typography, in a consistent manner across all applications."

" Apple's Mac OS X is a direct descendant of NeXTSTEP."

Steve Jobs is a software idealist and a hardware perfectionist and drives a very powerful two door Mercedes. He loves Unix and so he must love Linux. Steve Jobs is not worried about maximizing Apple profits or market share. He wants to protect Apple profits and market share. Apple is his Mercedes brand. He has an interest in preserving the VW brand, too: the unix, the linux, and the iOS infrastructures of good software writing and honest profits. Nokia running S40 and Meego is the VW brand, and yes VW makes and sells in all of the world but North America the most powerful, most heavy, most solid (all steel, no aluminum), most quiet, most safe, most high tech, most profitable, most open sourced (famous Dresden Glass Factory), no bs luxury 4 door sedan in the world, which is no threat whatsoever to Mercedes sales, the W12 Phaeton, made practically the same since 2003 and its stablemate, the twice as expensive and 10% costlier to make but 80% same sourced, uber profitable, Bentley Continental sedan and coupe. I think Steve Jobs at the end of his career would like nothing better than to buy a summer house next to Kofi Annan's in South West Finland and run his Nokia Linux/S40 division as chairman by skype. With all the migration paths from S40 to Symbian (if he keeps that line past 2013) to Meego to iOS to keep the ultimate top money profit in the hands of the Apple division. Some people would be allowed to stop their migration at top Nokia Meego phone and tablet just as some people can stop their luxury migration at the W12 Phaeton without going on to more expensive Mercedes models, no crisis for Mercedes. A W12 Phaeton LWB and a chauffeur is for some Chinese and Korean gentlemen as good or better than piloting their own new model Mercedes AMG to and from the office. Good for them and no harm to Mercedes. Just as the N9 is not going to slay or do too much damage to the iPhone. It will simply saddle up next to it in good cheer and take from Android, Blackberry, and whoever exists in the uber smartphone space (I don't think I am forgetting anyone in this space, Apple, Google, RIM,...) Good for German car competence as it were. In this case, good for Unix/Linux/iOS. It would certainly drive M$ crazy and there's nothing M$ could do about it but cry on their octapuses or african safaris as the case may be. I wish I was Steve Jobs' Finnish real estate agent, what fun that would be!

Eurofan

@vvaz: I see now where I said "And iOS comes from Linux and Steve Jobs loves Linux" above. I should have said iOS comes from Unix and Steve Jobs loves Linux, which comes from Unix, or something like that. When I post back and foth with Peter and rodrigottr I get excited because I know I am among my own kind, and we undertand each other, somehow.

Tonn99

@Eurofan

Idea of Apple buying Nokia is somewhat crazy but I still love it. Finns and Symbian fanboys really hate Apple.

This debate about Elop/Nokia's future is getting pretty fanatic... I hope we never see a real bloodbath.

Eurofan

@Tonn99: I kind of get carried away when I brainstorm back and forth with Peter. Still Apple would love Nokia's patent war chest. The new highpowered American patent lawyers have convinced the big players that the way to get around all the patent nonsense in phone tech is to have a big war chest and threaten other players to go nuclear, to say you can't use any of our patents unless you decide to pay us __ royalties/year or ___ royalties/phone shipped in order to use as many of them as you like. Kind of all or nothing. Now when the big two or big three or whatever each have a war chest big enough to go nuclear you have mutually assured destruction and cold war standoff: don't piss me off with lawsuits or ill piss you off with lawsuits and we'll both hate it, etc. Apple just partnered with Microsoft and some others to buy Nortel's patents. That will help. With Nokia's patents, Apple wouldn't be scared of shit in the patent war, its war chest would be plenty big enough to deter harassment and it could pretty much do whatever it wanted and copy whatever it wanted, etc, just like Nokia almost does today. So rationally, Apple would be highest bidder for Nokia just to get patents and spin off the rest. Now Nokia isn't too valuable without its patents so what is the value of spin off? Why can't Apple have a Linux-phone making Nokia brand subsidiary? Apple and iPhone is here to stay and %20 of the smartphone market, especially since it is the high end of the market, is enough to be the richest company on earth, hand held devices is that big an industry. Nokia as a Linux/Meego phone maker/tablet maker competes more with Android and whatever Microsoft can put together eventually than is does with Apple/iPhone/iPad, etc. Even if Nokia makes a $1000 god phone with Meego, Apple won't care. People who buy top of the line iPhone and top of the line Meego phone are different, like city mouse and country mouse, like Cadilac Escalade and BMW M5. It would be good strategy for Apple to support a 20% share of less lucrative Meego space for Nokia even if it has to run Nokia as a subsidiary. Plus the piss of Microsoft factor. That's got to count for something, since this Apple money is really money Steve Jobs has made for Apple since he came back from NeXT and worked his ass off for 13 years. So I see it happening and keep NSN as a barely profitable/barely money losing kind of super lab of real phone science for long term disruptions in the hand held computer space.

