My Photo

Ordering Information

Tomi on Twitter is @tomiahonen

  • Follow Tomi on Twitter as @tomiahonen
    Follow Tomi's Twitterfloods on all matters mobile, tech and media. Tomi has over 8,000 followers and was rated by Forbes as the most influential writer on mobile related topics

Book Tomi T Ahonen to Speak at Your Event

  • Contact Tomi T Ahonen for Speaking and Consulting Events
    Please write email to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com and indicate "Speaking Event" or "Consulting Work" or "Expert Witness" or whatever type of work you would like to offer. Tomi works regularly on all continents

Tomi on Video including his TED Talk

  • Tomi on Video including his TED Talk
    See Tomi on video from several recent keynote presentations and interviews, including his TED Talk in Hong Kong about Augmented Reality as the 8th Mass Media

Subscribe


Blog powered by Typepad

« Smartphone Stats: Full Year 2017 Top 10, OS Installed Base and Everything Else You Ever Wanted | Main | The Helsinki Hostage Summit, Putin’s Puppet Trump, and my Working Theory of How the White House was Sold (and joke songs at end) »

May 23, 2018

Comments

Murphy

Per Ekström

"Stupid, idiotic, moronic. ....edit...... and I hope Nokia is wise enough here, too."

https://www.techradar.com/news/nokia-x6-is-the-companys-first-phone-with-a-notch

Once again you are behind the curve.

Tester

@Wayneborean:

"The world doesn’t revolve around Innovation, it revolves around what benefits the User experiences, and how valuable those are to the User."

Essentially correct. But let's not forget that anyone who rests on this will stop moving forward so the competition will catch up and overtske eventually. Market leaders will have to stay ahead of the curve and try to find the next big thing or else they'd be seen as complacent and laggard.

So, let's say the iPhone will only make small, carefully measured improvements over the coming years to secure the profit stream. That will work as long as no competitor tries to get into the spotlight with some radical new features. Once such a feature catches on, anyone playing it safe will lose because suddenly they have nothing to compete with.

But you got good points about some examples. Who cares about ever faster phones? Unless you are a gamer it brings no benefit. People do not want faster phones, they want longer lasting batteries. And get constantly ignored by the industry. I see a huge opportunity for some upstarts here.

Jim Glue

Hi Tester,

Apple makes a boatload of profits, true...but I do not think Apple is "profit centric". They are a public US company and have to report quarterly, but they are a long range planning company. Their main measurement is customer satisfaction. They want to make products that delight their customers.

And now...a formal "I was wrong". I've long said that I didn't envy Android wireless charging. And I didn't. But now that I have an iPhone which can be wirelessly charged...I have found that I do like it. Not so much for the over night charging which is what I had in mind. But sitting at my work desk...and just placing the phone on the wireless charger. Picking the phone up to use it, setting it back down and away it goes, charging. That is nice.

It's not "dump my iphone and switch" kind of nice. But it is nice now that I have it.

Jim Glue

What innovations are likely to matter? Most likely not in the "iOS defeats Android" way or vice versa. But in the "keep a certain set of the market buying the latest phones.

Camera tech. AI fast enough to allow even more real time "fake bokeh" and other "you won't need a DSLR" any more tech. Better image quality, truer colors, quicker, better image stabilization longer zooms. Add on lenses? Definitely hoping that external flash support eventually arrives.

AR/VR - this is where all that speed is going to be needed. Eventually a companion set of AR glasses/VR headset. Maybe enough resolution on the phone to give decent vr when you put the phone in a head set holder?

On device AI/Machine learning for a smarter phone experience. There will be lots of off device AI improvement as well, but that won't be a factor driving sales of high end phones.

Computer docks that turn phones into PC's. Motorola delivered the tech too early. Don't know why Samsung isn't getting much traction from theirs. Apple has shown no interest yet...but it's just a matter of time. I believe Msft will be back with something like this.

But for making calls, texting, social media interactions and movies/tv -- $200 phones are already good enough.

Jim Glue

Did we get the official word on the market for Q1? Did the market decline?

Per "wertigon" Ekström

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYvH7Y16iUM

Vivo is stepping up their game, interesting approach. Probably won't move any needle but Sammy and Apple will probably copy some of that ASAP.

That is, Samsung will copy that this year, Apple next year at the very earliest, probably 2020 though.

Jim Glue

That's funny Per - even Vivo can't make this phone at scale at a price people can afford right now.

Yes, everyone is aiming for a bezel-less phone. I'm sure Samsung and Apple have such phones in their labs already.

Jim Glue

Let's talk about this Vivo tech demo in light of some ongoing themes. One - it kinda puts the kibosh on my "Chinese are merely assemblers" meme. This is some serious innovative work going on, even if it's not ready to release. Even if Vivo has no idea how they are going to manufacture this at scale.

