One Week to the End of Trump. Lets do the second-to-last Countdown to his demise. As I've already written, as Trump did not get a knock-out punch in the final debate (actually lost that one too, so he went 0 for 3 in his debates against Hillary) this election has been over for weeks now. Hillary Clinton leads the average of polling by a modest amount (due to some very questionable polls just out), but her lead in the Electoral College map is that massive, that she is coasting to an easy win. An easy win. Don't be fooled by those eager to keep the suspense going for another week. This race is done. Stick a fork in it. But again, its the weekly Countdown, so lets do the numbers.
Hillary is still up up in the RCP average by 2.2%. (That was 5.5% last week, before that 7.1%, 4.8%, 3.7%, 1.6%, 1.1%, 2.2%, 3.4% in RCP average by the 4-way polls of previous weeks). The mathematical average of those weekly averages is 3.5%. Never once has Hillary been behind on our weekly review of the latest polling averages. Not once. Both in 2008 and in 2012, Obama was behind McCain and Romney within the last 2 months. Hillary has NEVER been behind in the RCP average. There have been Over the past two months the RCP average has told is its a 4% race. To be precise, EVERY weekly average of the polling is consistent with the election being a 4.1% race. EVERY average including today, is CONSISTENT with a race that is 4.1% plus/minus 3% margin of error which is what a typical 1,000 person survey would have as its margin-of-error (many of the polls are SMALLER with larger margins of error). Today's 2.2% average is CONSISTENT with a 4.1% race. And the past two months is NOT consistent with a 2.2% race and absolutely not a 1% Race or Trump being in the lead.
Don't be fooled by a stupid ABC/Wapo tracking poll that has bizarre turnout level of white voters in this year of all years, when Hispanic voters are registering at record numbers and where all voter enthusiasm at the early voting is saying, there is a big surge of new voters, especially minority voters coming in. Don't be fooled. This race is not tight. The polling is consistent with a race result like Obama vs Romney in 2012. That nonsense FBI letter is not tumbling the race either. Its a letter about ANTHONY WIENER's emails. Anthony isn't even running for office, he was disgraced for his penis pictures and he resigned. He isn't working for Hillary either. So its a bullshit story peddled by the media who are desperate to have an exciting election to sell their news programming. They don't want to tell readers that this election is over. So we get nonsense polling like ABC/Wapo thinking only white voters will show up. And while we are on bizarre polling, lets mention Rasmussen. There have been 87 polls out about the 4-way race in the two months of September and October. 87 polls. Only 8 have said that Trump is in the lead. Only 8 polls. Thats yes, one in ten polls has said Trump is ahead. Do you go with the 90% odds or do you take odds of 10%?
But wait. Of those 8 polls that said Trump is ahead? FOUR of the eight are by ONE POLLSTER, Rasmussen! 23 professional pollsters have surveyed the race at least once in the past two months, 18 of them have never found any Trump lead. Four have each found once a Trump lead but those four pollsters have issued 13 OTHER polls in the SAME PERIOD that say Hillary is ahead. EACH of those pollsters who once found a slight Trump lead, has ALSO counted the race several times to be a Hillary lead. But 18 pollsters have consistently found NO Trump lead. And then there is bizarre Rasmussen who thinks the race is tied. HALF of their polls say Trump is ahead! Their biggest polled lead for Trump is -5% !!! When nobody else has even once found it more than -2% Trump and 18% pollsters have not found once a Trump lead at all. Rasmussen has a consistent 3.5% 'house effect' where they show a result that is favorable to the Republicans. It is consistent over the years, its calculated out by pollster specialist sites like 538 Blog where Nate Silver says the same thing. Rasmussen is a Republican Party propaganda pollster. They do not release their cross-tabs, so we cannot see what kind of bizarre mix of interviews they had (maybe they didn't ask any blacks, that would explain their nutty results) but yeah. If you want to believe Rasmussen, then they think its a 0.5% race based on 8 polls they have released. And their lastest polls says its a TIE. Now if you accept Rasmussen has a house bias in favor of Republicans, that is worth 3.5%, then yeah, Rasmussen is TELLING us the race is .. 3.5% for Hillary. This is NOT a close race. Do not be fooled by idiots who can't do math.
