So the Reality Check on Apple's iPhone Complaints Numbers and Dropped Calls

I really thought the iPhone Antennagate was over Friday. Now thanks to Apple's dumb move to antagonize all rivals, already 5 handset manufacturers have had reason to jump in and point out they don't build antennas outside the phone cases, they don't need cases to fix antenna problems and they don't have death grip problems. So Apple also said on Friday that the problems with the iPhone have been totally blown out of proportion. It certainly sounded reasonable, when Apple said only 0.55% of iPhone 4 users had called Apple to complain about the Death Grip.

So Tomi, what is the truth about these Apple claims. Lets take those numbers apart and see what they mean.

THE COMPLAINTS OF 0.55%

Apple said 0.55 % of iPhone 4 users have called to complain about the antenna problems. Across 3 million sold iPhones, that is 16,500 people who have called Apple to complain. So my first immediate screaming observation is that this is perceived as a connection problem - the network connection was dropped, a call was dropped. Who do you call to complain about it? The first point of complaint will be the mobile operator (AT&T etc)

But yeah, 16,500 people have called Apple to complain. Is that a big number or small? Remember a car maker called Toyota? They had this nasty problem earlier this year, called 'unintended acceleration' which seemed to trouble several Toyota and Lexus models. It was really big in the news, as 52 people were killed in accidents involving those vehicles. How many total complaints have there been about Toyota and Lexus venicles in America in the full duration of that problem, from January to June? According to the US highways safety board, the NHTSA - the total number of complaints about Toyota and Lexus vehicles was 1,500. Thats it. Over six months, its an average of 8 per day.

Now fast forward to July of 2010. Apple says that in 22 days, they have received 16,500 complaints about iPhone Death Grip! Thats 750 per day! This is nearly 100 times more complaints daily, than the most famous consumer product failure in recent memory! Is Apple's problem 'real' or is it 'imagined'? Is it trivially small, or is it enormous? Obviously it is one of the biggest consumer product failures in recent memory. And by a mile, the worst phone launch. These 16,500 complaints were generated in the first 22 days, where it will easily take many days for a consumer to notice the problem - then to observe it is a 'pattern' rather than a one-time random event - and then to go call AT&T first, and then after those moments to turn to Apple and call. The real problem is FAR bigger than this what Apple now kindly reports to us.

How does that compare with the industry. HTC has provided its complaints level of the smartphone Apple mentioned in its press conference, the HTC Desire/Legend/Nexus One. How many complaints? Try 0.016%. Or one complaint per 6,250 phones.

Meanwhile Apple who tries to say everybody has the same problem, also told us that 20% of iPhone 4 buyers had a case or band. These won't be able to experience the problem. How bad is Apple's problem. The 0.55% is not from 100 phones, you have to remove the 20% who have the case. So its from 80 phones. So Apple has one complaint call per 145 iPhone 4 models sold!

Is this a fair comparison? As HTC says, Apple has 35 times more complaints than HTC. And HTC's product has been on the market for 9 months, so there is plenty of time for buyers to examine the product and find out all possible problems - still only one complaint per 6,250 smartphones. If we assume HTC has sold 3 million of those devices (to keep the math the same as the iPhone, probably HTC has sold less than this number) - that would be 480 complaints in total over 9 months, or 2 complaints per day.

In just 3 weeks of use, Apple owners have already found so much of a problem, 1 in 145 will call Apple to complain. And yeah, it is 750 complaints per day!. Apple problem is nearly 400 times worse than that of HTC's smartphones.

DROPPED CALLS 1 OUT OF 100 MORE THAN 3GS

Apple said its dropped call ratio is 1 per 100 calls 'worse than 3GS' on AT&T's network. We do not have the 3GS drop call ratio on AT&T, but from the FCC Report from this May, we know AT&T's total dropped call percentage, which is 5 calls out of 100. The iPhone 3GS will be in that range, more or less around 5 calls per 100. And now we know iPhone 4 has 1 more dropped call per 100.

So we have the number on a rough level, that 3GS drops 5 calls and iPhone 4 drops 6 calls per 100. So, first of all, we know the iPhone 4 has 20% more dropped calls than 3GS. Secondly we know that the iPhone drops one out of every 16.7 calls made on average, across all AT&T customers. That is a very large number. And then we also know, when we use CTIA average call minute volumes and average call length statistics, that the average US mobile phone owner makes 6.2 calls per day. So now we know that the average iPhone 4 owner will experience a dropped call every 2.5 days or almost 3 dropped calls per week.

The problem of iPhone 4 dropped calls is VERY significant, and the typical AT&T customer will experience a dropped call with the iPhone 4 every few days on average. The problem is 20% worse than with the previous iPhone. This is very significant and will of course be noticed by many users.

For Apple to suggest the problem is trivial, and to blame the press for sensationalizing this issue - is totally uncalled for. The problem is huge, it is 100 times worse than Toyota's problems; is 400 times worse than HTC's - where Apple very unprofessionally tried to deflect their own problem - and it is so much worse than previous iPhone owners, that typical iPhone ownes experience it several times per week - and loyal Apple owners find 20% more dropped calls with the iPhone 4 than with the 3GS.

