The Ecosystem Myth and Stephen Elop's Alternate Universe at Nokia

Nokia CEO Stephen Elop wrote in his 'Burning Platforms' memo what he felt was wrong with Nokia. This is very reasonable-sounding stuff from Nokia's new CEO, to help explain why Nokia was so much in trouble. Lets be very clear, and first copy his exact words here. This is what Stephen Elop wrote about ecosystems and Nokia:

The battle of devices has now become a war of ecosystems, where ecosystems include not only the hardware and software of the device, but developers, applications, ecommerce, advertising, search, social applications, location-based services, unified communications and many other things. Our competitors aren’t taking our market share with devices; they are taking our market share with an entire ecosystem. This means we’re going to have to decide how we either build, catalyse or join an ecosystem.

Since that 'Burning Platforms' memo, we have heard on February 11, that Stephen Elop decided to end Nokia's own smartphone platform, Symbian, the heart of Nokia's current ecosystem. He also announced Nokia would not proceed into the previously-announced migration path, to the newest smartphone operating system, MeeGo. Instead, Stephen Elop announced that Nokia would replace Symbian with Microsoft's new Phone 7 (since renamed Windows Phone 7) operating system for smartphones. We should assume, that he felt WP7 is more suited for the 'war of ecosystems' against Apple's iPhone iOS ecoystem and that of Google's Android etc.

So it all sounds great. The bizarre thing that happened between then and now, is that Nokia developers have abandoned Nokia's platforms and even more alarmingly, are not embracing Microsoft's WP7 ecosystem instead. So lets examine the evidence. How do the three systems compare.

OPEN OR CLOSED

Nokia's original Symbian operating system is an open source operating system. It was built with the support of essentially every major mobile phone maker (Motorola. Sony, Ericsson, Samsung, Siemens, Panasonic etc). (Note, Apple's and RIM's and HP's and Microsoft's OS's are not open source)

Nokia's intended replacement operating system, MeeGo, was also an open source operating system, that Nokia developed with Intel.

The selected operating system Microsoft WP7 is not an open source operating system, it is very closely managed and controlled by Microsoft and Nokia would have no control in that evolution. To me this does not sound like Nokia changed to a better ecosystem. Maybe its just me. Maybe it gets better with the developers.

DEVELOPERS

Nokia's old' operating system, Symbian had a vast army of developers, using the system which is notorious for being very clumsy and difficult to develop for. But there was a large army, literally hundreds of thousands of developers worldwide who knew Symbian development. (note, Apple and Android have big developer communities but Symbian is far bigger than RIM, Microsoft, Palm, bada etc)

The new intended OS, MeeGo, was built on industry-standard tools based on Linux, for which there is ample available programming competence. There are hundreds of thousands of developers competent in Linux.

The selected Microsoft WP7 OS is not using industry standard tools and is not Linux based. Any developers would need to learn new skills. The total developer community is only measured in the tens of thousands, far less than either for Symbian or MeeGo.

APPS

Nokia's Symbian platform has been around for more than a decade and has a vast array of apps and services. Its Ovi store had become the worlds' second most used app store, generating downloads that only Apple's iPhone App Store could exceed. (Obviously Ovi store had more downloads than app stores of Android, RIM, Palm, bada, and Microsoft both OS's combined)

The intended MeeGo ecosystem would be using Nokia's Ovi store and could access Ovi apps and content, and if designed using Qt the common tool for Symbian and MeeGo, the apps would run on both platforms.

The selected Microsoft WP7 platform has the smallest number of apps and its app store is the least-used app store of the major internationally launched smartphone platforms.

MIGRATION PATH

Nokia's Symbian has traditionally had a migration path and Nokia even built a migration from Symbian to MeeGo via its developer tools called Qt. Thus any apps now developed for Symbian would also run on MeeGo. The developers of Symbian were particularly pleased with this extra effort that Nokia had invested in its ecosystem.

Nokia's intended OS, MeeGo would then benefit from the migration of most current Symbian content.

The selected Microsoft WP7 operating system did not have a migration path from Symbian. It did not have a migration path to or from MeeGo. It did not even have a migration path from the previous Microsoft OS, Windows Mobile. The previous Microsoft developers were particularly upset that Microsoft refused to support them in migration.

