Reading the Tealeaves: My Outline of Stephen Elop Strategy Presentation - REVISED

And yes, today is Nokiaday, its the biggest single presentation or speech in Nokia's recent history. When the first non-Finnish CEO makes his first strategy keynote and shows how Nokia will recover. Here is my thinking of what we'll see, and how it may happen. I honestly do not know, never met the man, and have no insigts from my friends at Nokia who have been very tight-lipped about it all haha.

UPDATE - Nokia has just announced they are going with Microsoft and use Windows based operating system with their smartphones. See Nokia official press release here:

The rest of this blog posting is now meaningless. I think this is a disasterous decision for Nokia, and a brillaint win for Microsoft (congratulations!). Nokia has now sold its future, and is destined to the role of box-mover in slim margin business like Dell in personal computers giving Microsoft the huge reach it wanted to replicate its massively profitable OS strategy it did in PCs but had been unable to do in mobile phones. The obvious winner is Samsung, they now inherit the title of biggest handset maker who also makes their own OS (congrats to Samsung, they must be cheering loudly) and the rest of this blog is now pointless.

There are two possibilities. It is possible he announces that Nokia is dropping one or both of its operating systems Symbian and/or MeeGo and goes with Microsoft Phone 7 or Google Android. This to me, would be a massive strategic mistake, abandoning a huge advantage over most rivals, and relegating Nokia to a future of a 'box-mover'. I cannot honestly see a 'software guy' like Stephen Elop, making such a decision as he knows how vital Microsoft's own OS, Windows (and previously DOS) was in the profits of the PC industry vs the traditional PC giants like Dell, HP (and Compaq), Lenovo (ex IBM) - and obviously that Apple had held onto its Mac OS and always was able to differentiate and be a 'thorn' in the side of Microsoft.

So, I am not expecting him to announce that Nokia smartphones would abandon Symbian and/or MeeGo and switch to Phone 7 and/or Android. But I've been wrong so many times and I honestly don't know.

But its not going to be lukewarm. He is going to do one, or the other. He either throws away the Symbian/MeeGo path and jumps into bed with one outside smartphone OS maker - to immediate cheers of US investors and utter shock to most developers and partners in the current ecosystem - or else he states categorically that Nokia is committed to Symbian/MeeGo and this is why..

So I recognize this is by no means certain, but I do expect he will be telling us Nokia is with Symbian and MeeGo. And this is how I think he will be doing it.

First - this is his 'Steve Jobs moment'. He has the whole world of telecoms and much of the IT industry watching this presentation. He is THE story of today. It is is first such chance and he has the chance to make a huge splash, a truly memorable presentation - remember how amazing was Steve Jobs on stage when he first unveiled the iPhone? The oohs and aahs from the audience? And months of astonishment from the press. He is at that kind of opportunity now. But also, he has to deliver. This cannot be a standard traditional Nokia presentation which bores the pants off most who are listening haha.

He has been CEO for half a year. He has known this is the big presentation of the year. He's know that for six months. Do you think he has prepared for it? What of gadgets, toys, radical announcements? Those would all be timed for this February.

Here is what I expect:

First, he has to acknowledge that Nokia has been having trouble in the past, and that it will make several obvious changes about focusing on customers, loyalty, satisfaction, and stop with the penny-pinching on some of the nonsense.

Then he will have at least one handset to astonish the room. It will be lovely, awesome, cool, sexy, the kind we all want - now. And I am guessing, he has learned enough of the pains of delays, that the phone will be near to launch, rather than promiseware. he should have a prototype in his hand. Ideally this should be the launch phone for MeeGo.

Then he will talk of the 'great success' of Symbian. How big it is, that it is still used in the most advanced country in mobile, Japan, that its newest version S^3 sold 5 million in its first quarter - thats more than iPhone did in its first quarter, or RIM or Android or bada. And compared to Microsoft's new Phone 7 launched the same quarter - Nokia's Symbian S^3 outsold Phone 7 by more than 3 to 1. Then show a bit of how great S^3 is now, and promise how rapidly S^3 will be migrated to all current Symbian devices this Spring.

Then explain that Symbian is Nokia's low-cost and mid-range smartphone platform - where all the growth is - and then show MeeGo as the top end software.

