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February 01, 2018

Comments

Tester


@Jim Glu:

" All tech employers feel like they have trouble finding enough talent. But that's the US"

There's a clear shortage of ANY kind of programmer. That's why your job offers have to be good to get the few people out there. It's here where many companies fail.

That's not just the US. Here in Germany it's the same picture with the added caveat that many big employers make a university degree a requirement before even considering to hire someone. Needless to say, with that attitude they make it even harder to find skilled people.
And what happens right now is only the beginning. It's the result of years-long neglect to educate new programmers, instead only looking for perfectly qualified personnel. No, this is not going to end well - in fact it's a ticking time bomb that will eventually hit the entire software development industry like a thermonuclear weapon. I'm 50 right now and have been working in this field for almost 30 years. I plan to retire in at most 10 years and soon many other seasoned programmers will follow, but there's nowhere near enough young people who are into programming. It all has become so complex that it discourages young people.

Since someone mentioned the word "COBOL", that's actually a good keyword: 40 years or so COBOL was the predominant programming language in the economy. And as these things happen, large portions of the economy were rather laggard in moving on, some still working with that ancient software. Nobody in their right mind today would ever consider learning such a dinosaur language, so the demand for developers far exceeds supply and the people proficient in progamming this language can demand extortionate salaries because they are desperately needed. They are also mostly older and close to retirement so for some companies this might end up a massive disaster. Let's not hope this happens to modern programming platforms, the results would be catastrophic and far exceed some reduction in iOS software quality.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

"I suppose C++ is doomed. We have been trying to find skilled C++ developers for two years and there's clear shortage of those."

Still missing my point, I see.

iOS is a *consumer* product, requiring a good *consumer* base to survive, and have achieved market saturation. That consumer base will be eroded for every problem the iPhone has. One of those problems are the lack of iOS developers making awesome iOS ports of awesome Android Only apps.

C++ is a language used to build programs. It's success is directly proportional to it's ability to be useful to it's users (e.g. devs using C++). The two cannot be compared directly, since one is a pear and the other an orange.

You fail. Try again! :)

Tester

@PWE: It's "its" not "it's". (sorry, couldn't resist... :D)


So, about the developer shortage. Ultimately it's all connected. I think much here will depend on what employers in different fields are willing to pay as salary. A business whose life depends on getting a developer will pay a far higher price and it remains to be seen who will pay more - the big corporations for developing their in-house software or the startups building a business on the mobile internet.

Depending on what becomes more attractive in the future, one side may develop stronger problems.
Regarding mobile, all this hints at a very pragmatic solution: Make web apps! You only need to have one code base, not two, and save half the development costs and equally importantly can sidestep the stupid app stores with their ever changing rules and constant hassle with software updates. Not only are web apps faster to develop, they are also faster to distribute! The only downside is the somewhat limited UI, but even that will be solved in the future. The iOS app I am currently working on is currently being ported to the web and what I have seen so far looks great - the major downside is that it cannot do its number crunching locally, it all has to go through the server - which is the sole reason why the native app is still needed. So hopefully that will see some future solution as well - if a web app could operate on large local databases I think the main reason to even do native apps will evaporate faster than anyone might think.

But if the developer shortage continues there is absolutely no way to maintain versions for two different OSs whose creators seem to be dead set to remain as incompatible as technically possible.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Tester:

Even the number crunching should be able to be done in JavaScript in the future, see for instance WebCL. Otherwise, yes I agree with you, webapps will probably be a thing in the future and Apple will slowly be pushed towards supporting those to the best of their ability.

Incidentally, if Apple all of a sudden starts being compatible with the rest of the world, then I see no big problem with them being at 10% or 11%. The problem of course being that their profits would have to take a huge nose dive for that to even be remotely possible, which is why I cannot see that happening any time soon... :)

Jim Glu

BTW, the iPhone X is a delight. I had not intended to upgrade, so I hadn't really thought that much about it other than reading reviews. So going in with little preconceived expectations I find that the iPhone X is:

- noticeably faster
- faceId works, works fast, and is well integrated
- new UI features due to no home button, found them quick to pick up and natural in a short tie
- Amazingly better sound
- Animoji's are a lot more fun than what I thought
- The screen stands out...beautiful, clear, great blacks (remember OLED is new to the iPhone)
- nice "portrait effects" even on the selfie cam
- haven't given the cameras a real workout yet, but much improved low light performance
- notch bothered me as a concept, but in practice it's fine

All in, I feel this is the largest jump from one year's iPhone to the next. By far. Of course, it costs the most ever

Tester

@PWE:

"Even the number crunching should be able to be done in JavaScript in the future, see for instance WebCL"

From a performance point of view I agree. The problem starts when a web app needs to store several hundreds of megabytes of data locally to work. I do not think that the current infrastructure is well suited to this task. Another issue, of course, is that most of this backing code is written in other languages than Javascript and porting it over is not feasible. First there needs to be a low level intermediate language everything can be compiled into before getting deployed, both to become language independent and to reduce code size. Javascript deployed in source form is not going to cut it for reasons that have nothing to do with the language's capabilities.

