Reading the Tealeaves: My Outline of Stephen Elop Strategy Presentation - REVISED

And yes, today is Nokiaday, its the biggest single presentation or speech in Nokia's recent history. When the first non-Finnish CEO makes his first strategy keynote and shows how Nokia will recover. Here is my thinking of what we'll see, and how it may happen. I honestly do not know, never met the man, and have no insigts from my friends at Nokia who have been very tight-lipped about it all haha.

UPDATE - Nokia has just announced they are going with Microsoft and use Windows based operating system with their smartphones. See Nokia official press release here:

The rest of this blog posting is now meaningless. I think this is a disasterous decision for Nokia, and a brillaint win for Microsoft (congratulations!). Nokia has now sold its future, and is destined to the role of box-mover in slim margin business like Dell in personal computers giving Microsoft the huge reach it wanted to replicate its massively profitable OS strategy it did in PCs but had been unable to do in mobile phones. The obvious winner is Samsung, they now inherit the title of biggest handset maker who also makes their own OS (congrats to Samsung, they must be cheering loudly) and the rest of this blog is now pointless.

There are two possibilities. It is possible he announces that Nokia is dropping one or both of its operating systems Symbian and/or MeeGo and goes with Microsoft Phone 7 or Google Android. This to me, would be a massive strategic mistake, abandoning a huge advantage over most rivals, and relegating Nokia to a future of a 'box-mover'. I cannot honestly see a 'software guy' like Stephen Elop, making such a decision as he knows how vital Microsoft's own OS, Windows (and previously DOS) was in the profits of the PC industry vs the traditional PC giants like Dell, HP (and Compaq), Lenovo (ex IBM) - and obviously that Apple had held onto its Mac OS and always was able to differentiate and be a 'thorn' in the side of Microsoft.

So, I am not expecting him to announce that Nokia smartphones would abandon Symbian and/or MeeGo and switch to Phone 7 and/or Android. But I've been wrong so many times and I honestly don't know.

But its not going to be lukewarm. He is going to do one, or the other. He either throws away the Symbian/MeeGo path and jumps into bed with one outside smartphone OS maker - to immediate cheers of US investors and utter shock to most developers and partners in the current ecosystem - or else he states categorically that Nokia is committed to Symbian/MeeGo and this is why..

So I recognize this is by no means certain, but I do expect he will be telling us Nokia is with Symbian and MeeGo. And this is how I think he will be doing it.

First - this is his 'Steve Jobs moment'. He has the whole world of telecoms and much of the IT industry watching this presentation. He is THE story of today. It is is first such chance and he has the chance to make a huge splash, a truly memorable presentation - remember how amazing was Steve Jobs on stage when he first unveiled the iPhone? The oohs and aahs from the audience? And months of astonishment from the press. He is at that kind of opportunity now. But also, he has to deliver. This cannot be a standard traditional Nokia presentation which bores the pants off most who are listening haha.

He has been CEO for half a year. He has known this is the big presentation of the year. He's know that for six months. Do you think he has prepared for it? What of gadgets, toys, radical announcements? Those would all be timed for this February.

Here is what I expect:

First, he has to acknowledge that Nokia has been having trouble in the past, and that it will make several obvious changes about focusing on customers, loyalty, satisfaction, and stop with the penny-pinching on some of the nonsense.

Then he will have at least one handset to astonish the room. It will be lovely, awesome, cool, sexy, the kind we all want - now. And I am guessing, he has learned enough of the pains of delays, that the phone will be near to launch, rather than promiseware. he should have a prototype in his hand. Ideally this should be the launch phone for MeeGo.

Then he will talk of the 'great success' of Symbian. How big it is, that it is still used in the most advanced country in mobile, Japan, that its newest version S^3 sold 5 million in its first quarter - thats more than iPhone did in its first quarter, or RIM or Android or bada. And compared to Microsoft's new Phone 7 launched the same quarter - Nokia's Symbian S^3 outsold Phone 7 by more than 3 to 1. Then show a bit of how great S^3 is now, and promise how rapidly S^3 will be migrated to all current Symbian devices this Spring.

Then explain that Symbian is Nokia's low-cost and mid-range smartphone platform - where all the growth is - and then show MeeGo as the top end software.

For MeeGo, he has been very quiet. I think this is deliberate, so most would kind of 'forget' about it, and not pay attention to it. So now he can announce MeeGo almost as 'new' and show it is a powerful ecosystem - the OS itself is developed in partnership with Intel - and then he needs to showcase the vast range of big brands who are committed to MeeGo and show the first devices that are just now shipping (not from Nokia yet, these are like some TV set or something).

He should have at least one handset maker to announce into the MeeGo partnership. In a perfect world it should be one of the bigger brands like LG or SonyEricsson or RIM as a long-shot but some handset maker in addition to Nokia.

Then take out his prototype MeeGo handset and illustrate some of the cool things about MeeGo why it is that much more advanced than the field today, why it is 'obviously' Nokia's platform of the future.

And then announce a RANGE of MeeGo devices that will hit the stores this year. At least 3, maybe 5 models. And at least one to ship this Spring, ideally the first model to ship by end of Q1, ie in March. This could be a rebirth of the N9, which seems to have been killed, but that might have been mis-direction.

