Whose On First? Its Three-Way Race with Apple, Nokia and Samsung vying for Title World's Biggest Smartphone Maker Q2

First, my congratulation to Nomura analysts. I try to monitor the smartphone space and I did see that Apple seemed to be edging ahead of Nokia for Q2 and called it, but I missed the simultaneous surge by Samsung. Nomura calls Samsung as the biggest smartphone maker for Q2.

Well. We'll know soon enough, by end of July we'll have the quarterly results from all three companies. But lets read a bit of the tealeaves and see why this is so intriguing right now. Whose on first?

AS RECENTLY AS

So, lets start with how inconceivable this all is. For full year 2010 smartphone market, Nokia towered over its rivals, sold 100 million smartphones and was literally twice the size of number two (RIM 48 million) and obviously bigger than number 3 (Apple iPhone 47.5 million). Where was Sammy? Samsung was down in 5th place (HTC ahead of it for full year 2010 smartphone sales) and Samsung sold 24 million smartphones for the full year.

So. Just six months ago, it was 'fair' to say, that Nokia was twice the size of Apple; and Apple was twice the size of Samsung. And RIM was technically bigger than Apple, and HTC was technically bigger than Samsung., How come we now are considering these three to be running neck-to-neck for the title of world's biggest smartphone maker?

Ah, the volatile world of the smartphone bloodbath. First, RIM (ie Blackberry) and HTC have stumbled a bit. By Q4 they had fallen behind their close rivals and by Q1 of this year, Apple had pulled well ahead of RIM; and Samsung had pulled well ahead of HTC.

NOKIA

But the big reason why its neck-to-neck is of course the Stephen Elop Nokia smartphone customer give-away of February 11, when he announced Nokia would end the Symbian platform, abandon Nokia's migration path to MeeGo, and switch to Microsoft OS instead. This meant an instant collapse of Nokia smartphone sales. That is why Nokia is not towering over Apple and Samsung. Still in Q1, Nokia (24 million) was 25% bigger than Apple (19 million) and almost twice as big as Samsung (13 million).

The big reason why this is even in the cards, is the Nokia global sales channel boycott and smartphone unit sales collapse. We have no idea how low Nokia sales have fallen, but I've done some conservative modelling, and figured that Nokia was well below 15 million smartphone unit sales for Q2. They might be as low as 12 million.

Remember that Nokia invented the smartphone and has led the market ever since its inception. For fourteen years they have been the biggest player in town. That changes now in Q2, 2011, when they fall to second or even perhaps third in the rankings.

APPLE

So its gotta belong to Apple, right? They had 18.7 million smartphone sales in Q1  vs Samsung's 12.6 million (and RIM's 14.5 million). And if we look at previous years, usually Apple does about the same level of iPhone sales from Q1 to Q2.

Except, that for this year, that pattern is broken. Before Apple released its new iPhone at the last week of June, which would give several million units of sales (the loyalists who stand in line, you know). So this year we are not getting an iPhone end of June. The gossip now says the iPhone 5 or whatever it is called, won't be released until end of September.

So the iPhone sales 'should have been' in the 17-18 million range. If we cut off the June sales of a couple of million, then iPhone sales could be as low as 14-16 million. Well, there also is the White iPhone and the Verizon CDMA iPhone etc, but still, most analysts do expect that iPhone sales will be below the level that Apple did in Q1 of this year (counting calendar quarters, not Apple Fiscal quarters, obviously).

When I projected the 'Apple is bigger than Nokia' calculation, I was expecting Nokia smartphones in the 12-14 million range, and iPhone in the 15-17 million range. I was expecting a new iPhone for June. Now I'm cautiously lowering the iPhone Q2 estimate to about 14-16 million range. Still expecting it ahead of Nokia, but yeah, what about them Koreans? Can Samsung pull a swift surprise?

SAMSUNG SUNG SUNG, SING-SANG-SONG

(Wasnt there some Eurovision song all those years ago, Sing-Sang-Song? Dutch? German?)

