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May 23, 2018

Comments

Tester

@PWE:

"Good morning Dave, I sensed you waking up 10 minutes ago..."

The mere thought of such a scenario makes me cringe. And I'm sure I am not alone with that sentiment that it makes me very uncomfortable if my computer knew everything I do.

But overall, yes, a lot of research has been poured into AI and AR. But so far nothing stuck. And I think the reasons for this won't go away any time soon.

Wayneborean


The biggest push for AR currently seems to be the porn industry. I wrote a short story, a Science Fiction/Mystery cross about 30-35 years ago which involved using AR for sex.

Personally I don’t see any big use cases that will arise until we can move to implanted computers, but I may be overly pessimistic.

Jim Glue

Hi Per,

I have no doubt there are areas in the world that are Android first. My contention is that the most money to be made world wide is in the developed world. There isn't coming a time when iOS in the developed world is not needed. Frankly, there doesn't appear a time coming when iOS isn't the primary platform in developed nations.

I did finally find an App on Android that isn't on iOS that is making a good deal of money. Carousell - is a "flea market, Ebay" type of app. There was a magazine story on the developer on how they turned down $100 Million offer and are now worth $500 million. I checked the iOS app. No Carousell app. And yet, this is an example of what I accepted all along. Regional apps for regional needs. This app is big in Vietnam, Phillipines and the like.

Mind you, there are PLENTY of well established apps for selling your stuff on the Apple store...including eBay, Craigslist stallwarts from the web world....and a bunch of "app first, only" options like LetGo.

At this year's WWDC, Cook said there were 20 Million iOS developers. The platform is still earning more money than Google's world wide, with the gap widening. And that's only revenue via the App store itself...which I believe is much smaller than the apps given away free and monetized outside the app store (Facebook, Twitter, Uber, and all those Corporate apps)

Jim Glue

There is going to be more to AR than games and porn. Ikea is already blazing a trail where you can see a virtual representation of, say, an Ikea couch in your very own living room. Life sized etc.

I buy custom made shirts from an app that took my measurements from my iPhone's camera. A time is coming soon when I can see myself in the mirror "wearing" the clothes I'm looking to buy and how they'd ACTUALLY fit on me without me even needing to try them on or be in the physical store.

Any kind of repair, maintenance, or assembly work could be enhanced with real time, VR, laying out everything you need, allowing you to see how the repair is supposed to happen etc.

Think of medical uses. A real live overlay of medical information on the patient's body. Including history, anatomy, maybe even real time imaging?

Apple's AR kit has only been out nine months. It's being improved rapidly with the third version (called ARKit 2) was just announced at WWDC.

Of course....glasses will be coming and Apple is already working with existing AR/VR hardware makers. But, due to the powerful iPhone and iPad install base...there is a HUGE market already seeded with devices that can run the AR apps.

As for as ML/AI -- I think there is going to be more than just the virtual assistants. I like having my photo library automatically categorized for me. If I want to see pictures of a particular family member, I can...even though I never took the time to individually tag and categorize them myself.

I don't mind targeted advertising. I think it's a good thing that advertisers have more information about what I like such that the ads I see have a better chance to be about something I might be interested in. Now if only they'd improve it with AI/ML to know to NOT send me ads about a product I just bought. Yes, I was searching for grills. But I have now bought one and won't need to see grill adds for 5 years. But I might well be interested in grilling accessories, and grillable foods etc.

John A

Some big Nokia/HMD Global related news. Nokia branded phones will make a return to Argentina after 4 years. They will use a similar strategy as in Indonesia with local manufacturing of the phones.
I suppose the next logical step will be Brazil and give Motorola a serious competition there. Then Nokia will be a big player in south america again.

BennyDover

Amazons Alexa knows 12 languages, Google Assistant 26 and Apple Siri 38.
Someone can say that Apple Siri moves slowly, but that is so far from truth. Apple does Siri things from the ground up building the foundations for the future. This WWDC shows the first floor of that high rise.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

After giving it some more thought, here is what I think. What I ultimately think will move the needle, is more focus on localised services.

Unfortunately for Apple, they are notoriously bad at it. Multiple reports are coming in from China and India, that Apple is very spotty in language and the "feel" of a phone.

