Lets talk about inputs, touch screens and QWERTYs and T9s and hybrids.
We heard earlier this week that Motorola has found 30% of consumers are not willing to consider a phone that is a pure touch screen phone. This number is growing. A few years ago it was mostly only older teenagers and young adults, of whom about half (in the USA, 42%) were so addicted to mobile messaging, that they could send messages 'blindly' ie with the phone hidden in their pocket or behind their back or under the table. That portion (heavily SMS-addicted, tactile text input obsesed) was only about 13% of the total population a few years ago by my measurements worldwide - ie roughly half of the 16-30 year old segment of the total population. But the 'I must have my physical text input' customer segment is growing, and it is now 30% according to Motorola.
SO TO START WITH NUMBERS
Yet statistics also tell us that the sales of touch screen phones are growing faster than QWERTY keypads, and in the top price ranges, in the smartphones - touch screens now outnumber QWERTY inputs according to Canalys. Their numbers tell us that of the 'primary input' of smartphones now Touch Screens are twice the size of QWERTY, while QWERTY are twice the number of basic T9 among smartphones. Both QWERTY and Touch screen keep growing, but in this price range, touch screens grow much faster. I wish Canalys would include the hybrid number (how many have both QWERTY and Touch, because obviously that is a significant number and we don't know where they allocate those. In 2009 NPD told us that 20% of all phones with advanced inputs had both Touch Screen and keyboard. It seems to me, that this form of input is becoming more popular, not less).
But that is the top range of phones. Among all phones, QWERTY is still the primary form of advanced input. I have not seen public domain numbers recently for both, but NPD gave US numbers for 2009, where 26% of all phones had a touch screen input and 35% had a QWERTY input. My company, TomiAhonen Consulting has been tracking these numbers globally, of course, and I'm happy to provide to you my company's current breakdown for end of 2009 is as follows:
All mobile phones sold in 2009 by input method
Touch screen input only ..................11%
QWERTY input only .......................13%
Combo input Touch and keypad .........3%
Basic T9 keypad only .....................73%
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting 2010
(As people have been asking for that number, I will be adding it to next year's TomiAhonen Almanac. The current 2010 Almanac did not have the number as the total number was still so small in 2009 compared to other features of phones that have far larger numbers like color screen, camera, media player, bluetooth, memory card, etc, which I report in the TomiAhonen Almanac 2010)
These numbers are fairly consistent with the tidbits that are coming out like Gartner telling us 184 million phones sold in 2009 were touch screen, and the Indian government saying they have 9 million 'chatphones' ie locally made cheap QWERTY texting phones, LG reporting they sold 18 million QWERTY phones in 2009 etc. Those proportions (13% pure QWERTY, 11% pure touch, 3% combo) are very similar to NPD numbers and also are in line with how Blackberries outsell iPhones; and how Nokia's E-Series (ie mostly QWERTY) now outsells N-Series (ie mostly touch screens)). RIM is the world's bestselling QWERTY phone maker with the Blackerry selling 17% of all QWERTY based phones worldwide in 2009. Samsung is the world's bestselling touch screen phone brand, selling 21% of all touch screen phones. Apple's iPhone took 13% of all touch screens last year.
Touch screens are the hot story now. They also 'seem' more 'modern' and touch screens allow bigger screens in classic candybar phone form-factors (remember, the iPhone is also considered candybar form factor, ie it is not a 'flip phone' or a slider..). So any web browsing and screen-intensive experiences like watching pictures, videos and playing videogames are all experiences more vividly with larger screens. So lets explore this a bit deeper.
We had basic T9 keypads from 1979. It was the only way to control our phones and early mobile web surfing was even driven by the numeric keypad, the numbers on the keypad offered shortcuts to various links on the WAP page. We got the first full QWERTY keypad in 1996 with the Nokia 9000 Communicator. A cheaper and simpler QWERTY layout was introduced by Blackberry and most QWERTY keypads today are of the 'Blackberry style' including many Nokia E-Series phones. Then we had the touch screens. There were modest attempts to introduce touch screens before the iPhone, but we can say that it was not until the iPhone in 2007, that touch screens became commercially viable and popular among users. If it took QWERTY 14 years to reach 16% of all phones sold, and only 3 years for touch screens to reach 14% of all phones sold, it is clear to see the hottest idea in phone inputs today is touch screen.
