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« Final Numbers for Q1 in Smartphones Bloodbath year 2: Electric Boogaloo | Main | Timing? Why did Stephen Elop announce Microsoft in February when first phones take a year more? »

June 02, 2011



The sad thing is that I have to agree with your analysis. A world market leader destroyed by incapable management. It started with OPK, but Elop's speed in crashing the company takes my breath away.

Looks like a buy out by M$ is the only thing that can can provide some survival of some parts of Nokia. Horrible.

Tomas - University Place, WA

A sad commentary, Tomi.

You indeed seem now to have been overly optimistic when you were commenting in February.

What I don't understand, as a simple retired telco engineer, is why Elop seems to be galloping so hard toward the destruction of Nokia.

Despite how we as employees would complain about how dumb our "C-level" bosses were, we really did know that they actually weren't.

That almost leaves me with only a horrible sounding question: Which competitor does Elop actually work for?

I wish Nokia luck, but I'm afraid it may already be too late to save the company. :o(


sexy adult costume

Nokia is falling down. let's hope it will find it way to breakt the setback.


Thank you Tommi for analysis. I twitted you (and I am sure many others) to write about this complete Armaggedon scenario for Nokia. Sad, really sad :-(.

Cheers from Serbia, from former great Nokia lover, who ditched Nokia Symbian phone (like many in my country) for Android after whole this destruction.


NOK is betting all their chips on the MSFT card that has never yet paid off for anyone in the mobile space. However, MSFT is motivated and will fight tooth-and-nail to make the thing succeed, marshaling their considerable resources to the task. So there will be no crash-and-burn in just a few months occurring. Anything that happens will take years to play out. Consider, a $5B investment lets you give 50 million people each a free $100 WP7 phone. That's quite an installed base and an investment size within the range that I'm sure NOK and MSFT are willing to spend on mobile.


Bloomberg covers all of this, including the best graf:

Before the first interview, Elop drew out what he knew about the plans for MeeGo on a whiteboard, with a different color marker for the products being developed, their target date for introduction, and the current levels of bugs in each product. Soon the whiteboard was filled with color, and the news was not good: At its current pace, Nokia was on track to introduce only three MeeGo-driven models before 2014-far too slow to keep the company in the game. Elop tried to call Oistämö, but his phone battery was dead. "He must have been trying an Android phone that day," says Elop. When they finally spoke late on Jan. 4, "It was truly an oh-s--t moment-and really, really painful to realize where we were," says Oistämö. Months later, Oistämö still struggles to hold back tears. "MeeGo had been the collective hope of the company," he says, "and we'd come to the conclusion that the emperor had no clothes. It's not a nice thing."


Molly Wood might object, but Ahonen should change the name of his blog to "Tomi Rants." His posts lately drone on and on and on but repeat the same dubious talking points.
- The US is FAR FAR FAR behind the rest of the world in anything and everything to do mobile (even though our carriers are putting up LTE networks and Europe's carriers are still working out license issues)
- The 2007 iPhone sucked but was transformational because Americans are stupid
- Symbian is the best OS ever, if only the American press were smart enough to say so, Nokia would be flying high right now.
- Elop is an idiot/delusional, because he's American (OK, Canadian, but close enough).

We get that you don't like Elop or Nokia's new strategy. However, they have taken their gamble, and we'll see how well it works or doesn't work over the coming months. Anyway, what has that to do with the rest of the industry? Android seems to be eating everyone's lunch right now, except for Apple's niche. Heck, Android is even #1 in Europe now. We all know Korea and Japan are miles ahead of the rest of us when it comes to the technical matters. However, for all the faults in the US infrastructure, dominance in the American market (or at least a major presence) is still a key for global relevance for technological goods. That's why all the big players want in, and why Nokia made a big mistake in largely abandoning the US market in the 2000s.


Who are stupid? Americans or the Finns? heheheh

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi cBeam, Tomas, sexy, Boris, SVE and EM

cBeam - yes, totally a sad situation. Nokia was in crisis in the summer of 2010 and OPK was clearly the wrong guy to run the company the past few years. The Nokia Board selected a new, unknown CEO from the outside, and that is always a risk. The early signs were good, Nokia smartphones for Q1 were doing a strong recovery in ASP and profits and consumer appeal, but then the wheels came off in February. Now its clear that Nokia hired the wrong CEO and the situation today is far worse than it was in 2010.. And unless the Board fires Elop, there won't be a Nokia left to the end of 2011..

Tomas - yes, sad. And yeah, I was trying to project the best-case scenario in February, thinking, the new CEO has to be good at managing this all, he does come from the outside and he must have had to run difficult integration projects often in the past.. but its proving worse than I thought. Sad.

And on Elop, yes, and consider for all the damage he's managed to do for the Nokia brands, now his former employer torpedoed any chances for Microsoft WP7, as they bought Skype, the brand the carriers/operators hate the most. There was an instant total boycott of Microsoft based phones, already proven by surveys of retail shops by PC Magazine and by the San Francisco Chronicle. Now the Elop strategy is truly dead and buried. Whether Nokia is too, depends only on whether Elop is allowed to stay onboard to steer this ship straight at the iceberg

sexy - yeah. Lets hope but it looks bad.

Boris - thanks! And yeah, we see more and more of that, it seems the 'natural' home for most loyal Nokia Symbian users is Android..

SVE - I would have agreed with you a couple of months ago. I wrote in my early (February) analysis of the potential, that Microsoft is indeed a powerhouse and if they were focused, they could join Nokia to defeat Apple even. That is not happening (Since the Nokia 'strategic' partnership, Microsoft has since for example announced a RIM strategic partnership etc. They are all over the place, like Steve Ballmer himself, not focusing). But that scenario was killed by Microsoft when it bought Skype (perhaps a good acquisition for MS on the whole, but certainly a death-nail to Microsoft's smartphone aspirations).

EM - thanks, yeah I spotted the Business Week/Bloomberg story and mentioned it on TW. Good background in it, some of the comments in it by Elop etc seem a bit self-serving haha, but yeah, very good inside piece that everyone interested in Nokia should read.

Thank you all, please keep comments coming, I will return with more replies here

Tomi Ahonen :-)

konut projeleri

So how did they perform in the market? Over the first three months after the service was launched, they achieved a total of 40 bets. Not 40 million bets or 40 thousand bets. 40 bets. The total value of the betting was 26 Euros. Again, not 26 thousand or 26 million.

traverten eskitme

That's quite an installed base and an investment size within the range that I'm sure NOK and MSFT are willing to spend on mobile

beats by dre store

quite an installed base and an investment size within the range that I'm sure NOK and MSFT are willing to spend on mobile


Update, but this company is headed for serious financial trouble. Not just high-end smartphone trouble. But full product line, money loosing trouble.

akdeniz evden eve naklıyat

pretty nice site to be interesting


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Satılık Evler

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