So yeah. I honestly didn't see this coming, so thanks to the guys at Nomura for spotting it. And its intriguing, it is close. First, Samsung has recently been strongest growing smartphone maker. In the period from Q4 to Q1, when the industry grew by 2%, Samsung grew by 20%. In one three-month period. And if we just assume same growth rate, Samsung would be at... 15.1 million smartphones for Q2! Just by holding same growth level, they are in the thick of it. And if my other assumptions are roughly correct, they'd definitely pass Nokia already.

Except that this period usually has growth in it, so if the industry grew 10%, and we add that to Samsung ie they grew 20% more than industry, and we try 30% growth from Q1 to Q2, then Samsung would be at 16.4 million! That is well at the top end of where we expect Apple to come in with the iPhone. It is definitely conceivable, plausible, that Samsung may have passed Apple iPhone also, in Q2.

But lets do a bit of sanity checks here. Google's Android numbers. Google tells us that Android activations now in June are at the rate of 400,000 per month.. Thats a quarterly level of 36.5 million. There are five major handset makers doing Android phones plus many smaller ones. HTC is the biggest, not Samsung. I estimated for Q1 that Samsung had a quarter of all Android activations. If we say its the same now in Q2, then that would be 9 million Samsung Android phones.

Then for us to hit the over 15 million level, we'd need another about 6 million Samsung smartphones sold using bada, Microsoft Windows Mobile (the old OS) and Microsoft Windows Phone 7 (the new OS). In Q1 the total sales of bada were about 3 million. So that could have grown maybe 50% from then, and be in the 4.5 million range. Sammy would still be 1.5 million short just to be 'in the game'. And total Microsoft based smartphones were about 3 million in Q1, but since then, we've heard there is a Microsoft boycott because Microsoft bought Skype. Also some Microsoft vendors have been reducing their support of Microsoft most visibly HTC who said they are moving their capacity to Android. The Microsoft OS might see a flat or even declining sales. And its not likely Samsung could have half of that business.

So Samsung is a bit short, by this 'bottom-up' analysis. So I am not saying it can't happen. First, it obviously depends very much on exactly what number Apple reports, the lower the better for Samsung.

Secondly, Samsung seems to be hot in Android. It could have sold more than 9 million Androids, that is the 'easiest' way to get Sammy to the about 16 million they need. And they might be having a monster quarter over at bada, but here my gut is a bit queasy. You would expect Samsung to have celebrated its 10 millionth bada handset and if that hasnt' happened yet, then we're not in the 4M or more sales for Q2. But Samsung could also have deliberately waited with the announcement, to splash big, when they announce a world-record number and claim top dog status! We'll have to see.

RIM-RIM-RIM?

Is there room for a RIM in this thing? Ring-ring-ring? Well, RIM did issue a warning that they expected market share losses in this current quarter (they report already this week so we'll know soon enough). I don't see RIM in the running to win it, but they might just make it to kick Nokia down yet another notch. It will be close again, but if RIM is marginally down from Q1 (14.5 million) to say 13 million, that is smack-middle or where I expect Nokia smartphones to come in for Q2. Could go either way, could go either way. Nokia might make the tumble in one 3 month period from world's biggest to second, third and finally fourth biggest. But I don't see it in the cards for Blackberry to fight for the lead (and just watch me be proven wrong haha)

IF I HAD TO CALL IT..

Obviously I dont have enough granularity and real time data across all markets to call it at this close a race. But this is a fun parlor-game, if I had to try to guess Q2, I rank them like this: Apple iPhone biggest, Samsung second biggest, RIM Blackberry third and Nokia down to fourth. But some of these can be split by less than a million units so it really is too close to call until we have the numbers.

But into the end of the year? I projected the Nokia Elop give-away to run Nokia into this level towards the end of the year. With the global Nokia reseller boycott, the damage to Nokia is far worse, they are headed to single digits before the year is done, easily. That means far behind HTC, and wrestling with the 'usual gang' of the other makers who report losses most quarters: Motorola, SonyEricsson and LG..

