Final Numbers for Q1 in Smartphones Bloodbath year 2: Electric Boogaloo

It took a while, but we finally have the numbers for all 4 major analyst houses (Gartner, IDC, Canalys and Strategy Analytics). I did as I always do, I calculated the average of their totals, to find the quarterly total smartphone sales - which came to 101.2 million, and we saw a growth of 2% in smartphone sales in the first quarter of 2011 from the fourth quarter (Christmas-quarter) of 2010.

BY MANUFACTURER

This is how I report (or when numbers not officially given, am doing my official estimate) of the top 10 biggest smartphone brands by manufacturer in Q1 of 2011:

Rank . . Brand . . . . . . . Millions sold . . . . . . Market Share Q1 . . . . (market share Q4)

1 . . . . . Nokia . . . . . . . 24.2 million . . . . . . . 24% . . . . . . . . . . . . . (29%)
2 . . . . . Apple . . . . . . . 18.4 million . . . . . . . 18% . . . . . . . . . . . . . (16%)
3 . . . . . RIM . . . . . . . . 14.5 million . . . . . . .  14% . . . . . . . . . . . . . (14%)
4 . . . . . Samsung . . . .  12.6 million . . . . . . . 13% . . . . . . . . . . . . . (11%)
5 . . . . . HTC . . . . . . . . . 9.7 million . . . . . . . 10% . . . . . . . . . . . . . (  9%)
6 . . . . . SonyEricsson . . 4.9 million . . . . . . . . 5% . . . . . . . . . . . . . (  5%)
7 . . . . . LG . . . . . . . . . . 4.7 million . . . . . . . . 5% . . . . . . . . . . . . . (  4%)
8 . . . . . Motorola . . . . . . 4.1 million . . . . . . . . 4% . . . . . . . . . . . . . (  5%)
9 . . . . . ZTE . . . . . . . . .  2.2 million . . . . . . . . 2% . . . . . . . . . . . . . (  2%)
10 . . . . Sharp . . . . . . . . 1.8 million . . . . . . . . 2% . . . . . . . . . . . . . (  2%)

The big movers are Nokia in crash-dive, lost 5 market share points in just one quarter, and Samsung and Apple who both picked up two market share points in the quarter. HTC, LG and ZTE are also growing, Motorola is slipping back further into the pack. RIM, SonyEricsson and Sharp are roughly holding station.

BY OPERATING SYSTEM

I also did some forced math to try to squeeze as close as possible the operating system numbers that are reported, to the above total number and as usual, this is the more difficult bit, but this should be close. (Please remember, I only count smartphones, not tablet PCs or other devices that might run on say iOS or Android etc) The market shares by operating system as I see it for Q1 are:

Rank . . . Operating System . . Market Share Q1 . . . . . (was market share Q4)

1 . . . . . . Android . . . . . . . . . . 35%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . (30%)
2 . . . . . . Symbian . . . . . . . . . 25% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (32%)
3 . . . . . . iOS . . . . . . . . . . . .  18% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (16%)
4 . . . . . . Blackberry . . . . . . .  14% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (14%)
5 . . . . . . bada . . . . . . . . . . . .  3% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (  3%)
6 . . . . . . Windows Mobile . . . . 2% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (  2%)
7 . . . . . . Phone 7 . . . . . . . . . . 2% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (  2%)
Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  1% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (  1%)

First, remember that Symbian also still has Japanese makers who support it in addition to Nokia (that is why the percentage here bigger than in the above). Also very interesting race among the small operating systems is hidden in the percentages. Several sources say bada sold 3.5 million (thus almost 4% when rounding off), compared to about 2 milllion for old Windows Mobile and 1.6 million for new Phone 7. So even in Q1, Microsoft's newest operating system is being beaten even by its older sibling, and Samsung's new OS outsells all Microsoft Phone 7 partners combined, by more than 2 to 1.

