Now we know who moved my cheese, or half of it - Apple iPhone is stomping

Ok, part of the mystery is now resolved. Apple just announced results and sold 7.4M iPhones in the latest quarter. So half of the mystery is now resolved, of where did Nokia's market share vanish. Half of the market share was gobbled up by the iPhone. RIM has been holding steady with 20% market share as has HTC with 5% market share. Nokia lost massively from 41% to 35% and now we know, Apple picked up half of that, growing from 13% to 16% market share in the latest quarter. Very impressive. Congratulations.

Several related comments. First, iPhone lifetime shipments now have passed 34 million iPhone units since 2007. In terms of the total global installed base of mobile phones, it is nearing 1% of all phones. And of the installed base of smartphones they have about 8%. But the latest quaterly sales, they already stomp ahead at 16% starting to challenge RIM for second biggest smartphone maker (RIM sold between 9.2M and 9.9M smartphones in this quarter, the variance is because RIM quaters end in a odd number of months, so they are always a bit off in their official numbers).

Second, on Apple, remember for any software developer, it is not just the iPhone market share which is important, it is also the iPod Touch, which is essentially the same device without the phone, so most applications work the same. The total installed base of all pocketable OS/X devices by Apple is at 56 M units.

While we are on Apple, it is still disproportionately a US based device. When total iPhone shipments were 30 million, over 10 million were on AT&T network, ie in the USA. The total share of mobile phone subscribers in the Industrialized World that are in the US are only 25%, but 33% of all iPhones were in the US, so bear that in mind if you don't see massive numbers of iPhones in your home market..

Then just a few other remarks. One of the analysts a few days ago, probably was Canalys, but might have been Gartner, said that 40% of all smartphones sold now are touch screen phones. Then the perhaps most interesting stat - RIM CEO said that 80% of all Blackberries currently are sold to the consumer market segment, not the enterprise/business market. Wow. And of Nokia's three lines of smartphones, the enterprise/business oriented E-Series sells 27% of all Nokia branded smartphones, so also Nokia seeing three out of every four smartphones heading to consumer hands.

Makes for interesting times. No doubt part of the rest of the missing cheese is with Google Android phones which are starting to appear in many markets, but they are probably not most of the missing picture. I want to also hear how Samsung is doing with its smartphones, they could well be part of the answer. And the Japanese are gearing up to take the fight to smartphones, we may see some surprises from that land of the rising sun. Cannot count out LG and there can be a surprise lurking among the ZTEs and Sendos and Huaweis and the like. WIll keep you posted. But yes, the majority of the Nokia surprising loss of market share is now revealed - that went to Apple. Good going! That is what we need in this industry, competition. Now, Apple, when can we see more than one model per year? Isnt' it about time to spread your product portfolio?

Comments

[Gibson Tang]

Hi Tomi,

Great insight on the missing Nokia market share. As for Apple spreading it's product portfolio. Don't bet on it as Apple is not in the business of doing such stuff. To do that would introduce device fragmentation which is plaguing every other mobile handset manufacturer.

[kevin]

"Now, Apple, when can we see more than one model per year? Isnt' it about time to spread your product portfolio?"

Apple has two models - 3G and 3GS - still for sale. So obviously, you mean different form factors, as opposed to just different capabilities. And you think Apple needs to do this in order to reach a greater portion of the phone market. So let's look at what I think Apple thinks.

1. Let's start with "cheaper". At $99, there's not much further down to go, and by next June, the 3GS will likely be $99 (the 3G will be retired); someday they'll be at $49. But to really get cheaper, I assume you want a phone that doesn't require an additional data plan. Apple is not going to go there, because it's their view that over the next 5-10 years, billions of people will get a data plan (even those who use it just for voice data because data plans will be all that there is.) A huge billion-plus market is coming to them (and Apple doesn't care about the other billions who want low-margin, commodity phones).

2. Now on to "fashionable". Here, Apple's view is that, in between the annual hardware upgrades, the "fashionable" changes will be done through software, both in new OS releases, as well as in new apps. The iPhone keeps changing on a daily basis because of apps; one can stay fashionable by buying and installing the most "fashionable" apps. I would hope Apple has an OS release, like 3.2 or 3.5, before Dec, though they haven't been that good at interim releases in the past. Having said that, it's possible that they'll be more colors and memory bumps as the sales volume increases, as they did that for the iPod.

3. What about those who want different "sizes" or flip/slider/etc? Apple's view is that reducing the size of the screen or adding a keyboard will fragment the app space (and make the device less usable, not more). A larger "iPhone" is likely coming but it'll be able to run two types of apps - the current 480x320 apps and the larger size apps. Also, its one size is iconic and makes the iPhone immediately recognizable, though this becomes less important over time. (Apple is not interested in the non-smartphone space - i.e., phones that can't run additional apps and don't need a data plan. It's their view that over the next 5-10 years, billions of people will have or want a smartphone because the value of anytime/anywhere data will become obvious.)

Are there other reasons Apple should be spreading their product portfolio?

[alex]

A note from the U.S.A. on "fashioable". Virtually every iPhone user I see has a cover over their device ranging from plain old black to a variety of multicolors and patterns. Also the materials vary providing for different tactile sensations.

[microgaming]

Great post about Apple policies. I don't think they will develop a lot of products though, it is not their usual policy. Their policy is working for now and that's what really matters for them. Why to spread your portfolio if your product is working?

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