Jim Glu

By the time web app technology gets there, we will have millions and millions of experienced app developers

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Jim:

No there will never be millions of iOS developers. At the most, I'd say 50-60 000 developers the next 10 years in Europe, given current educations available.

Second, if no developers can be found, companies will lower their standards and say "Fuck it" and go the web app route anyway, and iOS users be damned. So you see, the web apps are already there. Companies just need to lower their standards. :)

@Tester:

Yes, true, it's not a straight up port and there are a few problems to be overcome. But sooner or later those problems will be overcome, one way or another. It will be a bastardised, hackish version that barely runs of course... But it will run. Of that you can be certain.

There is nothing that cannot be made to resemble a nail, given enough massaging... ;)

Jim Glu

@Per - I do not think you have any kind of handle on the state of iOS support among developers. Supporting developers and building healthy developer communities is a core competency of Apple. It's not that there aren't issues on the margin, but in the main, Apple delivers the tools, the guides, the support and most importantly, the profitable market that makes developers flock to Apple platforms.

Google isn't bad at these things either, but they are still playing catch-up in providing the polished tools, frameworks and the like to developers COMPARED to Apple. In Google's favor is that you don't need a Mac and Google let's anybody put apps in it's PlayStore first...before rejecting them later. With Apple, apps are vetted first.

BUT - no matter the difference in developer support....or who you think does a better job....BOTH platforms are must-haves for anything except hyper local scenarios.

Huber

@Ordinary boy:

At no point you handle my points, instead you resort to anecdotal evidence and Blabla.

Adress the point: How should iOS get a good local base of apps when it has only 3% market share, like in India?

Have you been there at a big corporation? I have. It's Android everywhere, including managers with their shiney Galaxies. Rarely do you see an iPhone.

Not to speak of "ordinary people", of course only Android.

So yes, the wealthy in India also buy mostly Android, since all local apps are available this way. And you can still have an expensive, shiney phone. Duh!

Jim Glu

In India - who are the 3%? Are they customers that Indian app makers have no interest in reaching? If you are a bank, are you going to commission a mobile app that doesn't support those particular 3%?

So yes, if all customers were equal, you could ignore the 3% just as Windows Mobile had only garnered a couple hundred thousand native apps while Android and iOS have millions each.

Certainly it's going to be Android first for apps developed in India FOR India customers. Should any of those apps become successful and start aiming at a world audience, then iOS will be supported as well.

But I'm not sure that India is the benchmark for what to expect of mobile app development worldwide. Do you have examples to discuss. Widely successful apps (within India) that are Android only?

Tester

@Jim Glu:

"By the time web app technology gets there, we will have millions and millions of experienced app developers"

No, you won't. Programming is a profession requiring a lot of skill. You cannot just educate some random person to do it, you need someone with passion in what they do. The typical straight-from-university programmer is proficient in other areas and even getting 10000 people to learn the needed skills will be a gargantuan effort.

Also don't forget that the vast majority of actual programmers has no capabilities that will help developing for iOS. Common languages to learn first are Java, Javascript and later maybe C++. You see where this is heading? Android is at a decided advantage here because Java is the common language in use for teaching the basics of programming. To handle Objective-C and Swift people have to actively dig a lot deeper to ignite their interest, the run-of-the-mill programmer will utterly fail here.

But in the end it's all a moot point. Considering how computing tech has advanced over the last 10 years it's only a small step ahead to see a universal web-based programming platform emerge that will supplant a major chunk of what's being done with native programming these days - and that will apply to all platforms, from Windows over macOS, Linux to iOS and Android. It's simply what the industry needs. They have no interest in divergent platforms fighting for dominance, what they want is a one-size-fits-all solution that is as capable as what native apps do today. And trust me, they will get it.

ピコ太郎

@Jim Glu

The downside of Apple smart speaker solution is it apple only, canot for use other apps even in iphone.

@Jim Glu 2 (Ordinary boy)

Exacly!!! In other part of the world, you replacing iPad/iPhone with android, and iphone have no change of surviving. So, Apple 2%-3% in other country share is dangerous.

@Jim Glu 3 (DoomedIsayNofuturewhatsoever)

Programmer following the job/money. If there is no money, they will running away. While Apple seeming like winning, it's castle were building on a thin icy lake.

@Jim Glu

Was scewed to iOS. Facebook have do 180 degree U turn, and focus on android.

@Jim Glu 4 (Panaman)

Sarcasm?? Or....