AGAIN I THINK ITS SIMILAR TO CARS
I do think we have a good analogy from cars, and from PCs. Cars analogy first. The earlier, simpler and more 'labor intensive' way to control the speeds of a car, was a manual transmission. And then a newer, more user-friendly, simpler-to-use, but more expensive way to manage the gears of the car, was the automatic transmission. And a kind of hybrid solution is now the high end automatic transmissions which allow the driver to select the gears, most typified by premium sports cars like Ferraris and Aston Martins having the 'Formula 1" style 'flappy paddle' automatic gearbox operated while holding onto the steering wheel, like a racecar driver...
So which is better? If you 'hate to drive' or are not very well coordinated, then definitely the simple use of an automatic gearbox is far better than attempting to learn to coordinate the clutch pedal and gear lever movements to change gears dozens of times in typical driving situations. If you are a 'real driving enthusiast' like say the reviewers of the Top Gear car program, then they will always prefer a 'real' manual gearbox for real driving pleasure, and most sports-oriented luxury cars tend to offer the manual transmission as an option for this reason. But globally there is a clear gradual decades-long trend where cars are shifting from manual gearboxes to automatics. In the USA most cars sold are automatics and Europe is well on that path too. In cars the automatic option tends to be the more expensive way to do the gear selection (vs manual gear shift) and thus cheap basic cars tend to be sold with manual gearboxes, which is of course the majority of cars sold worldwide, where many of the emerging world markets are the big market opportunities for cars, like China, Brazil, India, Russia etc.
Meanwhile we have another similar shift in the PC world. Originally the PC was controlled by the alphabetic keyboard layout taken from the typewriter (that is where we get our QWERTY style of layout for the keys). The PC added a numeric keypad to the side - early PCs were very heavily used in the accounting and business uses where numeric entry was very important, and the keyboard added the function keys (on top of the alphabetic keys, F1 through F12) which were an early way to offer advanced controls to complex computer programs like WordPerfect. That resulted in the 'classic' 101 key keyboard of the IBM PC and its compatible siblings. Our current laptop computers have keyboards that attempt to mimick that 101 key layout with some size-related compromises (the numeric keypad being 'embedded' into the alphabet keys of UIO, JKL, M<> for example.
Imagine how cumbersome internet surfing would be today if we didn't have the mouse, and had to surf the web using the keyboard only. Or worse, try to edit photographs without a mouse, only using a keyboard. It would be hopeless.
So in 1984 it was Apple who brought us the Macintosh which did change everything about the PC, in terms of how it was used. Among its many innovations, the Mac introduced us to the mouse as an alternate input method. And today all PCs have some kind of mouse input.
But the mouse didn't kill off the keyboard. The mouse and ever more clever on-screen navigation, and context-sensitive menus with programs, did make the function keys almost obsolete but even though the mouse is a great way to navigate websites (or edit photographs), we still use the alphabetic keys of our PC keyboard very happily to do our emails, our blogs, our Twitter comments etc.
Now we are witnessing another dawn of perhaps another era, with the iPad. It has no physical keyboard at all, but offers a virtual keyboard. I am not convinced this will replace all keyboards but it may well become one major alternate way to control our computers.
PHONE INPUTS COMPARED
The three major types of inputs for mobile phones have their own merits each. The T9 form is very simple and cheap. If the user really does not need internet use or any major uses beyond voice and basic text entry, a T9 keypad is perfectly fine. Remember that 74% of all mobile phone subscribers on the planet do NOT use the internet on their phone in any way. If they have a camera on the phone, they won't do significant editing of the pictures, and basic navigation of an image (ie 'zoom' etc) can be done very comfortably with the T9 keys. It would be foolish to attempt to force these customers to accept very expensive touch screen phones to replace their basic phones, before they express an interest and willingness to migrate their phone behavior to more advanced features.