In that part of the presentation, he has to talk about Qt, explain why Nokia loves its developers, and has this one tool that allows develop-once, publish many times, to developers. Tell that with Qt they can now develop for Symbian and MeeGo - and add at least one, preferrably several other platforms! Ie develop using Qt tools and publish on Android and bada and whatever...

Have some testimonials and stats that it takes X hours to develop on Symbian, Y hours on iPhone, X hours on Andorid, but only W hours to develop using Qt, that kind of comparison. Suddenly all who develop, want to learn more about Qt.

Then take the war to the platforms, talk about how many developers Nokia already has, and count all Symbian developers and MeeGo and Qt developers. Then switch to Ovi

Talk about Ovi and give the latest number, could be something like 5.5 million downloads per day which would be 2 Billion downloads per year. Show the growth rate, how much more this is than 6 months ago, and 12 months ago. Don't mention the rivals, let the journalists find out. But release the REVENUE number, of how much Nokia developers have now earned via Ovi. Then mention they get carrier billing on x number of carriers/networks (should be something like 120 carriers by now) and say this is only on Ovi, and talk about other Ovi strengths like its international footprint, language versions, the typical Nokia local story.

Then talk about Nokia and the world - show how Nokia helps in Africa, the bicycle pedal-powered phone rechargers, the nice ultra-low cost phones for those markets, and mention Nokia's Greenpeace ratings, the feel-good stuff.

Then switch gears for the end. Show something radical for Nokia - a tablet would be the thing that all analysts would love. Make it an 8 inch device so its slightly smaller than Apple, but slightly bigger than Samsung haha.. This could run..even Microsoft Windows 7 haha, why not. Its not a phone. But it should have some of those things we all wanted on the iPad but didn't get. Make it the instantly desirable tablet.

And end on a bang. A stunning US industry love-fest. Announce his deal that AT&T is the launch customer for the E7 in America, which will ship on March 1, at 199 dollars subsidised, and they are starting to take pre-orders Monday, here are the specs... (and show off all the coolest things like the HD video recording camera, the 4 inch screen the QWERTY slider, etc etc etc). Then mention what other Nokia phones will also be carried. (obviously if not AT&T, then T-Mobile or Sprint or whoever, but one of the big 4, and am guessing not Verizon which now is focusing on the iPhone).

If he wants to be cheeky, he could show off an N8 for AT&T and say it is also available in white haha..

After his presentation, the audience has to have restored belief, that Symbian is back. Then to believe, that MeeGo is the best OS, and it makes sense why Nokia is sticking to it, but also, that the MeeGo ecosystem is wide and deep. Then that there is a really compelilng development tool Qt that supports not just both Nokia OS platforms, but also rival OS platforms. Then that Ovi is becoming a huge success. And that Nokia is back in phones, shipping cool phones now, and awesome phones shortly. And for US audiences, that he has a big carrier deal to get back in America.

It would not say Nokia is shifting to Android or Phone 7, but it would (should) be well received by US investors, that Nokia's strategy was right all along, and now Stephen Elop has a wonderful compelling vision for Nokia's future. A viable future where Nokia can differentiate and innovate. That is what I expect haha.. Lets see in a few hours.

PS for those who don't believe the MeeGo or Symbian strategy is viable, please read my analysis of Nokia's smartphone platform strategy here.

Comments

[Johny]

oooooops...

[HCE]

What I am going to say is based on the assumption that the "burning platform" memo is genuine - and you're about the only one that I've read who believes it to be fake.

1. I doubt that this is going to be just a Symbian/MeeGo/Qt announcement. I think Windows Phone 7 and/or Android (more likely the former) are going to be part of the announcement.

2. This does not necessarily mean that Nokia is going to dump any of its platforms. They might proceed with a three OS strategy for some time - hedging their bets with Windows Phone 7 at the high end. If MeeGo does indeed take off then they could always reduce emphasis on Windows Phone 7.

3. If they do decide to dump one of their platforms, then it will almost certainly be MeeGo. As you say, they need Symbian for their low end smartphones.

Of course, if the memo is fake then what you say just might happen.

- HCE

[Don McLean]

Upon reading the second possibility, the first one started looking like guaranteed TBH

[Juho]

I so, so wish what you wrote would have happened. Sigh.

[saurabh]

whew... I read this.

Tomi I want Nokia to Succeed, call me a fanboy or any other fanciful name.

I desperately want Nokia to succeed so that I can show them why I have been loyal to this group all along except for in 2007 when I was blinded by Steve Jobs Keynote address and immediately ordered an iphone from AT&T. All the fallacies of the device were discovered much later at that moment it was just the blinding of the senses by the iPhone. I hope and pray that Nokia makes such kind of impact soon, They need it.

They are the market leaders but they are not showing that to the world, It's time they start flexing their muscles and show the world who the boss it.

Wishing Stephen Elop all the best.

more rants from my end post the Keynote.

[Don McLean]

And to throw in some point. The Nokia just couldn't prevent leaks if any of those dream devices" exist, and there were no reading of such.