Hey Tonn99: Time to crank up the heavy metal and burn some logs by the water side. Elop is going to start to have a really hard time looking people in the eye in Finland in a few months time when the writing starts to appear on the wall. His plan is toast. And plan B is to run him out of town.

peterw

Google would own all of Motorola’s patents, and could license them to (or just share them with) other Android licensees if it wanted to. Motorola invented the cellphone almost 30 years ago, so this is worth a lot.

=======================
voicemail number for biz

Eurofan

Its worth a whole lot and Google will do exactly that, license all these patents with the license to use Android. Its a nice way to ensure that Android will emerge from the patent wars unscathed and so will all its licensees as long as they are making Android phones. It assures more ready adoption of Android by fence sitters and it gives relief to Android licensees vis a vis future (even past) claims against them by Microsoft and Apple. There will be a few big powers with patent war chests ready to go nuclear if challenged. Now we know Google will be one of them. Nokia already is one, though the rest of its business is in the tank, its patent war chest department is making good money from Apple right now. So the Google move on MMI kind of gives Apple the impetus to think about making a similar move on Nokia, despite its shared purchase with Microsoft, is it Intel? and two others if I recall, of Nortel patent vault. What is the ROI if Apple just buys Nokia and shutters the whole company? given savings every year of iPhone royalties to Nokia? What is additional ROI if Apple believes Nokia patents give it more legal strength against future challenges from MS, Google, others? Apple has cash and Google has made its counter move after Apple went in with others on Nortel patents. Will Apple respond now and up the ante? Will Apple and M$ get into a bidding war? Is the Nokia/M$ agreement so diabolical that it serves as a poison pill to takeover by Apple?

Walter Adamson

Wouldn't Apple buying Nokia, or any other organisation of significance, be a complete distraction? They would get the most bang for the buck by investing more in what they are doing right now, and leaving the realization of "synergies" to those who are compelled to wring them out of their mergers.

Walter @adamson

PERUS

@Eurofan:

I really envy you since you have so much time writing a novel. Considering that your comment was too big and you still even try to divide it into couple of parts.

However Mr. besserwisser Eurofan, thank you so much for your recommendation, I hope I would have so much time (like you) to watch them all. But Wow, you must have a lot of time to write, answer, copy pasting and watch the movies don't you? ;-) And about the stock, well it's nice and it's speculative trades, so let's see...

Hmm, reading your comments, it seems that you are the one who needs holiday the most. Just roll up a bit, enjoy the sunset there and think what you can do better to make another's life happier ;-)

Peace and out. Someone needs to keep the cash flowing in tough times...

guillem

"But just recently Microsoft has spoken in public that they 'might' want to join Microsoft Phone 7".

should be

"But just recently MOTOROLA has spoken in public that they 'might' want to join Microsoft's Windows Phone 7".

vvaz

@LeeBase

In addition companies are obliged to maximize profits for shareholders. I think we will not have to wait long till some MS/Apple shill masking himself as Google shareholder will accuse management of Google for not squeezing enough from Motorola.

In such situation Google will have to choices: a) explain openly that popularity of Android is paramount due to harvesting of data required for search part of the business - bad for PR b) give Motorola an advantage with long term damage to partners.

Google and Android have interesting times ahead.

Almonas

@vvaz

it is hardly something new or unheard of. Someone could equaly ask, why google is giving Android for free? The answer would be the same. Everyone nowadays is harvesting data and using it to sell the advertisments. Apple does this. Msft does this.

Almonas

@LeeBase

regarding "lose - lose": OEMs understand perfectly, that there is no other way. They NEED Moto patents to protect their asses from Apple and Msft. And from Moto itself since it CEO already hinted, that they *might* ask their fellow OEMs to pay for some patents they own.

I think OEMs are actually pretty happy with this outcome. It is better to lose some % of the market share than pay outrageous patent royalities for each product they sell. Of course, as long as El Goog does not try to create a monopoly.
Which it won't since it is not worth it. It is not like the Google has the magic bullet and suddenly will turn failing Moto into the shooting star. It would be like chicken advising hen how to live.
Google has no operating experience in hardware business. Moto has plenty. And is still failing.

I suspect, the biggest concern OEMs currently have is google coming along and asking "care to buy some moto factories & staff?". In exchange for patent shield :)

Almonas

@LeeBase
you usually do not spend $12.5 billion without having a clear idea how
you will be using it. I am sure El Goog patent lawyers throughly
evaluated Moto patent portfolio and found plenty of serious "smoking
guns". Otherwise you would not brag in public about your intentions to
protect as empty threats would look silly and do not help anyway.

It is not like Apple (or anyone else) is not afraid of Moto patents.
Patents are like the atomic bomb, just one key patent is enough to
destroy you. It is just a bargaining tactics since you can cross
lincense under very different conditions. Depending on how much pain you
are able to inflict. The licences for iOS are not necessary any cheaper
than the liecences for Android.

