Picked this one up via our friends at MobHappy. Just like old analogue TV broadcast systems are being shut down around the world in place of digital broadcast networks, also the inevitable progress of faster cellular networks and their phones is going on. Now we see the first clear sign that the time of second generation digital cellular networks like GSM, TDMA and CDMA are coming to an end, and third generation networks like WCDMA/UMTS and CDMA EV-DO (and faster) will be left standing.
What is the first evidence? They stop selling the older technology. The Japan Electronics and Information Technology Industries Association reports that January 2008 was the first month in Japan, that all new mobile phones for sale in the country were of the third generation (3G) phones or newer (ie HSDPA or 3.5G). This means Japan has stopped selling "old" second generation phones including the "2.5G" (GPRS) and "2.8G" (CDMA2000 1x RTT and EDGE) generations - and for example the current Apple iPhone is a second generation phone .
Note very concretely the difference in appreciating the newer or older technologies. In the USA where the iPhone is still considered a top end phone, in Japan there are no phones of its generation even for sale anymore. And bear in mind, the high speed phones are all color screen cameraphones, what were called high end "smartphones" just a few years ago (now there are plenty of non-smartphone 3G phones obviously). But this goes across the whole range. Thus all new phones, even those aimed at under 10 year old kids in Japan today, are high speed 3G phones faster. (oh, and the first country where this happened a little bit earlier, was South Korea, no surprise?). Read the full story at Yahoo News in article "Japan marks funeral for second generation phones."
The 3G consultant in me smiles broadly today. And they said it can't be done...
2G phased-out just in time for Apple to introduce its 3G iPhone this year in Asia alongside the Olympics in China. :)
At the end of this year, when people look backwards at 2007-2008, they'll see how Apple had strategically aligned its iPhone technology roadmap (3G chips, battery, camera, price) and retail store openings, with an evenly-paced worldwide iPhone rollout that didn't push the company beyond its capabilities.
And other companies will regret that they didn't strike first during these 2 years with a really kick-ass mind-share-grabbing music-playing cellphone when, as you Tomi predicted and reported long ago, that the future was cellphone dominance over other devices (including the iPod).
Posted by: mark | March 30, 2008 at 10:50 PM
Hi mark
Thanks, yes... we agree obviously. I've been wondering about that. Yes, Nokia did try to play the N-95 (and now N-96) in that space, but could have done much more. Where was SonyEricsson the natural musicphone guys - Walkman? Where was their iPhone beater? LG's Prada yes, did some nice splash in that space, but nowhere near enough, and the Armani Samsung, what looked like a baby iPhone, again, why not?
I think the industry was caught in awe of the iPhone, caught off guard, overwhelmed by the "coolness" of the phone. Rather than pounce and fight, they mostly gave up on it, admiring the device and amazed at the long lines etc.
If we really want to say who goofed the most - then that is Motorola. They had all that cooperation work with Apple with the Rokr. So the moment the iPhone was announced, if Moto was clever, they would have gone over all the notes from the Rokr cooperation with Apple, and specifically dug through the Apple side of the meetings with a fine-tooth comb. What went wrong with the Rokr, if Apple was able to then turn that into the iPhone?
Motorola could have released five separate iPhone killers in various price points - by Christmas 2007 - and stolen most of that thunder. Idiots...
Well, its an exciting time, and certainly I can't do a day of work anywhere on the planet, without some discussion about the iPhone, so clearly it has energized the industry...
Thanks for writing
Tomi Ahonen :-)
Posted by: Tomi Ahonen | March 31, 2008 at 04:45 PM
I was reading something else about this on another blog. Interesting. Your position on it is diametrically contradicted to what I read earlier. I am still contemplating over the opposite points of view, but I'm tipped heavily toward yours. And no matter, that's what is so great about modernized democracy and the marketplace of thoughts on-line.
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