RIM should hold 'steady' but not grow, so they're falling into the aim of HTC and by Q4 HTC will have passed them. Apple? The delay with iPhone 5 is very bad news, that means that even if Samsung runs even with Apple, Sammy will pull ahead strongly by Q3 and by Q4 is far ahead of Apple, even as the iPhone should have a spectacular Christmas. So for the Q4 ranking (which is about as accurate as forecasting the US presidential elections of 2020 haha) I'd rate Samsung biggest, Apple number 2, HTC number 3, RIM number 4, and likely LG pulling away from the pack into number 5, as they get their Android act together and use their scale. Nokia-Moto-SE would fight for who gets to be 6th biggest at year-end. So in other words, whether Samsung now passes Apple or not, the Samsung trajectory is strongest and they should end the year far ahead of the pack as the biggest smarpthone maker. What is their Android/bada OS split at Q4, that is perhaps the most fascinating issue to monitor as the second half of this year unfolds..

But right now, mid June, for Q2, its too close to call between Apple and Samsung. But I think its safe to say, Nokia is no longer on top. We will know soon, its a dynamic market and exciting time in the Smartphone Bloodbath this year 2. Stay tuned.

Comments

[PCB]

Q4 2011 is gonna be a great qarter for Nokia. Elop promised a WP Nokia phone before end of Q4. Now leets look at it: MicroSoft only have one chance. If Nokia WP flops, Android wins and MicroSoft will loose the mobile OS market for ever. MicroSoft is gonna do EVREYTHING they can to make NOKIA WP a success. MicroSoft could easily put down 1 billion USD Q4 to help Nokia launch the Nokia WP meaning a cost for retailers of only 80 USD dollar per phone for a high end phone ...

I think 5 million sold NOKIA WP in US alone Q4 2011, supported by HEAVY subzidez from microsoft. Lets say 3 million in the rest of the world.

Now leets talk Meego. We KNOW that Nokia will release at least one Meego phone this year. Lets say late Q3. Meego still gonna be a big hit in Europa and Asia for symbian users looking to upgrade. Lets say 6 million sold units in Q4 alone. Might there also be a MeeGo Nokia Ipad selling 1 million in Q4?

Now, Nokia still is gonna have symbian 3 (4) in Q3. That meanes sales of N8, E7, C7, E/N/C-series. Nokia probably gonna produce at least a couple of new Symbian 3/4 phones. Lets say 12 million sold units in Q4, Q4 being Christmas quarter.

So, basically we are looking at Nokia selling about 26 million smartphones in Q4 2011.

2012 could be a great year for Nokia. Nokia WP "Ipads" coming in Q1 2012? Nokia having 3 WP-phones in Q1/2 2012 supported by MicroSoft, selling probably over 10 million phones per quarter.

How about Nokia software 2012? Well, i believe Apple is heading for using the Nokia maping sysetem Navteq --> Apple just agreed to pay royalties to Nokia for old patents, might be an indicator that Apple is trying to implement the Nokia NavTeq system in its next iPhone 5, why else would they settle a billion dollar law-suit with Nokia?

[PCB]

Apple just HATES Google and Android right know.

In the 80s MicroSoft fooled Apple by being given their OS system to develop spreedsheets to it, MicroSoft later copied the OS-system and marginalized Apple.

In 2006 Google began to fool Apple by being given the source-code to iOS and the ide of a user friendly smartphone in order to develop maps, mail, finacials and search for the Iphone. Google later took the entire concept and transformed it to Android. Without Android Apple could be selling 50 million iPhones per quarter, so Apple is upset.

I think Apple is gonna switch to WP-services like Nokia Maps and Bing search. So Nokia Software should ghet a BIG upswing in Q4 going to 2012

[PCB]

Take a look at this MeeGo-device from HTC just 1 month berfor Nokia decided to "kill" MeeGo:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9uCxsqhggho&feature=related

Now, if Nokia is coming out with a MeeGo product that is even close to that HTC MeeGo demo device, then Nokia MeeGo is gonna be a GREAT consumer hit Q4 2011. Just look at that demo video, Nokia could launch a MeeGo device that will sell parallel to its WP-Phones, it is that good!

[PCB]

MeeGo january 2011: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9uCxsqhggho&feature=related

WP january 2011: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XiWDafvuaRw&NR=1

Same tech specs on the phones in the demos.