The thing to ponder: nowadays you absolutely do not need to OWN the OEM
to have the top-notch hardware tailor-made exclusively for you. You are
actually better off without it as you can pick and choose. There are a
lot of ODMs happy to design and manufacture whatewer you wish. According to the rumours, even Nokia has their upcoming WP handsets
designed and manufactured by Compal.

The only thing you ABSOLUTELY have to own is the patent portfolio. You
simply can't choose to licence it, sice the owner can be bought out
(look at Sun) or just cross-licence on their own terms with your
"enemy". Or simply go berserk and attack your other licencees. That's
why El Goog did not agree to jointly buy the Nortel patents with Apple
and Msft.

And frankly, El Goog has no other choice as to idemnify Android
licensees. They already have ALL the patent risk on themselves since
Apple and Msft can destroy most of Android licensees one by one, buy out
the rest like Motorola or SE and El Goog would be left standing alone
without anyone to produce. And without patent pool to protect their own
hardware should they choose to get produced their own.

The biggest licensees (Samsung and HTC) have fairly weak patent pools.
And the licensees with strong patent pools (SE or Moto) are fairly small
and cheap.

nutiblogi

"But just recently Microsoft has spoken in public that they 'might' want to join Microsoft Phone 7.", was ment: "But just recently MOTOROLA has spoken in public that they 'might' want to join Microsoft Phone 7."

Tomi T Ahonen

Am starting responses, doing in small sets

Hi Sander, teklemon, LeeBase, Baron, Titanium and Poifan

Sander - haha, no thats not what Google will do. They will nurse Moto back into health, I am sure. Moto is a good company that got into a bad spiral in a crash of market share and the wheels came off.

teklemon - I agree easier said than done, especially as Elop already tried to sell NSN to 3 buyers all said no. But on Nokia or MS buying SE or RIM? That is silly to me. SE is a struggling regional play, adds zero value to Nokia. RIM is now struggling in its own right, what Nokia has in the E-Series is its own RIM for as much as Nokia might want. As RIM is in the areas that do not grow because their smartphone penetration is most saturated (busienss and youth) therefore because Nokia already is there, no sense to even consider RIM..

LeeBase - well, I think we already heard from Google they want Moto to be quite independent. I do think they'll soon spin them off but we'll see. I've been wrong hundreds of times on this blog haha

Lee, about MeeGo, you forget about the sales channel. It matters ZERO, how good or bad your phone is, if you don't have the carrier relations. Nokia has it, which is why they can even push a total dog phone like the N97 to big sales. And a very competitive phone like Google's Nexus One fails in the market. No, Intel could not in any way create smartphone sales by itself, it needs the carrier relationships and on that, Nokia is the gold standard.

Baron - I do have the same definition of death as others. Motorola Mobility ceased to be.

Titanium - you make a good point and I was not thinking it through. yes, if Moto is recovered to health, yes it will be also a threat to other Android makers. But that will take time and the other Android makers can make hay now when the times are good, Moto takes a year or two to turn around and start its chase..

Poifan - Very good point about TV, I forgot that!

Thank you all, please keep comments coming

Tomi Ahonen :-)


Eurofan

Hey Lee: I can't help it: "Still, it really does not matter which of us is right about Meego. That decision has already been made. There is no going back. We'll NEVER know 'what would have happened'. Actually, Lee, We're going to know at the end of 2012 what has happened, very exactly. The N9 will sell out even in its limited market distribution, at very high prices, maybe production will even be increased when it sells out early. There is a huge pent up demand for a well sorted, well made Linux phone. Androids have too much quality control issues and the OS is owned by Google, which rubs some people the wrong way. The N9 isn't better or worse than the iPhone, it is just different, from a different mindset. N9 owners won't care about apps the way iPhone users do, it's a different mindset, the N9 buyer wants quality and wants Linux. By the end of 2012 the WP experiment will be shown to be a flop. Slightly tweaking the software to remove clumsiness and bugs and bumping up the speed and memory of the hardware and the N10 will be ready to go at the end of 2012. Why keep Elop and his crew beyond that point? They're just in the way of sales. Oh yeah, because WP8 will be so great. Sure. Have we heard that before. Someone else made a very good point somewhere above, I forget which thread, that WP9-10 will probably be pretty good. Meanwhile iPhone and Android will be better and Nokia will be bankrupt. Is this what you want Lee? Do you own CDS on Nokia and just are hoping and praying that Nokia goes bankrupt? What else do you mean when you say, Still, it really does not matter which of us is right about Meego. That decision has already been made. There is no going back. We'll NEVER know "what would have happened". We're going to know how hot the N9 is by the end of THIS year. The only decision Nokia will face in January of 2012 is whether to increase production of the N9 and whether to provide warranty service on the phone in North America and Western Europe. People are sick of the telecom upgrade, subsidized, over-priced cell service rat race. In some crazy way, buying the N9 is a strike back at all that.

Joe Silver

android is great, google is a leading creative organization. Motorola has lost it long ago, but has strong distribution, manufacturing and engineering infrastructures. Hope Google will get rid of the motorola way of doing bussines (means not doing) and use the Motorla assets to make something better than the handsets of the arrogant fruit company.

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