So its the summer doldrums and nothing much going on in tech apparently.. but we are having the quarterly results period and a few numbers came in.
APPLE iPHONE SALES DOWN 22% FROM Q1 MARKET SHARE ABOUT 13.4%
So Apple came in with 47.5 million units of iPhone sales in Q2 (calendar quarter ie Apr-Jun) which is down 22% from Q1 when it was 61.1 million. This gives Apple a current market share of 13.4% down from 17.9%. As always - ALWAYS - you CANNOT do Apple analysis quarter-on-quarter, you could not do that on the great Christmas quarter and you can't do it now in the bad summer quarters either. Apple can only be measured for its annual performance and its again - as I've been saying - on track to lose (modestly) market share (again) this year. And the biggest determinant to how much that fall will be, is the new phone models we will see in September. Apple is safely the second largest smartphone maker and is in no way challenging Samsung for number 1 position, what was true in 2014, and is true in 2015, and will be true in 2016, regardless of the silliness coming from some analysts from time to time. If you do want to do current analysis of Apple you have to use a statistical tool called 12 month moving average - but then you'd also need to do that for all the rivals and the industry, so yeah, I'm not gonna bother doing that every quarter. That is done automatically once per year when full annual numbers come in , and the truth is, Apple is bleeding market share annually, has been for years, and the rest of the hysteria about iPhone 6 Plus massive jump was just noise. Stay on the real numbers, you won't be misled by the hype.
Apple makes yes the biggest profits in the industry but obviously that misleading and ridiculous math used very selectively by Canaccord no, Apple did not take 92% of all profits in smartphones. Even if you look at their math, you see that their total goes far above 100% meaning in reality Apple's share is far less 'of all profits' in the smartphone business, but the silly reporting has been going on about that moronic study (which by the way included several irrelevantly small dying smartphone brands not even in the Top 10 like Blackberry, HTC and Microsoft/Lumia but not real Top 10 brands that are profitable like Huawei, ZTE, TCL etc). And normal rules apply to the comments. You may mention that Apple made profts, you cannot discuss how big the profits were, that is IRRELEVANT to the market share, as you can see, clearly, market share AGAIN fell while Apple makes hideous profits. So Apple is abandoning market share in pursuit of short-term profits and in the long term this will bite them in the ass. We will not discuss how BIG the profits were, you may mention that Apple is the most profitable company ever, but that is beyond the interests of this blog or our readers. Anyone who digs into Apple profits more, will find their comments deleted (including any other share-price related discussion). This is not a Wall Street blog this is a tech blog with a focus on the platforms and there MARKET SHARE matters, not profits. So lets move on to the biggest loser...
MICROSOFT 2% DECLINE TO 8.4M LUMIA WITH 2.4% MARKET SHARE
Now the ex-Nokia Lumia smartphone business has penetrated another record low. Up to now, for the past two and a half years before Q2 of 2015, the Nokia/Microsoft Lumia smartphone business has hovered around 3% market share. Its worst market share has been 2.5% (twice). Now we have the Q2 numbers and Lumia sold 8.4 million units down 2% from Q1 and while the market overall grew, Lumia declined. So their market share is a preliminary 2.4% which is the worst market share ever for this loss-making unit, and is the first time ever that Lumia market share is rounded off to 2% not even 3%. And this was the quarter before Microsoft announced its culling of the product line and reduction of markets where its sold and a shit away from fighting for market share and only supporting the other Microsoft businesses. So expect the fall to continue.
And lets mention the morons over at Ovum who usually are good at mobile, by some truly weird brain-fart, they decided to issue a forecast just now, that Microsoft would have 4.5% market share of smartphones by year 2020. What are they smoking? While Nokia is returning to smartphones and the Lumia unit has never reported a profit, and Microsoft now reported its biggest quarterly loss in its history, and CEO Nadella is shifting focus away from Lumia - why would Windows 10 Mobile find growth? Growth? When clearly the company is shifting away from Lumia and will soon shut down the unit? Yet idiots at Ovum promise us a market share of 4.5%? Who bribed whom? This stinks and this is VERY bad for the usually reputable Ovum who tend to know mobile well but rarely give us smartphone-specific numbers or forecasts. Are they somehow desperate now and have taken some Microsoft money? Truly bizarre forecast. Obviously I will not publish a link to promote that site, you can find the story if you want. I hate bad stats and bad math and if Ovum thinks when Microsoft itself is reducing its Lumia push, that somehow increases their share, there is something really wrong at Ovum. Shame on you!
HUAWEI VERY STRONG QUARTER
So then we already had heard that Huawei sold 50 million smartphones in the first half of 2015. Now we have heard more about it, Huawei said they've sold over 10 million per month in May and June months. So I will have to adjust my Huawei Q1 number higher and it looks like Huawei had about 27-28 million total smartphone sales in Q2, which pushes them likely to third place. Lets see how Lenovo+Motorola and LG report their performance but Huawei looking strong for 3rd ranking and about 7% market share. No threat to Apple haha yet but yes, the Chinese are growing (and yes, as I said months ago, Xiaomi is not the big threat from China. Why? Distribution... Huawei & Lenovo can take advantage of global sales, even ZTE and TCL can, before Xiaomi can set up its international distribution.
Ok will do more quarterly stats as they come in but as I said already for a long while, this industry is now settling into its normal patterns and the big exciting part of the industry explosion has gone. OF course I'll also do the full Q2 numbers when we have all the data needed for that, in the early part of August.