If you were Elop, which device would you bet on?

[khim]

If you were Elop, which device would you bet on?

Right answer: I'll fire anyone who'll present me this question. Then I'll talk with my engineers.

Why? Joel answered it better then me:
http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/fog0000000356.html

It's impossible to know what is better looking only on a sample build of a program. You must know what it is, who did it... and why.

For example if your software is designed around OpenGL and you your competitor does everything in software then your program will fly at ~100fps where competitor will tag along with ~30fps. But if you mess up and OpenGL driver will switch to software fallback then you can get ~3fps. Then you'll see something similar to that "demo".

It does not mean that if something is slow you can assume it'll be fast next week or two - sometimes the problems are fundamental and need years to resolve. Then it's too late and it's time to nix the project.

But to decide that looking just on some videos? Created by someone from unofficial build? Puhlease. This is beyond stupid.

[Boris]

Q4 2011 is gonna be a great qarter for Nokia.
---
Eh? Did you read what Tommi write? WP7 phone sales are dead in USA (in the rest of the world were dead anyway) after Skype purchase. There is no way that MSFT will ever make any success in smartphone world after it. Carriers rule, not manufacturers (except in the case of APPL). No carriers' subsidies, no sales of phones.

[Poifan]

I don't buy that Skype will somehow affect relationships with USA Carriers. Verizon actively advertises that you can use Skype on their phones. In the USA everyone buys their phones from the carriers and are locked into minimum voice and now capped data plans. They are happy to have you pay for voice and not use it, while running up your data charges over their network. http://phones.verizonwireless.com/skypemobile/

[custom research paper]

thanks for the posT) very interesting))

[elmo]

With the money from Apple ... Nokia can survive now.
But not in the hands of Elop.

People from Finland ... little shareholders of Nokia around the world ... please wake up ... Elop neeed to be kick out of Nokia ASAP

Tchuss

e_lm_70

ps: Go with MSFT and WP is not a mistake ... go only with it, is the mistake ! ... Nokia should reduce investment in meego and symbian, but keep them alive, give a strong message to the world ... and why not ... Nokia can also produce Android phone too ... it can't cost that much on doing it ... hackers build an Adroid for Nokia N900 in no time ... few engineers in Nokia can do the same with very limited cost ...

[Matthew Artero]

@khim

Your post seems to make sense but I don't have the tech knowledge to know if what you say is true and you lost your credibility with me with your ten eroneous arguments regarding my previous post.

For example, if the replacement rate is what you claim it is sales would have to be more than double what they are.

You don't even take the time to google your arguments to make sure they are correct before you decide to attack someone. So I just don't give weight to your comments if I don't see the proof.

I did respond to your ten erroneous arguments against my post at the post you made them.

[Magnus]

For me, a telling quote is "I was expecting a new iPhone for June". This innocent line tells me that you don't have a deep understanding of Apple, or a good method for acquiring that knowledge. This makes your analysis of all things Apple flawed, which is a pattern that has emerged here over the last year or so.

All the sites with credible track records for predictions on Apple's strategy were saying "no iPhone in June", and have been saying that for a least a month, if not longer. Everything that Apple did pointed to no new iPhone now, and I believe that the same applies to the "iPhone nano" that you pine for.

A new iPhone is probably slated for september. It might be an "iPhone nano" but I seriously doubt that.

Until you acquire a basic understanding of how Apple operates, and a working method of sifting through the reporting surrounding Apple, you will continue to miss your predictions regarding the iPhone.

/Magnus

[PCB]

If I am right, Nokia could make a profit of 4 billion USD Q4 2011:

6 million sold Meego Devices = 1 billion profit
8 million sold WP Devices = 1.6 billion profit
12 million sold Symbian 3 = 1.2 billion profit
80 million dumbphones = 0.8 billion profit

Navteq, NSN adds another 0.5 billion USD

Totalt = 5.1 billion USD in profit for Q4!!! Total company value today of löess then 23 billion USD.