ANDROID COMPATIBILITY

The old Nokia operating system, Symbian, did not natively have any compatibility with Google's Android, but through the Nokia developer tools of Qt, any Qt developer could create apps for both platforms. In this way, recently, Symbian developers through Nokia's Qt, had acquired a partial compatibility with Android. (note no other ecosystem except Nokia's Symbian and MeeGo had this with Android, not Apple, not RIMm, not Palm and not either of Microsoft's OS platforms)

Nokia's intended new OS, MeeGo was built on Linux just like Android, and was an open source OS just like Android; thus most software modules etc would be compatible and in many cases actually interchangable. In any case, Qt the Nokia development tool allows app development for both platforms, simplifying greatly application development work.

Microsoft's WP7 is not compatible with Android. Its not even compatible with Microsof't's own previous OS, Windows Mobile.

MAP SUPPORT

Nokia's Symbian was built to include Nokia Ovi map support, the most used mobile phone mapping solution on the planet, and free to users. (Far bigger ecosystem than anyone else except Google)

Nokia's intended MeeGo operating system had full Ovi map support.

The selected Microsoft WP7 operating system did not have Ovi map support, but it would be added, which would remove a unique Nokia benefit, and gift it free of charge to Nokia's big rivals, Samsung, LG, HTC and SonyEricsson.

CARRIER SUPPORT

Nokia's Symbian was expanded through the Ovi store to provide full carrier app store support, with carrier-billing, the preferred billing and payment option by all app developers. Ovi had become the app store with by far the biggest carrier-billing reach, passing over 100 carriers/mobile operators who supported Ovi carrier billing. (By far the biggest on planet)

Nokia's intended MeeGo ecosystem had Ovi carrier support built in.

The selected Microsoft WP7 ecosystem had no carrier billing support, but it gained that through the Nokia partnership, thus all the work Nokia had done to build the widest reaching carrier ecosystem was now gifted to Microsoft.

ADVERTISING

Nokia set up its mobile advertising arm in 2008 and has expanded that considerably now through Navteq. (Nokia started this far before Apple and Google. RIM, Microsoft, bada, Palm etc have nothing to match)

The intended MeeGo OS would benefit from all Nokia advertising developments including Navteq.

The selected Microsoft WP7 OS did not have any meaningful advertising platform, an area where Microsoft was seen to severely lag Google, Apple and Nokia. Now Microsoft gains the Nokia ad platform compatibility in upcoming WP7 versions.

CARRIER INSIGHTS

The Symbian ecosystem has had from day 1, the full support of NTT DoCoMo as one of the founding members, the Japanese mobile operator/carrier giant, who started the whole mobile industry and invented the mobile internet and launched 3G, near field, WiFi mobile phones etc. (this is a Nokia trademark, no other manufacturer ecosystem except the two from Nokia have carriers/operators as partners)

The intended MeeGo ecosystem had from the beginning the support of China Mobile, the world's largest mobile operator, alone twice as big as all USA carriers/operators added together.

The selected Microsoft WP7 ecosystem is not supported by any carrier/operator.

END USERS

And then on end users. The Symbian platforms has passed 400 million units sold (vs about 200 million iOS and 100 million Android and 20 million all flavors of Microsoft). The Symbian system on Nokia Ovi app store has over 200 million active handsets (vs about 100 million iPhone and under 70 million Android and under 10 million Microsoft of all flavors). And Symbian Ovi store active user base has grown past 60 million. (this is by far the biggest on the planet, arguably the single biggest 'element' of any ecosystem, the end-users)

Nokia's intended MeeGo system had not launched by February 11, so it had no active users and no devices of any kind in the wild. However, the MeeGo OS would benefit form compatibility with Ovi, so for any developers counting the accessable market for MeeGo, they could in many cases count the full population of Ovi users.

But Microsoft's WP7, one year from launch, has not passed 10 million total devices sold. It does not have 10 million active users. And none of the past Microsoft or Nokia/Ovi users would be compatible with the current WP7 version.

LANGUAGE SUPPORT

Nokia's older Symbian and the Ovi store had developers in most countries and especially the Ovi store was supporting the most languages of any app store. (by far biggest of any ecosystem)

The new intended MeeGo OS with Ovi would have the same international language support as Symbian and Ovi.

The selected Microsoft WP7 OS has the least international langauge support, is essentially only a USA based ecosystem.