This is the truth of the iPhone complaints and dropped calls. Lets be honest about it, Steve Jobs. Don't try to hide from the facts or blame other handset makers. No other handset maker has taken this crazy design option of putting the antenna around its casing. No other handset creates a Death Grip problem in usual ways to hold a handset - like Nokia said, they test their phones on both right-handed and left-handed users, and they tend to have 2 antennas, one on the top of the phone and another on the bottom - specifically to prevent dropped calls almost whatever way you try to hold the phone. And no other phone needs an optional case to prevent dropped calls.

The problems are real. You admitted the problems are real and that you knew of them (and that you are trying to fix them). But you won't get away with attempting to claim these are trivial numbers, or that the same problem infects other smartphones. As Consumer Reports clearly reported - the Death Grip is a problem unique to Apple, that stems from its unconventional antenna design.

By the way the first serious casualty has already happened. The South Korean exclusive carrier of the iPhone - KT - which sold 1 million iPhones so far since November, has now said they will delay their iPhone 4 launch by up to 2 months, to give the device enough time to test it thoroughly.

And the bad news is coming in also from the first consumer survey. IDC interviewed Americans on Friday, and found that two thirds of existing iPhone owners will delay their iPhone 4 purchase because of this problem.

Those are the facts about the magnitude of the Death Grip problem. Antennagate could have been solved Friday. Now it has returned, and the story is getting worse by the hour.

Comments

[Dardano]

I'm holding out too Tomi, I won't buy an iPhone 4 until they have a physical fix for the antenna. Having a case around it so I can make a call ain't gonna cut it, not at that price rage anyway. How did they get a license to sell this thing? Doesn't the government test those phones for proper functionality??? I think all governments should cancel its licenses to Apple until they fix the antenna design, don't you think?

[Peter Cranstone]

Waner Von Braun said it correctly... "you can recover from a production flaw, but never from a design flaw". Apple has a design flaw and they knew it before it shipped (when has Apple shipped a case for a phone). My advice is to wait for the next phone.

[Chris MacDonald]

I love the 2 iPhone 4's we bought for the family, no perceived problems. If I were the experiencing these problems you bet I would be the first one to complain. Design flaw suggests to me there is an inherent problem that impacts everyone, or am I not understanding the subtlety of the complaint? To the .55%, if the complaint translates to a real issue, Apple should provide relief or a return. And I appreciate that some people will only purchase a product that has no perceived flaws whatsoever, that's their choice. But the story that is buried here are the vast majority of happy customers, like me. Not a fanboy, just someone who is happy with his purchases.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Dardano, Peter and Chris

Thanks for the comments

Dardano - yeah, I think there are now many who think like you (wait until there is a fix) which means the Apr-June quarter is gone (won't affect that) but July-Sept quarter will be severely hit by all those who now delay their iPhone 4 purchase. It will show in the current quarter numbers. Then for the Christmas Quarter, the iPhone 4 is no longer that hot or new, many who now want the iPhone 4 (who are not loyal iPhone customers) can be swayed by 60 Android devices, a dozen Nokia premium phones, half a dozen Blackberries, the first few MS Phone 7 devices, perhaps a new Palm etc...

Peter - totally true and yes, clearly Apple knew but decided to ship with the flaw. It came to hurt them - but seriously, it was pretty close - if Consumer Reports hadn't called them on it, Apple might have gotten away with it..

Chris - it has been verified, so there is a legitimate design flaw that Apple itself admits (they were aware of the severe drop of signal if you held the phone in the Death Grip). But that alone won't cause your call to end. You also have to be in a relatively weak network signal area, else the signal strength will decline but the connection will not be broken. So if you tend to be in good network areas, you will never experience the problem. But for example Jonathan JMac MacDonald who was an early blogger about the Death Grip (And is a big Apple fan) has his iPhone 4 in Britain and has been unable to replicate the Death Grip problem.. You may be lucky. Clearly one in 16 calls made in the USA on AT&T are dropped by the iPhone 4. That is a huge number. And the problem is 20% worse than previous iPhones, far worse - as Apple's network connectivity problem is getting worse over time, not getting better. Like Steve Jobs said, they preferred to do the style and good looks, over the excellence of antenna design (Nokia made a statement that their design philosophy is the opposite, when there is a technical conflict, Nokia will prefer connectivity to esthetics - them being the 'Connecting People' company haha)

Now consider this possibility - you find yourself in a new surroundings out of no fault or choice of your own. Lets say your wife joins a community group that meets at a church, or your daughter takes up ballet or your boss sends you to a project for 6 months at your other office or something like that.

And when you get there in September - you experience continuous Death Grip problems. Because in that region the network is weak and now always when you switch hands on a phone call, you accidentially cut off the other person. Or you try to answer the call when it rings in your pocket, but disconnect the call - where the other person mistakenly thinks you've deliberately disconnected the call - etc. You'd be furious. And that is what the evidence is telling us. It affects all iPhone 4's but you have to be in bad network areas to experience it. And that scenario could happen to you (or your daughter or wife or parent or whoever happens to have one of hte family iPhone 4's).

