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« When Things Get Even Worse Than You Thought - 1st Preview of Potential for Nokia Microsoft Partnership, short term 2011 and 2012 | Main | All the Numbers, All the Facts on Mobile the Trillion-Dollar Industry. Why is Google saying: Put your Best People on Mobile? »

February 16, 2011

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Cubicle

Our company develops 3rd party apps for Symbian, Android and iPhone and here's a developer view...

The software developers already started jumping the ship on the 11th - we got our first Symbian app order cancellation already on the Friday when deal was announced! There is no way Nokia will sell 150 million symbian phones. Elop is asking the dumb consumers to buy some crap (not gonna support it!) and then expect to be faithful in 1,5 years time when the first WP7 phone is out.

QT had turned on number of devoted Nokia developers as it seemed finally to promise an easy to program (QML scripting) Symbian UI. We doubt lot of QT developers will migrate over to C#. Some true devotees may have the stamina to wait for a year before they see Micronokia device in market with WP7. Majority of open source developers will migrate to Android and remain loyal to Intel colored MeeGo.

Android phones from China are reaching into the low end S40 in price and have far better programming environment than the J2ME spaghetti Nokia provides. Also Android is an open ecosystem - where else can I write an app in hopes of it making a phone, TV and car navigator? MeeGo - maybe.

We will NOT develop for WP7 until there is a well 20+ million phones out there. The economics just don't work for an app vendor before there's real mass. Microsoft has repeated failed with Windows Mobile - WP7 or WP8 will not be any different. Majority of developers want openness so they can do what they feel like with the phone environment. A closed source OS like WP7 just doesnt cut it.

Elop's decision puts Nokia's decline into a free fall. Micronokia - just like Ericsson became a nobody with SonyEricsson deal. From fame to grave in 18 months. The 2011 will be booked as the year when market share collapsed on all fronts for the company. In developed markets nobody with senses will buy an OS that will not be supported in the future by the manufacturer.

Fox Hats

Elop is asking the dumb consumers to buy some crap (not gonna support it!) and then expect to be faithful in 1,5 years time when the first WP7 phone is out.

EK


Tomi, I think you have gone from traditional (over) optimism to over pessimism.

I'm not buying the 75 % destruction of E-series within a year. Now corporations know that they have to change away from Symbian anyway, they may just as well see WP a reasonable choice because of best possible Microsoft integration and stick with Nokia for the time being. No doubt E-series guys are already cooking some migration story which is being sold to customers soon. There will surely be damage but not on this scale.

Another viewpoint is that corporate clients have seen a giant to fall and they might just as well question the fate of RIM on the longer run. Will it be the "Nokia" of 2012 ? Is there a four horse race ?

Some persons also commented the fact that the potentiall windfall is so huge that the entire industry does not have flexibility and spare capacity to accommodate to the possibilities fully on a short term (say 1H), lack of components and capacity.

2H is different story, more room for adjustments. However, Nokia can still save some ground if they manage to publish very strong next wave of S3 devices. I don't think that consumers care so much about the end of Symbian, many of them will buy a Nokia as previously if it looks good, has the functionality they want and the price is right.

On the negative side, 1Q and 2Q sales of S3 devices are still constrained by the stupid component selections. Latest (last ?) S60 additions (E5 and C5-03) don't seem to be any hits.

So, a bad or very bad year to come but not the kind of Gotterdämmerung you are painting.

Dissertation Writing

Nokia is absolutely best association on order to providing the mobile phones and quality ones,the Nokia is engaged in the manufacturing of mobile devices and in converging Internet and communications industries, with over 132,000 employees in 120 countries,the things you share about the different companies which is related to the cell phones,it is good but Nokia is best and will remain the best.

Dissertation Writing

Nokia is absolutely best association on order to providing the mobile phones and quality ones,the Nokia is engaged in the manufacturing of mobile devices and in converging Internet and communications industries, with over 132,000 employees in 120 countries,the things you share about the different companies which is related to the cell phones,it is good but Nokia is best and will remain the best.

NOKIA You ARE Comitting SUICIDE

Great analyicis Tomi !This Judas Elop have
just KILLED a great company as NOKIA !!
I for Ex. will NEVER EVER buy a NOKIA

again
if this goes thru !! (

For NOKIAs sake I hope
they still do MUTINY because this is

SUICIDE
on their part ! ) Judas Elop Thinks he

saves
MS with this !

BOY IS HE WRONG !!!!

THIS JUST BROUGHT EVEN MORE HATERED

AGAINST MS !

MS think that they can force NOKIAs

Costumers
to use their OS....

SORRY !! WANT HAPPEN !!

The Chinese will cook up MeeGo to

something GREAT....And take over the WORLD

!! That will be my next REAL SMARTphone

...WP7.5 or whatever #¤%& "They" will Call

it will NEVER Sell !


And Tomi as a fellow Finn an advice....

Stop from now on to give MS FREE OR ANY
ADVICE....

DO NEVER SELL YOUR SEOUL TO THE DEVIL !!!!

Allen Cross

Just a follow-up to my (above) response of 16 Feb.:

Two new sets of results from 4Q2010 showing Nokia smartphones and RIM's Blackberry line well down (15-20 points, each) in European market-share, with iPhone doing even worse (20-25 point drop) despite a 66% (!) increase in sales. Oh, they also show Android handset sales up nearly 1600% over 2010, providing an extra 25-30 points in market-share.

http://www.mobileeurope.co.uk/news/news-anaylsis/8639-android-surges-ahead-in-europe-

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things remaining the same' which obviously won't actually happen this year. The smartphone market is particularly fluid this year facing dynamic changes. But it is a starting point.

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