I am forcasting a profit of no less then 15 billion USD for Nokia 2012 supported by WP-sales

[PCB]

Nokia could sell 100 million WP-phones 2012, another 10 million WP-"Ipads", 20 million MeeGo-Devices, 30 million Symbian 4 and 300 million dumbphones devices in 2012.

Profit after tax could very well exceed 25 billion USD for Nokia 2012 from mobile devices. That is less then the entire company value today.

Add royalties from Apple, profit from NSN, Navteq etc and Nokia could be looking at profits of some 30 billion USD 2012.

At a modest PE of 15, Nokias company value could exceed 450 billion USD in 2012-12-31 = Nokia becoming the worlds largest company.

[khim]

@Matthew Artero: For example, if the replacement rate is what you claim it is sales would have to be more than double what they are.

...if every phone is used by a single person and then immediately destroyed. Sorry, but this is not even close to the truth. For example all five phones I've bought in the last five years are still in use (by different people). This means among these people replacement rate is 12 months yet only five phones were sold to five people over five years. Second-hand phones are widely sold and bought (especially in third world) so I don't see where you've found your numbers.

So yes, I've missed one more mistake in your post:

11. "Market share" widely discussed and talked about is "marked share of new sales" so it have nothing at all to do with replacement rate whatsoever.

@Matthew Artero: You don't even take the time to google your arguments to make sure they are correct before you decide to attack someone.

Well, good advice, use it! Then you'll find out what REALLY happened:
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa5452/is_201007/ai_n56445041/

Jobs eventually returned home and got a technician job at the Atari Company, which paid him a mere $5 hourly wage. [...] Jobs, who was still working for the company, was approached by Atari founder, Nolan Kay Bushnell. Bushnell invited Jobs to develop the circuitry that would transform the popular game, Pong into something more innovative. Jobs was given four days to create this new game called Breakout. Knowing that this project was beyond his capabilities, he contacted his friend, Steve Wozniak to help him accomplish the task.

As with Apple itself Wozniak was the guy who did the work and Jobs was the one who sold it. Jobs was never a programmer, game or otherwise. He's IS genius of PR and he DOES know how to exploit other people and other companies very well indeed, but this is separate talent from the ability to invent something new.

@Matthew Artero: I did respond to your ten erroneous arguments against my post at the post you made them.

Well, yes, you wrote lots of incoherent nonsense like "I never claimed how much market share Apple will capture just that someone else lost it thanks to Apple". After that passage further discussion is utterly pointless because anything can happen because of the Apple and Jobs in the eyes of devoted fanboi. From invention of GUI to Libian war.

[facebook iframe templates]

Great post. I love getting into flow during work, and you're tips for achieving flow during the day and the week are well thought out.

[help with essay]

Good article! Clearly the line between user assistance and user interface is diminishing.

[@rodrigottr]

Tomi! You should read this theory about why Elop chose that timing. I think we can't understand him because we are using too much rationality when Elop is not driven by rationality but by fear!

I would say he chose that expensive timing (11 feb) because he is an insecure and anxious kind of person.

By the fast way he speaks and the yellow smile he is always uses as a mask he feels to me like a very anxious and insecure kind of person. Who is in a very stressing position and because of his lack of confidence is making mistakes over mistakes by acting impusively before the timing.

Look:

He has to leave symbian because symbian is expensive to develop and blablabla he knows that because the is a software guy and everybody else knows it.

He has 3 options:

Android, WP7 and Meego

Android would make Nokia lack some diferentiation. Also Google (with all arrogance google guys might have) didn't needed Nokia as Nokia would need Google. So as Nokia is big and powerfull player he knows Nokia can have a better agreement with someonelse than being side do side competing with asians. So is not an option. Remember he is a coward, he prefers to run than talking with the cocky guys of google.

WP7 is a nice option. Worst echosystem but has a good UI, he is familiar with MS and as without Nokia MS is nothing, he would have a better agreement than Google offers. The bad thing is that would take one year to produce something.

Meego is a the better option because does not pays royalties, has plenty of developers and very skilled people on developing Linux on the market. The QT by that moment problably had a better army of developers than WP7. The problem is it would take one year or a bit more to get something ready and linux is new for him. (tomi says he had a product ready for the Q1 but suppose he has not) remember, coward people fears what's new.