MONEY

And on Symbian and Ovi Nokia had launched Nokia Money in 2009. While not specific to Symbian or Ovi, the two were compatible with Nokia Money. Nokia furthermore committed in 2010, before Stephen Elop was hired, that all Nokia smartphones (ie on Symbian) from 2011 would have 'near field' technology which is vital for mobile wallet applications, as developed first by Symbian partner NTT DoCoMo in Japan. (note Google is now doing money integration. RIM just started near field. Apple might have NFC support in the next iPhone. No money or wallets on Palm or any Microsoft OS ecosystems)

Nokia's MeeGo was set to be all NFC enabled, by Nokia plans prior to Stephen Elop.

Instead, Elop selected Microsoft WP7 which does not have NFC handsets nor NFC support currently. Elop even cancelled many early Nokia NFC smartphones.

WHAT HAS ELOP DONE

He talked the talk. He did not walk the walk. Stephen Elop inherited what was by all accounts the world's most open and most wide-reaching ecosystem. He said an ecosystem must be more than devices. He said it needs apps, developers, maps, money, advertising, etc.

If your argument is that the ecosystem is the decisive factor for winning in mobile in this decade, as Stephen Elop seems to suggest, and many in the mobile industry believe; then look at what he did.

I am not talking which OS has the best user interface or which OS is the easiest to use, or which OS is the cheapest to make or which OS has the most handsets. If we consider only the ecosystem, then consider the following:

Symbian has more apps than WP7. Symbian has more developers than WP7. Symbian has more users than WP7. Symbian was open source which WP7 was not. Symbian had carrier billing support that WP7 didn't. Symbian had an actual carrier onboard to support its evolution that WP7 didn't. Symbian was co-developed not developed by a monopoly like WP7. Symbian offered a migration path which WP7 didn't. Symbian even had somewhat a level of compatibility with Android (via Qt) which WP7 didn't. And Symbian with Ovi had the biggest language footprint and biggest Ovi maps support.

That, what was arguably Nokia's first attempt at an ecosystem, call it Nokia's prototype, was then evolved into MeeGo, where the development was with Intel, on the open source platform built on Linux (something Microsoft didn't have) and where every benefit included the above, or added even more ecosystem thinking that Microsoft didn't have, including obviously most of all, a friendly migration path from Symbian, and Linux software module compatibility with Android (again, something WP7 didn't have).

If Stephen Elop says its a war of ecosystems, he owned the world's best ecosystem now. I am not saying that Symbian was the easiest to develop to (Android and iPhone are far easier) but as a whole, open source, carrier billing, languages etc, Symbian was the best ecosystem.

And let me make one USA-specific comment here. I know American developers mostly didn't even know Symbian was alive anymore haha. But remember, only 7% of the planet's mobile phone accounts are in North America. That part of the world where 93% of the planet lives, the other 5 inhabited continents - Nokia is still today the biggest OS platform, Ovi is by far the biggest app store, on all those continents. In China, in India, in Brazil, in Russia, in Indonesia etc, its not the iPhone App Store ecosystem. Try to find IPhones in India for example (where Blackberries outnumber iPhones by 10 to 1). Until Stephen Elop annouced the death of Symbian on February 11, the best app store and smartphone OS by number of users, and number of apps - in al those huge markets - was Nokia's Symbian and Ovi. Do not make the mistake of thinking what has happened in the USA will happen elsewhere. As Ovi had focused on language support and carrier billing - it was a far more sustainable ecosystem in especially the non-English speaking countries like China, Russia, Brazil etc etc etc.

THE SURRENDER-MONKEY

Stephen Elop tossed all that aside. He talked the talk that its a war of ecosystems. Did he walk the walk? No. He had the biggest army in that war, and one that was being prepared for the very cutting edge of everything anyone could ask for in ecosystems, from open to Linux to compatibility to migration path. Stephen Elop tossed it away, and replaced it with the weakest army, WP7. Did he select MeeGo, which is everything Symbian was, except far easier for developers, and even more open and even more standardized with the industry? In fact, MeeGo is by far the most open platform of any smartphone OS and ecosystems counting all the new ones today.

No. Stephen Elop wanted to surrender in the war. He selected the most restrictive, most limited, least successful, most anti-developer, most anti-carrier ecosystem out there. In Microsoft WP7, when considered as an ecosystem, Nokia was going backwards, and all benefits of the Microsoft-Nokia partnership would indeed help build a better ecoystem but not for Nokia. All gains would go to Microsoft, using Nokia's assets and years of work, to fast-track the Microsoft OS and ecosystem to be more viable. This was not a decision made in the best interests of Nokia. Not if ecoystem is the decision criterion. The benefaciciary of Elop's decision, if thinking ecosystems was all Microsoft. That is why we have to consider Stephen Elop the Microsoft Muppet. He is being controlled by his former boss Steve Ballmer, the Microsoft Muppet Master.