It doesn't put all my theories in the trash. Somehow Vivo (BBK) has gotten the money to invest in some serious innovation efforts. I posit that it COULD NOT POSSIBLY come from ongoing smartphone operations. There just isn't enough margin (any margin) on these Chinese phones. Perhaps BBK makes money some other way. Perhaps the Chinese government is footing the bill behind the scenes.

Let's say Vivo brings this phone out at $999...could they SELL tens of millions of phones at that price range? Those who have that kind of money to spend, are they going to trust Vivo as opposed to Samsung or Apple?

How is Vivo going to break into the developed markets where the customer base exists that can buy $1000 phones? Is Vivo/BBK going to finally pony up the IP money to Nokia et. al? If they do, can they continue to sell their phones for so cheap?

It's cool to see this tech demo and that it comes from the Chinese. I'm sure that in Samsung's labs and Apple's labs the same stuff is there. But I'm sure Samsung and Apple could bring such a device to market. Time will tell if Vivo can.

And more time will be needed to see if they can make a continuous, ongoing business at the "significant innovation" level. There is a great chance that the investment won't pay off, that the device won't sell at scale.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Jim:

It was meant as pointing stuff to innovation. It is a prototype model, but as a proof-of-concept, it's interesting with their dual fingerprint reader on the screen itself for instance.

Jim Glue

Hi Per. I agree. That is some very cool tech that's in the hopper. And at least at the stage of working (or was that just a demo created by Vivo)?

I'd thought of the pop up camera myself as one of the "how to get rid of the top bezel options. You still have the need for the "always there" speaker for talking on the phone. And like the reviewer, I'm wondering how much wear and tear such a thing could take over the years.

Whole screen finger print reader? Looked really cool - if it could be made truly secure and not just "security theater".

Personally, I think Samsung's remaining chin and forehead on their Smartphones is more than good enough. That's a LOT of work trying to get rid of such a minimal top and bottom bezel.

Lee

Base

Lee?

Winter

"Lee?"

Maybe a case of Multiple Personality Disorder / Dissociative Identity Disorder . Often affects commenters that have been banned from this blog.

Tester

Like we didn't know. It was either Baron 95 or Leebase, and Leebase clearly was more likely. Nice to see it confirmed. Which makes that spammer who frequently changes names Baron 95...

Jim Glue

Lee? Must have been a "Damn You Autocorrect" moment

Jim Glue

I don't think Baron comes around any more. He's greatly missed.

Huber

Regarding innovation: Oppo will release a bezel-less phone without this stupid notch. Instead, it has a motorized pop-up camera.

https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2018/06/the-oppo-find-x-kills-the-smartphone-notch-with-a-motorized-pop-up-camera/

Jim Glue

Depending on how fast that pops up, and how reliable it is over time...could be a very cool solution.

Then again...remember all those cars with headlamps that popped up and inevitably one turned into a "winker"

Tester

Hm... Replace a kludge with an even worse kludge. That's truly innovative.

Wayneborean


As I said, the world doesn’t revolve around innovation. Consider the Motorola phone dock. It flopped. Why doesn’t matter, but it was far more innovative than making camera software better, or adding a larger camera sensor, or shrinking the bezel.

What matter is how well the user experience works. Take Symbian as an example. It had an especially cluttered and complex user interface. So did Palm. So did the early versions of Windows for phones.

Is the phone comfortable to use? Are the keys big enough for texting? Are the pictures nice? And so on.

Which is why I personally don’t see any major innovations coming until they get a phone/brain interface working. Then you’ll see some innovation!

Tester

It's clear that innovation for the sake of innovation does not work.
This is something that may only interest the geeks who have to try out anything new.

There's so many technological "innovations" that get hailed as the next best thing, because initial uptick from the geeks appears to be good, but then it all breaks down when this stuff gets marketed to the general public. (Do I need to mention Google Glass...?)

The entire Internet of Things craze also seems to be a good example where the industry's intentions and the public's reception do not appear to match. When talking with technologically knowledgeable people, I see some basic interest in this (but by no means the kind of hype the industry seems to produce) but when it comes to regular people for which a device has to have some concrete use to be of any value the entire concept only creates raised eyebrows. I guess the whole thing will be made into a self-fulfilling prophecy in the end with all appliances sold being internet capable and the concept being declared a success - but 90% of all hardware not being connected to the internet at all.

The comments to this entry are closed.

Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

Tomi's eBooks on Mobile Pearls

  • Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising
    Tomi's first eBook is 171 pages with 50 case studies of real cases of mobile advertising and marketing in 19 countries on four continents. See this link for the only place where you can order the eBook for download

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009

  • Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009
    A comprehensive statistical review of the total mobile industry, in 171 pages, has 70 tables and charts, and fits on your smartphone to carry in your pocket every day.

Alan's Third Book: No Straight Lines

Tomi's Fave Twitterati