5 - 4 - 3 - 2 - 1, as in Billions. What do these gigantic numbers mean?

We heard three weeks ago, that the world now has 5 Billion mobile phone subscriptions (for a planet with a total population of 6.8 Billion). I have recently been obsessing about smartphones a lot at this blog as we've had the numerous big phone maker quarterly results coming out for the half-year. Today I want to stay away from the phone wars, and talk about the mobile consumer. So lets dig into some consumer numbers and facts, to explore the users of mobile.

So lets start with the 5 Billion. It is measured per-capita. As we approach the 6.8 Billion subscription level - the planet is likely to reach 100% mobile phone subscriptions for every person on the planet, by about 2013-2014 - thats almost any day now haha - I find an interesting metric to use is the 'mobile phone subscription for everybody older than' metric. Lets count down the age, assuming every subscription is divided to every adult starting from the eldest, and going down in age (obviously that is not reality, but its a cool count-down). Today the 5 billion mobile phone subscriptions would cover one active paid mobile phone account, for every adult person and every teenager down to age 15... (by the end of the year 2010, that will be down to age 13 haha.. you see what I mean, this will be a funky way to count down to age zero over the next four years)

5 Billion mobile phone subscriptions means the equivalent of a mobile phone for every single person on the planet age 15 or older, across every continent, beyond illiteracy, beyond electricity, beyond poverty etc. Wow. Now, obviously that is a totally artificial metric and does not reflect the reality - African mobile phone penetration rate is currently barely over 50%, but its an interesting way to consider the growing susbcription number. But regular readers know TomiAhonen Consulting provides industry stats often that nobody else does, about the industry users, services, revenues, traffic etc. So lets dig into that 5 Billion subscriber number a bit. The real insights.

HOW MANY IS MANY

Not every one of the 5 Billion mobile phone subscriptions is a 'unique user' because some people have 2 phones, some have 2 accounts or more - and some of those with multiple accounts do not have 2 phones..   So how does it break down? I explained the break-down in the TomiAhonen Almanac in 2010 for end-of-year 2009 numbers. Here is the updated breakdown:

5.0 Billion total active mobile phone subscriptions on the planet

4.1 Billion actual actively used mobile phones carried by mobile phone users
3.6 Billion unique mobile phone subscribers with at least one active account and phone

But then there is the phenomenon of users with more than one account. So we can't just subtract 3.6 Billion from 5.0 Billion to find how many are those customers with 2 accounts. I have been tracking those details too and here is the update.

Of 3.6 Billion unique mobile phone subscribers, 2.5 Billion have only 1 account. 1.1 Billion have two or more accounts, and already 300 million people have 3 or more active mobile phone accounts. Of those 1.1 Billion people with more than one account, 500 million have also 2 phones that they carry around regularly. Yes, one in seven of the mobile phone owners on the planet, already walks around with 2 phones in their pockets. In Western Europe that is well past half of all mobile phone users.

DISCUSSING THE DIGITAL DIVIDE

So while we are no that topic of Europeans, lets go across the Digital Divide, from the 'Industrial World' where 1.2 Billion relatively affluent humans live, to the other side of the Digital Divide, to Africa, Latin America and less wealthy parts of Asia, where 5.6 Billion people live. That is the part we call the 'Emerging World' (previously known as the Developing World and earlier called the 'Third World') A few words about their lives with mobile.

The penetration rate of mobile subscriptions in the Emerging World is 59% today. While we in the 'Rich World' see now over half of all phones and subscriptions migrated to 3G (Japan became the first country where all phones are now 3G or faster), in the Emerging World only 4% have a fast data connection for their mobile phones using a 3G network. That means most of their 'mobile web' surfing is basic WAP style browsing on very modest phones and on quite slow networks with typically GPRS speeds. Here in the 'West' we are just at the point where a third of all phones are smartphones. Across the Digital Divide, smartphones account only for 8% of all phones - and a significant portion of those are second-hand (mostly Nokia GSM based) smartphones.. This is no market for the iPhone 4 haha..

