The dream of the personal computer aka the world is mobile

From the Economist July 29th.

On the PC's 25th birthday, The Economist leader article says. The IBM PC helped to democratise computing. Now to finish the job.

Merchants in Zambia use mobile phones for banking; farmers in Senegal use them to monitor prices; health workers in South Africa use them to update records while visiting patients. All kinds of firms, from giants such as google to start-ups such as CellBazaar, are working to bring the full benefits of the web to mobile phones. There is no question that the PC has democratised computing and unleashed innovation but its the mobile phone that now seems likely to carry the dream of the "persoanl computer" to its conclusion

Then the FT (Financial Times) today July 29th ran a piece Microsoft sees the beginning of the end for PC's

Opening statement

Sometimes it takes an outsider tp speak the unpalatable truth that everyone knows but is unwilling to acknowledge outright. That task fell this week to Ray Ozzie the man who last month took on Bill Gate's mantle as leading visionary at the world's most powerful technology company.

Microsofts great rise is now historical as a new battle, a new journey beckons down the yellow brick road.

Ozzie said

In a previous era – the PC era – Microsoft would naturally begin with a PC mindset. We're in a new era, an era in which the internet is at the centre.

Right Ozzie - but wrong. The next era will be the mobile internet. The FT claimed that the PC's centrality to the tech world is passing. IT will be mobile phones, games consoles, digital media players and TV set top boxes shaping the future.

But - the word is mobile.

As a post note to this blog. Interestingly the big operators in the US and Europe are missing out on an opportunity - locking in, locking down, believing they "OWN" customers shows their short sightedness.

Rather than working hard to build for the future they seem stuck in a world that is more about steam trains rather than the wonders and possibilites of mobile digital platforms.

And its not just a new technology model as we argue in our book - its a new business model - its a new marketing model.

Forget what you knew and jump into the world of the mobile internet

Comments

[Michael Markman]

Are you taking "mobile" to modify every device in the FT list? Not just mobile phone, but also mobile games consoles, mobile digital media players and mobile TV set top boxes? I'm not sure that's justified. Not even sure what a mobile TV set top box might be.

Mobility is, undoubtedly, a growing requirement for the future of information, entertainment, and communications.

But don't dismiss the enduring (and growing) appeal of the big screen. Big screens provide the real estate for managing multiple IM conversations, tabbed (and/or multiple) browser windows for following links to and cross-referencing multiple websites, and the pixel-count for immersive high-definition experiences.

I expect that where people can afford both big and mobile, they will choose both and find satisfaction from both.

When in doubt about the future, refer to Star Trek TNG. Tiny hand-held PADD (Personal Access Display Device) to totally immersive Holodeck. Their net supplied all form factors appropriately.

[Tim]

"Right Ozzie - but wrong."

More specious attempts to turn future statements into vindications of your absurdities, but now you take it to a new level... He's saying what I'm saying if I say what he says is wrong and change some words! Now Ray Ozzie agrees with me! Silly...

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Michael and Tim

(I'm on vacation, so only responding once per week now)

Michael - the overall trend is inevitable and remarkably powerful (you may want to see earlier stats reported at this blogsite, and comments such as those from the new CEO of Google, who says the future of the internet is on mobile phones)

In three countries already the majority of internet access is from mobile phones - China, South Korea and Japan. Recognize that South Korea is also the world's most advanced digital country, with the highest penetration of broadband internet etc.

So yes, there will be people who can afford both. There will be services and applications that will live on both. But there are 3 times as many mobile phone users today as there are PC users. Twice as many people use the primary service of the internet - messaging on mobile phones (SMS text messaging) as on the internet (e-mail) and with all young user surveys around the world - from South Korea to Singapore to India to France to the UK to Sweden to now this Spring even in the USA - all teenagers prefer SMS to e-mail, and their e-mail use is declining.

The second biggest app on the web? Search? is available on most mobile networks already. Does not require fancy handsets. Will migrate fast.

The mobile internet allows instant payment - many online (PC-based) internet services already handle their payment rather than via credit cards or paypal, through premium SMS payments via mobile phones - such as on Habbo Hotel that we blog about on this site.

So yes, the very big trend is from fixed PC based internet to mobile. Even TV? Yes, a (slow) migration and this depends on the advanced digital TV broadcast handsets that are currently available in South Korea, and have been trialled in Berlin, Helsinki, Oxford; and just now have been launched in Italy, Germany, and many other trials. I'm not talking about 3G TV on 3G networks. But true digital set-top (cable TV/satellite TV) type boxes built into the phones, and the extremely high-res TV screens on the phones. When they come, we'll migrate a lot of our viewing to phones.

For young people that TV-phone will be their first, and for a long time their primary TV.

And so forth.

Tim. Thank you. Your "insights" are incredible.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

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