The actual race is for the Electoral College ie 'the map'. RCP Electoral College Map (no toss-ups) shows 305 EV Votes (was 333, 322, 340, 322, 292, 294, 311, 340) for Hillary, and 233 (205, 216, 198, 216, 246, 244, 227 and 198) EV votes for Trump. 270 is needed to win. Since last week the swingiest of the states this cycle, Florida has dipped back into Trump. So now compared against the last election (Obama-Romney 2012) Trump is up in 3 states (Florida, Ohio and Iowa) while Hillary is up in 2 states (North Carolina and Arizona). The AVERAGE of those snapshots gives 307 EV votes for Hillary and 231 for Trump. This election is very close to the Romney Obama 2012 election which ended as 333 EV votes for Obama vs 206 EV votes for Romney. Yes Hillary is poised to win every state that Obama won against Romney, but gaining two, and losing three, for a net loss of one state. The closest analogy to this race, currently, is the Obama-Romney election of 2012 - EXCEPT if you go compare the two races side-by-side, Hillary is FAR AHEAD of where Obama was at this point in time, seven days before election day! Do not be fooled by the bullshit. This race is not close.
The TV ad wars have Trump trying several hail-Mary gambits of utterly silly spending this late, in states that were never competitive to begin with, and would have needed serious effort for months. He's now up in Wisconsin, Colorado and Virginia, all states that are far too far gone to flip at this stage. The top 4 states are in exactly the same sequence by both sides, they agree by TV ad spending that Florida is biggest, then Ohio, then Pennsylvania and then North Carolina. Both sides AGREE that this is the real battleground. They show it by their TV ad spending. And Hillary is up in 2 of the four by in-state polling averages, and Trump would need to sweep all four to become President. So the latest polling in the four states that decide the race:
Florida - Trump leads by 1.0% (last week Hillary led by 0.4%, 3.6%, 2.4%, 2.8%, previous weeks Trump led by 0.5%, 0.9%, 0.2%, earlier Hillary led by 3.6%)
North Carolina - Hillary leads by 2.6% (last week Hillary led by 2.0%, 2.7%, 2.6%, 1.8%, Trump by 1.4%, earlier weeks Hillary by 0.6%, 0.7%, 0.3%)
Ohio - Trump leads by 2.5% (last week was 1.0%, 0.7%, then Hillary led by 0.5%, Trump led by 3.8%, 2.0%, 2.0%, previously Hillary led by 1.8%, and 3.3%)
Pennsylvania - Hillary leads by 6.0% (was 4.8%, 6.8%, 8.6%, 2.1%, 1.8%, 6.2%, 5.8% and 6.0%)
NOTE - Trump has to win ALL FOUR of these four states. He has never led in Pennsylvania since we started the count-down. You might make up a point or maybe two points in one week. But there is no way Trump makes up for a 6.0% deficit in Pennsylvania in the remaining week. There is not enough time. And Trump isn't even TRYING to win PA. He is campaigning in New Mexico (not a battleground state), Wisconsin (hopelessly lost at least as badly as Pennsylvania) and Michigan (which also is not a battleground state). Trump isn't even FIGHTING for Pennsylvania anymore. He knows he has lost it. He already says, he might lose. It won't be that bad, if he loses. Their internal polling has shown the same results as Nate Silver on 538 blog. He KNOWS he has lost this election. And he is NOT TRYING his hardest, on the last week, to flip Pennsylvania. Instead he goes on a glory tour of those states where his fans will adore him for seven more days, and not listen to the local Republicans in despair in the battleground states who cry about how they are losing this election.
Understand, even if Trump somehow pulled a miracle and won Florida, Ohio, flipped North Carolina where he is behind by 2.6% and flipped Pennsylvania where Trump is behind by 6.0% - he STILL WOULD LOSE. Because now Hillary is so far ahead, she is AHEAD IN ARIZONA. A red state that voted for Romney by a ten percent margin in 2012!!! Yes, Trump HAD to win all four of those battleground states to have a chance to become President, but he couldn't lose ANY states that Romney won. He is now behind in Arizona! Hillary is up by 0.6% in AZ, plus spending a million dollars in TV ads and has 130 full-time staff in Arizona to turn-out-the-vote. Trump? Has zero staff in Arizona. He can't afford it. He can't even afford to fly his plane, he has to hump to some of his events by bus. Trump TOTAL paid staff nationwide is 300. Hillary has 130 paid staff turning out a Democratic victory out of a RED STATE !!!
This race is over. Hillary Clinton is padding her lead now. She wants to pull a bigger win than Obama did in 2012. She is AHEAD at this point in polling, versus where Obama was seven days out, against Romney! Do not be fooled, this race is not close!
Lets talk briefly about the campaigns. Hillary has the largest surrogate army in history, starting with the most popular ex-President alive, Bill Clinton. She has the most popular sitting President in HISTORY, more popular at this point in time than yes, even Ronald Reagan. Hillary has Barack Obama campaigning for her. She has the most popular POLITICIAN in the country, even more popular than her popular husband, Michelle Obama campaigning for Hillary. She has her main rival, Bernie Sanders campaigning for her. She has VP Joe Biden, she has Senator Elizabeth Warren, she has her popular daughter Chelsea Clinton, she has Planned Parenthood boss popular left wing activist Cecile Richards. She has the whole Democratic caucus of Senators, Governors, Members of the House, and past politicians all stumping for her. Her campaign covers ALL of the battleground states - and yet, this week, Hillary has made time to do an event in... ARIZONA. Personally! She has sent her surrogates there before. Now she is so far ahead, she can afford to go campaign one day in AZ. Help turn that state blue.