Looking at Apple, all countries where they have a high market share - South Korea, Japan, Northern Europe, UK, Australia and of course North America - are places where people talk, or atleast understands English very, very well.

In a country like Finland, Apple enjoys ~28% market share, while their neighbours Sweden and Norway have a shocking 54% market share. Russia has ~20% market share.

Now, correlate this to english literacy in that specific country, and you will have a very interesting graph. Of course, there are outliers, but compare the two, and a very clear correlation can be found. Interesting stuff, I have only made a quick sampling of 20 countries or so however, anyone else is free to verify this.

It's not that Apple do not try with localisation. It is that they are nowhere near as good as Google at it. Especially with domestic manufacturers (e.g. Chinese phones), Chinese android gets a whole lot better localisation - because they are made by chinese, for chinese, and without the restrictions on Apple ecosystem which means they can preinstall things like WeChat in the factory. Apple, of course, isn't as flexible.

Apple needs to step up their game here, for sure.

Jim Glue

Why are Japan and China not on your list of places Apple does very well? They are the two biggest iPhone markets after the US..,and China keeps flirting with being the largest market.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Jim: I did include Japan. Again, going by market share. Of course 11% of a domestic market of 450M yearly units means around 45M units, nothing to sneeze at - that's around one fourth to one fifth of Apples total units. But at the same time, only 11% of the total chinese market.

My hypothesis is that Apple does worse (lower market share) in countries where english proficiency is worse. Preliminary data supports that theory, but I'd welcome anyone doing a full study on this. Granted, this will be what slowly moves the needle and will not be as apparent in the english-speaking world, but yes.

Tester

@PWE:

I think your correlation can best be explained by susceptibility to English language advertisement.


@Benny Dover:

"Amazons Alexa knows 12 languages, Google Assistant 26 and Apple Siri 38."

The important question is not how many languages a system understands but how well it understands them. Quantity does not matter one bit if the results are hilariously laughable. It's better to perfect a system for fewer languages first than to heap up a large amount of work just to brag with numbers.
And when it comes to this kind of data processing I have no doubts that Google is the most capable.

BennyDover

”Meanwhile Apple has announced that they are going to deprecate OpenGL”

And this is a good thing. Apple has over Billion users and they deserve unified Metal infrastructure that is not designed by committee. Apple will take total control of hardware and the software optimitation. Yes some game developers will stay out and others will fill in. ARM based Macs are here 2019/2020. Then it is good bye Intel.

It is annoying that Apple is in the same situtation as it was first with the Motorola and then with the IBM. Intel constantly lets Apple down so good riddance.

BennyDover

”The important question is not how many languages a system understands but how well it understands them. ”

Trying to be a wiseass? First you have to be working with those languages and then you can make them better. Machine Learning you know. For me Siri works perfectly and now with iOS 12 beta excelently and this is just a start. When the developers have done their work in the next coming year it will effing amazing.

Jim Glue

Apple’s “Urban China” marketshare is far better. The difference, as always, the presence of a large middle class...not Siri's language skills.

More people actually use Siri than any other assistant (yes, according to Apple but it is believable).

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@BennyDover:

Just a quick question, is your primary language English?

If it is, you're just confirming what we have been saying about stuff... :)

@Jim:

So what you're saying is the rural areas are not worth looking into?

AnalyticsService

Meanwhile:
Every edition of Apple Watch has a manufacturing defect that makes the displays snap crackle and pop:
http://www.patentlyapple.com/patently-apple/2018/06/a-six-count-class-action-has-been-filed-against-apple-for-the-apple-watch-defect-which-causes-displays-to-pop-crack-or-sha.html

Jim Glue

Hi Per, is it really so hard to understand what I’m saying? It’s a great thing that Android has lowered the cost of computing such that nearly everyone in the world can have a computing device.

But you can’t aggreagate the entire global population into one pool and make any kind of accurate ECONOMIC predictions. The first world economies are where the VAST majority of the economic power resides. Apple's share of the developed economies is a lot larger than its share of “the whole world”. Apple ecosystem is a larger economic pie than all of Android because of economic disparity of who buys iPhones and who buys Androids.