If you think ecosystems, Nokia has thrown away the strongest current platform, and instead of replacing it with an even better one, Nokia has instead selected the weakest ecosystem out there. I think this is evidence of Stephen Elop's incompetence as a Nokia CEO and is another reason why he needs to be fired now, while it is still possible to reverse that decision, and save what is left of Nokia's decade-long work into building an open source based true multiparty ecosystem.

There is more to this saga. The time for Nokia is running out. I will return with the real crisis of the moment in the next edition of this study into the biggest management failure of the mobile telecoms industry, as we count down to the firing of Stephen Elop, CEO of Nokia.

Comments

[Visitant]

"The selected Microsoft WP7 operating system did not have Ovi map support, but it would be added, which would remove a unique Nokia benefit, and gift it free of charge to Nokia's big rivals, Samsung, LG, HTC and SonyEricsson."

I was under the impression that Ovi maps would remain exclusive to Nokia in the transition to WP7, giving Nokia a point of differentiation among WP7 devices. If not, then I agree, a very stupid thing for Elop to do.

[PhoneBoy]

Tomi, you are spot on as usual. I'm beginning to think I could have done a better job running Nokia :)

I do wonder, why hasn't Stephen Elop been fired by Nokia's board yet? Is there yet more to this sordid, sorry tale?

[Timothy Meade (tmztmobile)]

Yes, totally yes. But you also reminded me of something, not only will Qt run on Android, on 2.3/3.0 it could theoretically be faster then the Android applications and Dalvik. Also, Ovi could have launched on Android as well with carrier support, supporting the same applications compiled against the Qt 4 ABI as both Android native apks and debs for MeeGo, as well as whatever package format Symbian uses (with a recompile) as a transition. Ovi could have been a third-party market like Adobe's on Android, but the primarily supported channel for certain carriers (especially ones that want more control of content in the market for political or security reasons). Nokia can easily be their hardware and software partner. By the way, Open Handset Alliance included carriers and manufacturers in the Android ecosystem, but it's not clear from a public perspective what they actually do to support Android.

[Michael Scharf]

Tomi: You said, "He had the biggest army in that war, and one that was being prepared for the very cutting edge of everything anyone could ask for in ecosystems, from open to Linux to compatibility to migration path. Stephen Elop tossed it away, and replaced it with the weakest army, WP7."

While I agree with you, Elop would not. It would appear that he believes that the biggest army belongs to Microsoft, and that they have enough market power to buy their way into the market.

Unfortunately, with the possible exception of Apple, the power in this market still resides with the carriers. I just don't see US, European, or Asian carriers want to help Microsoft out in any way. In the US, we call this an EPIC FAIL!

[Vikram]

This is crazy talk - thinking that Symbian or MeeGo could have done anything going forward for Nokia is exactly the reason why Nokia is in the trouble they are in.

[Chris]

Tomi I often disagree with you about the greatness of Symbian in the respect that you see little wrong with it, where as I haven't gotten along with it for over 3 years now. I can't bring myself into using any Symbian devices.

The points you make about Symbian's successes, however are very true and what is happening to the Ovi Store is just plain sad. It is indeed changing a working, strong army into a handful of rookies who've never been out to fight before.

Have you thought of the possibility that history will show the WP7 deal to be simply a "placeholder" OS or temporary OS until MeeGo gets going. Or do you think that Nokia will be run to the ground before anything like that can happen?

[viulian]

Agreed completely with the post. Let's not forget that on Microsoft store / Android store allow merchants from a small number of selected countries, while on Ovi most of them were allowed.

[HCE]

While I agree with you that Nokia's strategy is harebrained, I don't think it is right to blame all of this on Elop. The decision to dump Symbian and Meego and go with a third party OS was probably made by Nokia's board before Elop was hired - perhaps, the two homegrown operating systems were in a lot worse shape than what you make them out to be. I am pretty sure that Elop is responsible for the decision to move to Windows Phone but even here, I don't think he would have been able to McKenna such a sweeping change without full buy-in from the board. I think it Is a little unfair to make Elop the scapegoat here - the board is probably equally responsible - if not more so.