How is Trump? The oldest living Republican President, George HW Bush, is not campaigning for Trump. He won't vote for Trump. He is voting for Hillary! The other living Republican President, George Dimwit Bush, is also not campaigning for Trump. He won't vote for Trump either. Both of their popular Republican wives - are voting for Hillary! Barbara Bush said its an idiot Republican woman who wuold vote for Trump. Thats a nice endorsement there, if you can get it, Mr Trump. And the past Republican nominee? Mitt Romney? Is not stomping for Trump. He won't even vote for Trump. The previous Republican nominee, John McCain is not willing to appear with Trump nor talk about Trump. The latest VP choice and top-ranked Republican, Paul Ryan, has not once appeared at a campaign event with Trump. But his rivals, John Kasich just was in the news, that he voted, and didn't vote for Trump. Neither Ted Cruz nor Marco Rubio are willing to appear with Trump. But over 100 past or present Republicans have said in public that they cannot vote for Trump and will be voting for Hillary instead! Trump only has his VP, Mike Pence running with him on the campaign trail and Pence seems to be running a parallel universe campaign, with an imaginary running mate. He is constantly at odds with Trump's positions. That is not how you win elections.
But lets get into the weeds. The Get-Out-The-Vote effort. Trump was in Nevada. In Las Vegas. He held a rally there. And part of the reason was to drive up early voting numbers (a symbolic effort because the math is not there to win a campaign in the modern era by holding mass rallies only), but Trump of course thinks of 'Make America Great AGAIN' so like many 70-year-old foolish white angry men, he wants to go back to a more serene time when women, blacks and Hispanics 'knew their place'. But at least as a SYMBOLIC act, to try to boost early voting, yes, he claimed to run the event to help early voting. Except the event was nowhere near a polling place. So Trump? Mr Liar, he said, oh, we have busses. There were no busses. By the time his desperately flailing team had rounded up some busses, only dozens of the thousands of Trump supporters were still left, to take to a polling place. A TOTAL WASTED EFFORT.
Lets compare. Hillary runs PARALLEL superstar events, often highlighted by rock stars from Katy Perry and Beyonce to Cher and Bruce Springsteen. She's had the Star Trek TV show casts support her, as she has had the West Wing TV show cast support her. They are running a show. When Obama or Michelle show up, they get 10,000 person audiences. SEPARATE from Hillary's own audiences or those of her VP Tim Caine or those of Senator Elizabeth Warren or Senator Bernie Sanders etc. But then what do they DO? At those events, Hillary's team has PAID STAFF circulating among the audience, collecting VOLUNTEERS. They are immediately signed up. What do those voluteers then do? They get SCRIPTS online, to make calls supporting Hillary. They gets telephone pitch scripts TAILORED to their backrgounds. So a nurse, gets a story about what Hillary does for healthcare. A retired teacher gets a script about education and about retirement. And so forth. What is more, the volunteers get PHONE NUMBERS of SIMILAR voters!!! A nurse calls a nurse, an Iraq War veteran calls an Iraq War veteran, a car factory worker calls a car factory worker, etc. This is the supercharged version of the most powerful volunteer army in any election, ever made, that Obama built in 2012. And that army reached 300,000 total volunteers. Hillary will far exceed that number. She will probably hit half a million volunteers. By contrast, so you understand, Romney in 2012 had 40,000 volunteers which was by far the largest number the Republican party had ever managed to collect.
So you say, thats what Trump is also doing. Or is it? Trump has not had full-time staff collecting names of volunteers! Yes. He sees crowds in thousands, even exceeding 10,000 often, and he has no systematic effort to collect their names or get them to sign up as volunteers. He started to collect names - by SIGN-UP SHEET. So yes, not actual people, but circulating papers in the crowd (because Trump is so cheap, he doesn't have a big organization to do this kind of things. There is no staff in most states, and Trump himself, doesn't even WANT to go visit the battleground states, their mood is too sour because he is losing). So what happened to those sheets? Nobody follows up. In fact, at some events, the SIGN-UP SHEETS WERE NOT EVEN COLLECTED. People signed up, and the pages were left there, tossed into garbage! Hillary has often as much as 50 staff at an event, circulating meeting every visitor, and asking them to sign up. And then they have immediate tools to get them started, including a smartphone app and SMS based contact to immediately get the volunteers involved. DURING THAT EVENT. Trump, throws his paperwork away. Nobody there to take those potential volunteers even in to help. This is a ship that has long since sunk, and the Captain is standing proudly at one of the lifeboats thinking he still is running the Titanic.
