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« Lessons on the volatility of digital communities: MSN Video and YouTube | Main | Is our book topical or what? community sites biggest trend on the web says Nielsen »

September 18, 2006



Just because every phone sold today has an mp3 player, camera, and a bunch of other crap in it, does NOT mean that people actually USE those features of the phone to the degree people use them on content-specific devices like the iPod or Sansa players.

You are making a leap of faith unless you have access to sales figures from Verizon, Cingular, Sprint, etc. for music purchases. You claim a 1.1 to 1 ratio, but I don't see where you're getting that figure. Moreover, you're only comparing to iTunes. Add in Rhapsody and other music sites and the ratio changes.

There are also plenty of people who have both a cell phone and an iPod. In fact, I'd venture to say everyone with an iPod has a cell phone. How does that figure into your equation?

The trend I see somewhat overlaps yours, just from a different perspective. Cell phone players will overtake flash-based media players, but drive-based players fulfill a "niche" cell phones can't handle -- large media, large numbers of media, etc. That's how the market will probably shake out and that's why Microsoft's Zune may never appear in a flash-based format. They're already thinking ahead (as is Apple with their iPhone).

Just some thoughts...


Tomi T Ahonen


Thanks for stopping by and posting the comment. I hope you noticed that this blog entry is from last year, when such data was not out yet. I have now the statistics you ask for - with sources such as InStat, Nokia, Continental Research, RIAA etc reporting on music consumption and music downloads. Please read the latest update to this story - I have the link also above where i say there is an update to the story - at this link:

So yes, the numbers are out there. Not everybody with a musicphone does listen to music on the phone, but the facts are irrefutable, the MAJORITY of musicphone owners do. Read that story, the various sources and then please re-consider your position.

But thank you for posting

Tomi Ahonen :-)


A year ago this time Apple had seen 15 quarters of continuous quarter-on-quarter growth and a prediction that Apple would lose its dominace was quite a brave one (and a lonely one).

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