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« LG Q2 Results: Smartphone sales 5.4M edges past SonyEricsson for 6th biggest | Main | Thinking the Unthinkable: What Value if Nokia Returned to Symbian - and MeeGo / Our movie today: Back to the Future »

July 28, 2011

Comments

Jonay

Lee, do you really think that MS will hold Nokia on life-support for the transition to take place? Don't you remember Sendo? MS sees clearly that mobile is the future of computing, and so they are trying again and again to get into it. But they keep failing. I highly doubt they hit the nail right now with WP7, it is not selling, period (remember, from very little to very little).

I just hope Tomi knows something we don't know yet, that "Keep the faith" of his last comment here. I'd really love to see Nokia raise again on MeeGo's wings.

Reonhato

I agree with almost everything you wrote here aside from the "dual-sim" is a mistake.

Take a look at the market in India, China, and some parts of SE Asia that were some of Nokia's strong markets. You will understand why low-mid end dual-sim devices are essential. The mobile phone culture and/or operators on those areas are not like the USA/Europe. Prepaid plans mostly dominate.

Endymion

Just do a search for "WP7" limitations and try to understand how an OS that is worse than the most recent incarnations of Symbian has any chance to succeed.

Yup, I dare say it. With so many features we expect on a standart nokia, android or iphone disabled by default, wp7 is worse than symbian.

Still, even if they were to fire Elop today, the wound runs too deep.

Here's a link comparing smartphone OS:

http://www.techtree.com/India/Features/Smartphone_OS_Comparison/551-114322-899.html

Surprised why existing WP7's sales are so low? Nah.. And the mango update doesn't address many of the features concern...

@rodrigottr

@leebase

11 feb was not a blunder. This kind of announcement of this size with both CEO's is very well planned before they do it. And any person who think over it just a little would see many more risks then positive outcomes from it.

Another evidence that it was not a blunder was the leaked memo from Elop. That was very well planned to justify something that would be since the beginning not accepted inside Nokia.

11 feb can only be explained by what Tomi said: it was to kill Symbian and making Nokia dependable of Microsoft.

@rodrigottr

@Tomi


Tomi. Something I also miss under this discussion is about how MeeGo would be important under a new era over technology. MeeGo was meant to be a free OS to run over anything and making everything integrated: computers, smartphones, tablets, netbooks, laptops, car GPS's, televisions, and whatever comes out.

MeeGo would make communicable many of our gadgets that don't talk. And MeeGo would make it completely open for anyone to do anything over it.

The thing that most annoys me about the iPhone is iTunes and what it represents. The iPhone is closed to the exchange of any kind of archive like PDF's, mp3, and can only be managed though iTunes. You cannot use bluetooth to share some picture or photograph with your friends. You cannot ctrl + c ctrl + v your files as you wish. You cannot use WiFi connection and transfer your files to your computer. The iPhone is totally build for Apple's interest. Not the buyers interest. My N8 let's me do all this as I want. That is why I bought it.

Also as it was very well noticed by media, the iPhone generates information about users spacial movements. And the same is truth for Android and Windows Phone. And what angry me the most is that who pays to be spied is YOU!

So MeeGo was not just another system. Was a system that different from it's peers, empowers the USER not the company behind it. With an empowered user is more difficult for companies to lock your hardware's potential or abuse of the use of your information. Personal information is the Oil in the era of information. Why would Facebook worth so many billions if not because of possessing so much personal information?

We must let our imagination go beyond. Mobile is just beginning. In the future mobile will be so much more integrated with our lifes that all our money, our political opinions, our way to behave on the space, our social relationships, will be related to our phones or whatever we will be. And in that moment, who controls the device controls the individual. That is what Apple, Google, Microsoft are fighting for and MeeGo was (and still is) a hope against that dark scenario that has a taste of conspiracy theory but has also a realistic side.

@rodrigottr

@LeeBase

So you are assuming that the agreement planned and exposed on 11th February by a experienced CEO of one of the most important technology companies ever seen, graduated in Harvard university with high honors on economics and mathematics, together with the CEO and experienced executive, graduated in computer engineering and management, former of another company, approved by a board of psychologists for the CEO chair, selected by a board of experienced executives, together couldn't anticipate the Osborne effect that many not graduated and unexperienced annalists, most of them geeks like me could?

So what else had they in mind?

To call this as a blunder looks much more like a denial to me.

Asko

@Leebase There might be anti-trust issues with the patent portfolio if Microsoft buys Nokia but probably not otherwise.

Anders And

This is just ridiculous. There is no analysis here, only bitter raving and whining. Nokia should be in front pulling. Instead they closed their eyes and ears and hoped it would pass when the iPhone and later Android came and changed the market, some 2-4 years ago. Incompetence in all levels at Nokia during the last 5 years is what we are witnessing, and we also see an Elop that is doing what it takes to build a new future for Nokia. This is a blooming industry, and Nokia has been a poor performer for way too long.

Nokia will be back very soon. They will not be the big brute we are used to, at least not regarding "traditional" smartphones, but they will be back. WP will be perfect for high end and carve out a decent market share, the N9 will be phenomenal and we will see more from that line, and S40 will revolutionize the low end.

It is time for you Tomi Ahonen to start doing some analyzes instead of the nonsense you are doing right now. It is time to move on, or you will end up being part of the debris of Nokias transition. It is not too late, but one more article containing pure nonsense, and you are forgotten.

jabra

Tomi,

don't your think nokia as lost his two wars: smartphone and tablets?
smartphones: they are behing samsung and apple. there are no clues that let hope they will come back;

tablet: all consumers has already or will launch tablet except nokia! we can see now it's very important to be on the market before it will be more competitive. nokia has no products to propose.