T9 has another benefit, it is very easy to learn. If you have never learned the bizarre order of keys on a QWERTY keyboard - remembering the keys are not in an alphabetic order, so new users have to 'learn' where the given alphabetic keys are - and early use of such a keyboard can be slow - the T9 is very quick to learn. All keys are in alphabetic order and you only have to memorize the location of 8 keys to have the full alphabet. There are many teenagers who are faster at typing on a T9 keypad than they can on a full PC keyboard with its full-size 'comfortable' and dedicated QWERTY keys. This may seem odd, but remember, these are the same kids who can master a videogame with the simpler controls of a Playstation keypad than using the same game on a PC keyboard or for example a 'real steering wheel' for a driving game etc. Simple has its benefits.
QWERTY FOR THE HEAVY SMS CROWD
So then came QWERTY. The early heavy users of QWERTY were wireless email users, as the early QWERTY phones were almost all smartphones, and tended to be very expensive ones. These were used often for email. That then migrated to SMS use and now also for various social networks like Twitter and Facebook, and of course instant messaging users, in particular those using Blackberry messenger. This is what that Motorola finding is all about. Roughly speaking half of older teenagers and young adults are so addicted to mobile phone messaging, that they send over 50 messages per day (a third send more than 100 per day from the USA to UK to South Korea) and at that level, users become so powerful and fast messaging users on their phones, that they learn to send messages blindly, almost without thinking. Many heavy users are able to carry on two separate SMS conversations on two phones using both hands, simultaneously.
These are the seriously heavy users of mobile, and I would say these are similar to the 'serious' drivers of cars, who insist on a manual gearbox even on their premium BMW or Audi. They want to be in full control of their driving experience. So understand this point. QWERTY is not demanded by wireless email users, or of corporate/enterprise business phone users. They could very well adapt to virtual keyboards on touch screen phones. But the current QWERTY addiction is directly related to SMS and mobile instant messaging addiciton of the youth and young adults. While the input method is 'older' than touch screen, and is not as versatile as touch screens can be, for the use of messaging, QWERTY is far better. Like a racing car driver, who wants to be in control of shifting the gears. And then, consider the magic of mobile messaging. Mobile messaging is powerful not only because it is fast, it is powerful even more, because it is so secretive. You can send messages secretly in class. You can send messages secretly from the dinner table, with your hand hidden in your pocket. If you are a teenager and make a call, your mom or dad, or your brother or sister, might be listening to what you are talking about. But with SMS and mobile instant messaging, nobody gets to 'eavesdrop' of to 'snoop' in your communications. This is FAR MORE important than the 'optimal' internet surfing experience.
TOUCH SCREEN
The touch screen, as finally solved by Apple iPhone with the multitouch capacitive screen technology, has now enabled convenient internet surfing on a small screen phone, without a stylus, without a mouse, and without cumbersome keypad navigation tricks. The 'mobile web' use has experienced steady growth since NTT DoCoMo of Japan launched the first full intenet service on mobile in 1999, but the usage was never explosive. Not until the iPhone came along. Today touch screen smartphones, usually combined with all-you-can-eat data plans - are driving internet adoption and use among mobile phone owners. The phenomenon of the App Store and billions of downloads is related to this. It would have been far more subdued if there was no touch screen interface to the iPhone. While the touch screen alone is not as good as the traditional PC with both the full 101 key keyboard and a mouse, the touch screen alone is far better for internet surfing than a keypad or even QWERTY keyboard alone, on a phone.
As we see the mobile internet adoption increasing, that will help drive the demand and appreciation of the touch screen interface.
The touch screen also became the easy way to look at photographs on a phone. Remember again, that for 90% of the population of the planet, who have ever used any kind of camera, the only type of camera they have ever used has been a cameraphone. Don't think of yourself and your luxurious lifestyle who also own a stand-alone digital camera (or if you're older like me, you've also owned many film based cameras). That is a tiny minority of all the camera owners on the planet. The world has now over 2.5 billion cameraphones in use, vs under 250 million stand-alone digital or film based cameras. Touch interfaces are better also for manipulating photos, so as the basic picture editing applications on the cameraphones get better, then here too the users will appreciate the touch screen interfaces to adjust and alter their photos.