A number we should look out for. Samsung has not given a split of bada vs Android vs Microsoft handsets, but if those analyst numbers and quoted numbers are roughly right, we should have been at about 8.8 million cumulative bada shipments by end of Q1, so sometime now during Q2, we should pass 10 million cumulative bada devices. Expect that kind of noise soon from your Samsung team..

And in the Nokia-watch.. How is my model compared to Nokia reality. When I did my 'Nokia premium smartphone customer give-away sweepstakes' blog, I projected the following (which we can now compare to actuals for Q1)

TOMI PROJECTION IN FEBRUARY FOR NOKIA MARKET SHARE CRASH IN 2011

Quarter . . . Market Share . . . Unit Sales . . . .  ASP . . . . . Total Revenues of Smartphones
Q1 2011 . . 28% . . . . . . . . . .  29 M . . . . . . . . 146 Euro . . 4.3B Euro
Q2 2011 . . 21% . . . . . . . . . .  25 M . . . . . . . . 136 Euro . . 3.3B Euro
Q3 2011 . . 16% . . . . . . . . . .  21 M . . . . . . . . 126 Euro . . 2.6B Euro
Q4 2011. .  12% . . . . . . . . . .  17 M . . . . . . . . 116 Euro . . 2.0B Euro

I said clearly in my blog that it was my 'best case' scenario, as there was plenty of Nokia doom and gloom at the time, following the Stephen Elop stunning Microsoft announcement of February 11 (including my previous analysis of the decision and how it was made). But there were several competent analysts who came to the blog who said they felt I was being too harsh on Nokia, that while it would be bad, it wouldn't be quite that bad. Well, now we have the very first evaluation of those numbers. And yes, it is worse. I had expected Q1 best case to be and what it actually was:

COMPARISON NOKIA Q1 AHONEN PROJECTION VS REALITY

My projection Q1 . . 28% . . . . . . . . . .  29 M . . . . . . . . 146 Euro . . 4.3B Euro
Nokia actuals Q1 . . 24% . . . . . . . . . .  24 M . . . . . . . . 147 Euro . . 3.6B Euro

So Nokia is already 4 market share points below what I projected, 5 million unit sales below what I projected. It is almost spot-on on the average sales price drop as I predicted, thus total smartphone revenues are 700 million dollars below what I projected for the quarter. If you thought Nokia's year 2011 was going to be an annus horribilis based on Ahonen's doom-and-gloom blog, it is clearly going to be far worse...

Make your own guesses how much worse Q2 will be than my original projection in the above, haha..

ANDROID SPLIT

Also as many are intersted in how the Android world is doing, I am continuing with my best guess of how the Android manufacturer internal market shares are going. I find for Q1 that the Android family splits its 36 million handsets sold like this:

HTC . . . . . . . . . . 26%
Samsung . . . . . . 24%
SonyEricsson . . . 13%
LG . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
Motorola . . . . . . . 11%
Others . . . . . . . .  12%

I will come back later with some gossip and news about the various brands how they are doing now in Year 2 the Electric Boogaloo..  But I wanted to post these market share numbers as I know many of my readers have been waiting for them. Enjoy

Comments

[Michael]

I guess the only question is could Nokia end the year with a single digit market share? If they don't bring out a WinPhone handset, I think that's what they are looking at.

[Afewgoodmen]

Apple and Samsung will surpass Nokia's Smartphone market share before the year runs out! Me prediction!!

[Richard Gregory]

Sorry to ask a daft questions, but are these US or Global figures?

[cycnus]

If you guys see that in various brand that the WP7 vs. android, android were winning.
People choose android htc over wp7 htc, or android SE over wp7 se.

so, why would we expect people buy wp7 nokia.

[svensson]

So this means one thing, Nokia goes down faster than expected (much thanks to themselves) and Apple becomes the biggest player both by unit sales and revenue, and then it's up to RIM and Samsung to show what they worth. Is my assumption correct?