- HCE

[xizzhu]

Just add one more tip to Android compatibility, Alien Dalvik was announced earlier by 3rd developers to bring Android apps to Maemo / MeeGo.

Indeed, I believe an open Linux based OS is the key for Nokia. Just think about it, how many Maemo devices have ever been sold, and how active that community is? In case you don't know, the community even released some major software updates! Not to mention the great weapon of Qt ;)

[Ashwin]

Tomi,

The points you make are valid. But they are crying about spilt milk. Whether Elop screwed up and spilt the milk or not, is not relevant. Let's accept the situation as it stands now. What would you recommend Nokia do to make the best of this situation? What would make the WPx ecosystem become bigger?

[Randall Arnold]

Tomi, one caveat: Visual Studio developers will have little or no trouble adding WP7 development to their skillset... and VS is a standard dev tool. Overall, though, I sadly agree with your assessment.

[A Reader]

Tomi, great post as ever. If only everything in life was as simple.

To play devil's advocate for a second - if the Nokia ecosystem is/ was as great as you mention and use facts to powerfully back up why did none of the newer handset manufacturers "jump in"? Surely it would have made more sense to go this route and join symbian rather than bet all on a company/ OS with no previous experience I.e google and android. Would love to read your thoughts on this.

[MIP]

This topic is directly related to what I posted the other day in response to one of your earlier posts:

http://www.mobileinfoplanet.com/2011/06/05/was-stephen-elop-right-to-go-with-wp7/

I.e. though I think that 'ecosystems' is something that will hopefully disappear in the future, or lose relevance or turn into something less restricted at least, there is little argument that MeeGo would have been the most open platform of them all - I would love to see what the open-source community could do with MeeGo if given half the chance!

[Yuri]

The biggest irony in it all is that Microsoft decided to sabotage Windows Phone half a year before Nokia will even get a shot at its new strategy.

They announced that the touch optimized UI of Windows 8, their tablet OS, will be based on anew HTML 5-based framework, instead of the Silverlight-based one, already developed for Windows Phone.

It is not enough that Windows Phone is doing very bad on the market, that all of its current device makers are cold to the OS, and that the channel is choking WP7 too, but now this. No continuity of Windows Phone applications to Windows 8. Something that you get almost for free with Android and iOS.

Microsoft has done it again - after discontinuing Windows Mobile, now they do the same for Windows Phone. Simply unbelievable.
If I were a .NET / Silverlight developer I would be running screaming.

Microsoft, the stalwart of closed-source software is showing everybody why open-source is the only future-safe choice. And Nokia gave up its first-class open-source ecosystem for that. Truly ironic.

[ozozdil]

Nokia will not be using the standard wp7 os , they will add their own whereas other manufacturers can't.

Abandoning meego was wrong but killing symbian and choosing wp7 over android was the right decison.

[hari]

hi tomi - do you really think Nokia still had a chance to fight apple & google wiht symbian/meego... your post on E7 explains how bad symbian is.. & Meego never saw the light... it is way too far before Meego can even pose any challenge but by the time google would rule the industry...

i dont think Elop's decision is wrong.. he had no choice but to dump symbian & meego & bring nokia to profitablilty & competence soon... he had a choice of android or MS.. with MS i see there is a chance of fighting back. as WP7 user i like the OS.. it is futuristic & provides good integration to Office & Gaming.. it is far better than Symbian .. I dont know if it is better than Maemo or Meego but from a Nokia Shareholder standpoint - they cant wait for ever for Meego to get acceptance & start making profits.. i like your posts as always you give great insights but this post i would have to disagree to an extent..

Symbian was the best app store, symbian was the most # of used smartphones but now mindshare &marketshare of symbian is eroding..

[Dan Thornton]

Looking purely at the ecosystem debate and the app/developer side of Symbian and WP7, then I'd be supportive of Elop moving to WP7.

Good Symbian developers have been able to command a premium for the last few years, due to the intricacies of the platform and device compatibility, which is a problem when you can throw a stick and hit someone who develops iPhone/Android apps. And while that has paid off in terms of the download numbers, it's as much down to a lack of competition as anything else when it comes to smartphone Symbian downloads.

Whereas WP7 allows non-mobile developers to move from web to phone pretty quickly. And if the smartphone app ecosystem is what matters, and you've got problems with your share of developer interest, making it incredibly easy and cheap is far better than continuing with a platform which is perceived rightly or wrongly as a bit different.