If you live in poor Europe or poor Asia or poor Latin America or poor Africa...you can live your whole life without ever needing to consider what’s going on in the developed economies. How Americans go about financing homes and cars and how they use credit cards means nothing to Uganda, Honduras, Greece or Laos.

But guess what!? It’s even MORE true that the developed world goes on its own merry way regardless of what the poorest people in the world do. Nobody is going to stop developing for iPhones in the developed world because of anything that happens to the poorest 4 billion people on earth.

Google doesn’t care about who buys an iPhone or who buys an Android. Google cares about who uses Google’s services: search, maps, Gmail, photos and the like. Google cares about access to data for mining to keep its Ad business the most profitable in the world.

Google and Apple may spar and spur each other’s competitive drive...but Apple is not who Google worries about. Facebook and Amazon are much bigger threats to Google’s Ad business than Apple ever could be. Google makes a much higher percentage of its profits from Ads than Apple makes from iPhones.

It’s never been shown that Google makes anything from Android above the costs of developing and supporting Android. Android is like every other Google free service, it’s there for mining data to fuel it's Ad business.

So no. There is no coming iOS downfall due to ANY level of total market percentage. That some areas of the work, iOS can be ignored, means nothing. No matter how many poor billions this accounts for.

Winter

"But you can’t aggreagate the entire global population into one pool and make any kind of accurate ECONOMIC predictions"
"Nobody is going to stop developing for iPhones in the developed world because of anything that happens to the poorest 4 billion people on earth."

The elite vision of the economy. But since the start of the industrial revolution, it has been all about mass production and market share. He who can sell most items at the lowest price will in the end dominate a product category, until the competition can match them.

Especially, in computers, it is the the network effect that determine price and production volumes. As a result, Apple have always had to follow the technological path the majority platform took. Hence the move from Motorola CPUs to Intel to ARM. It was not Apple that made these CPUs viable, Apple was viable because they could use OTS hardware. And for some time now, Apple have to follow the lead of Android in mobile. The production volumes of Android are 7 times higher than of iPhones. That means the hardware manufacturers will invest in gear that is needed for Android phones, not iPhones. The same pressure creeps into the App side.

BennyDover

”Hence the move from Motorola CPUs to Intel to ARM. It was not Apple that made these CPUs viable”

This is totally wrong. Apple did not move from Motorola to Intel. They moved from Motorola to IBM and when that failed then they moved to Intel. Apple started (Apples money) the ARM (with Acorn and VLSI each of them owning 1/3 of the company) and now ARM dominates completaly the mobile market. Apple has been in the processor business very long time, but of course nobody gives them credit. Then again nobody gives a s*it. Most important thing is how excellent the A-series chips are.

BennyDover

”Apple have to follow the lead of Android in mobile.”

Apple does not give a $hit what the Android OEMs does and Android as an OS leads only to the bottom of the barrel.

Apple makes lighters and others makes matches. You can start a fire with both.

Jim Glue

lol! Mass production, yes. But that had never meant "the poorest billions" -- it meant "accessible to the middle class". In fact, the industrial revolution gave rise to the middle class. Use to be that only the rich wore nice clothes. The rise of mechanized looms and sewing machines gave rise to the middle class being able to afford to buy mass produced clothes. The POOR still made their own clothes far far longer.

If you dismiss all my theories...you are still left trying to explain the impossible. How is it that the platform that has 80% of the active install base deliver less than half the revenue to developers than the platform with only 20% of the install base? And that gap is growing, not declining. And I always add the caveat that this doesn't include ANY of the money made via apps but outside the app store (Facebook, Wechat, Line, Whatsapp, AirBnb, all the Corporate apps, bank apps, store apps, Starbucks etc. etc.)

How is it possible for these to be going on for 10 years and counting? How is it possible for Apple to continue to sell iPhones for hundreds more than the equivalent competition (as alleged here) for 10 years and running?

You can't hang your hat on "iPhone users are sheep". Even if that were true, why can't the thousands of Android manufacturers sell to sheep after all this time?

And, btw, the iPhone share of Japan has been between 40 and 60% for 10 "forever" as well, not 11%: https://www.statista.com/statistics/260415/market-share-held-by-smartphone-operating-systems-in-japan/

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Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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