Our friend Peggy Ann Salz over at M Search Groove mentioned the diminshing utility of using demographics in marketing segmentation and targeting. I wanted to return to this topic, and argue loud and clear, that the evidence is overwhelming, that we (marketing professional) have experienced in the past few years a total shift where customer demographics have gone from utility to futility. Yes, futility. They are now counter-productive. You, reading this blog, need to start to remove all references to demographics in all of your company marketing.
What is demographics? It is consumer data based on statistics relating to our lives. Our age, our marital status, our address (typically the zip code/postal code) etc.
Demographics were a powerful way to segment and target our marketing in the last century, when we had nothing better. There are often significant statistical correlations with our address or marital status or educational achievement level or our age, to our propensity to spend on a given product or service. For example, a married home-owner with kids, is far more likely to buy home and life insurance than a single young adult or indeed a teenager. Equally a young single adult is more likely to go out partying on the weekends in the hottest clubs with loud music etc. A person with an address on Manhattan's upper East Side is likely to be very wealthy, and ten miles up North still within the city of New York, in the ghettos of the Bronx, the people living there are very likely to be very poor. If you want to promote your newest model BMW or Cadillac Escallade, it made sense to target those in Upper East Side Manhattan rather than those in the poorest neighborhoods of the Bronx.
This was all very advanced marketing in the analog era of the previous century. It was far better than Henry Ford's one car for everybody ("Any color as long as its black" about the Model T Ford, which Henry Ford actually never said.)
For a while early in this decade there were some false promises of a change. Now we know, and the change is total. In the digital interactive age of marketing, wen have seen the total shift of demographics from utility to futility.
FALSE NEGATIVES
Demographics were far better than nothing, but they were also very imprecise. When we had nothing better, it made sense to use demographics in marketing segmentation and targeting. But take me for example. What good does it mean to know that I am a man? If you sell ladies underwear, it is certainly a reasonable assumption to think, that men don't buy your product, so to focus the advertising to women, who are more likely to buy.
But this introduces "false negatives" into your customer prospects database. Tomi is a man, therefore is not customer. Now, what if I am a cross-dresser (a man who likes to dress in womens' clothing)? The demograpic data will not identify that. It is very likely that the cross-dressing man would go to great lengths to hide this tendency. Now, granted, there probably are not very many cross-dressers as a percentage of all men, but even if its one percent or one tenth of one percent, if you target by demographics, your segmentation system excludes real prospects for your business.
Its not the only false negative. It is also possible, that I am in the process of a sex-change operation. Yes, this is probably even more rare, but they do exist. What was accurate once, as a demographic measure, has in reality changed.
But we don't need to be that sensationalist, I just wanted to make a point. In reality, many men buy lingerie to their wives and girl friends as gifts. Why not? if I am excluded as a customer, while the demographic facts are correct, and the analysis fits the majority of my gender, there is a significant size of a demographicminority, which is now locked out, as a false negative.
But note, if you pursue demographics, you are very likely to use proxy data for determining the gender of the prospective customer. Like Mr Charles Smith is very likely a man, yes. So if you are in Finland, and you see Tomi Ahonen as the name, you can rather safely guess, that the person is a man. But what if you are in Japan? Tomi is a woman's name in Japan. Now, if you are in New York, and are of Scandinavian ancestry, you probably would correctly identify me as a man, but if you are of Japanese ancestry, you would almost definitely classify me as a woman.
But wait, the demographic data may be collected accureately, but the entity has changed. The house is in the name of Mr Charles Smith, but he has recently split up with his (non--married) girl friend, and it is now the girl friend who lives in the house, as Mr Smith lives with his new girl friend in Los Angeles, as he waits for his house to be sold. but the behaviour in that address today, is no longer that fo Mr Smith, it is that of his ex-girlfriend.
The exact same applies to all demographic data. Take age. Yes, we know that the youth tend to party and consume various youth services and products. And yes, on the whole, as we get older, we tend to "mature" and "settle down" and "get a life". Married, kids, home all that. Fine. Obviously there are some who never grow up (more of us among men than women ha-ha). But the more obvious part - a married 39 year old woman, two teenager kids, employed. Suddenly starts to behave exactly like a teenager 19 year old girl, same parties, clubs, nights out, text messages into the wee hours and all that etc.
What happened? She is suddenly single again, probably in the process of going through a divorce or separatation. If your system "discriminates" by age, you are missing this type of customer, totally.
Again, this is not a criticism of classic marketing textbooks. They were right, in the last CENTURY about trying to learn as much about customers as possible and then try to offer them targeted services and products. Today we have something FAR BETTER.
