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« Some Milestones We Will See This Year in Mobile Statistics | Main | Smartphones Bloodbath Year 2, Q1: Now Nokia. Ouch, this is painful »

April 22, 2011



Excellent analysis as usual. Two things to consider...

1. I'm not sure I agree with your analysis of the US market. If Verizon had not come on board, I believe it's possible that a sizable percentage of the 2.2 million VZW accounts would have gone to another handset. That's why the Apple lawsuit against Samsung.

2. It now rumored that the 2011 iPhone debut will be late 3rd quarter, not early 3rd quarter. If true, Apple is taking a very big risk.

Matt Johnston

Great article - lots of work into it - but (aha!) I think I'd downplay the risks you describe. Remember that iphone sales are still decent in Q2 every year even though we all knew a new one comes out at the end of the quarter. Heck - there are people still buying the 3GS model now. And the reason for this is software - not hardware. Apple will likely release iOS5 to devs in June and we'll see it with the public shortly after. Software is what drives the iphone and we can only speculate what will be the new killer feature.

An advantage they have is their strong brand. Though the only Android tablet on sale locally is the Galaxy Tab, I know no-one with one. And we've got another 99 tablet makers in the wings as well? That Market will be a bloodbath. It's not going to be pretty. Android itself is already confusing the customer by making it's only differentiating feature the presence of Flash. I won't even go into the build quality of the devices.

Keep up the good work.


When people will learn? Apple is expediencies classic "disruption from below". They have NO hope to fight for the low-end and even if they will play for the middle of of the pyramid with iPhone Nano... it'll be risky. So they concentrate on the very high-end - where the profits are.

This is good decision: if they'll try to compete on price they'll be bankrupt in a few years time. They just don't know how to play these games. If they'll keep the top of the pyramid - they'll be profitable for ten years or more (albeit with eventually shrinking market share in a few years) and will have a hope to open some new lucrative market.


good analysis, I expect AT&T IPhone sales to be massively hit this quarter when more people know that IPhone is on verizon



I, like Piot and Michael, don't think Apple would've had 5.8m US iPhone activations without VZW. AT&T has reported the following for iPhone activations, beginning with CY 3Q08: 2.4m, 1.9, 1.6, 2.4, 3.2, 3.1, 2.7, 3.2, 5.2, 4.1, and 3.6 (+2.2 VZW) in this last quarter. The general pattern is a big boost in launch quarter (or qtr immediately following since June launches are very late in quarter), followed by declines in Dec and Mar quarters. Without VZW, Apple may have had just 3.7-3.8m units activated in the US (due to lowered to $49 3GS). Plus, all the VZW units were higher-priced iPhone 4s (not cheaper 3GS), and that's what moved the ASP upward by ~$20.

You used percentages to defend your point but that's not valid. The US percentage of all iPhone sales has ranged from 25% to 46%.since 3Q08. Since the launch of iPhone 4, it had declined from 38% (Jun08) to 37% to 25% (Dec08), and likely would've gone down even more in this last quarter without VZW.

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Nokia dumbphones unit sales are down by 12% to 84 million units. The average sales price is down by one Euro to 42. Total revenues yes, are obviously then also down,

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