Talking about second hand phones - well over 300 million of all mobile phones in use in the Emerging World are second hand phones - accounting for 14% of all mobile phones in use in that part of the world. Yes, they want to have cases for their phones but not to prevent a 'Death Grip' haha, its to 'preserve' the phone is pristine condition, as the phone will be probably resold later, and it needs to be in good condition to preserve as much of its original purchase price as possible. Its a very different world, the Emerging World, when we consider how many old abandoned smartphones we have in our desk drawers, that were very modern a couple of years ago.. Perhaps time to recycle some of your old phones?

LETS GET SOME CONTEXT

Now these Billions are confusing numbers. I have to give a bit of context. At the end of 2009 the world had just under 1 Billion automobiles registered and in use. There were a little over 1.1 Billion fixed landline telephones. There were 1.2 Billion personal computers of any kind in use (including desktops, laptops, netbooks and tablet PCs). The world had 1.6 Billion television sets and 2.2 Billion banking account holders. But 3.6 unique humans on the planet has at least one mobile phone and account. They walk around with 4.1 Billion currently used mobile phone handsets, and they support a total of 5 Billion mobile phone accounts that generate telecoms traffic and revenues. This is a gigantic industry that towers over most others.

And that puts the multiple subscription number into vivid context. 1.1 Billion people are not just in love with mobile, they are so addicted or dependent on it, that they already support two separate active mobile phone accounts for themselves, or more. Its not that there are more mobile phone accounts than fixed landline phones by a ratio of more than 4 to 1, its that for every still-active fixed landline phone, there is a person on the planet so in love with mobile, that the person has 2 or more mobile phone accounts. No wonder the fixed landline business is in terminal decline..  And yes, this is the 1B number out of the title. Lets see what else we find in the Big as in Billions numbers.

WHAT DO WE DO WITH MOBILE? OUR THUMBS KNOW

The numbers get far more interesting when we start to examine mobile subscribers and what we do with our favorite gadget. Many call it the 'mobile telephone' ie mostly older users think of mobile as a voice calling gadget. Well that is changing fast. For most users worldwide, the primary need of the mobile phone is SMS text messaging. But what of total use, any time. The statistic of voice call use is astounding. Already today, we are at the point where one in ten mobile phone accounts is never used to initiate voice calls at all! Yes, among all mobile phone subscriptions, the use of voice calls is steadily declining, and is now down to 90%.

Meanwhile how is SMS doing? Not everyone is using it (we are now hitting barriers like illiterate people who are getting mobile phones, so its likely SMS will never reach quite 100% adoption rate) but as the laggard North Americans are finally also getting onboard with SMS use, the world active user base of SMS is past 79% of mobile users. We are at 4 Billion active users of SMS (as Clickatell already reported earlier this year). Think about that for a moment. Email, the most used form of messaging (or in fact most used form of any kind of communication) on a personal computer has only 1.4 Billion users (says Radicati, also confirmed by Netcraft) and 400 million of those were corporate email accounts, 1 Billion were consumer email accounts. But SMS text messaging today reaches an active users base of almost 3 times bigger than email globally. Wow. That is big. Email is 39 years old (the first internet email was sent in the USA in 1971). The mobile phone based SMS text messaging is half that age at 17 years of age (the first person-to-person SMS message from a phone to a phone was sent in Finland in 1993). Email grew 7% in users in 2009. SMS text messaging grew 19% in users in the same year. SMS is younger, is three times bigger, is growing twice as fast (and is a young person's communication medium). The world's most popular data application by far, is SMS. And now we have the mystery of the 4 Billion number, revealed.

