The real numbers for Nokia Q1 are hidden under China sugar-coating

I said in my Nokia Q1 analysis that Nokia numbers are suspect. I have now done my digging and tried to isolate the China numbers out from the total Q1 Nokia results. The reason China is an anomaly, is that Stephen Elop's announcement came Feb 11, after the Chinese New Year (gift-giving period) which Nokia already acknowledged last year for Q1, gives Nokia a big bounce in their smartphone sales in Q1.

So I used the average sales price of the smartphones and dumbphones, and made a rough estimate of how many of China's total Nokia mobile phones were smartphones and how many were dumbphones in both Q4 and Q1. I know this is not perfect but it gives a reasonably close approximation.

In Q1 China smartphones for Nokia grew 2.1 million units from 6.5 million to 8.6 million units.

That means that in Q1, the other 5 regions which did not have a 'China Christmas' period, where the Microsoft Muppet effect (Stephen Elop's silly timing of his Microsoft announcement one year before he has any phones to show) resulted in the following sales change

In Q1, the Rest of World Nokia sales in smartphones declined 6.0 million units from 21.6 million to 15.6 million units! This is a decline of 28% in just one quarter! This is now the world-record beating not just Motorola's famous post-Razr dive, and is worse decline than Palm's swan-dive after the iPhone arrived; this is even worse than Microsoft's Windows Mobile market share in 2010, after Microsoft bizarrely announced they will not provide a migration path for their developer community, into the new Phone 7 operating system.

So if you thought Nokia market share loss, in numbers which overall (including the China sugar-coating) of 14% decline in just 3 months was horrid, the reality was literally twice as bad!

We have heard from countless sources that Nokia Symbian phone sales have stalled. The retail channel has stopped Nokia Symbian sales, and are in effect boycotting Nokia sales now.

I am now ready to call Nokia's Q2 unit sales to be so low, that Nokia's market share will be below 15% for Q2. And no matter how well Apple does (some expect it to hit 18% again) or badly (the pessimists suggest Apple might do only 15% with the iPhone) and I think it'll be somewhere near 17% this Q2, I am ready to call it - Nokia has lost it. Apple is now the world's biggest smartphone manufacturer by market share! Congratulations Apple. And shame on you Nokia. Just a few months ago, Nokia was essentially twice as big as Apple in smartphone unit sales.

Pay attention. You are witnessing a world record of self-inflicted market share destruction by Nokia

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