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« Apple 20.3M iPhones in Q2. WOW. Throws gauntlet to Nokia and Samsung: stakes claim at biggest smartphone maker status | Main | Mid-year Update to Nokia Smartphone Forecast to 2011, with View to 2012 and new Microsoft based phones »

July 21, 2011

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Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

I will return with individual comments. I wanted to mention, I now have done part 2 in this analysis, the projection for Microsoft smartphone sales in years 2012 and 2013. I think you will find the analysis illuminating

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

(Second set of replies, am still on 21 July)

Hi Boris, harry, The, KPO, Michael, peter, cygnus, TPTBH and Jonathan

Boris - very true, and like I said in the blog, athat is equal to about 1B US dollars worth of real operational loss before we count in the one-time royalty payment

harry - you say you want to give Elop time. That is what I also felt in February. But after the reseller boycott started, that is when everything changed. Nokia WILL NOT SURVIVE. Look at the catastrophic collapse of its sales and profits. No company ever has seen this total collapse of sales. Now there is no time left to let Elop explore some new strategy. He has to be fired now and the Microsoft alliance dissolved. Please harry go read my blog with the projections of how badly Microsoft will sell in 2012 and 2013. Nokia WILL NOT SURVIVE this.

You talk about the ecosystem being the key. But again, Nokia had the best - or arguably second-best ecosystem in December 2010 before Elop started to burn those platforms in February. 130 carrier deals for carrier-billing. That takes YEARS to achieve! Nobody else comes close. That is what Microsoft DESPERATELY wants from Nokia. Look at the langauge support. 400,000 developers! The second-bestelling app store in Ovi. The only OS with a migration path from legacy OS to next gen OS (Symbian via Qt to MeeGo). Elop HAD the best ecoystem by far, he killed it.

The - we don't know that yet. I will be first to celebrate Samsung if they pass Apple but it will be close.

KPO - no, Elop knew what he was doing, he wanted only Microsoft and never gave Android any chance (nor MeeGo nor Symbian S^3). He came in as the hatchett man to kill both Symbian and MeeGo and take Nokia to Microsoft. To what degree the Nokia Board has been in agreement with this, and to what degree he may have fooled the Board, we may never know. All of his actions are consistent with ensuring MS and killing all options

Michael - thanks, you are entitled to your opinion haha..

peter - yes, that is true, fire Elop and go MeeGo full steam (and get short-term revival for Symbian ie break the reseller boycott) is the only way to save Nokia.

cygnus - thanks. thanks. thanks. Cheers :-)

TPTBH - we may well see that soon

Jonathan - I appreciate what you say. Much of what you write, I would have agred to, when analyzing Nokia last summer or up to the results of Q3 of 2010. But Jonathan, the evidence - the FACTS - are crystal-clear. Nokia's Symbian was DEFINITELY back, loved by consumers, sold in massive numbers - grew Nokia profit MARGIN by 22% and grew Nokia PROFIT by ... 68% !!!!!! Got the biggest jump in Nokia ASP ever - 15% - which reversed the usual decline of 7% in ASP. This is EVIDENCE that Symbian was a winner. And that happened in Q4 of 2010, with the new OS version called S^3 - which was BTW supervised by Anssi Vanjoki - and it was Elop - and only Elop - on Feb 11 that killed Symbian's revival. What you write, Jonathan is the old story, it is not reflective of the FACTS as emerged about Q4. Please Jonathan, deal with reality here with us, ok, not fantasy and myths.

Ok, thats part 2 of the replies, I'll return with more soon

Tomi Ahonen :-)

SWAP

Tomi look at the time Symbian Anna is taking to come to consumers of N8/E7. They are unable to deliver it in time. Complete fail. If this continues Belle won't come before June 2012.

Patrick

Tomi, I think you have become too much emotionally involved to be objective in all this Nokia matter.
The damage to Nokia happened a long time before Elop.
The Finish strategy and working culture worked in the past, but was not up to the new wave the mobile world has been going through the last years.
Nokia was a scattered environment with a lot brilliant ideas, but no coherence. It has been like that as long as I know Nokia, and despite that they were working very hard on the ecosystem, it still was the case.
They never got their ecosystem right.
Apple did exactly the opposite.
I'm also a European like you and I feel for the Finnish people in this, but the fact is that Nokia did not adapt fast enough to the extremely fast moving mobile market.

Before someone dies, it is typical that the person first seems to have a good period for one or more days what gives the family hope again. And then death seems to strike unsuspectingly.
That was happening to Nokia in my opinion : they were already dying for a long time, but they had a last good period.
What Elop did was putting the trodes on the nearly dead body to try to revive it with an electric shock. His fault is maybe that he put the trodes there a little bit too soon.

But nevertheless, in my opinion, by shifting to Windows Phone 7 with a very promising ecosystem, he did the right thing.
If it is enough for Nokia to survive has to be seen but Symbian and Meego were the most sure way to Nokia's death.