Hey, while we are on messaging. So email has 1.4 Billion active users? So its gotta be the second most-used messaging platform on the planet, eh? Not anymore it isn't. A little over a year ago, MMS messaging (multimedia messaging, what we more commonly often think of as 'picture messaging') on mobile shot past email. MMS is only 8 years old, and already has 1.9 Billion active users now in the summer of 2010. MMS grew active user numbers even faster than SMS, at 21% per year. So think about that number. There is 'multimedia' content on a personal computer, our YouTube videos and music etc. The global population of PCs is 1.2 Billion. There is 'multimedia' content on television too. And the total installed base of television sets is 1.6 Billion worldwide. But MMS is also multimedia - can do simple short videos, as well as sounds, pictures and longer messages than SMS - and MMS is used by 1.9 Billion people on the planet! No wonder media brands are eager to learn about MMS in use from newspaper content to mobile advertising. Wow. By the end of the year MMS will pass the 2 Billion active user level. That is huge. But its not my 2 Billion number from the title as it hasn't passed 2 Billion yet. That is coming in this blog.

SNAP SNAP SNAP

So yes, early cameraphones were pretty puny and most 'serious' camera freaks considered them jokes. Now we are getting ever better cameraphones, even the iPhone is up to 5 megapixels (and LED flash, finally) and Nokia's new N8 features 12 megapixels, on real, serious, Carl Zeiss optics, and a 'real' Xenon flash. Cameraphones are growing up. And we consumers are loving them. Not every phone is a cameraphone yet, and not every cameraphone has its camera used - but worldwide the active users base of the camera feature has now passed 3 Billion consumers. Wow. The stand-alone camera business is stagnant, selling about 100 million digital cameras per year. The cumulative shipments of all digital cameras ever made, is about 700 million to now, the active installed base is perhaps half that number. And some of the active digital cameras are with the serious professionals and semi-pro's who easily have several digital cameras (and perhaps even a classic film-based camera too).

So we are now at the point, where when counting active users on the planet, the number people using the camera on a cameraphone, outnumbers the users of any other type of camera, digital cameras and film-based cameras - by 10 to 1. Wow. By far, for most people on the planet, the only camera they have ever used, is one on a phone. And those pictures are not printed, by the way. And most are not sent via email or saved on a PC (remember, the world has only 1.2 Billion personal computers, not all of those are connected to the internet, and many are PCs with people who use more than one, so the actual user base of PCs is far smaller still). Most of those pictures are not sent by MMS either. The most of the pictures snapped on cameraphones, are never removed from the cameraphone, they are only consumed by the person who took the photo, and perhaps shared by showing the phone itself to another person. The second most common way to share pictures is 'side-loading' ie via bluetooth or via microSD memory cards, shared with friends. 4 out of 10 mobile phones in use today has a memory card slot, and 6 out of 10 has bluetooth. That is how pictures move, if they are moved. Most are never moved from the cameraphone which took the snaps..

The world's biggest camera brand is Nokia, which has now over a Billion users. Wow. Canon, Nikon, Minolta, Konica, etc had never even 100 million active users of their camera brands. And Nokia's first cameraphone came 8 years ago. Double-wow. And all stand-alone digital cameras, and all film-based cameras ever made over more than 150 years - has not reached a billion cumulative shipments. Yet Nokia has that in active users. No wonder Nokia obsesses about Carl Zeiss optics and megapixels and real Xenon zooms and even offers cameraphone tripod mounts..

And do remember, even for very modest 'Africa' models of very cheap cameraphones with modest VGA or 1 megapixel basic cameras - a cameraphone will have a color screen. So we have an active users base of 3 Billion people who use a mobile phone for non-voice, non-messaging - but picture/screen related uses. Yes, almost twice the number of people look at the color screen in their pocket, as the total number of television sets on the planet. That was our 3 Billion number.

LETS GO MAD

So I have told you what are the numbers 5 Billion, 4 Billion, 3 Billion and 1 Billion. It leaves us with the 2 Billion number. What might that be? Its a pretty awesome fact too. The world has now passed the point, where two Billion of us have received an advertisement on our mobile phone. (So 'mAd' is mobile advertising obviously). Yes, out of all mobile phone subscribers its 'only' 40% but the gigantic numbers in mobile hide enormous scale. Remember those television sets? 1.6 Billion. And not all TV channels worldwide broadcast advertisements. Yes, 1.2 Billion PCs exist but less than that are connected to the internet, so less than 1.2 Billion personal computers will be able to receive ads via the internet. But 2 Billion of us have received ads on our phones, essentially twice as many as have seen an ad on a PC.