BEHAVIOR BASED SEGMENTATION
The only thing which matters is actual behaviour. How do we act. Not what we say we want, not what we say we would do, but the actual behaviour. And how can we capture that? Only with digital interactive services. And the most complete and rich data we get through engagement marketing methods, the tool which was first described in our book Communities Dominate Brands, the signature book for this blog.
All marketing communications will soon be behaviour based. All of it. Look at Google Ad Words. It is the first mass-market ad system that offer contextual ads. Not based on my demographics (on the whole) but based on what I did just now. If I search Nokia, it will offer me some links to phone websites. if I searched for BMW, I get cars, if I searched for lingerie, I get Victoria's Secret etc. Google does not care whether I am a man or woman searching for lingerie, if they've sold that top spot to VS, I get the Secret there, trying to lure me to visit their site, totally regardless of whether I'm a man or woman, married or single, 18 or 80, college educated or not.
This is only the beginning. You think Google Ad Words is radical, cutting edge? It is not. The internet is the 6th of the mass media. It is better than the first 5 legacy mass media, yes, and the internet has inhereant advantages over TV or radio or print or cinema etc, but mobile is the 7th of the mass media. A far more powerful platform to deliver customer info than the internet. Why? Because mobile can replicate everything that the internet can do, but mobile adds 7 unique elements that the internet cannot replicate. Mobile is a far more compelling mass media channel than the internet. And before you start to argue, Yahoo CEO Terry Semel, the next internet is on mobile. Google CEO Eric Schmidt says the same, the next internet is mobile. Why did Apple Computer drop "computer" from its corporate name when they announced the iPhone in 2007? Because the future of the PC based internet is mobile.
Understand what I mean. The TV cannot replicate the internet. A newspaper cannot replicate the internet. You cannot do Google Adwords through the cinema screen. But the mobile can replicate everything that the internet can do. Everything obviously including Google Adwords. Not just as contextual search, but mobile can take the concept much further, like I showed in the Flirtomatic First Face case study as one of 50 case studies in my eBook Tomi Ahonen Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising.
In the future, all marketing communication will be targeted by our actual behaviour, not needlessly limited by any archaic measurements of demographics. Oh, and that zip code based segmentation in New York City? Yes, there are plenty of wealthy people in Manhattan, on the Upper East Side. But there are also individuals living there who can't afford any car, far less a BMW or Escallade, take the live-in maid or au-pair for example. You can have false positives in demographics. And as to the ghetto in the Bronx? yes, it may be a stretch, but there can be drug dealers and pimps and other criminals, living in he ghetto, who have a desire to have their "bling" and be quite capable of making purchases equal to or even exceeding that of millionaries on the Upper East Side. So we get a false negative.
I don't mean these as typical but every lost sale is your marketing actually hurting you, if better methods exist. Now, I am not a cross-dresser nor contemplating a sex-change. But honestly, I am a fan of rap music. I am a 49 year old white dude from Finland. I am TOTALLY off the demographic radar to get any marketing about hiphop music. And I don't dress like them, I don't own a pair of blue jeans and I don't own a pair of flashy tennis shoes. I dress even on casual days in my designer suits and ties (and hats). If your marketing system (segmentation/targeting) makes any assumptoins about me, about my age, my ethnicity etc, it will never know to sell me some new rap music. And if your system makes assumptoins based on what most rap music fans wear, you'll never sell me another Armani or Canali. Or if you are Armani or Canali, and assume something based on my music preference, you miss me again, as a customer.
But if you remove all demogrphic filters, and only measure actual behaviour, you will find that yes,. I do buy designer clothes -suits and ties for men, not teeshirts and jeans, and yes, I do listen to rap music (and buy it), and even occasionally buy some ladies lingerie - as a gift obviously, as if you track that tendency over time, they would be for women of a different size as per my girl friend of that time.
Demographics were a powerful marketing tool in the last century. Now we in marketing need to get rid of that outdated concept, and start to market based on actual behavior. We ahve some rudimenatary methods on the interent to capture customer data. That ability is far more enhanced on mobile. And as we learn to deploy engagement marketing methods, we will get vastly more satisfied customers , as so many of the recent mobile based campaigns have proven, with 30% response rates and above! not click-through rates, response rates.
I am not in any way suggesting "spam" unsolicited unwanted intrusive ads on mobile. That is equally dumb. No, I mean the newest engagement marketing methods, using mobile and the targeted and permission-based advertising. To see more, pick up a copy of my newest hardcover book, Mobile as 7th of the Mass Media.


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