The technological & social revolutions bring down the citadel of mass media economics

In 10 years, traditional media as we know it will disappear. Supplanting it will be a new world where everything will be delivered digitally over IP Internet technology. Media will grow so tailored to personal tastes that you'll be able to watch the local high school's semifinals live on your big-screen TV.

This, at least, is what tomorrow looks like in the crystal ball of Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, whose predictions set a forward-looking tone at the Masters of Marketing conference in Phoenix last week.

We have already called it a new socio-economic ecology. So come Steve keep up!!

Read our open letter to Steve Ballmer which explains why this is happening. Many people it seems are running after social networks, because they are the new new Mass Audience.

But is it quite as straight forward as that? Believe me. However whereas in 2005 it all seemed rather cutesy to talk about social networks and engagement today its mainstream Social networks don their platform shoes

Five months after Facebook unveiled its platform initiative, the real arms race isn't among developers who want a piece of the action. Now, it's all about other Web companies looking to replicate Facebook's success.

But as Carlota Perez points out there are stages to technological revolutions, initially financial capital will not engage with the programme, until at a certain point there is a clear inevitiabillity to its progression at this critical point financial capital starts to plough the road. And indeed that is exactly what they are doing. There is a double edged sword here

Companies that do not embrace change are too late and die as days do – gasping for every last ray of light. Its not pleasant, but it is part of the process. As we explain in Mobile as the 7th Mass Media. And then you have the Herd.

Did Bill Liodice read our book? He certainly got one in 2005!!

ANA president and CEO Bob Liodice sounded a confident note when he likened top marketers such as Apple, Google and DeBeers to legendary inventors like Thomas Edison and the Wright brothers. They too faced daunting challenges, but took a given problem and "reframed it."

In that proactive context, Liodice reminded attendees that the event was about "transforming the marketing landscape."

That landscape is, of course, one that's increasingly taken up by digital media. One marketer in tune with the transformation, Liodice said, was American Express, a company that once spent 85% of its budget on TV ads but now invests less than a third of its dollars on the tube. Instead, AmEx has shifted its focus to efforts like a Jerry Seinfeld Webisode and its online Rewards program.

So come Bill keep up. :-)

Why has it taken so long for these wise old owls to see the light, because, because and because.

Its called Hemorrhaging Cash darling. Audience migration etc.,

I thought I would delve once again into the now dusty archives of SMLXL and found after a rummage The end of the TV schedule As Ofcom Chairman at the time Lord Currie predicted in an RTS lecture

The rapid growth of first multi-channel, then digital, then PVRs and soon higher-speed broadband are simply the pre-tremors of the real volcanic eruption that technology is about to unleash," he said at yet another RTS event. "At the risk of being over-dramatic I would say that most traditional television broadcasters are today standing about the equivalent of one mile from Mount St Helens. When it blows, frankly, that will be too close and it will be too late to run.

And everybody went yeah yeah yeah, whose round is it? Kaboooooooomb. So consider this...

ITV lost £50m in advertising revenue in 2005 and broadcaster Channel 4 predict they will go into the red for the first time in 20 years, whilst UK Online advertising surpasses newspaper and radio advertising revenues in 2006 and mobile social networking is worth $3.45b in 2006 and set to double in 2007. There are three times as many mobile phones in the world than there are TV sets. And, 5 leading media groups including ITV have seen their share price drop between –9 to –30 percentage points since January 2006.

So Microsoft have been busy busy bees

In his address, Ballmer pointed out that hundreds of thousands of people are already watching TV using Internet technology. It's only a matter of a decade's time, he said, "before the $550 billion in marketing spend will move through automated marketing technologies."

And it just so happens Microsoft is hard at work developing just such technologies, including its Silverlight and Sea Dragon platforms. Silverlight is a cross-browser, cross-platform plug-in that, among other things, enables interactive advertising layered on high-definition video. Sea Dragon, meanwhile, allows consumers to explore banner advertising and online brochures via image-zooming.

I think in fact the Ad spend is a trillion$$$ on a gloabl basis.

But some are still in denial nad believe their beloved TV ad format is just Grrrrrrrreat, as Tony the Tiger says. Hmmmmmmm. And we all know what Jim Stengel CMO at P&G had to say about that. Darwinism has rudely arrived in our media ecology. And then we have the theory of punctuated equilibrium. But don't worry the Anahauser Busch boys wont be thinking about that, they are too busy being Tyrannasauraus Rex. Raggggggggh. Great Ad, oh did anyone watch it? When push comes to pull. and Why companies are from Mars and Customers are from Venus

Comments

[Simon]

I've posted a couple of pieces on http://brandsdigitalmediaandme.blogspot.com on this topic, including thoughts on Mobile as the 7th Mass Media.
Fundamentally consumers make choices about what is important and relevant to them according to their mode and context, certainly not according to technology. Individual consumers are complex creatures and looked at in aggregate there are infinite usage segments with highly transient constituents.
This does not indicate a binary outcome of winners and losers, rather an increasingly complex world where old and new blur to become tomorrow's consumer experience.
Whether an ITV survive or die is somewhat immaterial. The global broadcast industry (incl TV advertising) continues to grow at a steady 7-10%. Not shrink.
The trends are exactly as you describe, the outcome I suspect is more complex. It is not the if, it is the how and the when that is in debate here.
Simon

[Alan moore]

Dear Simon,

Thanks for mentioning us at your blog http://brandsdigitalmediaandme.blogspot.com

It is complex which is why trying to fathom, chart and navigate to trends and forces which are all part of this process is so important.

Thx for posting

Alan

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