How's that with newspapers? The worldwide circulation of newspapers, free and paid, was under 480 million last year (and newspapers are dropping dead left and right, in the tough economic conditions worldwide). So 4 times more people receive ads delivered into their pockets, than onto their daily newspapers. Wow. Are you impressed with the hot new Apple iPad? It sold 3 million units in its first quarter. Lets assume Apple does that rate for a year, and the world would have about 12 million iPads in use next year at this time. How much bigger is 'real' mobile advertising, delivered to 'real' mobile phones? Try 167 times bigger - this a year from now, if we assume awesome iPad growth rates (mobile advertising reach is 650 times bigger than total installed base of iPads today haha)

Two Billion people on the planet receive ads onto their phones. Thats 40% of all mobile phone subscribers. Its 3 out of every 10 people alive on the planet! So if you thought it was impressive that mobile advertising was the only form of advertising to actually grow revenues in the economic crash when all other advertising forms declined; and last year that mobile advertising grew by 70% in revenues - you ain't seen nothing yet. The world's most personal gadget, the world's most pervasive technology and the world's most beloved device - our mobile phone - is now also a powerful advertising and marketing platform, reaching far further than the PC based internet, or television or newspapers. Like I say, the mobile is the last thing we see before we fall asleep, and the first thing we see when we wake up. Just this past week we learned that in the UK, the youth who sleep with their Blackberries under their pillows, have started to call the BB, the Blackberry, as their 'Baby'. Sleeping with the Baby. Yes. BB. Baby. Blackberry. Pretty cool.

For anyone wanting to refence the numbers. All numbers, facts and stats mentioned in this blog, that was not separately credited, is based on the TomiAhonen Almanac 2010, where obviously some stats have been now updated for August 2010 levels. So please feel free to reference any of the numbers mentioned here and provide a link to this blog if you want. You do not need to ask permission to republish any of the stats or facts in this blog.

A COUPLE OF PLUGS

First, I want to mention the podcast we do monthly with Peggy Ann Salz at the M-Search Groove blogsite. My monthly podcast is about the latest stories related to the statistics of the mobile industry. Its a short nice peppy chat with Peggy about whats hot in mobile, so if you want more on the numbers of the industry (and its free) this is a good place to visit monthly.

Then we have our 7th Mass Media course at Oxford University again coming up in mid October, in Oxford, England. The course is only 2 days in length, an 'executive' course with the media and mobile focus, looking a lot at the consumers, the media, the advertising etc plus obviously 7th Mass Media special issues, like the myths in mobile, and the unique benefits we have in mobile to deliver services that even other digital platforms like the PC based internet, digital TV, DVDs etc cannot deliver. The course lecturers are David Cushman, Alan Moore and me, and the course runs Oct 12-13. If you wanted to 'really' know this industry, this is the ultimate course with us, the three authors who have together published probably more on these topics than anyone else haha. Please see the Oxford University website for course outline and more info including booking info.

For those who want a 2 page handy guide guide on the main numbers for the mobile industry, please remember my free 'Cheat Sheet' is always available. To get the pdf file emailed to you, just send me an email to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com.

And for those who want a more thorough set of stats and numbers and charts and facts on the mobile industry, the TomiAhonen Almanac 2010 is the best value at only 9.99 Euros, giving you 184 pages with 84 charts and tables, with all the facts you ever wanted to know about mobile today, from handsets to networks to consumers to services to apps to revenues to profits to the digital divide. Best of all, the pdf format eBook/mBook is formatted for the small screen, so you can carry all the industry numbers in your pocket anywhere, right on your smartphone (or laptop, Kindle, iPad etc). To see sample pages including several of the actual tables and charts, see the ordering pages for the TomiAhonen Almanac 2010 (this Almanac is not sold anywhere else, not on Amazon or any other bookseller)

Comments

[cycnus]

Wow Tomy,

Thanks again for this interesting fact. Lately, you really have a lot of free time :).

