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« Nokia HMD Comeback? First Year Finishes with 8.7 Million Smartphones Shipped and 1.0% Market Share by Year-End (Updated) | Main | iPhone Quarter, ZTE Troubles, Facebook Troubles, Nokia Come-back »

February 27, 2018

Comments

Abdul Muis

Tomi,

Nokia just introduce $85 nokia 1 android go device. This will accelerate Nokia grows in 2018

Gustavo Vera

Interesting and very comprehensive article, thanks.
Just being fussy,Opel and Vauxall are PSA brands now, not GM.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Abdul

Yeah, also the Nokia 8 Sirocco is a 'proper' flagship that will help at the top end, to drive the appeal that even for cool people who want high tech, yes, Nokia is not your grandpa's mobile phone brand haha. Also with Sirocco the company is starting to move beyond 'just numbers' as a branding strategy (smart move).

But the big news is, as you said, the 85 Euro = 99 dollar price point for a Nokia branded Android smartphone. Nokia 1 will be possibly their best seller this year... very good strategy now to expand both at the bottom end and top end of their range. This year starts well for HMD. (I'll be doing my full year estimate for HMD Nokia smartphones a bit later)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Gustavo

haha wow yeah. Shows how little I care about GM brands. Gosh. Sorry about that. Thanks! I mentioned you after correcting the story

Tomi Ahonen :-)

przemo_li

According to company behind KaiOS "To day, more than 30 million devices in the U.S., Canada, and India are currently powered by KaiOS."

While installed base show only 8 milion devices. What's the cause for a difference?

Jim Glue

14.6% down to 14.3% --- a .3% drop...while ASP rose and the top iPhone only available for the last two months of the final quarter. Not bad. Samsung sure as hell isn't doing anything close the the business Apple is in the phones Samsung wants most to sell. Samsung's sales of cheap Android phones are masking the devastation as Apple continues to lay waste to Android's premium market segment.

Mac/Windows and iPhone/Android share some things in common with some VERY different aspects. Developers never abandoned the Mac. The Mac never had anything like the developer base of Dos/Windows. Never. Not even close. When Windows eventually got good enough, some of the Mac exclusive apps came out with Windows versions...but they didn't stop making their Mac apps and for the longest time had the Mac version as the priority.

And that's IN the environment where the money to be made was far and away on Windows. The Mac apps (PageMaker, Photoshop) that were carrying the Mac were on the Mac because at the time, that's the only place they COULD exist.

The app story on iOS/Android has never resembled that Mac/Windows domain. Never. Not even close. iOS has dominated Android on apps and particularly revenue to be made since the beginning. The gap is widening, not closing even though Android has had a 4x install base advantage for years now.

Believing the third world Android apps are going to lead a resurgence of Android to the top developer supported and money making platform is like believing Spain and Greece are going to rise up and lead the world economically.

Apple's power is such that they could put out a $300 more expensive phone and NOT lose sales volume. With just 2 months out of the final qtr Apple's iPhone X sales rose the ASP of all iPhones $100.

Apple is going down the price market and will continue. Android has zero protection whatsoever. Meanwhile, no matter how many companies TRY to take on the iPhone head on...they are getting worse at it, not better.

Really happy to see HMD/Foxconn rising the Nokia brand from the grave. I don't think they are competitive at all with their "flagships" and bet the sales are dismal. But they have a solid line up and I do believe they could climb back into the top 10...maybe even the top 5. Maybe pass Apple in units sold.

We've already seen Apple's response to a maturing market. Broaden it's portfolio and move both up and down the price stack. And Apple has been able to grow it's ASP and maintain sales....surpassing all of Android in revenue, a new milestone.

What will the various Android manufacturer's due not that the entire market has flattened or begins to contract. 2018 might be a fantastic price war that will push a couple more out of the business and consolidation of other players. Maybe 2019

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi przemo

You know better than that. KaiOS is a featurephone OS. It is counted among the featurephone business like other featurephone OS platforms (like Nokia's Asha)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

BabelHuber

@Jim Glue: "Samsung's sales of cheap Android phones are masking the devastation as Apple continues to lay waste to Android's premium market segment."

Do you have a source for this? I'm genuinely interested. And I'm not talking about ASP, but a statistic with market segments, regions etc.

Falling ASPs don't need to be a bad sign after all. When BMW introduced the 1 series, the Mini and the 2 series active tourer, their ASP also went down. But no sane person recommends to BMW to go back to the 3, 5, 6 and 7 series to raise the ASP.

Teemu

Richard Yu from Huawei has said in an interview that in the future the amount of phone manufacturers will drop since in the long term 10% market share is needed for break-even and 15% for being profitable.
Apple is so doomed.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Tomi:

Something is off with your Q4 numbers, you list Apple as #2 with more units than Samsung... :)

Also, your total seems to be off, as well - or are older numbers outdated?

I get:

Q1 - 350.4M
Q2 - 356.1M
Q3 - 383.1M
Q4 - 403.8M

Total: 1493.4M

Either Q4 should be 415.9M to reach 1505.5M or something else doesn't add up.

Thank you for your services, as always. It's really fascinating watching Apples own hubris destroy themselves from the inside. Of course, Apple has the cash reserves to stick around for atleast 40 years if not more. So we will see this corpse walk a long way yet... :)

ピコ太郎

Samsung becoming more like Apple?

https://www.theinvestor.co.kr/view.php?ud=20180227000732
[MWC 2018] Samsung to shift focus after Galaxy S9 series


[THE INVESTOR] BARCELONA, Spain -- Samsung Electronics announced a strategic shift in focus at the Mobile World Congress currently underway in Barcelona, Spain, on Feb. 26 (local time), saying it aims to be more committed to developing new meaningful products, rather than being the first in everything.