[that guy]

First off.. Still thinking that memo was fake?

Secondly, http://conversations.nokia.com/2011/02/11/open-letter-from-ceo-stephen-elop-nokia-and-ceo-steve-ballmer-microsoft/

BOOM.

See you guys in 10 months when Nokia is a player in the smart phone market again and has a product they can actually be proud of.

[AnonymousGerbil]

Windows Phone 7 strategy it is...

[Johny]

Read it loud: Nokia Phone 7.
Reflecting on the burning platform, @segphault twitted: "Nokia chose Microsoft. I guess when your company is circling the toilet bowl, stepping onto a log of shit is the only way to stay afloat."

http://conversations.nokia.com/2011/02/11/open-letter-from-ceo-stephen-elop-nokia-and-ceo-steve-ballmer-microsoft/

[Tuomas Ahola]

First off, great blog!

Second, I will be absolutely, mindbogglingly stunned, if Mr. Elop announces anything but continued support for MeeGo and Symbian. I cannot imagine the day Nokia becomes "just" another hardware manufacturer, being told by "big brother", be it hypothetically Microsoft or Google, what/where/how/when. I mean, look at the current Android/WP7 line-up: take the labels off, and they all are the same phone! Whether it is HTC, Samsung, SE, etc etc, all of them have the same form factor, and all of them run the same OS's. Nokia needs to differentiate; Nokia needs regain consumers' perception of superior engineering and innovation.

As you've mentioned time and again, Nokia needs to stick to what they know best, excellent hardware engineering, and add some good ol' American marketing strategy to the mix. Show some flash. Wow us a little. Be over-the-top self-confident, borderline arrogant. Ok, I'll put it bluntly: Nokia needs to man up, take names and kick some butt.

[Tuomas Ahola]

I am stunned. And about 5 mins too late to the party I see :)

[disappointed]

This was lame!

Ex. Microsoft executive selects Microsoft - what a suprise.

And not enough changes in the loser executive team to show the organization that change is imperative.

Come Stephen, try a little harder!

[Arild]

So, the smart phone soap opera continues, new interest into the series was created by fixing a marriage between two unlikely suitors :-) For some interesting comparisons with companies that lose their wayn why not look at the history of Apple, especially between 1986 and 1997: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Inc.

Anssi Vanjoki in 2020 perhaps...

[Don McLean]

Two turkeys indeed. Nokia has just managed to instantly alienate me, after all those long years. Windows Phone is like exact opposite from the all that (existing) customers highly values in Symbian. Oh sweet irony.

[adigitalife]

Looks like the scenario I pictured in my previous comment (which mysteriously I can't seem to find anymore) was dead on. I was even right about the Ovi store:

"Nokia’s content and application store will be integrated with Microsoft Marketplace for a more compelling consumer experience."

Unfortunately, I'm no genius since almost everyone else had the same prediction too.

Nokia + Microsoft. Madness you say? I think madness is what Nokia. I truly believe this is for the best and creates a win-win situation for both companies.

By the way, all your arguments regarding Symbian are valid. But Symbian is/was never on the chopping block so in that sense those arguments are irrelevant. Dropping MeeGo doesn't mean that Symbian has to go too. What's wrong with Symbian/WinPhone7? To me, that looks like a more solid combination.

[AT33]

Stephen Elop - Nokia's Trojan Horse straight from M$!!!

[Victor Szulc]

Yay! Congrats Nokia! I might actually go with a Nokia for my next phone now, can't wait to see what kind of device we'll see from them in 6 months from now!

[clive boulton]

Leaving Oracle and RIM to cozy up after Larry's lawyers gain some rights to Android. Someone will have to calm his jets otherwise its renamed the BlackOracle

[Samseng]

Not quite sure what all the noise is about......

Looks like same old same old to me, let me elaborate

Symbian and Meego still around and placed under Smart devices division, along with Windows

More than 90% of the board is still around, with only one person leaving and increases from 10 to 13 persons

In all probability, they are using the Windows 7 announcement as some sort of smoke screen or diversion to keep the shareholders happy that something radically is being done.

Elop is probably still in the power building phase, where he is unlikely to be allowed to make any radical decisions that he felt could turn Nokia around. I hate to nationalist about it but I doubt if the board members would have allowed him to drop Symbian or Meego and laid off more than probably a few percentage points of Finland's population working in Nokia directly or indirectly!!

Perhaps, when the Nokia built Windows 7 pops up some quarters down the road and the numbers are good, Elop may be in a better position to make more meaningful changes.

But till then, I expect some cosmetic changes and have things go on in the same old manner.

[@unwiredasia]

Since Elop cannot see beyond M$oft, Nokia has no future. This is the nail in the coffin. A North American vision of the mobile world will set Nokia back 20 years.

Android, Bada and maybe RIM can now fight it out in Asia.

My vote is with Android. RIM and Samsung makes good products. However, RIM - like Apple - is a one trick pony. BBM and iOS touchscreens. There's no community. Android was designed for commnunity. Not sure about Samsung's Bada direction.

Coming back to the burning platform. It just self-imploded!