For MeeGo, he has been very quiet. I think this is deliberate, so most would kind of 'forget' about it, and not pay attention to it. So now he can announce MeeGo almost as 'new' and show it is a powerful ecosystem - the OS itself is developed in partnership with Intel - and then he needs to showcase the vast range of big brands who are committed to MeeGo and show the first devices that are just now shipping (not from Nokia yet, these are like some TV set or something).

He should have at least one handset maker to announce into the MeeGo partnership. In a perfect world it should be one of the bigger brands like LG or SonyEricsson or RIM as a long-shot but some handset maker in addition to Nokia.

Then take out his prototype MeeGo handset and illustrate some of the cool things about MeeGo why it is that much more advanced than the field today, why it is 'obviously' Nokia's platform of the future.

And then announce a RANGE of MeeGo devices that will hit the stores this year. At least 3, maybe 5 models. And at least one to ship this Spring, ideally the first model to ship by end of Q1, ie in March. This could be a rebirth of the N9, which seems to have been killed, but that might have been mis-direction.

In that part of the presentation, he has to talk about Qt, explain why Nokia loves its developers, and has this one tool that allows develop-once, publish many times, to developers. Tell that with Qt they can now develop for Symbian and MeeGo - and add at least one, preferrably several other platforms! Ie develop using Qt tools and publish on Android and bada and whatever...

Have some testimonials and stats that it takes X hours to develop on Symbian, Y hours on iPhone, X hours on Andorid, but only W hours to develop using Qt, that kind of comparison. Suddenly all who develop, want to learn more about Qt.

Then take the war to the platforms, talk about how many developers Nokia already has, and count all Symbian developers and MeeGo and Qt developers. Then switch to Ovi

Talk about Ovi and give the latest number, could be something like 5.5 million downloads per day which would be 2 Billion downloads per year. Show the growth rate, how much more this is than 6 months ago, and 12 months ago. Don't mention the rivals, let the journalists find out. But release the REVENUE number, of how much Nokia developers have now earned via Ovi. Then mention they get carrier billing on x number of carriers/networks (should be something like 120 carriers by now) and say this is only on Ovi, and talk about other Ovi strengths like its international footprint, language versions, the typical Nokia local story.

Then talk about Nokia and the world - show how Nokia helps in Africa, the bicycle pedal-powered phone rechargers, the nice ultra-low cost phones for those markets, and mention Nokia's Greenpeace ratings, the feel-good stuff.

Then switch gears for the end. Show something radical for Nokia - a tablet would be the thing that all analysts would love. Make it an 8 inch device so its slightly smaller than Apple, but slightly bigger than Samsung haha.. This could run..even Microsoft Windows 7 haha, why not. Its not a phone. But it should have some of those things we all wanted on the iPad but didn't get. Make it the instantly desirable tablet.

And end on a bang. A stunning US industry love-fest. Announce his deal that AT&T is the launch customer for the E7 in America, which will ship on March 1, at 199 dollars subsidised, and they are starting to take pre-orders Monday, here are the specs... (and show off all the coolest things like the HD video recording camera, the 4 inch screen the QWERTY slider, etc etc etc). Then mention what other Nokia phones will also be carried. (obviously if not AT&T, then T-Mobile or Sprint or whoever, but one of the big 4, and am guessing not Verizon which now is focusing on the iPhone).

If he wants to be cheeky, he could show off an N8 for AT&T and say it is also available in white haha..

After his presentation, the audience has to have restored belief, that Symbian is back. Then to believe, that MeeGo is the best OS, and it makes sense why Nokia is sticking to it, but also, that the MeeGo ecosystem is wide and deep. Then that there is a really compelilng development tool Qt that supports not just both Nokia OS platforms, but also rival OS platforms. Then that Ovi is becoming a huge success. And that Nokia is back in phones, shipping cool phones now, and awesome phones shortly. And for US audiences, that he has a big carrier deal to get back in America.

It would not say Nokia is shifting to Android or Phone 7, but it would (should) be well received by US investors, that Nokia's strategy was right all along, and now Stephen Elop has a wonderful compelling vision for Nokia's future. A viable future where Nokia can differentiate and innovate. That is what I expect haha.. Lets see in a few hours.

