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« First numbers of the first quarter in Bloodbath year 2: Apple reports stunning quarter | Main | Elop 'Burns Boats' in Shifting Symbian to Accenture: He had to do it to focus Nokia staff »

April 25, 2011


Randall "Texrat" Arnold

I'm really thinking that Nokia's elimination of my last job was a blessing in disguise... and timed right, too.


So, if you live in Africa you are using for sure a Nokia´s dumbphone...So, let me understand, then Nokia´s smartphones are what? Indian phones??

You are really begin to bore with you Q after Q missed predictions...


I have a high degree of respect for you as a top dog in the mobile game. However, your constant reference of feature/dumb phones as 'Africa-phones' is something I (a smartphone using African) cannot stomach anymore.

FYI Africans use iPhone and in particular Blackberry too - there is a BBerry craze in Nigeria right now (see and its not just for the elites. On the flip side, I see a lot of feature / dumb phones in use here in London, even by the affluent City of London types. Your stereotype is not helpful, lends itself to many connotations and detracts from your astute professionalism. Could you please refrain from using it.



pk de cville

I think this could only happen with the iPhone, AND Android together swallowing the market whole like Great White Sharks (apropos of your 'bloodbath' theme).

Of course, thanks must also be extended to Ballmer doing what he does better than anyone in business history - extinguish. First Yahoo's and now Nokia's heads hang on his hunting lodge wall.

This is where I see Jobs as very devious. How did he get Nokia's own CEO and Board to grant the industry a 2011 where Nokia intentionally walked away from almost its complete smartphone market share leaving it to Apple et al to gobble up? (How did he influence Ballmer and Nokia to cause this ill begotten farce?) (see

No wonder they can't make enough iPhones.


Nokia would have been better backing Android than jumping into bed with Microsoft. MSFT is declining in influence and without monopoly lock-in they are not going to hack it in a phone market where they already lost the initiative to Apple and Google. Android is likely to become the PC of the Smartphone world so better to be a DELL or Compaq in that world than an Atari or a Commodore.


Hi Tomi,

Nokia's Q1 numbers (smartphones sales) were quite expected when you combine two threads. First of all S60 sales just continued the deteoriation that started in Q4. Most of the S60 models are simply too old and becoming obsolete and they should already have been replaced with newer (S3) models. 2nd issue is the stupid component selections (mainly AMOLED panels (which as everybody knows are in industrywide shortage in Q4 and Q1) in all S3 models). They propably sold all S3 phones they could manufacturer in Q4 and Q1. Volumes just could not match the decline in S60 sales.

Interesting enough, gross marging did hardly change from Q4 to Q1 so maybe they have been able to cut costs effectively.

Looking at Nokia's own guidance seems like they are expecting Q2 to be the worst and situation stabilize after that (lots of new S3 models coming on 2H, some (E6 propably will sell well, X7) also in Q2 although propably only late in the quarter). Some kind of tactical price war is included in the quidance. Personally I believe around 20 million NOK smartphones to be sold in Q2. Beyond that depends heavily on the new S3 product launches and the eventual appearance of windows phones. I believe the 20-million defence line can be kept on Q3 if things go optimally (but if past dictates anything, well ...). I don't think D&S will make loss in any of the quarters.

btw. NSN had just the normal seasionality and actually the Q2 quidance is even bullish (relatively speaking). Anyway NSN is not helping Nokia, never has.

ps. sorry for the financial stuff, but it's closely related to the unfolding NoWin saga

TWiT Commander

At this rate, will Elop ever get to sell/ship 150m more Symbian devices, even if we allow for infinite time instead of the 2 year transition?

May be if he gave them away for free, or with some cash to go along with the device.

evden eve nakliyat

I will cover them in compendium blog article next week. The first massive news, and a true salvo fired by a big gun of smartphones came when Apple reported two days ago.



There is nothing new in the wide EBIT % range, that is the guidance style Nokia has been using for quite long time.

On Q2 Nokia prepares for some kind of price war "tactical pricing actions"), that is baked in the guidance. Makes sense since large part of the S60 smartphone portfolio is obsolete and most of the new S3 models will only launch in H2.

It is indeed a question what is the long term affect of price war on brand. Nokia's plan is obviously that Windows Phone will be the brand renewer with high price point which makes the question less significant.

One thing to note is that on Q1 there was still relatively little competition in the lowest smartphone price category. Cheap-Androids will be a big problem. Maybe that was also a factor in the pricing comments and guidance.


Hi Tomi,

As usual... nice one!!!
I was really surprised that you were right (again) that user were more educated about OS than compared to 2-6 years ago.

As you said.... Q2 number would really interesting.
And what would be more interesting to all of us if the new Nokia WP7 device can't match up to the OPK sales of symbian number. Would OPK or any finish take over nokia again and make nokia the new apple? Do nokia need to hit badly before it could resurrected (a.l.a apple/jobs).



This guidance style (range for both EBIT % and revenue) they have now used for 5 quarters (they are not guiding gross margin). If I recall less than half of Nokia's phone sales go through operators so they have always less visibility than some competitors.

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I predicted 28m, 22m, 17m, 12m before Tomi's forecast (in my comment at Turns out that at least for one quarter, my forecast was too rosy. Given that, I will lower my 22m to 21m for this quarter, but make no change to the following quarters.

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The point is, this Q1 was even worse than expected.

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what of the second of the three legs?

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If Nokia's top management focus this Spring is in a shift of platforms from Symbian/MeeGo to Microsoft,

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I truly take account the time you’ve taken to share your thoughts. It is a outstanding assistance, thanks so much!

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The fourth biggest smartphone maker for last year was HTC, just edging Samsung. HTC is struggling with the problem of hypergrowth. Since they switched from Micorosft Windows Mobile to Google’s Android, HTC has been growing faster than the total industry, growing by more than 2.6 times in size of unit sales, in just one year! The problem is now everywhere because HTC has to grow its sales capacity, its marketing ability, its distribution chain, its sourcing capability, its R&D, and its manufacturing. And that was before the Nokia


Nice post.

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