Anyway, I was wondering how hard the fix line got hit by mobile phone. I know lots low income family who had disconnect their fix line when the parent (husband and wife) both got mobile phone, and the kids share the 1 mobile phone. And not to mention that several high income family who used to have 2+ phone line, already cut the phone line to 1 only.

I also wondering how big the public phone got hit? From income perspective and also the number of public phone on the street.

thanks for this wonderful stats.

[vvaz]

@cycnus

Land line operators are usually the same as mobile operators. That is just moving money from one pocket to the other.

Public phones were never (or at least for looong time) profitable. That was just some sort of tax on land line operators (usually monopolies) by governments to provide people who couldn't afford land line access to phone.

[Vasily]

Could anyone - maybe, the author himself - tell me who are these 'active users'? I noticed that these 'active users' are mentioned regularly in this blog and I always wondered who they are.

I mean, how active a person should be to be counted as an 'active MMS user'? Send/receive one MMS per day? Per week? Per month? Per subscription, maybe? Or they just bought a phone that could send an MMS?

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi cygnus, vvaz and Vasily

Thanks for the comments. Will respond to each individually as usual

cygnus - thanks. Haha, free time, me? No, not really, but there is the synergy of a couple of book projects, so as I draft a chapter to the book, its easy to take part of that into a new blog article haha..

About fixed line business. yeah, the world hit a peak of 1.25 Billion fixed landlines and now we are under 1.15 Billion. The phenomenon of homes with no fixed line but using only mobile phones was first observed in Finland (I happened to see one of the world's first stats to indicate it, in internal stats when I was working for Elisa/Radiolinja/Helsinki Telephone in Finland early in my career - so I'm probably the world's first expert to have talked about it in public haha). Finland became the first advanced industrialized country where more than half of homes that once had a fixed landline, had abandoned it for mobile only. Obviously a separate trend happens in the less developed countries - including Eastern Europe - where often the landline was never very widely spread and mobile is the only connection.. The EU average for abandoning home landline went past 30% a couple of years ago. I have kind of lost interest in the stat now haha, its getting so 'old news' haha..

Payphones haha, thats actually one of my stories now, as Finland became the first country to extinguish all payphones.

vvaz - that is only partly true, yes, usually the incumbent landline operator was also one of the first mobile operators. In many markets those have separated - look at O2 and BT in the UK for example - so we have former monopoly fixed landline operators that are now 'without' a mobile network. Then we get the 'new challengers' in the fixed landline business that were very popular in the 1990s, the long distance and international call operators like say MCI in the USA and Tele 2 in many European markets. They (pure fixed) operators are totally struggling today haha... Then their answer is to go into mobile (like Tele 2 or like Sprint for example)

Vasily - great question. It depends by service but yes, 'active user' typically means the mobile subscriber has used that service at least once in the past 30 days. That is how MMS and SMS active users are defined, for example. Good question. I should mention it from time to time on the blog, as there no doubt are many others who wonder about the same thing.

Thank you all for the comments

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Steven Hoober]

Does anyone know how many mobile subscriptions are used for embedded systems? Like, industrial machinery, or scientific experiments, or vehicles or other things that use it to send SMSs with their position, or "the machine has stopped" errors or whatever.

I see a fair number of these, but totally anecdotally. I have no idea how many there actually are. I sorta wonder if it's enough to matter, and if not now if it will eventually be a big percentage.

[cycnus]

@Steve,

Taken from this blog...
I think the number were 5.0 billion - 4.1 billion = 900 million

[cycnus]

@Tomi,

Thanks for the answer. I'm still confused though.
You said that the EU abandoning fixed line is 30%, and I think I saw somewhere that the US abandoning fixed line rate is 50%, but your number only went down from 1.25billion to 1.15 billion.

Anyway, still in communication area, but not mobile, I also see that skype might also kill fixed line. I know several office have ditch around half of their fixed line when mobile phone revolution started, and they ditch another half (of the half) when skype enabled device (without computer) start to appear.

I was wondering if the public phone were gone, how people in finland called for help if the cell phone battery were out?

