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July 29, 2006


Michael Markman

Are you taking "mobile" to modify every device in the FT list? Not just mobile phone, but also mobile games consoles, mobile digital media players and mobile TV set top boxes? I'm not sure that's justified. Not even sure what a mobile TV set top box might be.

Mobility is, undoubtedly, a growing requirement for the future of information, entertainment, and communications.

But don't dismiss the enduring (and growing) appeal of the big screen. Big screens provide the real estate for managing multiple IM conversations, tabbed (and/or multiple) browser windows for following links to and cross-referencing multiple websites, and the pixel-count for immersive high-definition experiences.

I expect that where people can afford both big and mobile, they will choose both and find satisfaction from both.

When in doubt about the future, refer to Star Trek TNG. Tiny hand-held PADD (Personal Access Display Device) to totally immersive Holodeck. Their net supplied all form factors appropriately.


"Right Ozzie - but wrong."

More specious attempts to turn future statements into vindications of your absurdities, but now you take it to a new level... He's saying what I'm saying if I say what he says is wrong and change some words! Now Ray Ozzie agrees with me! Silly...

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Michael and Tim

(I'm on vacation, so only responding once per week now)

Michael - the overall trend is inevitable and remarkably powerful (you may want to see earlier stats reported at this blogsite, and comments such as those from the new CEO of Google, who says the future of the internet is on mobile phones)

In three countries already the majority of internet access is from mobile phones - China, South Korea and Japan. Recognize that South Korea is also the world's most advanced digital country, with the highest penetration of broadband internet etc.

So yes, there will be people who can afford both. There will be services and applications that will live on both. But there are 3 times as many mobile phone users today as there are PC users. Twice as many people use the primary service of the internet - messaging on mobile phones (SMS text messaging) as on the internet (e-mail) and with all young user surveys around the world - from South Korea to Singapore to India to France to the UK to Sweden to now this Spring even in the USA - all teenagers prefer SMS to e-mail, and their e-mail use is declining.

The second biggest app on the web? Search? is available on most mobile networks already. Does not require fancy handsets. Will migrate fast.

The mobile internet allows instant payment - many online (PC-based) internet services already handle their payment rather than via credit cards or paypal, through premium SMS payments via mobile phones - such as on Habbo Hotel that we blog about on this site.

So yes, the very big trend is from fixed PC based internet to mobile. Even TV? Yes, a (slow) migration and this depends on the advanced digital TV broadcast handsets that are currently available in South Korea, and have been trialled in Berlin, Helsinki, Oxford; and just now have been launched in Italy, Germany, and many other trials. I'm not talking about 3G TV on 3G networks. But true digital set-top (cable TV/satellite TV) type boxes built into the phones, and the extremely high-res TV screens on the phones. When they come, we'll migrate a lot of our viewing to phones.

For young people that TV-phone will be their first, and for a long time their primary TV.

And so forth.

Tim. Thank you. Your "insights" are incredible.

Tomi Ahonen :-)


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Ethan Mudgett

I'm jumping into mobile internet, as this can make life simpler and much better. Imagine cellphones having complete and absolute access to all the data in the World Wide Web. Forget about those tablets, iPads, and laptop computers. Cellphones are more handy, and these can be carried around wherever you go.

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