WP8 using HTML5 is a bit of a problem, but there's an ever-increasing number of HTML5 developers - it's not as huge a leap to go from HTML5 sites, HTML5 apps for iPad etc, to HTML5 for WP8 as it is to go from building a website to building a Symbian app.

I'm a huge fan of open source philosophy and products, but I don't think that's critical in the business decision - sometimes open source works fantastically well, and sometimes it doesn't.

And I think you're neglecting two key points in favour of Microsoft - their success with the Xbox games platform, which not only has been successful in capturing users and brining them online with a robust platform, but is also heavily and increasingly integrated into WP7/WP8, and their approach with Kinect, which has also been really successful and has shown an open approach to dealing with hackers and outside developers.

I haven't really played around with MeeGo, but it seems like it still has a chance of success, alongside Web OS as the other dark horse, so we'll see how it goes, but given the history I've had with several Nokia handsets and producing apps on the 5 major platforms, I'm personally not sad to see the back of Symbian and Maemo.

And don't forget that the long tail of developers are also phone users. If the best user experience is on an iPhone, Android or WP7 phone, and those are what all the staff use on a daily basis - does it make sense that they'll spend time and effort developing for Symbian except at a premium?

And although app downloads and market share may be huge for Nokia outside of the Western world, inside the app ecosystem, which application purchasers and advertisers drive the most profit? I don't think I've seen a geographical breakdown of both app purchasing habits + advertiser spend by territory, but that's also an issue.

[DS]

I'm affraid the high hopes for OSS devs to innovate on OS layer would not materialize.

Mameo have been around for years and while N900 is touted developers dream, while oss devs have had mountains of existing quality linux application code to cherrypick from, no killer apps that would put shame on IPhone emerged.

Delivering good experience and functionality apparently requires focused, synergic developement of programmers, UI designer, graphicians, etc. (read: commercialy managed).
And Gnu/Linux just hasn't delivered as a good commercial developer ecosystem (no stable api, spoty documentation, useless debugging). As much as I love it, love the opennes, ability to tinker, you'll find plenty of evidence MS has much better track record in that regard.

[Poifan]

I think this is a very narrow view of ecosystem, it not just about phones. Apple and Google are both creating integrated ecosystems of devices (Phones, PCs, Tablets, STBs, and Game Systems) and content (Apps, Music, Video, Photos, Video Conferencing, and Game Networks). All of this is designed to working seamlessly across devices. The ecosystem is the platform, not the devices. Nokia, RIM, and HP are getting boxed out of these ecosystems. Microsoft is attempting a 3rd ecosystem built around Windows 7/8, Xbox, WP7, Bing, Zune, and their Live services like Skydrive. Nokia just doesn't have the reach to compete in all these spaces as shown with Ovi. It's better to partner and concentrate on what they do best.

[Louis]

Tomi, this whole post strikes me as slightly kooky:

(1) There are some seeming technical howlers, like Android software (even at the kernel level) just running on MeeGo or Visual Studio not being a standard development tool. (One would guess that Visual Studio is the single most popular development environment.)

(2) You blogged early this year that Symbian had stalled out in 2010, and Nokia had just been stuffing the channel to make it seem like it still had any momentum. Plus (somebody else pointed out) that your own recent review of Nokia's latest smartphone was that it was an unusable mess.

(3) The Bloomberg article on Nokia basically tells us MeeGo didn't happen.

(4) Here's the biggest problem with what you write: by "ecosystem" Elop really seems to mean "be competitive with the iPhone and Android". It would have been unsurprising to him that by 2012---when Nokia could realistically make a change---that to be considered at all a platform would need: (a) a usable attractive interface; (b) a big app developer community that includes the US; (c) a "cloud" story for search, email, backup, etc. (Notice that Android has been converging to the iPhone on (a) and Apple recently went big with (c)).

Now, I don't really think it will work out, but MS---unlike Nokia---actually has a story in all three areas. WP7 is pretty nice looking, but there's also Bing and Xbox that MS brings in. Visual Studio is probably the most well-known development environment, period.

So Elop chose "catalyze" from his list of options. Plus, probably this is all that was available to a floundering company: Apple is a closed system and Google has a lot of low-margin OEMs. Microsoft might have been a bad option, but it seems like the only one.