There is no way a campaign run this badly, can possibly catch up to, far less overtake, a campaign run so professionally. At EVERY stage of the race, past two months, Hillary has been safely ahead in the average of polling. At EVERY stage, she has held a lead in the Electoral College vote. She is AHEAD of where Obama was against Romney at this point in time. Hillary won all three debates. The only way the race could be changed is by an 'October Surprise' type of event like Sarah Palin reading all the newspapers or Mitt Romney talking about 47% or Donald Trump grabbing women by their p*ssies. But no, Hillary Clinton was not at some sex orgy with Anthony Wiener grabbing his nuts. The Anthony Wiener email story 'FBI letter' is bullshit. Its not even ABOUT Hillary Clinton.
Its possible yes, in the last days, we get some nasty surprise in this last week of the campaign. Yes that is possible. Its far more likely to be about Trump and his Putin connections, or Trump and his abuse of child labor as sex slaves, or his sexual groping, or his bankruptcies, or like haha, he is now not paying HIS OWN POLLSTER for three quarters of a million dollars of WORK ALREADY CONDUCTED. What can the pollster do? He spent weeks doing big surveys in a dozen states to get the picture for Trump. That is intense labor. And now that Trump was told, you're going to lose, he isn't paying? Talk about a scumbag. But yeah, Trump tax returns. Trump Foundation scandals. Trump illegal labor. Trump visa scandals, with his wife, with his undocumented labor. Trump and Fidel Castro, Trump and Muammar Gaddafi, Trump and Kim Jong-Un. Trump's 300 million dollar loan from Russia's Alfa Bank. Trump's 100 million dollar loan from Deutsche Bank. Trump's unknown-size loan from Chinese banks. Trump buying Chinese steel or Trump dealing with Iran. Trump is a bag of handgrendades rolling on the floor, all with their pins pulled, and we just don't know when they will explode. They all will. And some are due now, in the next seven days. This man is not winning this election but he is prone to massively underperform where the polling suggests the race should finish.
If you want to see last week's Countdown summary, its here.
The election is in seven days. I have published the definitive TV Guide for viewing the election, with the math on what states may come in early, and what that means for the race. Read this before you watch the election results. And Bookmark that page, to come back to it on November 8.
I have published my 'final final' forecast exactly 3 weeks before election day. I predicted Hillary wins by 16%. Full forecast including analysis and reasoning is on the blog of course, and please remember, I called the 2008 election, the 2012 election as well as Trump's exact Primary victory correctly and all three of those within one state of how they finished. Take my forecast seriously, its likely to be very close. My forecast of why Hillary wins by 16% is here.
To see the full race, my big all-numbers blog of the Election Scorecard of 3 October is here.
Of the Senate Race, RCP Senate Map (no toss-ups) has the race again gone one state for Republicans, at 49/50. It is very tight, with a number of states flipping back-and-forth. This change was due to polling giving Nevada now back to the GOP (that won't hold but its very tight in NV). (This race was at 50/50, 49/51, 48/52, 50/50, 49/51, 49/51, 49/51, 50/50). The Democrats' Turn-out machine will ensure this is not a 50/50 result. Hillary has moved resources already into Missouri and Indiana (states that she is not competitive in) because those resources help the SENATOR races there. The Democrats are so flush with money, the SuperPAC supporting Hillary has stopped showing Hillary ads in some states, and now only shows ads for Senators like in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. The next Leader of the Senate, Chuck Schumer of New York is so flush with cash, he has sent millions to his Senate colleagues to help in their campaigns, and so forth. Meanwhile Trump stopped sharing any money with Republicans several weeks ago, and is himself running out of money. The senate will not end up 50/50. The Democrats will have a (small) lead in Senate seats when the votes are counted.
The House Map by RCP is up. It went up weeks ago but unfortunately RCP has not updated it, so it keeps showing a safe Republican House outcome. Democrats will pick up some seats, but probably not take control of the House. Currently if the Democrats were to sweep all 15 of the 'toss up' seats for the House as well as of course winning all that RCP projects they are ahead - the Democrats would be 15 seats short of the majority in the House. If we assign the toss-ups exactly evenly, the House would remain in Republican hands by a 22 seat majority.
And finally a plug. I released my joke book. 1001 jokes about Donald Trump. I call it TRUMP vs The Seventh Steve. It runs 253 pages, has actually 1,052 jokes about Trump and 1,434 jokes in total including other, non-Trump jokes like those of other Republicans. I will release one page out of the ebook every day until election day, to give out 10% of the ebook for free. So visit this page even if you just want to see 'the daily jokes' about Trump. If you want to buy the ebook, it only costs $4.99. And yes, here is the page for TRUMP vs The Seventh Steve.