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May 13, 2011



Read the headlines this week about the forecast - and thought this was, obviously, only marketing bullshit to get some headlines.
Didn't look at it closely enough to realize that the numbers for now were as laughable as the predictions for 2013 or 2015 - so thanks for pointing that out. Looking at the chart in a CNET article (, it's really obvious that something is wrong there!
Concerning reasons for the forecast: I'm not sure there's anything beyond Pyramid feeling that the partnership of Microsoft and Nokia is a good thing. But then that is the impression I get with all of the long-term forecasts in this sector: in the end, whether you go by gut feeling, just project past trends into the future, or do whatever else, you really can't predict market shares for 2015 in mobile. If the analyst companies admitted that, they would actually look a lot more trustworthy.


I just thought a bit about what Windows Phone 7 overtaking Android in 2013 would mean. There's only one way in which this could happen - and that is if Nokia more-or-less retains its current market share until their Windows devices come out and when they do, all of Nokia's customers switch. Wow, that's beyond bizarre!

Nokia first Windows-based phone won't be out until the end of the year (if they're lucky). More realistically, it will probably come out sometime early next year. Regardless of when the first one comes out, Windows-based phones are not likely to constitute a majority of Nokia's lineup until the latter half of 2012 and the lineup will not be 100-percent Windows until sometime in 2013.

Even in the most optimistic scenario, I don't see Microsoft's market share crossing 15 percent until mid 2013 - and then according to Pyramid, they strap on the afterburners and double their market share in 6 months!! Wonder what that analyst was smoking :-)



About a month before the launch of Windows Phone 7, Microsoft held an iPhone funeral procession in Redmond.

Did we know that iPhone was dead?

These people are [--CENSORED--]!

Frank Daley

Does the Pyramid Research report disclose what organization(s) funded the report?

Given that Pyramid Research will have realized the damage to its reputation by publishing such fantasty, the external funding must have been very significant.


It took Android to 2.5 years to get from 0 to 100k activations. It's possible for the same thing to happen with WP7. It has Microsofts' billions of dollars behind it, MS has the best developer support ecosystem and most importantly MS has by far the best development tools. Just watch Google IO 2011 videos and you'll see how much developers are complaining about Eclipse and the lack of device emulators.


Some time ago, I did need to buy a good car for my firm but I did not earn enough money and couldn't order something. Thank goodness my colleague proposed to get the credit loans at reliable bank. Therefore, I acted that and was happy with my auto loan.


> MS has the best developer support ecosystem

Supposing that this was true (let's notice that "it's much to suppose"), they would not need it, their competition was already dead and buried in September if we believe Microsoft:

Troed Sångberg


Agree. I haven't finalized my own opinion on possible WP7 success yet. They key unknown is how well they'll transfer away from being "the business option" to instead capture the Xbox Live crowd on mobile (incl. developers). So far my projections with regards to RIM based on "developers only have bandwidth enough for two platforms"-thinking have panned out.

With that said, while I wouldn't be anywhere near as harsh as Tomi, if the already known data is wrong it's wrong.

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Very nice and impressive article you have posted. Its very helpful, i have read and bookmark this site and will recommend it to more other peoples.


Tomi, you are right but big dogs don't bark at puppies.

Jeanine Fleming

nice post

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I will play it by ear

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It's always nice when you can not only be informed, but also entertained! I'm sure you had fun writing this article.

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Nice post. I learn one thing on totally different blogs everyday. It is going to always be stimulating to read content from other writers and apply a bit something from their blog

Tomi T Ahonen

Thank you everybody!

I am overly swamped at this point in the consulting season, madly dashing around the world with conferences and clients. I will come back and respond to comments but it will probably be quite a while until I get that chance. Thank you for very nice words everybody and yeah, this is one that really ruins Pyramid's reputation.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Don McLean

Tomi, being inside the industry for so long, you should've known better that, well, analytics is not the only job which analysts have at their hands nowadays. As this case clearly demonstrated.


You might consider posting links to other analyst forecasts - the result makes you appear as objective as we all know you are.


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This is a good blog. Keep up all the work. I too love blogging and expressing my opinions.

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Thank you for this article. That's all I can say. You most definitely have made this blog into something special. You clearly know what you are doing, you've covered so many bases.Thanks!

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