The touch screen definitely offers better ways to explore existing pictures but the touch screen is also cumbersome as a camera operation interface. Most touch screen cameraphones offer at least some controls on separate 'dedicated camera buttons' on the side of the case, like the shutter button. But for things like zoom and flash setting and lighting control etc, touch screen controls are a severe compromise when compared to dedicated camera buttons. This is where 'general purpose' cameraphones will be hurt and 'serious' cameraphones will offer more dedicated buttons and controls. Its one reason why 'slider' form factors for advanced cameraphones with touch screens are very viable.
So with cameras its a mixed bag. A pure touch screen is not optimal for taking pictures, but large screens are better for watching pictures and pure touch screens can be excellent for the sharing and definitely touch screens better for exiting photos than non-touch screnes.
The virtual keyboard on the touch screen is also good enough for most users. Remember that even the heavy SMS addicted part of the population is only 30% of all consumers, so we have 70% of the population who are not that bothered. If they need to send a message, the virtual keyboard is definitely 'good enough'. For many who have learned to type of a PC, when 'upgrading' from basic T9 to a good touch screen virtual keyboard like that on the iPhone - they experience a significant increase in typing speed. The virtual keyboard is better than basic T9, and that is most definitely good enough for most typical users.
But the virtual keyboard obivously consumes a large part of the available visible display. That means that the available display is limited, so the users see far less of the messages or twitter feeds or emails or blogs etc that they are reading about and writing to respond to. It is a compromise. The more severe problem comes from 'single handed' operation. Most users of touch screen virtual keypads are not dexterious enough, with very fine-tuned muscle memory, to be able to type on the virtual keypad single-handed. The virtual keypad is designed to be used on a stable surface (like the table at a Starbucks) and with the typing done with both hands. T9 and most QWERTY physical keyboards can easily be operated single-handedly.
This is not a big factor if you are using your phone primarily in a seated situation, like in meetings at the office or in yes, coffee shops and the airport lounge. These are typically not the young addicted users (called 'digital natives'), they are typically the older 'digital immigrant' type of users who are trying to shift their experiences from the PC and internet world into the mobile world. For those who are fully addicted to the phone, they use the phone continuously - young adults will look at their phone more than once every 5 minutees of every waking hour of every day - and will be using the phone while walking. So the user will have other things in the other hand, like the bag with the school books, or a brief case, or an umbrella, or the grocery shopping bag, or perhaps holding the hand of the child on the way back from kindergarden, etc. These users keep using the phone in one hand while they move about in their day, and they will want the ability to fully control the phone single-handedly. A pure touch screen phone will be cumbersome, and at times impossible to use this way.
BOTH INPUTS
Like the flappy paddle 'professional racing driver' control of modern top sports cars, that allow both an automatic transmission and the control by the driver, a phone input where both touch screen and keyboard entry are used, is the ultimate top-of-the-line that answers both needs. It allows totally dedicated keys for keyboard-intensive uses like text entry or camera operation; while including touch screen use for internet surfing and picture viewing. This is the most expensive solution obviously, it means the phone software has to understand both forms and most applications on the phone have to recognize both types of inputs (logically, consistently, intuitively). The input methods will have a lot of overlap, so there is redundancy here that is perhaps even unncessary costs for some users, and the technical solution means the phone will be far larger physically than one with only one or the other.
The form factor means either a severe compromise on the screen size (to maintain candybar form factor) or else a more expensive and bulky design with a flip or slider configuration. A physical keyboard added to a touch screen means that your phone will not be as slim as the current iPhone model for example, and for many that bulkiness is a sign of being old-fashionied. It also adds weight and cost. But inspite of this, I am confident this category will grow to take a far bigger part of the total handset space, because many SMS addicted users will want to 'also' have a big touch screen, and then, perhaps less so, some existing touch screen users will develop a desire to have a dedicated QWERTY keypad as well.