[Victor Szulc]

No... RIM is bleeding marketshare at the moment in Europe as well as the US, and what's worse for them... Their niche in the enterprise is being taken over by iOS and Android. Don't be surprised if RIM pulls completely out of consumer-smartphones in a year or two, to concentrate on enterprise solutions, middleware, etc.

Regarding Android vs. WP7... Cycnus, you're a moron if you're comparing the two directly, or assume that Nokia WP7 sales will be weak because of the current WP7 sales.
WP7 has only been released in a handful of markets yet, and in a few languages and their current performance is far from terrible or bad. It's not bad at all in fact.

[custom essays]

Hi, I read a lot of blogs on a daily basis and for the most part, people lack substance but, I just wanted to make a quick comment to say GREAT blog!…..I”ll be checking in on a regularly now….Keep up the good work!

[Joe]

It's not only market share that is down but also Nokia's stock: After warning of a bad Q2 today, share price is down 15%.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi all, I'll start with the replies and will answer each individually

Hi Michael, Afewgoodmen, Richard, Leebase and cygnus

Michael - yea, it now looks very likely Nokia ends the year in single digits. This is by far the biggest collapse of any company ever, who entered the year with globally leading market share and threw this much of it away in a 12 month span..

Afewgoodmen - yea, safe bet. Actually I'm sure RIM will do so too and its likely HTC will pass Nokia as well, dropping thus Nokia down from number 1 to number 5 by Q4

Richard - these are global numbers. I always report global numbers here, except where I specifically mention otherwise. My readership is global... (I myself am a Finn living here in Hong Kong)

Leebase - yeah, true, and actually if I recall, Apple passed Nokia 'as a phone manufacturer' by revenue, not just as a smartphone maker. Massive year for Apple already and only getting better..

cygnus - excellent point and I had never thought of that angle before! Thanks! yes, on the SAME brand manufacturers, Windows Phone 7 handsets are suffering versus Android.. Ouch indeed. But Microsoft does get at least one new chance, for real, with the first Microsoft-Nokia handsets around the end of the year - they could do a dramatic come-back and even if Nokia is crushed in the process, Microsoft gets its Phone 7 onto its feet after Microsoft itself messed up the migration path from a reasonably ok-performing Windows Mobile in 2009.

I will return with more comments later, keep the discussion going

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Jouko Ahvenainen]

Tomi, do you have new numbers of all handsets (not only smartphones).

My prediction (I'm not an analyst or expert, just follow the market) is that Samsung take the #1 position in volumes in this year. It looks like Nokia goes down fast and I cannot see, what could turn it in this year; it only looks worse.

It was interesting to see HTC is ahead Samsung in Android.

[tory burch flats]

So Nokia is already 4 market share points below what I projected, 5 million unit sales below what I projected. It is almost spot-on on the average sales price drop as I predicted, thus total smartphone revenues are 700 million dollars below what I projected for the quarter. If you thought Nokia's year 2011 was going to be an annus horribilis based on Ahonen's doom-and-gloom blog, it is clearly going to be far worse...

[Cheap Beats By Dre]

or the quarter. If you thought Nokia's year 2011 was going to be an annus horribilis based on Ahonen's doom-and-gloom blog, it is clearly going to be far worse...

[konut projeleri]

40 bets. The total value of the betting was 26 Euros. Again, not 26 thousand or 26 million. Over three months, the service that cost 33,000 Euros to develop

[traverten eskitme]

Cycnus, you're a moron if you're comparing the two directly, or assume that Nokia WP7 sales will be weak because of the current WP7 sales.

[beats by dre store]

comparing the two directly, or assume that Nokia WP7 sales will be weak because of the current WP7 sales.

[emt basic training]

WP7 has only been released in a handful of markets yet, and in a few languages and their current performance is far from terrible or bad. It's not bad at all in fact. How can you say it's not bad at all?

[world-battery]

I will return with more comments later, keep the discussi

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