Huber

@Jim Glue:

Of course apps which cater to the rich and apps for an international audience are both Android and iOS in India. These include the banking apps for most big banks in India.

Another story are educational apps like Superschool, news apps, dating apps etc. There you find lots of Android-only apps.

And this slowly but surely starts causing trouble for Apple in this market.

See here the Skillsets of Indian app developers:

http://www.businessofapps.com/guide/india-app-developers/#1

Note that these developers are also working for international customers, so they don't develop only native apps. But still, almost 70% are Android-only developers.

See, this discussion goes on for years on the comment section here, as you know :-)

But now we can study it on the second biggest market in the world.

Apple had a similar problem in 1997, when the first iMacs were released: Back then I talked to a promoter who tried to sell iMacs at a big retailer in Germany. He told me that most people are afraid that their programs have no Apple equivalent and hence rather buy a PC.

But back then Apple had Steve Jobs at the helm, who was very good at selling. AND Microsoft released Office for MacOS to help Apple.

But I don't see any Steve Jobs in India right now, and neither do I see a white knight helping Apple, like Microsoft back then...

stoplivinginthepast

"Apple had a similar problem in 1997"

Stop living in the past. Apple does not have any of the problems that it had 1997.

This is the "problem" what Apple has now:
"HP just announced it will start reselling Apple products
HP will provide Macs, iPhones and iPads under its subscription offerings"

www.techradar.com/news/hp-just-announced-it-will-start-reselling-apple-products

HP just joined the "ranks" of IBM, Deloitte, GE, SAP, Accenture and others to include the Apples iPhones, iPads, Macs in to their offerings. Why? Because the demand dictates it.

"But I don't see any Steve Jobs in India right now"
If you see him then inform us because then HE has reinkarnated. That will be news. /s
Steve Jobs has been dead for over 6 years and Apple is doing fantastically without him. Why? Because Tim Cook is managing the company extremaly well and with Steves teachings. So for your info there is a new Master in town.

stoplivinginthepast

This is the problems Apple faces today...

"Apple's iPhone X is the Instant Scapegoat for Samsung's Failure to Win OLED Orders from Chinese Vendors"

http://www.patentlyapple.com/patently-apple/2018/02/apples-iphone-x-is-the-instant-scapegoat-for-samsungs-failure-to-win-oled-orders-from-chinese-vendors.html

Barney

Yawn, another iDiot posting.

And yet again from a strictly American point of view. I wonder what will happen if Android means you get the world and Apple means you get the richest 10% of America... Because that's where things will be heading.

And saying that "Tim Cook manages the company extremely well" clearly shows some real tunnel vision.

Has it ever occured to any of the Apple fans here that all the "success" stories happen in one single country???

Huber

@stoplivinginthepast: "Stop living in the past. Apple does not have any of the problems that it had 1997."

Another iSheep who is unable to understand what he reads, what a surprise! :-)

Apple HAS EXACTLY THE SAME PROBLEM IN INDIA THAN IN GERMANY IN 1997: Not enough programs (nowadays called "apps") because of its miniscule market share. Doh!

Here is what Steve Jobs said in 1995 about the problems Apple had at this time, shortly before he again became CEO of Apple:

"...Instead of following the original trajectory of the original vision, which was to make the thing an appliance and get this out there to as many people as possible, they went for profits. They made outlandish profits for about four years… What that cost them was their future. What they should have been doing is making rational profits and going for market share."

See the interview here: https://vimeo.com/96515992

But no, this time it's gonna be different LOL!

stoplivinginthepast

Apple poised for big steps in India: Tim Cook

thehindu.com/sci-tech/technology/apple-poised-for-big-steps-in-india-tim-cook/article19452491.ece

Apple is doing lots of things in the India. But nevermind. What ever you say.


Jim Glu

Wow - how the mighty have fallen. Fallen all the way back to India as the "bulwark against the unbroken march of success for Apple".

Apple blowing out sales in Urban China even as Android sales have fallen year over year (Kantar). This pass quarter the REVENUE of the iPhone eclipsed that of ALL Android everywhere combined. Not profits which eclipsed Android years and years ago...but revenue.

Apple is working on India. Remember when China was going to be impossible for the iPhone? Remember when JAPAN was going to be impossible for the iPhone?

Just listen to the Apple Deranged folks. iPhone has 3% of the Indian market but 30% of mobile developers are working on iOS. Those are YOUR numbers about how Bad Apple is doing.

Indian manufacturers have been going to their government asking for special tarrifs and other blocks to defend their market against Apple. Why So? Because they know Apple is going after far more than 3% AND Apple is going to mop up the most profitable customers.....just as Apple does everywhere.

That 10% market share number that the iPhone is slowly gliding down towards, is not their share of the US market, but the entire world market where the vast majority of Android phones are dirt cheap and the users contribute next to nothing to the overall ecosystem.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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