So? What a coward person chooses? The good, old, familiar and with his old pathernalistic buddy to cover him up with billions of dollars if necessary, with a familiar system.

But thats only good for MS! Meego would be a better option! Why he abandoned MeeGo? Why didn't he demanded QT compability cross MeeGo and WP7 at least??

Easy question. Because as he is as anxious, insecure, licking-balls, kissing-ass kind of person he would never say no to his beloved and protective (still) boss. That is why. He unconciously and toadly buys protection from his old boss doing everything that pleases him. Like abandoning QT, MeeGo, Ovi brand, Giving him the Ovi Maps. He feels more confortable having someone he trusts above him. (remember he never where a CEO before)

Why on 11 february? Easy. Because as an anxious and insecure person he are he knew he had to hurry to kill symbian or he would have to handle it later as Tomi said. That is why there were so many mistakes and so poor presentation. Hurry is the enemy of perfeccion, remember??

But if he is a coward, then why he wanted to be the CEO of Nokia on that situation? Because he knows and he denies to be a coward. He also has his vanity and his impulsivity to deny his fear pushes him to dangerous and crazy situations for proving to himself that he can handle them.

This also explains why he seems to be delusioning. He is just crazy and is being manipulated by his stupid old boss Steve Ballmer. If you whatch the interviews with Ballmer and Elop is easy to see how ballmer is calm and relaxed while Elop is trying to hide his fear with all that excitement. Ballmer is his secure savior man. Elop is the boy excited with his school play for the parents.

So, as Tomi said, he chosen what was better for his personal, not for the company. But he problably aint no Troian.

[Hoi Wan]

I don't buy the Skype argument either, same reason why iMessage will have little impact on carries. For the carriers it will be about price arbitage. Phone buyers will still buy their contracts with the minutes and their SMS packages as its all bundled and get their subsidised prices. (http://www.quora.com/iMessage/How-will-mobile-carriers-react-to-iMessage?q=iMessage - see Benedict Evans answer)

Secondly Skype's revenue model relies on telecom infrastructure. Skype to Skype calls are free, Skype to phone are not free and it is here where telecoms providers make money because they charge interconnect fees. So infact, it will have limited effect on carriers. If we factor in pre-paid customers, well, they are less likely to purchase high end smartphones, and even if they did, the revenue generated from buying a data package to be able to use Skype would likely be more than the loss in voice call minutes.

[Matthew Artero]

@khim

I see you still refuse to do the math using the actual numbers reported by the industry. You come across as one of those lazy people who can't stand to do the work. You also come across as one of those people that can't stand to be wrong which is another incentive for you not to do the correct math.

Simply take the total number of users and divide it into the number of months you claim the replacement rate is. Then multiply that by twelve to see what the annual sales must be to make your claim true. New subscribers are not to be included with the replacement rate.

All of your other reasons for attacking me are hog-wash. I simply said those were the stories I came across and yes those stories are still out there on the internet. If you find a story that contradicts one that I saw it doesn't prove which one is correct. You still attack without proof and for no reason as you have nothing to gain.

The main point of my entire post was to show that economies of scale no longer matter as much as they once did. You stated no opposition to the main point so all these little arguments of yours is just your attempt to make mountains out of mole-hills. Nothing you wrote has any bearing on the main discussion.

You have the right to believe what you want but it doesn't make you correct. I also have the right to believe what I want and I know my math is correct.

As long as you refuse to do the math for yourself you are going to continue to come across as an immature hot-head. You seem to have this strange need to fight. You see problems where none exist.

[@rodrigottr]

Hoi Wan

I am using skype and saving lots of money with it. It saves me 90% calling landlines and 50% calling other cellphones in Brazil. And I never used Skype to Skype calls because none of my friends use it yet. If they used, I would save even more! And voip calls use very little data. Much less then youtube videos. And if I am home or in work I don't even have to be with computer on to use it. Is excellent! So I guess that Skype can really save people money and the argument is good.

I also saved lots of money using an app called Whatsapp who works like the iMessage. Reduced my bill on 33%! Perhaps it is true also.