WHAT OF SWYPE
And yes, just like we had the predictive text innovation to try to solve the 'problem' of T9 text input (heavy users tend to turn predictive text off, so its a typical crutch for those who were not born into the digital world), we now have the great idea of Swype, as a solution to allow 'lazy' touch screen text entry, swiping, with approximately the right characters, and Swype will use its intelligence to guess what word you meant. This is another very intelligent solution to solve a problem using automation. Some will like it, others will hate it, just like predictive text. The problem with Swype is that you have to learn how to use it. It doesn't take long to learn but you have to go through that process. Many who have gone through it, say their text entry is lightning-fast and accurate on the touch screens. Fine. My gut says, we won't get everybody to bother to learn a new way. It is a nice crutch, but my guess is that for the heavily addicted texting users, they won't bother. They use so much of the cryptic shorthand of SMS communication culture (and the ever-changing jargon of the youth and pop culture), that they'd need to be constantly updating and correcting the library for Swype. Maybe I am wrong, but we have to see, I am not expecting the world to start to use Swype, but I do see it as a good solution for many who do have a touch-only smartphone and want to get faster typing on it.
WHAT OF VOICE INPUTS?
Yeah. That old story yeah.. I do think that in the long run we'll get to major voice inputs of all of our digital devices. The intelligence of voice recognition is getting better, but its slow going. Note that for most uses of our phones, voice input is actually not optimal. If you are sitting in the Starbucks, how quickly will your neigbors get annoyed if you try to navigate your mobile phone activities (or your laptop or your iPad) using voice inputs. How many times would you get errors of inputs in loud places like the airport or train station. How many times do you want to control your phone quietly - sending a discrete message to your wife from the meeting, that you are running late.. So even if voice inputs were to be perfected (they are nowhere near there yet), then voice inputs are going to be only a partial solution. So think of the user in the car. If you commute to work every day in your car - alone - then it doesn't matter at all to you, if you speak to the phone and it speaks back to you - reading your messages to you etc. But if you are car-pooling and there are 4 colleagues in the same car, it would be pretty impossible for all 4 professionals to use speech controls on their phones in the same confined space of the car. Or consider the train or bus, even more of a hassle.
I do believe we will get ever more clever uses from voice controls - and from text-to-voice reverse uses, of voice as the output (great when driving a car, when you can't take your eyes off the road to read messages, but you can listen to messages if they are read to you). But at least for the near future, next several years, I do not see voice inputs or outputs as the main inputs and outputs of your phone behavior. A growing area yes, but a minor solution to inputs (and outputs), not the 'ultimate' solution. Just look at Star Trek, with their clever talking computers haha, even there the crew regularly had to input commands using the touch screen keyboard entries, where a voice communication would be far more complex than simply touching with your fingers..
THE CASE FOR THE CASE
We do also have the curious case of the case. The iPhone Death Grip antennagate brought to light the issue that many iPhone owners buy their smartphone with a case (and now the official Apple solution to iPhone 4 Death Grip is to give away a free case with a new purchase). This to me was something I never appreciated, as I have never particularly liked cases with my phone(s). I carry my phone in my pocket. But it occurred to me a couple of days ago, that since I use my Nokia E90 Communicator as my primary phone - and it is a 'palmtop' style flip phone (ie wide flip) - that is not suited for most basic cases. A case is most suited for a candybar form factor like on the iPhone. The same is true of many of my past phones like the N93 contortionist phone or the N80 slider, and obviously all my previous Communicators too.
MANY FORM FACTORS TO CONTINUE
In the laptop PC world, the original Toshiba T1000 laptop from 1985 is very clearly the forefather of modern laptops, notebooks and netbooks. There was never a major rival form factor (until now, with the iPad and tablet PCs). Fro 25 years the laptop has held a very standard flip laptop form factor, the big screen on the lid and the full QWERTY keyboard on the bottom part of the flip construction.
In mobile phones we sell numerous popular form factors today. We sell the basic candybars, sliders and flip phones, with T9 inputs, QWERTY inputs and touch screen inputs, or a combination of the above. This reflects the different major types of customers of phones, and the major 'primary uses' of phones today. For some it is primarily an internet access device. For others its primarily a messaging device. For others still it is primarily a camera. And for many older users it is still primarily a (voice) telephone. How you use the phone - and your previous history with other inputs like using a PC or using a Playstation - determines what kinds of inputs you will prefer. There won't be one overriding form factor for phones. Not for many years to come. But expect touch screens to grow the fastest right now, as the phone makers learn from Apple on how to do touch screens well.
Thats my thinking about Touch versus QWERTY today. I am interested in your views and this is obviously an area that is evolving.
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