You'd be livid. You'd hate it that Apple didn't tell you. And you'd be ultra-annoyed to see that the older Blackberries and Motorolas and LGs etc all have no Death Grip problem..

That is what is going on. Like I write, the prudent iPhone 4 owner will go replace the current phone anyway with the upgraded/fixed iPhone 4b when that is released (replaced for free, ie return the iPhone 4 before Sept 30)..

Thank you all for writing

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Timuke]

Excellent analysis. Thank you for bringing some sanity into this debacle.

[Dardano]

This is the best present Apple could have given to the competition! Apple dropped the ball and that's all RIM, Nokia, Android have been waiting for.

[Enyibinakata]

Tomi,

Good to see you are back to your senses now. I was quite puzzled to read your thoughts on Jobs' Friday conference - you condoned the sham, overlooked the defamation of competitors, the spin and smoke and mirrors etc. Guess you were too excited about the weekend - thank God for Monday mornings :o)

[Jason Bowers]

Tomi, you make some assumptions in your math regarding the 3GS dropped calls that may or may not be true. There is also the statistical trick of taking a change of 5 out of 100 to a 6 out of 100 situation (what a normal person would experience as a 1% change) and removing the 100 to make in a 20% increase. This is true, but I think if someone makes 100 calls and 5 are dropped then makes another 100 calls and 6 are dropped, it doesn't feel like a 20% increase, it feels like a 1% increase. I also wonder if the number of complaints against this signal loss Apple experiences aren't higher than HTC's because there is a significant amount of publicity about the Apple situation? Finally, could we all stop using automobiles as metaphors for cell phones? I mean seriously, what does Toyota's fatal acceleration situation have to do with dropped calls? What information can we glean from comparing the rate of complaints between these two completely different situations? Maybe we should compare it to the rate of complaints about safety on deepwater oil drilling operations...

[Ian Mackay]

Tomi, when you write "The problem is huge, it is 100 times worse than Toyota's problems" I think you mean to say "the volume of complaints is 100 times larger". I don't think anyone in their right mind would claim that a dropped call on your cellphone is "worse" than the brakes on your car failing!

You seem to think that there will be a revised model later this year. Indeed, in your previous article, you wrote "Apple has now admitted the problem, apologized for it, and promised a technical solution to the hardware, expecting it sometime in the Autumn, around the end of September." In fact, Apple have not at this point committed to a technical solution - they have merely stated that free cases will be available until the end of September, and that they will review the situation then.

I really appreciate that you take the time to offer your views here, but I think it's very important that you base your criticisms on confirmed information!

[wansai]

Hi Tomi, I just saw a news report on Bloomberg where an analyst stated similar number break downs for htc vs iphone 4. 1 complaint per several hundred for iphone vs 1 complaint for several thousand for htc.

[Elia Freedman]

I thought I posted this yesterday. I came back to see if you responded. I believe you are comparing Apples to oranges, no pun intended. Apple is the center of their device. Customers call them. HTC is not. Customers call the carriers for almost every other mobile phone. The correct comparison, I would think, is the combination of manufacturer and carrier call complaints. But we don't know that data and therefore cannot make an appropriate comparison.

[dining table]

I was planning to buy new cell phone. I have decided to buy an iphone 4. That phone can do almost anything that a computer can do. I just wish that iphone 4 don't have any problem.

[KangWei Khoo]

For me, the scandal is that "Apple has invested more than $100 million building its advanced antenna design and test labs. Our engineers have logged thousands of hours designing and testing iPhone 4 in these state-of-the-art facilities" and yet come out with Antennagate. How could a company and a leader so meticulous with details allowed an "error" this big to slip through their quality control? unless they are banking so much on their popularity and fan-base who'll gladly close an eye to this problem

[foxtrot]

This is a totally valid report good job.

I was watching the press conference and saw the number 0.55% and I thought it was a HUGE number. so I googled .0055 X 3,000,000 = 16,500 and your article came up. Awesome.

Apple needs to give up and take responsibility. But without balls they cant.

[LvB]

Jason Bowers:
"I also wonder if the number of complaints against this signal loss Apple experiences aren't higher than HTC's because there is a significant amount of publicity about the Apple situation?"

I would argue that because of that publicity, Apple is getting fewer complaints because people already know what the problem is. No need to call to find out what's possibly wrong with the phone or inform Apple about the problem.

[Redditch tyres]

Definitely agree with what you stated. Your explanation was certainly the easiest to understand. I tell you, I usually get irked when folks discuss issues that they plainly do not know about. You managed to hit the nail right on the head and explained out everything without complication. Maybe, people can take a signal. Will likely be back to get more. Thanks.

[stainless steel cladding]

I hope everything will be fine and Apple will resolve the issue as soon as possible.A lot of people wanted to have iphone and it's sad to hear the negative impact of the issue.

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[Polly]

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[white iphone 4]

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