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« My 10th book: Insider's Guide to Mobile - cover image, table of contents, summary | Main | Rare Synch of Regional Quarterly Data Gives View to Regional Split Top 3 Smartphones »

December 16, 2010


Manolo Blahnik

I have never read such a wonderful article and I am coming back tomorrow to continue reading.


RIM reported on its conference call that unit sell-through was only 12.3m, and thus, inventory increased in the quarter. Now we know exactly why the units sold in the quarter was 14.2m.

I don't know why it matters whether Apple is no 2 or 3 for the year; those are arbitrary boundaries and there is no prize for being no 2, so your magic number is just as arbitrary. The key is that the trend is in place - iPhone is growing at or better than the smartphone market for the last year; RIMM has been below for at least the last 9 months. Most analysts think iPhone will reach 16m in unit sales for the 4Q; that may be enough in yoy growth (84%) to top the smartphone market growth once again.

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Je vous remercie de prendre le temps de publier cette information très utile, je suis toujours en attente de quelques idées intéressantes à partir de votre c?té dans votre prochain post merci.

Phil W

Ok Lee, I'll bite. The reason why Apple takes the Lion's share of the profits is that it is playing a very high stakes game. It plays only in the highest part of the market where the profits are the best. It's high risk because one slip and Apple could lose the market and its profits completely. Do I think that will happen? Probably not, because Apple is extremely good at what it does.

Other companies do not want to take that risk, so opt for the more conservative approach of addressing all market segments (as a Nokia employee, I'm thinking Nokia here) This is safer as no one slip is going to put them out of business. This is inevitably lower profit business, but not no profit business. However because profits are thinner, volumes are important.

So in summary for Nokia and Samsung et al, market share is extremely important to maximise the profit they can make. Apple is playing a different game, they only care that they have some market share (but it needs to be reasonably sustainable), they don't need to maximise it like the other companies.

So the fact that Apple is trouncing everybody else with profits is non-news, they would be in trouble if they weren't.

And Nokias market share has been holding up reasonably well and not falling as drastically as you imply and with the refreshed portfolio will stabilise and maybe increase. We'll see next quarter.

Finally, since this stream is about RIM, RIM is closer to playing Apple's game in that it targets one market segment very well - the enterprise market. Unlike Apple it is branching out from that niche, but is struggling a little.

Guillaume B

There's two paths RIM can go at this point. They can try and move their QNX platform they're introducing to the PlayBook to phones. But if I were RIM, at this point, I'd be looking into moving into a services business.

They're too small to compete effectively alone in this market environment.

They could become THE universal business platform for all smartphones. Work closely with other smartphone OS makers to have hooks for a Blackberry platform to enable device management through BES that would work as well with Android phones as with a Nokia or an iPhone, a cross-platform compatible Blackberry Messenger a secure, encrypted email client. They could become a must for every smartphone owner. They could also license this all to featurephones and messaging phones.

The potential market here is huge, as you know Tomi.

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Salut, où avez-vous obtenu cette information peut vous s'il vous pla?t appuyer ce avec une certaine preuve ou vous pouvez dire quelques bonnes références que moi et d'autres apprécieront vraiment. Cette information est vraiment bon et je vais dire sera toujours utile si nous essayer sans risques. Donc, si vous pouvez le sauvegarder. Cela nous aidera vraiment à tous. Et cela pourrait apporter un peu de bonne réputation pour vous.

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Arghh.. yeah, thanks Claus212 - I didn't notice I apparently took all numbers from the wrong column for Nokia, and didn't see that being 32% (should have been 23%). So the numbers should have read 76%, 23% and 1% for Nokia. Now it is (finally) correct. Thank you

I will return to comment to the others later

Tomi :-)


"Finally, since this stream is about RIM, RIM is closer to playing Apple's game in that it targets one market segment very well - the enterprise market. Unlike Apple it is branching out from that niche, but is struggling a little"

Tomi i think it is important to point out that RIM's success in branching out is actually very successful. Sure if you look at the raw shipment numbers, the success of RIM in the international and youth/messaging markets looks luke warm. Of course these markets pale in comparison to the size of NA or WE.

When you look at the growth rate in these regions the pattern becomes very promising. Push this growth out a couple of years and the NA situation will be irrelevant. the CEO's have publicly stated that they do not want to be involved in the arms race that is taking place in the US and that the global stage is the one they want to play on. (i believe you would agree that outside the US, the smartphone game is a different beast).

What's more....the driver of their international success is messaging. A service proven to be addictive and very profitable.(what's more....they are giving it away for free). To me that sounds like a very strong loyalty builder. As RIM starts releasing more advanced devices (and they will), the kids hooked on RIM today can aspire to higher end devices or stay with the affordable offerings that are also in RIM's portfolio. (and in prepaid markets, affordable means something).

I feel that due to the recent disruptive elements and growth in the smartphone market, people are looking at each quarter and changing their opinions. It has gotten to the point where one year is considered the long view. However if this is expanded to a three year view, i think opinions would shift back towards a positive RIM future. Key thing to consider:
1.QNX is a good OS (i know that is a simple answer, but check out the details on your will see)
2.RIM acquisitions : RIM has shown that it is very good a recognizing where it is weak, and then buying a company (such as TAT) to fix the problem.
3.As developed markets choke on the explosive high end smartphone growth, the smart guys looking 3 years out, are now laying roots in places like India and China where the ability to provide low cost smartphones (or even better, low cost data services) will win big.

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I wonder what will happen with windows 7 phone. RIm is a great brand though


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