PS for those who don't believe the MeeGo or Symbian strategy is viable, please read my analysis of Nokia's smartphone platform strategy here.

Comments

[saurabh]

This is the death of Nokia

Can we campaign against the CEO of Nokia?
Either he knows something that we don't or he just does not get the big picture

What a stupid decision

What happened to Finnish ingenuity ?

[Anders]

Swing and miss!

[Chris Knight]

Stunned. Just stunned.
Nokia - the Palm of 2011.

[Dino]

There is something called confirmation bias.

It has to do with how you portray information in a light that only reflect your own preconceived opinion.

Tomi, with all due respect, I think you have a huge confirmation bias. Knowledgeable? yes, without a questions. Objective? not by a long shot, and Im talking light years...

[Don McLean]

Tomi, here is another piece of today just to add suprise:

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-02-11/apple-is-said-to-work-on-cheaper-more-versatile-iphone-models.html

[Mel Pullen]

As a programmer, I have to say that WP7 is a great platform and Microsoft had made a great effort to sort out application and update delivery.

WP7 offers a fantastic development environment for simple, scripted apps (something that Apple will never allow on their phones) that uses F#.

I wish the pair of them luck. I for one will be buying a WP7 phone and developing apps on it. I won't stop developing for Android and iOS. I already stopped developing for Symbian.

[Alex]

Trojan horse comes to mind. Will be interesting to investigate how Elop actually came in this position. That is really something I admire on Apple: their absolute brand awareness, they would never ever give up their OS and bring out products that don´t hold up with their standard. Interesting also that Elop just sees and argues this whole story from an US point of view, though Nokias strongholds are for sure not there.
They also underestimate the effect on the developer community. Imagine what a frustration it must be if you are still developing for Symbian / MeeGo, and then you hear this. It is not that they loose these people, they have made real enemies. Think of the message: they officially annonced today: our OS was shit, we failed 100%, our internal developer team failed, we simple dont have the competence, we go to Microsoft! (though their mobile story was an utterly fail so far)
Tomi, I think the strategy you laid out the other day would be the best for them, not easy to execute probably but with the potential holding the Nr. 1 position. Today they officially annonced they are not claiming Nr. 1 any more.
Today you could also see the effect if you have a CEO manager, who is not 100% identified with the brand and company. I don´t know whom Elop is loyal to, but imagine Steve Jobs giving up his baby this stupid way? Never ever.

[saurabh]

Nokia is going to lose it's customers by truck load

I just hate ELOP, seriously..

after struggling for years Nokia came up with somewhat great phones N8, E7 and now when it was on the cusp of recovery it makes a hash of it

I loved the N93 Adverts when it was launched..

All of that is gone ??????????????????????

I can't believe the Finns doing such a thing

Remove the American..from Nokia

[Tomi T Ahonen]

To all in this thread - thank you for comments. Obviously I was hoping for opposite result. Please ignore this thread, I was utterly wrong, no point in discussing it here. I have a new blog about the partnership, will be happy to discuss it there.

Tomi Ahonen

[Bill]

That deleted article was such a great example of wishful thinking. I know I'm going to get the Nokia fanbois all over me for saying this, but i truly think you guys all terribly overestimated Symbian and Meego. Symbian is old, cumbersome, complex, slow, touch unfriendly, and it's going to die in the next year or two. Meego development was just not fast enough (and I suspect that even when finished it would not have been competitive with iOS5 or android 4 (those are the OSs it would be up against). I know you won't believe this, but clearly the Nokia board did and they have access to more information about these platforms than any of us.

And Tomi: your dream solution hardware truly included the phrase: 'slide out QWERTY'? That's so 2007. I remember all the dinosaurs of the mobile industry predicted iPhone would be an epic fail in 2007 because it lacked a hard QWERTY. Each year that goes by the idea that an advanced phone needs a hard QWERTY is slowly dying. In 2007 the iphone will fail because it lacks a hard QWERTY (and removable battery) meme was all over every prediction. Don't really see that now do we? Any company relying on hard QWERTY as a key differentiator is deluding themselves.

[LazerpointFocus]

I take my hat off for you Tomi for beeing such a strong character. Not many people out here on the net or in real life have the balls to say whats really on their mind and believing in it. Pls continue delivering interesting numbers and funny tweets to us. Peace

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