Speaking at a press conference with Korean reporters after the Galaxy S9 Unpacked event, Koh Dong-jin, head of Samsung Electronics’ mobile business, noted that the tech giant had so far been obsessed with being the first to roll out new technology, but that will change now.

“We developed mobile phones earlier than Chinese firms, and we were obsessed with being the world’s first and industry’s first, rather than thinking about how this innovation could be meaningful to consumers,” Koh said. “Being the first is no longer important today, and our strategy is to launch something that consumers believe is meaningful and valuable at the right time.”

The CEO was responding to questions on the company’s roadmap for hardware innovation amid comparison with Samsung’s Chinese rivals in the fields of in-display fingerprint sensors and foldable displays. Koh confirmed that Samsung would launch phones with such technologies when it is fully ready.

Abdul Muis

@Tomi

The Nokia 1 will be 75 Euro = US$85.
(Not 85 Euro = 99 USD)

Abdul Muis

@Tomi

The Q4 2017 number and rank doesn't match
You list apple sell more than Samsung, but rank it number 2.

ChrisB

Accordig to heise (https://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/Nokia-8-Sirocco-Co-Vom-Einsteiger-Smartphone-bis-zum-Flaggschiff-HMD-zeigt-vier-neue-Nokias-3978003.html via Google translate), HMD sold 70 million phones in 2017, most of which were feature phones.


That may sound irrelevant when it comes to the smartphone bloodbath, but to me it looks like a reasonable strategy, because, for the time being, the safe revenue stream is feature phones, and even here HMD/Nokia offers attractive and innovative phones. (Personally, I'd like to see an updated successor to the 515, which is the perfect second phone.)


It remains to be seen whether HMD can use its advantage in feature phones to re-conquer the smartphone market, but I'm fairly optimistic.

Abdul Muis

@ChrisB

Engadget running a story about they want the all new nokia communicator. Which I rrally hope nokia will bring back

https://www.engadget.com/2018/02/27/the-world-is-finally-ready-for-the-nokia-communicator/

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Per

Thanks! Gosh I missed that. I was thinking of the bottom of the chart and combining Vivo & Oppo, forgot to put Apple to the top where it belongs in Q4. Thanks! Corrected it & mentioned you also in the actual article

Now as to annual stats - the annual number is not addition of our quarterly numbers (I wish it could be) but the analyst houses always tend to revise their numbers upwards, and their full year number is not the same as adding up their four quarterly numbers (their annual number is larger). I am using also for our annual number the average of the four analyst houses which gives us the 1,505.5 M = 1.51B number. The mathematical product of the four quarters is only 1,493 M as you point out.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Abdul

Yeah! (Engadget). That is also what I want haha... please yes, HMD yes, do the remake of the Communicator. Use the E7 form factor (modernized, even larger screen) and the very 'ethos of Communicator' as the ultimate smartphone. And don't worry about the cost. You can safely plan for $1,199 price tag to ensure the few you sell are profitable. This will be the tech showcase to steal all the spotlights, telling others - try THIS.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

denMike

Well, there also seems to be something off with the Brand Sales table:

7 (6) . ZTE * 54.7M 3.6%
8 (7) . LG 55.0M 3.7%

?

Jim Glue

Hi BabelHuber,

The premium segment is reported on from time to time from groups like Canalysis. I think ASP's and Unit sales are relevant together. They help debug the ridiculous notion that Apple is hurting despite unit market share.

As for Samsung, since their numbers grow while their premium sales shrink...that tells you they are selling more of the cheap stuff...and you'll see it in their ASP.

ASP is a point for analysis. It doesn't tell you everything, but it does tell you some things. If Apple were in trouble, you'd see their ASP fall. "In trouble" would mean "can't sell as many iphones as they want/need to". If Apple were lowering their prices (if not the retail price, at least through BOGO offers and the like)...in order to maintain sales...you'd see their ASP fall. Seeing their ASP's rise as their sales slightly grow or remain flat -- tells you that Apple retains tremendous pricing power.

So many here keep predicting doom for Apple precisely because Apple's ASP are so much higher than the market. If Apple wasn't strong, you'd see their ASP fall, not go up. That this situation has been running for about 4 years now...it's not some quarterly anomaly.

Now, Apple's ASP's going down due to their putting out a cheaper iPhone...wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing. And one would expect some pull back in the ASP since the highest mix of the most expensive iPhones are always Christmas quarter with Apple's annual release.

Meanwhile, Android phones have no pricing power whatsoever. Way too many companies selling the exact same thing.

Jim Glue

Hi Per. You wrote "It's really fascinating watching Apples own hubris destroy themselves from the inside. Of course, Apple has the cash reserves to stick around for atleast 40 years if not more. So we will see this corpse walk a long way yet... :)"

What is fascinating to me is how nothing can defer you from your Apple is doomed perspective.

Apple just posted their best financial quarter EVER. Most revenue, most profit. Unit sales of iPhone up when adjusted for the extra week from last year. But even if you cling to the slightly down version....that's slightly down with a jump in ASP of $100.

When you put out a new higher price tier...you are supposed to be able to sell some. But APPLE raised the price by $300 and it's the top selling iPhone model every week (at least until Apple's investor meeting when Tim Cook made the statement).

Apple's installed base continues to grow even as it's unit market share has fallen. That's because Apple STILL retains 95% loyalty among iPhone customers. And whether the "Super Cycle" ever appears...Apple has a HUGE base of presold phones. It's just a matter of how long people will hold on to their current iPhone. There is zero indication whatsoever that people are switching from iPhone to Android more than the fringe margin that has always existed and for the last few years has remained in Apple's favor (more switchers from Android).

Yes, Apple has plenty of money. Apple is still INCREASING the amount of money it is making.

This is the description of a company doing very well.

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