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Steve and cygnus

Steve - the reply from cygnus makes sense but is not correct. That is not to be inferred from the numbers. The 5 Billion number is total subscriptions, whether humans or machines. The unique user number is humans. There are two types of non-human subscription numbers, one for laptop PC connections (3G data cards, dongles etc) and the other for 'telematics' connections such as reading electricity meters, gas meters, etc, and various remote control uses, like water irrigation via GSM controls etc. The numbers are in the low hundreds of millions. Some analysts have published some such numbers from time to time. I have not given such info on this site. I do have some further breakdowns of data uses of mobile phones in the TomiAhonen Almanac 2010.. Thats all I can tell you here.

cygnus - thanks for replying to Steven, and that was a very 'reasonable' interpretation but obviously as you can see from my reply to Steven, it wasn't actually true. Sorry.. Thanks for trying :-)

About the household rate. The latest numbers I have seen for the USA were far less than that, maybe you want to double-check the numbers. It may be for some segment, like maybe the 'youth' or 'first time home-owners' but not for the total population, nowhere near half have abandoned the landline in the USA.

As to global fixed line decline - the problem is that the phenomenon started from the smallest countries like those in Scandinavia, and the number of households if obviously far less than the total population. Meanwhile the fixed landline penetration rate started to decline in Europe, it was still growing in Asia and Latin America and Africa, so the fall would be far bigger from 1.25B if there was not more new growth in the Emerging World markets (also in Eastern Europe, remember).

About public phones vs dead batteries - I have been in that situation far more than once, that when I needed a payphone, and got to one, it was vandalized and did not function. I am pretty sure the total incidents of a failed payphone was far more prevalent in situations of real emergencies, than that of every person having their phone with a dead battery haha..

BTW, I keep telling everybody, go take a picture of yourself IN a phone booth the next time you walk by one, especially if its one of those old-fashioned 'house' style phonebooths with a door - as your grandkids will not believe you when you tell them when we were young, we used to have houses built just for telephones haha...

Thank you for the comments

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Rohit]

I live in Hong Kong currently, but hail from Bombay and also occasionally live in Boston. The greatest decline of fixed lines has been in India.

Mobile phone are getting ridiculously cheap. A Blackberry in India costs me 400 Indian rupees per month. In Hong Kong, getting a Blackberry from PCCW costs me 600HKD/month. That is just one example. In India, now, every conceivable person has a mobile phone (Including my milkman...the same guy who used to deliver milk to my house when I was kid). My milkman now has sends SMS's, and takes pictures with his Nokia cameraphone. In a couple of ways, India even outdoes Hong Kong in mobile phone usage:

- More alerts by SMS (Check in on flights by SMS)
- Mobile Banking (I don't think I can do mobile banking on my HSBC account in HK...right?)

The land line is dying in India simply because it wasn't there (in a big way) to begin with. Mobile phones are cheaper, and ofcourse, mobile.

In developed countries, like the US and Hong Kong, fixed lines will die a slower, more painful death. But, they will die. Perhaps...in 15 years. Perhaps.

Also, I'd just like to say that I've been following this blog for years, and this is probably my first comment. Now, if only countries could standardise frequencies so that my E71 from Hong Kong would work on 3G in Boston...alas.

[cycnus]

@Tomi,

I thought the number subtraction is as easy as ABC. LOL.

@Rohit,

New Nokia, such as N8,E7,C7 have 5 band of 3G, and it cover most (if not all) frequency around the world. It's just like 4 GSM band cover 100% of GSM frequency.

And the price of BB in Hongkong seems very high to me. In Indonesia the price of full BB service (Internet + Chat + etc) is only about US$9/month. It's darn cheap....

[vvaz]

@Tomi

Trend with number of fixed landlines growing up until lately can be explained in countries less developed than Western Europe but better than India for example (eg Eastern Europe) can be explained by Internet.

Until last year (or even this) to have access to Internet cheaply in your house (especially broadband) you had to have fixed landline. Only in last year prices of mobile internet skydived. Contrary to landlines there are still caps to download and upload but I think they will be abolished completely in next 2-3 years and there will be no reason to have fixed landline at all.

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