I'm really negative about their future.

@rodrigottr

@LeeBase @Asko


If Microsoft buys Nokia would have to prove that all decisions made by Elop, Microsoft former, was not to make Nokia cheaper in favor of Microsoft.

He is suspicious of insider manipulation and damaging the investment of many others investors around the world for the sake of Microsoft (which he still had some stocks). That is a crime. If I was a Nokia stockholder would sue him for it.

PERUS

Maybe it's better if Microsoft buys Nokia... specially if they want to be a real software or internet company

Rick

I've had nothing but Nokias since the mid 1990s, but if they die now I say good riddance to 'em. I've come to loathe them since they abandoned the N900, and even more after Elop got on board and they can't seem to kill MeeGo fast enough. I recently bought one of the last new N900s i could find, to be tucked away safely while I go on using my first one. I figure with the Maemo community, the power kernel and the CSSUs I can go on using a N900 for possibly 5 more years, because I see nothing in the near future that will come close to replacing it for me (the N9, with a capacitive screen and NO hardware keyboard? You've gotta be kidding me).

I don't see myself absolutely *needing* 4G for a very long time, so I will cling to my N900s for as long as possible - but that's out of love for Linux, not Nokia. So if Nokia dies tomorrow, I say fuck 'em! Everything that's happening to you is your own damn fault, and you brought it all upon yourselves. In fact you deserve it simply because of the way you abandoned Maemo/MeeGo and went with Microsoft - the worst of them all!

All stories have to end sometime. It's just a shame this one couldn't have a happy ending.

Mikko Martikainen

@rodrigottr

You seem to grossly misunderstand what it is that Apple does. You think that Linux, MeeGo and all other Open Source is empowering the users? No. They are empowering only the technologically advanced users. Currently, Apple is the only major player who is interested in empowering the general user base. Your misunderstanding comes from not realizing that normal people do not understand how computers work. It is not empowering normal users to require them to understand more about the inner workings of a computer. It is the exact opposite.

You may think it is wrong to "dumb down" computers, or to make a "closed" ecosystem where devices work together but don't work so well with the outside. And I will grant you that it would be really great if we could have all devices interoperating seamlessly, regardless of the manufacturer. Sadly, we have only a handful of examples where such interoperability has in fact been successfully implemented, and we countless examples where seemingly good intentions have gone totally wrong. So while the aim of MeeGo is/was good, even it would, at the very best, just become another ecosystem where things work well in the inside and not so well on the outside.

@Tomi

This article was a clear improvement from your Nokia rants. I'm not quite as pessimistic as you are, but I agree that things are really serious. I still maintain faith that Nokia will survive and enter a new growth phase, but it is going to be painful. It will take aggressive measures to cut costs, but luckily Nokia has enough cash and assets to survive until it can become profitable again. As others have pointed out, I don't really believe a hostile takeover and subsequent breakup and auctions are likely, simply because of Google, Apple and Microsoft. Any intention to takeover Nokia will result in actions from the "big three" and as a result, I believe there is no chance to actually buy Nokia at below the real value of the assets and brand.

Lemonsanver

IMO, Nokia in the smartphone space have been dead since about 2009, they couldn't respond with a decent touch screen phone to counter the iPhone, had a confused UI solution on things like the N8, see:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/blog/2010/oct/19/nokia-n8-reviewed#general)
, and a very mixed message for consumers with the Ovi brand.


Alongside this I believe that they thought that people would naturally respond to, and be loyal to, the Nokia brand and thus took their strong market share for granted.

They operate in a legacy fashion by firing out Nokia N/X number models when the consumer probably seeks simplicity above "tech spec". [ Their insistence on shipping devices with the geeky Nokia font throughout their UI also doesn't help with consumer appeal. I could go on .... :) ]

All of this is pre-Elop/Osbourne statement and endemic to the Nokia machine.

p.s. I still think they could have some hope in the feature phone space!

Sane

Rather pessimistic view of things. Samsung continues to do well and runs Bada as well as Andriod. Therefore, you can do well with just the hardware with quality platform. Nokia is still the leader in the developing markets and that is the growth engine that will keep it going. I think it is premature to conclude that it is Game Over. They have had a bad innings but I think they will not phase out by end of year

A Bell

I'm curious to know what price someone would be willing to pay to buy Nokia. What is Nokia worth? On a break up basis, going concern basis?

Any thoughts?

Eurofan

Important number to know now for several vital reasons. Anybody know the answer?

Jessie

Reports have suggested that Elop being chosen as the CEO was done because of pressure from American investors:

http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/01/26/nokia.may.have.picked.elop.as.ceo.under.pressure/

Pablo

Convenient but inaccurate to blame one person for Nokia's current woes. (Though putting all of Nokia's eggs in W7's basket was definitely a mistake).

First, nobody could have prevented Apple's rise to the top. Second, Nokia missed the Android boat back in 2009 when they needed to get on it. Apple's share gains could not be prevented, but Nokia's market share loss to HTC and Samsung sure could have.

I'd rather be Nokia than RIM though. RIM's entire business model depends on email and messaging. Whereas people bought Nokia because they made good phones for the money. And they will again if Nokia embraces the OS of choice (which today is Android) and continues to innovate in other ways. What Nokia needs now is the staying power to make the changes needed.

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