Bob Shaw

In any given price segment, the differences in performance between iPhone, Android, WP7, Symbian, Meego are insignificant to an average consumer. These differences may be more evident to a minority of technical people but hardly matters in terms of sales. Remember iPhone did not care for the opinion of the technocrati, it marketed straight to the average consumer.

The success for any platform going forward will boil down to marketing and promotion to an average consumer. Verizon in US successfully propelled Android to match iPhone in sales with a $200M marketing budget. This was done by Verizon to compete against iPhone when iphone was only available exclusively at one carrier i.e. AT&T. Once Android caught momemtum in US, it got momemtum in Europe and than the rest of the world.

Microsoft is planning a $500M marketing campaign for its new Windows Mango based phone. Combine this with a $120M marketing campaign to be launched by Nokia for WP7. Once it catches the eyes of the average consumer, any resistance (if it exist) to WP7 from Carriers will evaporate.

Marketing muscle is needed to carve out a space that is currently divided between iPhone and Android. The lack of traction to HP's WebOS and RIM's Blackberry is due to the absence of marketing muscle. Both of these do not have any Skype related carrier issue.

This needed marketing push for success cannot be provided by Nokia alone for Meego or Symbian but by Microsoft and Nokia combine for WP7. In fact Meego and Symbian will benefit from uplifting of Nokia brand in North America and Europe from this marketing blitz by Microsoft-Nokia for WP7.

Eurofan

@ Bob Shaw: Well said, Bob. Thank God and the gods that in America value is insignificant to an average consumer. I am not trying to be smart or cynical. I agree with you. Cadillac sold well the Cimmeron for two or three [by three years the joke was so widespread the game was up] in the 80's which was a gold painted grill and cheap leather seats dolled up Chevy compact with more than 10 times the Chevy's inherent markup. Cimmeron never did catch on in Europe or elsewhere, but those were the days when the rest of the world was deprived of the charisma of our "black" magical President and the charms of international syndication of MTV's Jersey Shore. I think if we could get Mr. Barry Obama to use Nokia's new WP7.5 like he used to publicly use RIM's products or get Snookie to publicly be seen to be updating her twitter profile on the streets of Hoboken using a new Nokia WP7.5, we could make enough profits in the North American market in the next three years to get our bond rating back into the low A's and get Nokia thinking again of their future 3 years from now, to quote between the lines from E.S.'s latest report from the "Front."

Again, Marketing muscle is needed to carve out a space that is currently divided between iPhone and Android. America invented the concept of marketing and the language of economic space. America remains the greatest field of opportunity for these dark sciences, among many others. Since Nokia is a world brand and its Finnish Civil Service like corporate overhead expenses can only be maintained with a top line supported by Mr. Ahonen's [much derided] concern with world market share for all hand held devices of whatsoever capability [the inherent synergistic value of which I agree completely with mr. Ahonen, being more of a Toyota man than a Porsche man, though my real sympathies obviously lie with the splendid mix of both models: VW], and since those low A's won't come without some New York level bottom line performance, I must say, mr. Shaw, from your mouth to God's ears and to the minions of the gods.

Off to my tire dealer. My winter rated Nokians are going to have to last me longer than I planned, so I'm going to have to start rotating them in the Summer too: I hear Elop plans to repurchase and fold all old Nokia spinoffs back into a super new future spinoff entity, NavtekGroup, which will be sold to China. In order to disguise the absurdity that is the inherent value of that colossal waste of money that Nokia threw into mapping during the heyday of pre-iOS and pre-Android OS Nokia corporate profits, great leader Elop plans to use the proceeds from this sale to bump up Nokia's consulting budget so he can finally rid the world of smugness and reintroduce proper deference to those colossases of modern Executive Compensation for idiots with Bachelor's Degrees, such as himself. At least the avitar of his kind.. i'm getting sleepy form talking out loud alone in my car on the highway drafting behind mobile wifi hot spots such as the tricked out Escalade in front of me with Texas plates and kid's soccer stickers on the back in front of me. My n80i is good for blind work but I've shut off paying for the cell signal thanks to internet telephony and the widespread availability of wifi in my life. Why pay the average $100/month ATT&T gets with its subsidized iPhones, locked in for two years, or the 75$/month ATT$T would require from me to renew my dormant minimal voice and limited data account? But I digress..

Stock News

Thank you very much for all these fantastic resources.

ENTB

Michael

I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment.

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that's exactly what this criminal Nokia CEO Steven Elop has done to Nokia.

Stocks to Buy

I read your post. it was amazing.Your thought process is wonderful.

ENTB

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targets, at least one year to € 100 million, the fully the capacity of developing countries, industrialized

makc

as someone from actual Nokia shareholders pointed out, you dont sue/fire ceo if you don't like what he is doing. you just sell your share and buy some in the other company.

Electronic Cigarettes

really? Not even announcing you gonna abandon your most important product without a ready product to substitute? That is full blame on Elop. Nokia was profittable on Q1. Why isn't it now?

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Personally I'm happy because of Nokia's downfall. After selling me crap smartphones for years with no real invention, the time has come for competition to put them where they really belong.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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